Long Matthew C.

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Long

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Matthew C.

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0000-0003-1273-2957

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Preindustrial-control and twentieth-century carbon cycle experiments with the Earth System Model CESM1(BGC)

(American Meteorological Society, 2014-12-15) Lindsay, Keith ; Bonan, Gordon B. ; Doney, Scott C. ; Hoffman, Forrest M. ; Lawrence, David M. ; Long, Matthew C. ; Mahowald, Natalie M. ; Moore, J. Keith ; Randerson, James T. ; Thornton, Peter E.

Version 1 of the Community Earth System Model, in the configuration where its full carbon cycle is enabled, is introduced and documented. In this configuration, the terrestrial biogeochemical model, which includes carbon–nitrogen dynamics and is present in earlier model versions, is coupled to an ocean biogeochemical model and atmospheric CO2 tracers. The authors provide a description of the model, detail how preindustrial-control and twentieth-century experiments were initialized and forced, and examine the behavior of the carbon cycle in those experiments. They examine how sea- and land-to-air CO2 fluxes contribute to the increase of atmospheric CO2 in the twentieth century, analyze how atmospheric CO2 and its surface fluxes vary on interannual time scales, including how they respond to ENSO, and describe the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 and its surface fluxes. While the model broadly reproduces observed aspects of the carbon cycle, there are several notable biases, including having too large of an increase in atmospheric CO2 over the twentieth century and too small of a seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 in the Northern Hemisphere. The biases are related to a weak response of the carbon cycle to climatic variations on interannual and seasonal time scales and to twentieth-century anthropogenic forcings, including rising CO2, land-use change, and atmospheric deposition of nitrogen.
Detecting climate signals in populations across life histories

(Wiley, 2021-12-20) Jenouvrier, Stephanie ; Long, Matthew C. ; Coste, Christophe F. D. ; Holland, Marika M. ; Gamelon, Marlène ; Yoccoz, Nigel G. ; Saether, Bernt-Erik

Climate impacts are not always easily discerned in wild populations as detecting climate change signals in populations is challenged by stochastic noise associated with natural climate variability, variability in biotic and abiotic processes, and observation error in demographic rates. Detection of the impact of climate change on populations requires making a formal distinction between signals in the population associated with long-term climate trends from those generated by stochastic noise. The time of emergence (ToE) identifies when the signal of anthropogenic climate change can be quantitatively distinguished from natural climate variability. This concept has been applied extensively in the climate sciences, but has not been explored in the context of population dynamics. Here, we outline an approach to detecting climate-driven signals in populations based on an assessment of when climate change drives population dynamics beyond the envelope characteristic of stochastic variations in an unperturbed state. Specifically, we present a theoretical assessment of the time of emergence of climate-driven signals in population dynamics (ToEpop). We identify the dependence of (ToEpop)on the magnitude of both trends and variability in climate and also explore the effect of intrinsic demographic controls on (ToEpop). We demonstrate that different life histories (fast species vs. slow species), demographic processes (survival, reproduction), and the relationships between climate and demographic rates yield population dynamics that filter climate trends and variability differently. We illustrate empirically how to detect the point in time when anthropogenic signals in populations emerge from stochastic noise for a species threatened by climate change: the emperor penguin. Finally, we propose six testable hypotheses and a road map for future research.
Synergistic effects of iron and temperature on Antarctic phytoplankton and microzooplankton assemblages

(Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union, 2009-12-21) Rose, J. M. ; Feng, Y. ; DiTullio, Giacomo R. ; Dunbar, Robert B. ; Hare, C. E. ; Lee, Peter A. ; Lohan, Maeve C. ; Long, Matthew C. ; Smith, Walker O. ; Sohst, Bettina M. ; Tozzi, S. ; Zhang, Y. ; Hutchins, David A.

Iron availability and temperature are important limiting factors for the biota in many areas of the world ocean, and both have been predicted to change in future climate scenarios. However, the impacts of combined changes in these two key factors on microbial trophic dynamics and nutrient cycling are unknown. We examined the relative effects of iron addition (+1 nM) and increased temperature (+4°C) on plankton assemblages of the Ross Sea, Antarctica, a region characterized by annual algal blooms and an active microbial community. Increased iron and temperature individually had consistently significant but relatively minor positive effects on total phytoplankton abundance, phytoplankton and microzooplankton community composition, as well as photosynthetic parameters and nutrient drawdown. Unexpectedly, increased iron had a consistently negative impact on microzooplankton abundance, most likely a secondary response to changes in phytoplankton community composition. When iron and temperature were increased in concert, the resulting interactive effects were greatly magnified. This synergy between iron and temperature increases would not have been predictable by examining the effects of each variable individually. Our results suggest the possibility that if iron availability increases under future climate regimes, the impacts of predicted temperature increases on plankton assemblages in polar regions could be significantly enhanced. Such synergistic and antagonistic interactions between individual climate change variables highlight the importance of multivariate studies for marine global change experiments.
Assessing the skill of a high-resolution marine biophysical model using geostatistical analysis of mesoscale ocean chlorophyll variability from field observations and remote sensing

(Frontiers Media, 2021-04-06) Eveleth, Rachel ; Glover, David M. ; Long, Matthew C. ; Lima, Ivan D. ; Chase, Alison P. ; Doney, Scott C.

High-resolution ocean biophysical models are now routinely being conducted at basin and global-scale, opening opportunities to deepen our understanding of the mechanistic coupling of physical and biological processes at the mesoscale. Prior to using these models to test scientific questions, we need to assess their skill. While progress has been made in validating the mean field, little work has been done to evaluate skill of the simulated mesoscale variability. Here we use geostatistical 2-D variograms to quantify the magnitude and spatial scale of chlorophyll a patchiness in a 1/10th-degree eddy-resolving coupled Community Earth System Model simulation. We compare results from satellite remote sensing and ship underway observations in the North Atlantic Ocean, where there is a large seasonal phytoplankton bloom. The coefficients of variation, i.e., the arithmetic standard deviation divided by the mean, from the two observational data sets are approximately invariant across a large range of mean chlorophyll a values from oligotrophic and winter to subpolar bloom conditions. This relationship between the chlorophyll a mesoscale variability and the mean field appears to reflect an emergent property of marine biophysics, and the high-resolution simulation does poorly in capturing this skill metric, with the model underestimating observed variability under low chlorophyll a conditions such as in the subtropics.
Early season depletion of dissolved iron in the Ross Sea polynya : implications for iron dynamics on the Antarctic continental shelf

(American Geophysical Union, 2011-12-15) Sedwick, Peter N. ; Marsay, Christopher M. ; Sohst, Bettina M. ; Aguilar-Islas, Ana M. ; Lohan, Maeve C. ; Long, Matthew C. ; Arrigo, Kevin R. ; Dunbar, Robert B. ; Saito, Mak A. ; Smith, Walker O. ; DiTullio, Giacomo R.

The Ross Sea polynya is among the most productive regions in the Southern Ocean and may constitute a significant oceanic CO2 sink. Based on results from several field studies, this region has been considered seasonally iron limited, whereby a “winter reserve” of dissolved iron (dFe) is progressively depleted during the growing season to low concentrations (~0.1 nM) that limit phytoplankton growth in the austral summer (December–February). Here we report new iron data for the Ross Sea polynya during austral summer 2005–2006 (27 December–22 January) and the following austral spring 2006 (16 November–3 December). The summer 2005–2006 data show generally low dFe concentrations in polynya surface waters (0.10 ± 0.05 nM in upper 40 m, n = 175), consistent with previous observations. Surprisingly, our spring 2006 data reveal similar low surface dFe concentrations in the polynya (0.06 ± 0.04 nM in upper 40 m, n = 69), in association with relatively high rates of primary production (~170–260 mmol C m−2 d−1). These results indicate that the winter reserve dFe may be consumed relatively early in the growing season, such that polynya surface waters can become “iron limited” as early as November; i.e., the seasonal depletion of dFe is not necessarily gradual. Satellite observations reveal significant biomass accumulation in the polynya during summer 2006–2007, implying significant sources of “new” dFe to surface waters during this period. Possible sources of this new dFe include episodic vertical exchange, lateral advection, aerosol input, and reductive dissolution of particulate iron.
An atmospheric constraint on the seasonal Air-Sea exchange of oxygen and heat in the extratropics

(American Geophysical Union, 2021-07-22) Morgan, Eric J. ; Manizza, Manfredi ; Keeling, Ralph F. ; Resplandy, Laure ; Mikaloff Fletcher, Sara E. ; Nevison, Cynthia D. ; Jin, Yuming ; Bent, Jonathan D. ; Aumont, Olivier ; Doney, Scott C. ; Dunne, John P. ; John, Jasmin G. ; Lima, Ivan D. ; Long, Matthew C. ; Rodgers, Keith B.

The air-sea exchange of oxygen (O2) is driven by changes in solubility, biological activity, and circulation. The total air-sea exchange of O2 has been shown to be closely related to the air-sea exchange of heat on seasonal timescales, with the ratio of the seasonal flux of O2 to heat varying with latitude, being higher in the extratropics and lower in the subtropics. This O2/heat ratio is both a fundamental biogeochemical property of air-sea exchange and a convenient metric for testing earth system models. Current estimates of the O2/heat flux ratio rely on sparse observations of dissolved O2, leaving it fairly unconstrained. From a model ensemble we show that the ratio of the seasonal amplitude of two atmospheric tracers, atmospheric potential oxygen (APO) and the argon-to-nitrogen ratio (Ar/O2), exhibits a close relationship to the O2/heat ratio of the extratropics (40–70°). The amplitude ratio, A APO/A ArN2, is relatively constant within the extratropics of each hemisphere due to the zonal mixing of the atmosphere. A APO/A ArN2 is not sensitive to atmospheric transport, as most of the observed spatial variability in the seasonal amplitude of δAPO is compensated by similar variations in δ(Ar/N2). From the relationship between O2/heat and A APO/A ArN2 in the model ensemble, we determine that the atmospheric observations suggest hemispherically distinct O2/heat flux ratios of 3.3 ± 0.3 and 4.7 ± 0.8 nmol J-1 between 40 and 70° in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres respectively, providing a useful constraint for O2 and heat air-sea fluxes in earth system models and observation-based data products.
Marine ecosystem dynamics and biogeochemical cycling in the Community Earth System Model [CESM1(BGC)] : comparison of the 1990s with the 2090s under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios

(American Meteorological Society, 2013-12-01) Moore, J. Keith ; Lindsay, Keith ; Doney, Scott C. ; Long, Matthew C. ; Misumi, Kazuhiro

The authors compare Community Earth System Model results to marine observations for the 1990s and examine climate change impacts on biogeochemistry at the end of the twenty-first century under two future scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Late-twentieth-century seasonally varying mixed layer depths are generally within 10 m of observations, with a Southern Ocean shallow bias. Surface nutrient and chlorophyll concentrations exhibit positive biases at low latitudes and negative biases at high latitudes. The volume of the oxygen minimum zones is overestimated. The impacts of climate change on biogeochemistry have similar spatial patterns under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, but perturbation magnitudes are larger under RCP8.5. Increasing stratification leads to weaker nutrient entrainment and decreased primary and export production (>30% over large areas). The global-scale decreases in primary and export production scale linearly with the increases in mean sea surface temperature. There are production increases in the high nitrate, low chlorophyll (HNLC) regions, driven by lateral iron inputs from adjacent areas. The increased HNLC export partially compensates for the reductions in non-HNLC waters (~25% offset). Stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions and climate by the end of this century (as in RCP4.5) will minimize the changes to nutrient cycling and primary production in the oceans. In contrast, continued increasing emission of CO2 (as in RCP8.5) will lead to reduced productivity and significant modifications to ocean circulation and biogeochemistry by the end of this century, with more drastic changes beyond the year 2100 as the climate continues to rapidly warm.
Historical and future trends in ocean climate and biogeochemistry

(The Oceanography Society, 2014-03) Doney, Scott C. ; Bopp, Laurent ; Long, Matthew C.

Changing atmospheric composition due to human activities, primarily carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuel burning, is already impacting ocean circulation, biogeochemistry, and ecology, and model projections indicate that observed trends will continue or even accelerate over this century. Elevated atmospheric CO2 alters Earth's radiative balance, leading to global-scale warming and climate change. The ocean stores the majority of resulting anomalous heat, which in turn drives other physical, chemical, and biological impacts. Sea surface warming and increased ocean vertical stratification are projected to reduce global-integrated primary production and export flux as well as to lower subsurface dissolved oxygen concentrations. Upper trophic levels will be affected both directly by warming and indirectly from changes in productivity and expanding low oxygen zones. The ocean also absorbs roughly one-quarter of present-day anthropogenic CO2 emissions. The resulting changes in seawater chemistry, termed ocean acidification, include declining pH and saturation state for calcium carbon minerals that may have widespread impacts on many marine organisms. Climate warming will likely slow ocean CO2 uptake but is not expected to significantly reduce upper ocean acidification. Improving the accuracy of future model projections requires better observational constraints on current rates of ocean change and a better understanding of the mechanisms controlling key physical and biogeochemical processes.
Spatio-temporal transferability of environmentally-dependent population models: Insights from the intrinsic predictabilities of Adélie penguin abundance time series

(Elsevier, 2023-04-19) Şen, Bilgecan ; Che-Castaldo, Christian ; Krumhardt, Kristen M. ; Landrum, Laura ; Holland, Marika M. ; LaRue, Michelle A. ; Long, Matthew C. ; Jenouvrier, Stéphanie ; Lynch, Heather J.

Ecological predictions are necessary for testing whether processes hypothesized to regulate species population dynamics are generalizable across time and space. In order to demonstrate generalizability, model predictions should be transferable in one or more dimensions, where transferability is the successful prediction of responses outside of the model data bounds. While much is known as to what makes spatially-oriented models transferable, there is no general consensus as to the spatio-temporal transferability of ecological time series models. Here, we examine whether the intrinsic predictability of a time series, as measured by its complexity, could limit such transferability using an exceptional long-term dataset of Adélie penguin breeding abundance time series collected at 24 colonies around Antarctica. For each colony, we select a suite of environmental variables from the Community Earth System Model, version 2 to predict population growth rates, before assessing how well these environmentally-dependent population models transfer temporally and how reliably temporal signals replicate through space. We show that weighted permutation entropy (WPE), a model-free measure of intrinsic predictability recently introduced to ecology, varies spatially across Adélie penguin populations, perhaps in response to stochastic environmental events. We demonstrate that WPE can strongly limit temporal predictive performance, although this relationship could be weakened if intrinsic predictability is not constant over time. Lastly, we show that WPE can also limit spatial forecast horizon, which we define as the decay in spatial predictive performance with respect to the physical distance between focal colony and predicted colony. Irrespective of intrinsic predictability, spatial forecast horizons for all Adélie penguin breeding colonies included in this study are surprisingly short and our population models often have similar temporal and spatial predictive performance compared to null models based on long-term average growth rates. For cases where time series are complex, as measured by WPE, and the transferability of biologically-motivated mechanistic models are poor, we advise that null models should instead be used for prediction. These models are likely better at capturing more generalizable relationships between average growth rates and long-term environmental conditions. Lastly, we recommend that WPE can provide valuable insights when evaluating model performance, designing sampling or monitoring programs, or assessing the appropriateness of preexisting datasets for making conservation management decisions in response to environmental change.
Twentieth-century oceanic carbon uptake and storage in CESM1(BGC)

(American Meteorological Society, 2013-09-15) Long, Matthew C. ; Lindsay, Keith ; Peacock, Synte ; Moore, J. Keith ; Doney, Scott C.

Ocean carbon uptake and storage simulated by the Community Earth System Model, version 1–Biogeochemistry [CESM1(BGC)], is described and compared to observations. Fully coupled and ocean-ice configurations are examined; both capture many aspects of the spatial structure and seasonality of surface carbon fields. Nearly ubiquitous negative biases in surface alkalinity result from the prescribed carbonate dissolution profile. The modeled sea–air CO2 fluxes match observationally based estimates over much of the ocean; significant deviations appear in the Southern Ocean. Surface ocean pCO2 is biased high in the subantarctic and low in the sea ice zone. Formation of the water masses dominating anthropogenic CO2 (Cant) uptake in the Southern Hemisphere is weak in the model, leading to significant negative biases in Cant and chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) storage at intermediate depths. Column inventories of Cant appear too high, by contrast, in the North Atlantic. In spite of the positive bias, this marks an improvement over prior versions of the model, which underestimated North Atlantic uptake. The change in behavior is attributable to a new parameterization of density-driven overflows. CESM1(BGC) provides a relatively robust representation of the ocean–carbon cycle response to climate variability. Statistical metrics of modeled interannual variability in sea–air CO2 fluxes compare reasonably well to observationally based estimates. The carbon cycle response to key modes of climate variability is basically similar in the coupled and forced ocean-ice models; however, the two differ in regional detail and in the strength of teleconnections.
Satellite sensor requirements for monitoring essential biodiversity variables of coastal ecosystems

(John Wiley & Sons, 2018-03-06) Muller-Karger, Frank E. ; Hestir, Erin ; Ade, Christiana ; Turpie, Kevin ; Roberts, Dar A. ; Siegel, David A. ; Miller, Robert J. ; Humm, David ; Izenberg, Noam ; Keller, Mary ; Morgan, Frank ; Frouin, Robert ; Dekker, Arnold G. ; Gardner, Royal ; Goodman, James ; Schaeffer, Blake ; Franz, Bryan A. ; Pahlevan, Nima ; Mannino, Antonio ; Concha, Javier A. ; Ackleson, Steven G. ; Cavanaugh, Kyle C. ; Romanou, Anastasia ; Tzortziou, Maria ; Boss, Emmanuel S. ; Pavlick, Ryan ; Freeman, Anthony ; Rousseaux, Cecile S. ; Dunne, John P. ; Long, Matthew C. ; Salas, Eduardo Klein ; McKinley, Galen A. ; Goes, Joachim I. ; Letelier, Ricardo M. ; Kavanaugh, Maria T. ; Roffer, Mitchell ; Bracher, Astrid ; Arrigo, Kevin R. ; Dierssen, Heidi M. ; Zhang, Xiaodong ; Davis, Frank W. ; Best, Benjamin D. ; Guralnick, Robert P. ; Moisan, John R. ; Sosik, Heidi M. ; Kudela, Raphael M. ; Mouw, Colleen B. ; Barnard, Andrew H. ; Palacios, Sherry ; Roesler, Collin S. ; Drakou, Evangelia G. ; Appeltans, Ward ; Jetz, Walter

The biodiversity and high productivity of coastal terrestrial and aquatic habitats are the foundation for important benefits to human societies around the world. These globally distributed habitats need frequent and broad systematic assessments, but field surveys only cover a small fraction of these areas. Satellite‐based sensors can repeatedly record the visible and near‐infrared reflectance spectra that contain the absorption, scattering, and fluorescence signatures of functional phytoplankton groups, colored dissolved matter, and particulate matter near the surface ocean, and of biologically structured habitats (floating and emergent vegetation, benthic habitats like coral, seagrass, and algae). These measures can be incorporated into Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs), including the distribution, abundance, and traits of groups of species populations, and used to evaluate habitat fragmentation. However, current and planned satellites are not designed to observe the EBVs that change rapidly with extreme tides, salinity, temperatures, storms, pollution, or physical habitat destruction over scales relevant to human activity. Making these observations requires a new generation of satellite sensors able to sample with these combined characteristics: (1) spatial resolution on the order of 30 to 100‐m pixels or smaller; (2) spectral resolution on the order of 5 nm in the visible and 10 nm in the short‐wave infrared spectrum (or at least two or more bands at 1,030, 1,240, 1,630, 2,125, and/or 2,260 nm) for atmospheric correction and aquatic and vegetation assessments; (3) radiometric quality with signal to noise ratios (SNR) above 800 (relative to signal levels typical of the open ocean), 14‐bit digitization, absolute radiometric calibration <2%, relative calibration of 0.2%, polarization sensitivity <1%, high radiometric stability and linearity, and operations designed to minimize sunglint; and (4) temporal resolution of hours to days. We refer to these combined specifications as H4 imaging. Enabling H4 imaging is vital for the conservation and management of global biodiversity and ecosystem services, including food provisioning and water security. An agile satellite in a 3‐d repeat low‐Earth orbit could sample 30‐km swath images of several hundred coastal habitats daily. Nine H4 satellites would provide weekly coverage of global coastal zones. Such satellite constellations are now feasible and are used in various applications.
Variability in the mechanisms controlling Southern Ocean phytoplankton bloom phenology in an ocean model and satellite observations

(John Wiley & Sons, 2017-05-30) Rohr, Tyler ; Long, Matthew C. ; Kavanaugh, Maria T. ; Lindsay, Keith ; Doney, Scott C.

A coupled global numerical simulation (conducted with the Community Earth System Model) is used in conjunction with satellite remote sensing observations to examine the role of top-down (grazing pressure) and bottom-up (light, nutrients) controls on marine phytoplankton bloom dynamics in the Southern Ocean. Phytoplankton seasonal phenology is evaluated in the context of the recently proposed “disturbance-recovery” hypothesis relative to more traditional, exclusively “bottom-up” frameworks. All blooms occur when phytoplankton division rates exceed loss rates to permit sustained net population growth; however, the nature of this decoupling period varies regionally in Community Earth System Model. Regional case studies illustrate how unique pathways allow blooms to emerge despite very poor division rates or very strong grazing rates. In the Subantarctic, southeast Pacific small spring blooms initiate early cooccurring with deep mixing and low division rates, consistent with the disturbance-recovery hypothesis. Similar systematics are present in the Subantarctic, southwest Atlantic during the spring but are eclipsed by a subsequent, larger summer bloom that is coincident with shallow mixing and the annual maximum in division rates, consistent with a bottom-up, light limited framework. In the model simulation, increased iron stress prevents a similar summer bloom in the southeast Pacific. In the simulated Antarctic zone (70°S–65°S) seasonal sea ice acts as a dominant phytoplankton-zooplankton decoupling agent, triggering a delayed but substantial bloom as ice recedes. Satellite ocean color remote sensing and ocean physical reanalysis products do not precisely match model-predicted phenology, but observed patterns do indicate regional variability in mechanism across the Atlantic and Pacific.
Seasonal variation in the correlation between anomalies of sea level and chlorophyll in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current

(John Wiley & Sons, 2018-05-30) Song, Hajoon ; Long, Matthew C. ; Gaube, Peter ; Frenger, Ivy ; Marshall, John C. ; McGillicuddy, Dennis J.

The Antarctic Circumpolar Current has highly energetic mesoscale phenomena, but their impacts on phytoplankton biomass, productivity, and biogeochemical cycling are not understood well. We analyze satellite observations and an eddy‐rich ocean model to show that they drive chlorophyll anomalies of opposite sign in winter versus summer. In winter, deeper mixed layers in positive sea surface height (SSH) anomalies reduce light availability, leading to anomalously low chlorophyll concentrations. In summer with abundant light, however, positive SSH anomalies show elevated chlorophyll concentration due to higher iron level, and an iron budget analysis reveals that anomalously strong vertical mixing enhances iron supply to the mixed layer. Features with negative SSH anomalies exhibit the opposite tendencies: higher chlorophyll concentration in winter and lower in summer. Our results suggest that mesoscale modulation of iron supply, light availability, and vertical mixing plays an important role in causing systematic variations in primary productivity over the seasonal cycle.
Environmental drivers of coccolithophore growth in the Pacific Sector of the Southern Ocean

(American Geophysical Union, 2023-11-09) Oliver, Hilde ; McGillicuddy, Dennis J. ; Krumhardt, Kristen M. ; Long, Matthew C. ; Bates, Nicholas R. ; Bowler, Bruce C. ; Drapeau, David T. ; Balch, William M.

The Great Calcite Belt (GCB) is a band of high concentrations of suspended particulate inorganic carbon (PIC) spanning the subantarctic Southern Ocean and plays an important role in the global carbon cycle. The key limiting factors controlling coccolithophore growth supporting this high PIC have not yet been well-characterized in the remote Pacific sector, the lowest PIC but largest area of the GCB. Here, we present in situ physical and biogeochemical measurements along 150°W from January to February 2021, where a coccolithophore bloom occurred. In both months, PIC was elevated in the Subantarctic Zone (SAZ), where nitrate was >1 μM and temperatures were ∼13°C in January and ∼14°C in February, consistent with conditions previously associated with optimal coccolithophore growth potential. The highest PIC was associated with a relatively narrow temperature range that increased about 1°C between occupations. A fresher water mass had been transported to the 150°W meridian between occupations, and altimetry-informed Lagrangian backtracking estimates show that most of this water was likely transported from the southeast within the SAZ. Applying the observations in a coccolithophore growth model for both January and February, we show that the ∼1.7°C increase in temperature can explain the rise in PIC between occupations.

Long Matthew C.

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