Beet Andrew R.

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Beet

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Andrew R.

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On the incompleteness of the historical record of North Atlantic tropical cyclones

(American Geophysical Union, 2008-06-03) Solow, Andrew R. ; Beet, Andrew R.

There is some question as to whether the historical record of observed North Atlantic tropical cyclones prior to the advent of satellite coverage is complete. This question is central to understanding the historical trend in tropical cyclone activity and the effect of environmental factors on it. To address this question, a statistical model of the relationship between annual cyclone counts between 1870 and 2004 and sea surface temperature and the state of the Southern Oscillation is extended to allow for non-decreasing observation probability prior to 1966. The estimated observation probabilities increase from 0.72 in 1870 to 1 in 1964. Allowing for record incompleteness reduces the estimated effect of sea surface temperature on annual tropical cyclone activity.
Balancing end-to-end budgets of the Georges Bank ecosystem

( 2007-05-09) Steele, John H. ; Collie, Jeremy S. ; Bisagni, James J. ; Gifford, Dian J. ; Fogarty, Michael J. ; Link, Jason S. ; Sullivan, B. K. ; Sieracki, Michael E. ; Beet, Andrew R. ; Mountain, David G. ; Durbin, Edward G. ; Palka, D. ; Stockhausen, W. T.

Oceanographic regimes on the continental shelf display a great range in the time scales of physical exchange, biochemical processes and trophic transfers. The close surface-to-seabed physical coupling at intermediate scales of weeks to months means that the open ocean simplification to a purely pelagic food web is inadequate. Top-down trophic depictions, starting from the fish populations, are insufficient to constrain a system involving extensive nutrient recycling at lower trophic levels and subject to physical forcing as well as fishing. These pelagic-benthic interactions are found on all continental shelves but are particularly important on the relatively shallow Georges Bank in the northwest Atlantic. We have generated budgets for the lower food web for three physical regimes (well mixed, transitional and stratified) and for three seasons (spring, summer and fall/winter). The calculations show that vertical mixing and lateral exchange between the three regimes are important for zooplankton production as well as for nutrient input. Benthic suspension feeders are an additional critical pathway for transfers to higher trophic levels. Estimates of production by mesozooplankton, benthic suspension feeders and deposit feeders, derived primarily from data collected during the GLOBEC years of 1995-1999, provide input to an upper food web. Diets of commercial fish populations are used to calculate food requirements in three fish categories, planktivores, benthivores and piscivores, for four decades, 1963-2002, between which there were major changes in the fish communities. Comparisons of inputs from the lower web with fish energetic requirements for plankton and benthos indicate that we obtained reasonable agreement for the last three decades, 1973 to 2002. However, for the first decade, the fish food requirements were significantly less than the inputs. This decade, 1963-1972, corresponds to a period characterized by a strong Labrador Current and lower nitrate levels at the shelf edge, demonstrating how strong bottom-up physical forcing may determine overall fish yields.
Lessening the hazards of Florida red tides: a common sense approach

(Frontiers Media, 2020-07-09) Hoagland, Porter ; Kirkpatrick, Barbara ; Jin, Di ; Kirkpatrick, Gary ; Fleming, Lora E. ; Ullmann, Steven G. ; Beet, Andrew R. ; Hitchcock, Gary ; Harrison, Kate K. ; Li, Zongchao C. ; Garrison, Bruce ; Diaz, Roberto E. ; Lovko, Vince

In the Gulf of Mexico, especially along the southwest Florida coast, blooms of the dinoflagellate Karenia brevis are a coastal natural hazard. The organism produces a potent class of toxins, known as brevetoxins, which are released following cell lysis into ocean or estuarine waters or, upon aerosolization, into the atmosphere. When exposed to sufficient levels of brevetoxins, humans may suffer from respiratory, gastrointestinal, or neurological illnesses. The hazard has been exacerbated by the geometric growth of human populations, including both residents and tourists, along Florida’s southwest coast. Impacts to marine organisms or ecosystems also may occur, such as fish kills or deaths of protected mammals, turtles, or birds. Since the occurrence of a severe Karenia brevis bloom off the southwest Florida coast three-quarters of a century ago, there has been an ongoing debate about the best way for humans to mitigate the impacts of this hazard. Because of the importance of tourism to coastal Florida, there are incentives for businesses and governments alike to obfuscate descriptions of these blooms, leading to the social amplification of risk. We argue that policies to improve the public’s ability to understand the physical attributes of blooms, specifically risk communication policies, are to be preferred over physical, chemical, or biological controls. In particular, we argue that responses to this type of hazard must emphasize maintaining the continuity of programs of scientific research, environmental monitoring, public education, and notification. We propose a common-sense approach to risk communication, comprising a simplification of the public provision of existing sources of information to be made available on a mobile website.
CHANS : the characteristics of cost-effective policy responses for harmful algal blooms [poster]

( 2015-11-11) Hoagland, Porter ; Kirkpatrick, Barbara ; Kirkpatrick, Gary ; Hitchcock, Gary ; Ullmann, Steven G. ; Reich, Andrew ; Fleming, Lora E. ; Jin, Di ; Beet, Andrew R. ; Li, Cathy ; Garrison, Bruce ; Lovko, Vince ; Kohler, Kate ; Rudge, Katrin

A growing concern for coastal management is the choice of appropriate public or private responses to HABs as a natural hazard. Considerable efforts have been devoted to understanding the scientific aspects of HABs, including their distributions in space and time, their ecological roles, and the nature of their toxic effects, among others. Much energy also has been directed at exploring socio-economic impacts and identifying potential management actions, including actions to prevent, control, or mitigate blooms. Using blooms of Florida red tide (Karenia brevis) as a case study, we develop an approach to the choice of policy responses to K. brevis blooms. Importantly, several new types of public health, environmental, and socio-economic impacts now are beginning to be revealed, including human gastrointestinal and potential neurological illnesses; morbidities and mortalities of protected species, including manatees, cetaceans, and sea turtles; increased numbers of hospital emergency room visits for the elderly; increased respiratory morbidities in workers, such as beach lifeguards; and potential reduced K- 12 school attendance. Optimal policy responses to this hazard are likely to depend critically upon why and where a bloom occurs, its spatial and temporal scales and toxicity, and the nature of its impacts. In the face of significant ongoing scientific uncertainties, and given estimates of impacts, we find that policies to expand and stabilize scientific research programs and environmental monitoring efforts, to develop and implement education programs for both residents and tourists, and to communicate the physical aspects of blooms to the public in a timely fashion are likely optimal.
The human health effects of Florida Red Tide (FRT) blooms : an expanded analysis

( 2014-03) Hoagland, Porter ; Jin, Di ; Beet, Andrew R. ; Kirkpatrick, Barbara ; Reich, Andrew ; Ullmann, Steven G. ; Fleming, Lora E. ; Kirkpatrick, Gary

Human respiratory and digestive illnesses can be caused by exposures to brevetoxins from blooms of the marine alga Karenia brevis, also known as Florida red tide (FRT). K. brevis requires macro-nutrients to grow; although the sources of these nutrients have not been resolved completely, they are thought to originate both naturally and anthropogenically. The latter sources comprise atmospheric depositions, industrial effluents, land runoffs, or submerged groundwater discharges. To date, there has been only limited research on the extent of human health risks and economic impacts due to FRT. We hypothesized that FRT blooms were associated with increases in the numbers of emergency room visits and hospital inpatient admissions for both respiratory and digestive illnesses. We sought to estimate these relationships and to calculate the costs of associated adverse health impacts. We developed environmental exposure-response models to test the effects of FRT blooms on human health, using data from diverse sources. We estimated the FRT bloom-associated illness costs, using extant data and parameters from the literature. When controlling for resident population, a proxy for tourism, and seasonal and annual effects, we found that increases in respiratory and digestive illnesses can be explained by FRT blooms. Specifically, FRT blooms were associated with human health and economic effects in older cohorts (≥ 55 years of age) in six southwest Florida counties. Annual costs of illness ranged from $60,000 to $700,000 annually, but these costs could exceed $1.0 million per year for severe, long-lasting FRT blooms, such as the one that occurred during 2005. Assuming that the average annual illness costs of FRT blooms persist into the future, using a discount rate of 3%, the capitalized costs of future illnesses would range between $2-24 million.
A nonparametric test for change in variability using a proxy record with an application to ENSO

(American Geophysical Union, 2008-10-09) Solow, Andrew R. ; Beet, Andrew R.

A common problem in climate science is determining whether the pattern of variability in a particular process or variable has changed over time. When the modern observational record is short, this problem can be addressed by comparing its variability to that of an historical proxy record. In doing so, it is important to recognize that the statistical properties of the modern and proxy records are different. Here, a nonparametric test for a change in variability in this situation is described that accounts for this difference. The method is illustrated by testing for a change in ENSO variability using a record of an ENSO index over the period 1871–2007 and oxygen isotope records extracted from corals at Palmyra Island that cover four different periods spanning the past millennium. The results are mixed.
Testing for the potential effects of Karenia brevis on school absences [poster]

( 2015-11-15) Moore, Tamecia ; Diaz, Roberto E. ; Ullmann, Steven G. ; Hoagland, Porter ; Beet, Andrew R. ; Jin, Di ; Kirkpatrick, Barbara ; Kirkpatrick, Gary ; Fleming, Lora E. ; Hitchcock, Gary ; Drennon, Michael ; Kumar, Naresh

We analyzed a potential relationship between changes in school absences in Sarasota County and Karenia brevis (Kb) count data. Brevetoxins released during Kb blooms could be a reason for students experiencing increased respiratory or gastrointestinal illnesses, causing an increase in absence rates. We designed a map to relate the locations of Sarasota County schools and the distributions of those Kb counts with a minimum of 10,000 cell counts per liter and above. Due to the proximity of Kb counts, we hypothesized that brevetoxins could have a greater effect on the schools near the coast of Florida rather than the schools inland. Because individuals could be affected by brevetoxins up to several days after being exposed, we expected to find a lagged effect of a bloom occurrence on school absences. Using a regression approach, we were unable to detect an association between Kb counts and student absences. In some cases, the direction of the effects were opposite to what would be expected (i.e., an increase in Kb counts was associated with a reduction in the percent absent rate). The results indicated that over 70% of the variation in the school percent absent rate could be explained by the latent characteristics of individual schools (such as variations in student populations across different schools), by school week, by month (such as the effects of flu outbreaks or and other seasonal factors), and by year.
CHANS : modeling the dynamics of HABs, human communities, and policy choices along the Florida Gulf Coast

( 2015-11-19) Hoagland, Porter ; Kirkpatrick, Barbara ; Kirkpatrick, Gary ; Hitchcock, Gary ; Ullmann, Steven G. ; Reich, Andrew ; Fleming, Lora E. ; Jin, Di ; Beet, Andrew R. ; Li, Cathy ; Garrison, Bruce ; Lovko, Vince ; Kohler, Kate ; Rudge, Katrin

Coupled human-nature systems (CHANS) involve dynamic interactions between humans and nature, often influenced by and affecting the distinct dynamic characteristics of each component. We present an overview of an ongoing interdisciplinary research program focused on a specific type of systems that couple expanding and fluctuating human coastal populations to episodic blooms of toxic marine algae, drawing examples primarily from human interactions with blooms of the toxic dinoflagellate Karenia brevis from the eastern Gulf of Mexico (“Florida red tides”). We introduce a set of HAB Symposium “speed” presentations and associated posters based on multi-disciplinary research. Using extant, but extraordinary, data to specify empirical models, this program of research has focused on characterizing the influence of anthropogenic sources on K. brevis blooms, assessing the public health and economic impacts of these blooms in an exposure-response framework, and defining the choice of appropriate human policy responses to the hazard. We present examples of the generic aspects of CHANS systems in the context of Florida red tides, and we discuss also some of the challenges involved in compiling and analyzing the relevant data to support our positive and normative analytical efforts.
Salinity intrusion in a modified river-estuary system: an integrated modeling framework for source-to-sea management

(Frontiers in Marine Science, 2020-08-07) Hoagland, Porter ; Beet, Andrew R. ; Ralston, David K. ; Parsons, George R. ; Shirazi, Yosef ; Carr, Edward W.

Along the US Atlantic and Gulf coasts, port authorities and governments have been competing for access to federal funds to deepen the channels and berths in each of the major estuary-based harbors, thereby facilitating access by larger containerships. Consistent with a source-to-sea conceptualization, physical modifications of an estuary can result in dynamic changes to its water and sediment flows, resulting in new arrangements of environmental features. These modifications, in turn, can lead to redistributions of the net benefits arising from extant flows of valued ecosystem services to stakeholders and communities in the broader river-estuary system. Here, some of the implications of channel deepening in the Hudson river-estuary system were examined as a case study. An integrated analytical framework was developed, comprising hydrodynamic models of water flows and environmental characteristics, especially salinity; extreme value estimates of the occurrence of regional droughts; and assessments of the welfare effects of changes in ecosystem services. Connections were found among channel deepening in the lower estuary, increased risks to fluvial drinking water withdrawals in the upper estuary, and expected economic losses to hydropower generation in the upper river. The results argue for a more inclusive consideration of the consequences of human modifications of river-estuary systems.
The neurological effects of Florida Red Tide (FRT) blooms [poster]

( 2015-11-15) Diaz, Roberto E. ; Moore, Tamecia ; Ullmann, Steven G. ; Hoagland, Porter ; Beet, Andrew R. ; Jin, Di ; Kirkpatrick, Barbara ; Kirkpatrick, Gary ; Fleming, Lora E. ; Hitchcock, Gary

Karenia brevis is a marine dinoflagellate responsible for Florida red tide (FRT) blooms off the west coast of Florida. K. brevis contains brevetoxins, a neurotoxin that is absorbed by shellfish as well as released into the air. Brevetoxins are known to cause disruptions in normal neurological functions and are associated with neurotoxic shellfish poisoning (NSP). Previous research has emphasized the effect of FRT blooms on human health, from gastrointestinal to respiratory illnesses. However, there has been little research examining the effect of FRT blooms on neurological illnesses. There is research highlighting the biochemical effects of brevetoxins on mammalian nervous systems, so these symptoms can be matched to hospital codes that describe a hospital patient’s affliction. With these hospitalization codes, it is possible to study the relationship between FRT blooms and the occurrence of neurological illnesses in affected counties. The hospital data consists of inpatient data from 1988-2010 and emergency room data from 2005-2010. We will also use data containing K. brevis cells per liter as a measure of red tide occurrences.
Natural and unnatural oil slicks in the Gulf of Mexico

(John Wiley & Sons, 2015-12-28) MacDonald, Ian R. ; Garcia-Pineda, Oscar ; Beet, Andrew R. ; Daneshgar Asl, Samira ; Feng, Lian ; Graettinger, George D. ; French-McCay, Deborah P. ; Holmes, James ; Hu, Chuanmin ; Huffer, Fred W. ; Leifer, Ira ; Muller-Karger, Frank E. ; Solow, Andrew R. ; Silva, M. ; Swayze, Gregg A.

When wind speeds are 2–10 m s−1, reflective contrasts in the ocean surface make oil slicks visible to synthetic aperture radar (SAR) under all sky conditions. Neural network analysis of satellite SAR images quantified the magnitude and distribution of surface oil in the Gulf of Mexico from persistent, natural seeps and from the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) discharge. This analysis identified 914 natural oil seep zones across the entire Gulf of Mexico in pre-2010 data. Their ∼0.1 µm slicks covered an aggregated average of 775 km2. Assuming an average volume of 77.5 m3 over an 8–24 h lifespan per oil slick, the floating oil indicates a surface flux of 2.5–9.4 × 104 m3 yr−1. Oil from natural slicks was regionally concentrated: 68%, 25%, 7%, and <1% of the total was observed in the NW, SW, NE, and SE Gulf, respectively. This reflects differences in basin history and hydrocarbon generation. SAR images from 2010 showed that the 87 day DWH discharge produced a surface-oil footprint fundamentally different from background seepage, with an average ocean area of 11,200 km2 (SD 5028) and a volume of 22,600 m3 (SD 5411). Peak magnitudes of oil were detected during equivalent, ∼14 day intervals around 23 May and 18 June, when wind speeds remained <5 m s−1. Over this interval, aggregated volume of floating oil decreased by 21%; area covered increased by 49% (p < 0.1), potentially altering its ecological impact. The most likely causes were increased applications of dispersant and surface burning operations.
Testing for a shift in a species boundary

( 2013-12-09) Solow, Andrew R. ; Beet, Andrew R. ; Roll, Uri ; Stone, Lewi

One predicted impact of climate change is a poleward shift in the boundaries of species ranges. Existing methods for identifying such a boundary shift based on changes in the observed pattern of occupancy within a grid of cells are sensitive to changes in the overall rate of sightings and their latitudinal distribution that are unconnected to a boundary shift. A formal test for a boundary shift is described that allows for such changes. The test is applied to detect northward shifts in the northern boundary of the Essex skipper butterfly and the European goldfinch in Great Britain. A shift is detected in the latter case but not in the former. Results from a simulation study are presented showing that the test performs well.

Beet Andrew R.

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