A nonparametric test for change in variability using a proxy record with an application to ENSO

Thumbnail Image
Date
2008-10-09
Authors
Solow, Andrew R.
Beet, Andrew R.
Linked Authors
Alternative Title
Date Created
Location
DOI
10.1029/2008GL035400
Related Materials
Replaces
Replaced By
Keywords
ENSO
Proxy record
Abstract
A common problem in climate science is determining whether the pattern of variability in a particular process or variable has changed over time. When the modern observational record is short, this problem can be addressed by comparing its variability to that of an historical proxy record. In doing so, it is important to recognize that the statistical properties of the modern and proxy records are different. Here, a nonparametric test for a change in variability in this situation is described that accounts for this difference. The method is illustrated by testing for a change in ENSO variability using a record of an ENSO index over the period 1871–2007 and oxygen isotope records extracted from corals at Palmyra Island that cover four different periods spanning the past millennium. The results are mixed.
Description
Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2008. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 35 (2008): L19708, doi:10.1029/2008GL035400.
Embargo Date
Citation
Geophysical Research Letters 35 (2008); L19708
Cruises
Cruise ID
Cruise DOI
Vessel Name