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    Toward quantifying the increasing role oceanic heat in sea ice loss in the new Arctic

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    Date
    2015-12
    Author
    Carmack, Eddy C.  Concept link
    Polyakov, Igor V.  Concept link
    Padman, Laurie  Concept link
    Fer, Ilker  Concept link
    Hunke, Elizabeth C.  Concept link
    Hutchings, Jennifer K.  Concept link
    Jackson, Jennifer M.  Concept link
    Kelley, Daniel E.  Concept link
    Kwok, Ron  Concept link
    Layton, Chantelle  Concept link
    Melling, Humfrey  Concept link
    Perovich, Donald K.  Concept link
    Persson, Ola  Concept link
    Ruddick, Barry R.  Concept link
    Timmermans, Mary-Louise  Concept link
    Toole, John M.  Concept link
    Ross, Tetjana  Concept link
    Vavrus, Steve  Concept link
    Winsor, Peter  Concept link
    Metadata
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    Citable URI
    https://hdl.handle.net/1912/7835
    As published
    https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00177.1
    DOI
    10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00177.1
    Abstract
    The loss of Arctic sea ice has emerged as a leading signal of global warming. This, together with acknowledged impacts on other components of the Earth system, has led to the term “the new Arctic.” Global coupled climate models predict that ice loss will continue through the twenty-first century, with implications for governance, economics, security, and global weather. A wide range in model projections reflects the complex, highly coupled interactions between the polar atmosphere, ocean, and cryosphere, including teleconnections to lower latitudes. This paper summarizes our present understanding of how heat reaches the ice base from the original sources—inflows of Atlantic and Pacific Water, river discharge, and summer sensible heat and shortwave radiative fluxes at the ocean/ice surface—and speculates on how such processes may change in the new Arctic. The complexity of the coupled Arctic system, and the logistic and technological challenges of working in the Arctic Ocean, require a coordinated interdisciplinary and international program that will not only improve understanding of this critical component of global climate but will also provide opportunities to develop human resources with the skills required to tackle related problems in complex climate systems. We propose a research strategy with components that include 1) improved mapping of the upper- and middepth Arctic Ocean, 2) enhanced quantification of important process, 3) expanded long-term monitoring at key heat-flux locations, and 4) development of numerical capabilities that focus on parameterization of heat-flux mechanisms and their interactions.
    Description
    Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 96 (2015): 2079–2105, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00177.1.
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    • Physical Oceanography (PO)
    Suggested Citation
    Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 96 (2015): 2079–2105
     

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