Proshutinsky Andrey

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Proshutinsky

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Andrey

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0000-0003-3087-1934

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Preface to special section on Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (AOMIP) Studies and Results

(American Geophysical Union, 2007-04-26) Proshutinsky, Andrey ; Kowalik, Zygmunt
Investigation of the summer Kara Sea circulation employing a variational data assimilation technique

(American Geophysical Union, 2007-04-06) Panteleev, G. ; Proshutinsky, Andrey ; Kulakov, M. ; Nechaev, D. A. ; Maslowski, Wieslaw

The summer circulations and hydrographic fields of the Kara Sea are reconstructed for mean, positive and negative Arctic Oscillation regimes employing a variational data assimilation technique which provides the best fit of reconstructed fields to climatological data and satisfies dynamical and kinematic constraints of a quasi-stationary primitive equation ocean circulation model. The reconstructed circulations agree well with the measurements and are characterized by inflow of 0.63, 0.8, 0.51 Sv through Kara Gate and 1.18, 1.1, 1.12 Sv between Novaya Zemlya and Franz Josef Land, for mean climatologic conditions, positive and negative AO indexes, respectively. The major regions of water outflow for these regimes are the St. Anna Trough (1.17, 1.21, 1.34 Sv) and Vilkitsky/Shokalsky Straits (0.52, 0.7, 0.51 Sv). The optimized velocity pattern for the mean climatological summer reveals a strong anticyclonic circulation in the central part of the Kara Sea (Region of Fresh Water Inflow, ROFI zone) and is confirmed by ADCP surveys and laboratory modeling. This circulation is well pronounced for both high and low AO phases, but in the positive AO phase it is shifted approximately 200 km west relatively to its climatological center. During the negative AO phase the ROFI locaion is close to its climatological position. The results of the variational data assimilation approach were compared with the simulated data from the Hamburg Shelf Ocean Model (HAMSOM) and Naval Postgraduate School 18 km resolution (NPS-18) model to validate these models.
Pacific Ocean inflow : influence on catastrophic reduction of sea ice cover in the Arctic Ocean

(American Geophysical Union, 2006-04-21) Shimada, Koji ; Kamoshida, Takashi ; Itoh, Motoyo ; Nishino, Shigeto ; Carmack, Eddy C. ; McLaughlin, Fiona A. ; Zimmermann, Sarah ; Proshutinsky, Andrey

The spatial pattern of recent ice reduction in the Arctic Ocean is similar to the distribution of warm Pacific Summer Water (PSW) that interflows the upper portion of halocline in the southern Canada Basin. Increases in PSW temperature in the basin are also well-correlated with the onset of sea-ice reduction that began in the late 1990s. However, increases in PSW temperature in the basin do not correlate with the temperature of upstream source water in the northeastern Bering Sea, suggesting that there is another mechanism which controls these concurrent changes in ice cover and upper ocean temperature. We propose a feedback mechanism whereby the delayed sea-ice formation in early winter, which began in 1997/1998, reduced internal ice stresses and thus allowed a more efficient coupling of anticyclonic wind forcing to the upper ocean. This, in turn, increased the flux of warm PSW into the basin and caused the catastrophic changes.
Design and operation of automated ice-tethered profilers for real-time seawater observations in the polar oceans

(Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, 2006-06) Krishfield, Richard A. ; Doherty, Kenneth W. ; Frye, Daniel E. ; Hammar, Terence R. ; Kemp, John N. ; Peters, Donald B. ; Proshutinsky, Andrey ; Toole, John M. ; von der Heydt, Keith

An automated, easily-deployed Ice-Tethered Profiler (ITP) has been developed for deployment on perennial sea ice in polar oceans to measure changes in upper ocean temperature and salinity in all seasons. The ITP system consists of three components: a surface instrument that sits atop an ice floe, a weighted, plastic-jacketed wire-rope tether of arbitrary length (up to 800 m) suspended from the surface instrument, and an instrumented underwater unit that profiles up and down the wire tether. The profiling underwater unit is similar in shape and dimension to an ARGO float except that the float's variable-buoyancy system is replaced with a traction drive unit. Deployment of ITPs may be conducted either from ice caps or icebreakers, utilizing a self contained tripod/winch system that requires no power. Careful selection of an appropriate multiyear ice floe is needed to prolong the lifetime of the system (up to 3 years depending on the profiling schedule). Shortly after deployment, each ITP begins profiling the water column at its programmed sampling interval. After each acquired temperature and salinity profile, the underwater unit (PROCON) transfers the data and engineering files using an inductive modem to the surface controller (SURFCON). SURFCON also accumulates battery voltages, buoy temperature, and locations from GPS at specified intervals in status files, and queues that information for transmission at the start of each new day. At frequent intervals, an Iridium satellite transceiver in the surface package calls and transmits queued status and CTD data files onto a WHOI logger computer, which are subsequently processed and displayed in near-real time at http://www.whoi.edu/itp. In 2004 and 2005, three ITP prototypes were deployed in the Arctic Ocean. Each system was programmed with accelerated sampling schedules of multiple one-way traverses per day between 10 and 750-760 m depth in order to quickly evaluate endurance and component fatigue. Two of the ITPs are continuing to function after more than 10 months and 1200 profiles. Larger motor currents are observed at times of fast ice floe motion when larger wire angles develop and drag forces on the profiler are increased. The CTD profile data so far obtained document interesting spatial variations in the major water masses of the Beaufort Gyre, show the double-diffusive thermohaline staircase that lies above the warm, salty Atlantic layer, and many mesoscale eddys. Deployed together with CRREL Ice Mass Balance (IMB) buoys, these ITP systems also operate as part of an Ice Based Observatory (IBO). Data returned from an array of IBOs within an Arctic Observing Network will provide valuable real time observations, support studies of ocean processes, and facilitate numerical model initialization and validation.
Remote climate forcing of decadal-scale regime shifts in Northwest Atlantic shelf ecosystems

(Association for the Sciences of Limnology and Oceanography, 2013-05) Greene, Charles H. ; Meyer-Gutbrod, Erin ; Monger, Bruce C. ; McGarry, Louise P. ; Pershing, Andrew J. ; Belkin, Igor M. ; Fratantoni, Paula S. ; Mountain, David G. ; Pickart, Robert S. ; Proshutinsky, Andrey ; Ji, Rubao ; Bisagni, James J. ; Hakkinen, Sirpa M. A. ; Haidvogel, Dale B. ; Wang, Jia ; Head, Erica ; Smith, Peter ; Reid, Philip C. ; Conversi, Alessandra

Decadal-scale regime shifts in Northwest Atlantic shelf ecosystems can be remotely forced by climate-associated atmosphere–ocean interactions in the North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean Basins. This remote climate forcing is mediated primarily by basin- and hemispheric-scale changes in ocean circulation. We review and synthesize results from process-oriented field studies and retrospective analyses of time-series data to document the linkages between climate, ocean circulation, and ecosystem dynamics. Bottom-up forcing associated with climate plays a prominent role in the dynamics of these ecosystems, comparable in importance to that of top-down forcing associated with commercial fishing. A broad perspective, one encompassing the effects of basin- and hemispheric-scale climate processes on marine ecosystems, will be critical to the sustainable management of marine living resources in the Northwest Atlantic.
Sea ice drift in the Arctic since the 1950s

(American Geophysical Union, 2008-10-03) Hakkinen, Sirpa M. A. ; Proshutinsky, Andrey ; Ashik, Igor M.

Sea ice drift data (from Russian North Pole stations, various ice camps, and the International Arctic Buoy Program) and surface wind stress data from the NCAR/NCEP Reanalysis are analyzed to determine their long-term trends and causality. The study finds that both parameters (ice drift and wind stress) show gradual acceleration over last 50 years. Significant positive trends are present in both winter and summer data. The major cause of observed positive trends is increasing Arctic storm activity over the Transpolar Drift Stream caused by a shift of storm tracks toward higher latitudes. It is speculated, with some observational evidence, that the increased stirring of the ocean by winds could hasten the transition of the Arctic toward a weakly stratified ocean with a potential for deep convection and a new sink for atmospheric CO2.
Penetration of the 1990s warm temperature anomaly of Atlantic Water in the Canada Basin

(American Geophysical Union, 2004-10-16) Shimada, Koji ; McLaughlin, Fiona A. ; Carmack, Eddy C. ; Proshutinsky, Andrey ; Nishino, Shigeto ; Itoh, Motoyo

Penetration of the 1990s warm temperature anomaly (WTA) of the Fram Strait branch of Atlantic Water (FSBW) in the Canada Basin is described using available temperature, salinity, and velocity data. The core temperatures of FSBW show distinct pathways. Over the Chukchi Borderland advective velocities of the FSBW are well-correlated with bottom topography. The resulting multifarious pathways over the Chukchi Borderland act to modulate and substantially increase the time scale of WTA spreading and advancement. Further downstream two WTA tongues are observed. One tongue followed the Beaufort Slope and, along this pathway, the core temperatures of FSBW decreased rapidly. The depth integrated value of heat content remained near constant however, suggesting enhanced vertical mixing. The second tongue debouched from the northern tip of the Northwind Ridge and spread eastward into the deep Canada Basin, suggesting a complex recirculation structure within the Beaufort Gyre.
Atmospheric forcing validation for modeling the central Arctic

(American Geophysical Union, 2007-10-24) Makshtas, A. ; Atkinson, D. ; Kulakov, M. ; Shutilin, S. ; Krishfield, Richard A. ; Proshutinsky, Andrey

We compare daily data from the National Center for Atmospheric Research and National Centers for Environmental Prediction “Reanalysis 1” project with observational data obtained from the North Pole drifting stations in order to validate the atmospheric forcing data used in coupled ice-ocean models. This analysis is conducted to assess the role of errors associated with model forcing before performing model verifications against observed ocean variables. Our analysis shows an excellent agreement between observed and reanalysis sea level pressures and a relatively good correlation between observed and reanalysis surface winds. The observed temperature is in good agreement with reanalysis data only in winter. Specific air humidity and cloudiness are not reproduced well by reanalysis and are not recommended for model forcing. An example sensitivity study demonstrates that the equilibrium ice thickness obtained using NP forcing is two times thicker than using reanalysis forcing.
Inorganic carbon and pCO(2) variability during ice formation in the Beaufort Gyre of the Canada Basin.

(American Geophysical Union, 2019-05-07) DeGrandpre, Michael D. ; Lai, Chun-Ze ; Timmermans, Mary-Louise ; Krishfield, Richard A. ; Proshutinsky, Andrey ; Torres, Daniel J.

Solute exclusion during sea ice formation is a potentially important contributor to the Arctic Ocean inorganic carbon cycle that could increase as ice cover diminishes. When ice forms, solutes are excluded from the ice matrix, creating a brine that includes dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and total alkalinity (AT). The brine sinks, potentially exporting DIC and AT to deeper water. This phenomenon has rarely been observed, however. In this manuscript, we examine a ~1 year pCO2 mooring time series where a ~35‐μatm increase in pCO2 was observed in the mixed layer during the ice formation period, corresponding to a simultaneous increase in salinity from 27.2 to 28.5. Using salinity and ice based mass balances, we show that most of the observed increases can be attributed to solute exclusion during ice formation. The resulting pCO2 is sensitive to the ratio of AT and DIC retained in the ice and the mixed layer depth, which controls dilution of the ice‐derived AT and DIC. In the Canada Basin, of the ~92 μmol/kg increase in DIC, 17 μmol/kg was taken up by biological production and the remainder was trapped between the halocline and the summer stratified surface layer. Although not observed before the mooring was recovered, this inorganic carbon was likely later entrained with surface water, increasing the pCO2 at the surface. It is probable that inorganic carbon exclusion during ice formation will have an increasingly important influence on DIC and pCO2 in the surface of the Arctic Ocean as seasonal ice production and wind‐driven mixing increase with diminishing ice cover.
Role of tides in Arctic ocean/ice climate

(American Geophysical Union, 2007-03-28) Holloway, Greg ; Proshutinsky, Andrey

A three-dimensional coupled ocean/ice model, intended for long-term Arctic climate studies, is extended to include tidal effects. From saved output of an Arctic tides model, we introduce parameterizations for (1) enhanced ocean mixing associated with tides and (2) the role of tides fracturing and mobilizing sea ice. Results show tides enhancing loss of heat from Atlantic waters. The impact of tides on sea ice is more subtle as thinning due to enhanced ocean heat flux competes with net ice growth during rapid openings and closings of tidal leads. Present model results are compared with an ensemble of nine models under the Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (AOMIP). Among results from AOMIP is a tendency for models to accumulate excessive Arctic Ocean heat throughout the intercomparison period 1950 to 2000 which is contrary to observations. Tidally induced ventilation of ocean heat reduces this discrepancy.
Influences of the ocean surface mixed layer and thermohaline stratification on Arctic Sea ice in the central Canada Basin

(American Geophysical Union, 2010-10-08) Toole, John M. ; Timmermans, Mary-Louise ; Perovich, Donald K. ; Krishfield, Richard A. ; Proshutinsky, Andrey ; Richter-Menge, Jackie A.

Variations in the Arctic central Canada Basin mixed layer properties are documented based on a subset of nearly 6500 temperature and salinity profiles acquired by Ice-Tethered Profilers during the period summer 2004 to summer 2009 and analyzed in conjunction with sea ice observations from ice mass balance buoys and atmosphere-ocean heat flux estimates. The July–August mean mixed layer depth based on the Ice-Tethered Profiler data averaged 16 m (an overestimate due to the Ice-Tethered Profiler sampling characteristics and present analysis procedures), while the average winter mixed layer depth was only 24 m, with individual observations rarely exceeding 40 m. Guidance interpreting the observations is provided by a 1-D ocean mixed layer model. The analysis focuses attention on the very strong density stratification at the base of the mixed layer in the Canada Basin that greatly impedes surface layer deepening and thus limits the flux of deep ocean heat to the surface that could influence sea ice growth/decay. The observations additionally suggest that efficient lateral mixed layer restratification processes are active in the Arctic, also impeding mixed layer deepening.
Recent advances in Arctic ocean studies employing models from the Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project

(Oceanography Society, 2011-09) Proshutinsky, Andrey ; Aksenov, Yevgeny ; Kinney, Jaclyn Clement ; Gerdes, Rudiger ; Golubeva, Elena ; Holland, David ; Holloway, Greg ; Jahn, Alexandra ; Johnson, Mark ; Popova, Ekaterina E. ; Steele, Michael ; Watanabe, Eiji

Observational data show that the Arctic Ocean has significantly and rapidly changed over the last few decades, which is unprecedented in the observational record. Air and water temperatures have increased, sea ice volume and extent have decreased, permafrost has thawed, storminess has increased, sea level has risen, coastal erosion has progressed, and biological processes have become more complex and diverse. In addition, there are socio-economic impacts of Arctic environmental change on Arctic residents and the world, associated with tourism, oil and gas exploration, navigation, military operations, trade, and industry. This paper discusses important results of the Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project, which is advancing the role of numerical modeling in Arctic Ocean and sea ice research by stimulating national and international synergies for high-latitude research.
Secular sea level change in the Russian sector of the Arctic Ocean

(American Geophysical Union, 2004-03-25) Proshutinsky, Andrey ; Ashik, Igor M. ; Dvorkin, E. N. ; Hakkinen, Sirpa M. A. ; Krishfield, Richard A. ; Peltier, W. R.

Sea level is a natural integral indicator of climate variability. It reflects changes in practically all dynamic and thermodynamic processes of terrestrial, oceanic, atmospheric, and cryospheric origin. The use of estimates of sea level rise as an indicator of climate change therefore incurs the difficulty that the inferred sea level change is the net result of many individual effects of environmental forcing. Since some of these effects may offset others, the cause of the sea level response to climate change remains somewhat uncertain. This paper is focused on an attempt to provide first-order answers to two questions, namely, what is the rate of sea level change in the Arctic Ocean, and furthermore, what is the role of each of the individual contributing factors to observed Arctic Ocean sea level change? In seeking answers to these questions we have discovered that during the period 1954–1989 the observed sea level over the Russian sector of the Arctic Ocean is rising at a rate of approximately 0.123 cm yr−1 and that after correction for the process of glacial isostatic adjustment this rate is approximately 0.185 cm yr−1. There are two major causes of this rise. The first is associated with the steric effect of ocean expansion. This effect is responsible for a contribution of approximately 0.064 cm yr−1 to the total rate of rise (35%). The second most important factor is related to the ongoing decrease of sea level atmospheric pressure over the Arctic Ocean, which contributes 0.056 cm yr−1, or approximately 30% of the net positive sea level trend. A third contribution to the sea level increase involves wind action and the increase of cyclonic winds over the Arctic Ocean, which leads to sea level rise at a rate of 0.018 cm yr−1 or approximately 10% of the total. The combined effect of the sea level rise due to an increase of river runoff and the sea level fall due to a negative trend in precipitation minus evaporation over the ocean is close to 0. For the Russian sector of the Arctic Ocean it therefore appears that approximately 25% of the trend of 0.185 cm yr−1, a contribution of 0.048 cm yr−1, may be due to the effect of increasing Arctic Ocean mass.
Characterizing the eddy field in the Arctic Ocean halocline

(John Wiley & Sons, 2014-12-22) Zhao, Mengnan ; Timmermans, Mary-Louise ; Cole, Sylvia T. ; Krishfield, Richard A. ; Proshutinsky, Andrey ; Toole, John M.

Ice-Tethered Profilers (ITP), deployed in the Arctic Ocean between 2004 and 2013, have provided detailed temperature and salinity measurements of an assortment of halocline eddies. A total of 127 mesoscale eddies have been detected, 95% of which were anticyclones, the majority of which had anomalously cold cores. These cold-core anticyclonic eddies were observed in the Beaufort Gyre region (Canadian water eddies) and the vicinity of the Transpolar Drift Stream (Eurasian water eddies). An Arctic-wide calculation of the first baroclinic Rossby deformation radius Rd has been made using ITP data coupled with climatology; Rd ∼ 13 km in the Canadian water and ∼8 km in the Eurasian water. The observed eddies are found to have scales comparable to Rd. Halocline eddies are in cyclogeostrophic balance and can be described by a Rankine vortex with maximum azimuthal speeds between 0.05 and 0.4 m/s. The relationship between radius and thickness for the eddies is consistent with adjustment to the ambient stratification. Eddies may be divided into four groups, each characterized by distinct core depths and core temperature and salinity properties, suggesting multiple source regions and enabling speculation of varying formation mechanisms.
Eddies in the Canada Basin, Arctic Ocean, observed from ice-tethered profilers

(American Meteorological Society, 2008-01) Timmermans, Mary-Louise ; Toole, John M. ; Proshutinsky, Andrey ; Krishfield, Richard A. ; Plueddemann, Albert J.

Five ice-tethered profilers (ITPs), deployed between 2004 and 2006, have provided detailed potential temperature θ and salinity S profiles from 21 anticyclonic eddy encounters in the central Canada Basin of the Arctic Ocean. The 12–35-m-thick eddies have center depths between 42 and 69 m in the Arctic halocline, and are shallower and less dense than the majority of eddies observed previously in the central Canada Basin. They are characterized by anomalously cold θ and low stratification, and have horizontal scales on the order of, or less than, the Rossby radius of deformation (about 10 km). Maximum azimuthal speeds estimated from dynamic heights (assuming cyclogeostrophic balance) are between 9 and 26 cm s−1, an order of magnitude larger than typical ambient flow speeds in the central basin. Eddy θ–S and potential vorticity properties, as well as horizontal and vertical scales, are consistent with their formation by instability of a surface front at about 80°N that appears in historical CTD and expendable CTD (XCTD) measurements. This would suggest eddy lifetimes longer than 6 months. While the baroclinic instability of boundary currents cannot be ruled out as a generation mechanism, it is less likely since deeper eddies that would originate from the deeper-reaching boundary flows are not observed in the survey region.
Greenland freshwater pathways in the sub-Arctic Seas from model experiments with passive tracers

(John Wiley & Sons, 2016-01-25) Dukhovskoy, Dmitry S. ; Myers, Paul G. ; Platov, Gennady A. ; Timmermans, Mary-Louise ; Curry, Beth ; Proshutinsky, Andrey ; Bamber, Jonathan L. ; Chassignet, Eric P. ; Hu, Xianmin ; Lee, Craig M. ; Somavilla, Raquel

Accelerating since the early 1990s, the Greenland Ice Sheet mass loss exerts a significant impact on thermohaline processes in the sub-Arctic seas. Surplus freshwater discharge from Greenland since the 1990s, comparable in volume to the amount of freshwater present during the Great Salinity Anomaly events, could spread and accumulate in the sub-Arctic seas, influencing convective processes there. However, hydrographic observations in the Labrador Sea and the Nordic Seas, where the Greenland freshening signal might be expected to propagate, do not show a persistent freshening in the upper ocean during last two decades. This raises the question of where the surplus Greenland freshwater has propagated. In order to investigate the fate, pathways, and propagation rate of Greenland meltwater in the sub-Arctic seas, several numerical experiments using a passive tracer to track the spreading of Greenland freshwater have been conducted as a part of the Forum for Arctic Ocean Modeling and Observational Synthesis effort. The models show that Greenland freshwater propagates and accumulates in the sub-Arctic seas, although the models disagree on the amount of tracer propagation into the convective regions. Results highlight the differences in simulated physical mechanisms at play in different models and underscore the continued importance of intercomparison studies. It is estimated that surplus Greenland freshwater flux should have caused a salinity decrease by 0.06–0.08 in the sub-Arctic seas in contradiction with the recently observed salinification (by 0.15–0.2) in the region. It is surmised that the increasing salinity of Atlantic Water has obscured the freshening signal.
Arctic decadal variability from an idealized atmosphere-ice-ocean model: 1. Model description, calibration, and validation

(American Geophysical Union, 2006-06-20) Dukhovskoy, Dmitry S. ; Johnson, Mark A. ; Proshutinsky, Andrey

This paper describes a simple “multibox” model of the Arctic atmosphere-ice-ocean system. The model consists of two major modules (an Arctic module and a Greenland Sea module) and several sub-modules. The Arctic module includes a shelf box model coupled with a thermodynamic sea ice model, and an Arctic Ocean model coupled with a sea ice model and an atmospheric box model. The Greenland Sea module includes an oceanic model coupled with a sea ice model and a statistical model of surface air temperature over the Greenland Sea. The full model is forced by daily solar radiation, wind stress, river runoff, and Pacific Water inflow through Bering Strait. For validation purposes, results from model experiments reproducing seasonal variability of the major system parameters are analyzed and compared with observations and other models. The model reproduces the seasonal variability of the Arctic system reasonably well and is used to investigate decadal Arctic climate variability in Part 2 of this publication.
The Ice-Tethered Profiler : Argo of the Arctic

(Oceanography Society, 2011-09) Toole, John M. ; Krishfield, Richard A. ; Timmermans, Mary-Louise ; Proshutinsky, Andrey

Ice-Tethered Profilers (ITPs), first deployed in fall 2004, have significantly increased the number of high-quality upper-ocean water-property observations available from the central Arctic. This article reviews the instrument technology and provides a status report on performance, along with several examples of the science that ITPs and companion instrumentation support.
The Atlantic Water boundary current in the Nansen Basin : transport and mechanisms of lateral exchange

(John Wiley & Sons, 2016-09-22) Våge, Kjetil ; Pickart, Robert S. ; Pavlov, Vladimir ; Lin, Peigen ; Torres, Daniel J. ; Ingvaldsen, Randi B. ; Sundfjord, Arild ; Proshutinsky, Andrey

Data from a shipboard hydrographic survey near 30°E in the Nansen Basin of the Arctic Ocean are used to investigate the structure and transport of the Atlantic Water boundary current. Two high-resolution synoptic crossings of the current indicate that it is roughly 30 km wide and weakly middepth-intensified. Using a previously determined definition of Atlantic Water, the transport of this water mass is calculated to be 1.6 ± 0.3 Sv, which is similar to the transport of Atlantic Water in the inner branch of the West Spitsbergen Current. At the time of the survey a small anticyclonic eddy of Atlantic Water was situated just offshore of the boundary current. The data suggest that the feature was recently detached from the boundary current, and, due to compensating effects of temperature and salinity on the thermal wind shear, the maximum swirl speed was situated below the hydrographic property core. Two other similar features were detected within our study domain, suggesting that these eddies are common and represent an effective means of fluxing warm and salty water from the boundary current into the interior. An atmospheric low-pressure system transiting south of our study area resulted in southeasterly winds prior to and during the field measurements. A comparison to hydrographic data from the Pacific Water boundary current in the Canada Basin under similar atmospheric forcing suggests that upwelling was taking place during the survey. This provides a second mechanism related to cross-stream exchange of heat and salt in this region of the Nansen Basin.
Skill metrics for evaluation and comparison of sea ice models

(John Wiley & Sons, 2015-09-02) Dukhovskoy, Dmitry S. ; Ubnoske, Jonathan ; Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Edward ; Hiester, Hannah R. ; Proshutinsky, Andrey

Five quantitative methodologies (metrics) that may be used to assess the skill of sea ice models against a control field are analyzed. The methodologies are Absolute Deviation, Root-Mean-Square Deviation, Mean Displacement, Hausdorff Distance, and Modified Hausdorff Distance. The methodologies are employed to quantify similarity between spatial distribution of the simulated and control scalar fields providing measures of model performance. To analyze their response to dissimilarities in two-dimensional fields (contours), the metrics undergo sensitivity tests (scale, rotation, translation, and noise). Furthermore, in order to assess their ability to quantify resemblance of three-dimensional fields, the metrics are subjected to sensitivity tests where tested fields have continuous random spatial patterns inside the contours. The Modified Hausdorff Distance approach demonstrates the best response to tested differences, with the other methods limited by weak responses to scale and translation. Both Hausdorff Distance and Modified Hausdorff Distance metrics are robust to noise, as opposed to the other methods. The metrics are then employed in realistic cases that validate sea ice concentration fields from numerical models and sea ice mean outlook against control data and observations. The Modified Hausdorff Distance method again exhibits high skill in quantifying similarity between both two-dimensional (ice contour) and three-dimensional (ice concentration) sea ice fields. The study demonstrates that the Modified Hausdorff Distance is a mathematically tractable and efficient method for model skill assessment and comparison providing effective and objective evaluation of both two-dimensional and three-dimensional sea ice characteristics across data sets.

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