Griffies
Stephen M.
Griffies
Stephen M.
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ArticleRapid mixing and exchange of deep-ocean waters in an abyssal boundary current.(National Academy of Sciences, 2019-07-02) Naveira Garabato, Alberto C. ; Frajka-Williams, Eleanor E. ; Spingys, Carl P. ; Legg, Sonya ; Polzin, Kurt L. ; Forryan, Alexander ; Abrahamsen, E. Povl ; Buckingham, Christian E. ; Griffies, Stephen M. ; McPhail, Stephen D. ; Nicholls, Keith W. ; Thomas, Leif N. ; Meredith, Michael P.The overturning circulation of the global ocean is critically shaped by deep-ocean mixing, which transforms cold waters sinking at high latitudes into warmer, shallower waters. The effectiveness of mixing in driving this transformation is jointly set by two factors: the intensity of turbulence near topography and the rate at which well-mixed boundary waters are exchanged with the stratified ocean interior. Here, we use innovative observations of a major branch of the overturning circulation—an abyssal boundary current in the Southern Ocean—to identify a previously undocumented mixing mechanism, by which deep-ocean waters are efficiently laundered through intensified near-boundary turbulence and boundary–interior exchange. The linchpin of the mechanism is the generation of submesoscale dynamical instabilities by the flow of deep-ocean waters along a steep topographic boundary. As the conditions conducive to this mode of mixing are common to many abyssal boundary currents, our findings highlight an imperative for its representation in models of oceanic overturning.
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ArticleAuthor Correction : Spiraling pathways of global deep waters to the surface of the Southern Ocean(Nature Publishing Group, 2018-01-15) Tamsitt, Veronica ; Drake, Henri F. ; Morrison, Adele K. ; Talley, Lynne D. ; Dufour, Carolina O. ; Gray, Alison R. ; Griffies, Stephen M. ; Mazloff, Matthew R. ; Sarmiento, Jorge L. ; Wang, Jinbo ; Weijer, WilbertCorrection to: Nature Communications 8:172 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-00197-0; Article published online: 2 August 2017
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ArticleLagrangian timescales of Southern Ocean upwelling in a hierarchy of model resolutions(John Wiley & Sons, 2018-01-31) Drake, Henri F. ; Morrison, Adele K. ; Griffies, Stephen M. ; Sarmiento, Jorge L. ; Weijer, Wilbert ; Gray, Alison R.In this paper we study upwelling pathways and timescales of Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) in a hierarchy of models using a Lagrangian particle tracking method. Lagrangian timescales of CDW upwelling decrease from 87 years to 31 years to 17 years as the ocean resolution is refined from 1° to 0.25° to 0.1°. We attribute some of the differences in timescale to the strength of the eddy fields, as demonstrated by temporally degrading high-resolution model velocity fields. Consistent with the timescale dependence, we find that an average Lagrangian particle completes 3.2 circumpolar loops in the 1° model in comparison to 0.9 loops in the 0.1° model. These differences suggest that advective timescales and thus interbasin merging of upwelling CDW may be overestimated by coarse-resolution models, potentially affecting the skill of centennial scale climate change projections.
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ArticleEffects of grid spacing on high-frequency precipitation variance in coupled high-resolution global ocean–atmosphere models(Springer, 2022-03-29) Light, Charles X. ; Arbic, Brian K. ; Martin, Paige E. ; Brodeau, Laurent ; Farrar, J. Thomas ; Griffies, Stephen M. ; Kirtman, Benjamin ; Laurindo, Lucas ; Menemenlis, Dimitris ; Molod, Andrea ; Nelson, Arin D. ; Nyadjro, Ebenezer ; O’Rourke, Amanda K. ; Shriver, Jay F. ; Siqueira, Leo ; Small, R. Justin ; Strobach, EhudHigh-frequency precipitation variance is calculated in 12 different free-running (non-data-assimilative) coupled high resolution atmosphere–ocean model simulations, an assimilative coupled atmosphere–ocean weather forecast model, and an assimilative reanalysis. The results are compared with results from satellite estimates of precipitation and rain gauge observations. An analysis of irregular sub-daily fluctuations, which was applied by Covey et al. (Geophys Res Lett 45:12514–12522, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078926) to satellite products and low-resolution climate models, is applied here to rain gauges and higher-resolution models. In contrast to lower-resolution climate simulations, which Covey et al. (2018) found to be lacking with respect to variance in irregular sub-daily fluctuations, the highest-resolution simulations examined here display an irregular sub-daily fluctuation variance that lies closer to that found in satellite products. Most of the simulations used here cannot be analyzed via the Covey et al. (2018) technique, because they do not output precipitation at sub-daily intervals. Thus the remainder of the paper focuses on frequency power spectral density of precipitation and on cumulative distribution functions over time scales (2–100 days) that are still relatively “high-frequency” in the context of climate modeling. Refined atmospheric or oceanic model grid spacing is generally found to increase high-frequency precipitation variance in simulations, approaching the values derived from observations. Mesoscale-eddy-rich ocean simulations significantly increase precipitation variance only when the atmosphere grid spacing is sufficiently fine (< 0.5°). Despite the improvements noted above, all of the simulations examined here suffer from the “drizzle effect”, in which precipitation is not temporally intermittent to the extent found in observations.
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ArticleImproving oceanic overflow representation in climate models : the Gravity Current Entrainment Climate Process Team(American Meteorological Society, 2009-05) Legg, Sonya ; Ezer, Tal ; Jackson, Laura ; Briegleb, Bruce P. ; Danabasoglu, Gokhan ; Large, William G. ; Wu, Wanli ; Chang, Yeon ; Ozgokmen, Tamay M. ; Peters, Hartmut ; Xu, Xiaobiao ; Chassignet, Eric P. ; Gordon, Arnold L. ; Griffies, Stephen M. ; Hallberg, Robert ; Price, James F. ; Riemenschneider, Ulrike ; Yang, JiayanOceanic overflows are bottom-trapped density currents originating in semienclosed basins, such as the Nordic seas, or on continental shelves, such as the Antarctic shelf. Overflows are the source of most of the abyssal waters, and therefore play an important role in the large-scale ocean circulation, forming a component of the sinking branch of the thermohaline circulation. As they descend the continental slope, overflows mix vigorously with the surrounding oceanic waters, changing their density and transport significantly. These mixing processes occur on spatial scales well below the resolution of ocean climate models, with the result that deep waters and deep western boundary currents are simulated poorly. The Gravity Current Entrainment Climate Process Team was established by the U.S. Climate Variability and Prediction (CLIVAR) Program to accelerate the development and implementation of improved representations of overflows within large-scale climate models, bringing together climate model developers with those conducting observational, numerical, and laboratory process studies of overflows. Here, the organization of the Climate Process Team is described, and a few of the successes and lessons learned during this collaboration are highlighted, with some emphasis on the well-observed Mediterranean overflow. The Climate Process Team has developed several different overflow parameterizations, which are examined in a hierarchy of ocean models, from comparatively well-resolved regional models to the largest-scale global climate models.
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ArticleClimate Process Team on internal wave–driven ocean mixing(American Meteorological Society, 2017-12-01) MacKinnon, Jennifer A. ; Zhao, Zhongxiang ; Whalen, Caitlin B. ; Waterhouse, Amy F. ; Trossman, David S. ; Sun, Oliver M. ; St. Laurent, Louis C. ; Simmons, Harper L. ; Polzin, Kurt L. ; Pinkel, Robert ; Pickering, Andrew I. ; Norton, Nancy J. ; Nash, Jonathan D. ; Musgrave, Ruth C. ; Merchant, Lynne M. ; Melet, Angelique ; Mater, Benjamin D. ; Legg, Sonya ; Large, William G. ; Kunze, Eric ; Klymak, Jody M. ; Jochum, Markus ; Jayne, Steven R. ; Hallberg, Robert ; Griffies, Stephen M. ; Diggs, Stephen ; Danabasoglu, Gokhan ; Chassignet, Eric P. ; Buijsman, Maarten C. ; Bryan, Frank O. ; Briegleb, Bruce P. ; Barna, Andrew ; Arbic, Brian K. ; Ansong, Joseph ; Alford, Matthew H.Diapycnal mixing plays a primary role in the thermodynamic balance of the ocean and, consequently, in oceanic heat and carbon uptake and storage. Though observed mixing rates are on average consistent with values required by inverse models, recent attention has focused on the dramatic spatial variability, spanning several orders of magnitude, of mixing rates in both the upper and deep ocean. Away from ocean boundaries, the spatiotemporal patterns of mixing are largely driven by the geography of generation, propagation, and dissipation of internal waves, which supply much of the power for turbulent mixing. Over the last 5 years and under the auspices of U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability Program (CLIVAR), a National Science Foundation (NSF)- and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-supported Climate Process Team has been engaged in developing, implementing, and testing dynamics-based parameterizations for internal wave–driven turbulent mixing in global ocean models. The work has primarily focused on turbulence 1) near sites of internal tide generation, 2) in the upper ocean related to wind-generated near inertial motions, 3) due to internal lee waves generated by low-frequency mesoscale flows over topography, and 4) at ocean margins. Here, we review recent progress, describe the tools developed, and discuss future directions.
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ArticleOcean climate observing requirements in support of climate research and climate information(Frontiers Media, 2019-07-31) Stammer, Detlef ; Bracco, Annalisa ; AchutaRao, Krishna ; Beal, Lisa M. ; Bindoff, Nathaniel L. ; Braconnot, Pascale ; Cai, Wenju ; Chen, Dake ; Collins, Matthew ; Danabasoglu, Gokhan ; Dewitte, Boris ; Farneti, Riccardo ; Fox-Kemper, Baylor ; Fyfe, John ; Griffies, Stephen M. ; Jayne, Steven R. ; Lazar, Alban ; Lengaigne, Matthieu ; Lin, Xiaopei ; Marsland, Simon ; Minobe, Shoshiro ; Monteiro, Pedro M. S. ; Robinson, Walter ; Roxy, Mathew Koll ; Rykaczewski, Ryan R. ; Speich, Sabrina ; Smith, Inga J. ; Solomon, Amy ; Storto, Andrea ; Takahashi, Ken ; Toniazzo, Thomas ; Vialard, JérômeNatural variability and change of the Earth’s climate have significant global societal impacts. With its large heat and carbon capacity and relatively slow dynamics, the ocean plays an integral role in climate, and provides an important source of predictability at seasonal and longer timescales. In addition, the ocean provides the slowly evolving lower boundary to the atmosphere, driving, and modifying atmospheric weather. Understanding and monitoring ocean climate variability and change, to constrain and initialize models as well as identify model biases for improved climate hindcasting and prediction, requires a scale-sensitive, and long-term observing system. A climate observing system has requirements that significantly differ from, and sometimes are orthogonal to, those of other applications. In general terms, they can be summarized by the simultaneous need for both large spatial and long temporal coverage, and by the accuracy and stability required for detecting the local climate signals. This paper reviews the requirements of a climate observing system in terms of space and time scales, and revisits the question of which parameters such a system should encompass to meet future strategic goals of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP), with emphasis on ocean and sea-ice covered areas. It considers global as well as regional aspects that should be accounted for in designing observing systems in individual basins. Furthermore, the paper discusses which data-driven products are required to meet WCRP research and modeling needs, and ways to obtain them through data synthesis and assimilation approaches. Finally, it addresses the need for scientific capacity building and international collaboration in support of the collection of high-quality measurements over the large spatial scales and long time-scales required for climate research, bridging the scientific rational to the required resources for implementation.
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ArticleBiogeochemical protocols and diagnostics for the CMIP6 Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP)(Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union, 2017-06-09) Orr, James C. ; Najjar, Raymond G. ; Aumont, Olivier ; Bopp, Laurent ; Bullister, John L. ; Danabasoglu, Gokhan ; Doney, Scott C. ; Dunne, John P. ; Dutay, Jean-Claude ; Graven, Heather ; Griffies, Stephen M. ; John, Jasmin G. ; Joos, Fortunat ; Levin, Ingeborg ; Lindsay, Keith ; Matear, Richard J. ; McKinley, Galen A. ; Mouchet, Anne ; Oschlies, Andreas ; Romanou, Anastasia ; Schlitzer, Reiner ; Tagliabue, Alessandro ; Tanhua, Toste ; Yool, AndrewThe Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) focuses on the physics and biogeochemistry of the ocean component of Earth system models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). OMIP aims to provide standard protocols and diagnostics for ocean models, while offering a forum to promote their common assessment and improvement. It also offers to compare solutions of the same ocean models when forced with reanalysis data (OMIP simulations) vs. when integrated within fully coupled Earth system models (CMIP6). Here we detail simulation protocols and diagnostics for OMIP's biogeochemical and inert chemical tracers. These passive-tracer simulations will be coupled to ocean circulation models, initialized with observational data or output from a model spin-up, and forced by repeating the 1948–2009 surface fluxes of heat, fresh water, and momentum. These so-called OMIP-BGC simulations include three inert chemical tracers (CFC-11, CFC-12, SF6) and biogeochemical tracers (e.g., dissolved inorganic carbon, carbon isotopes, alkalinity, nutrients, and oxygen). Modelers will use their preferred prognostic BGC model but should follow common guidelines for gas exchange and carbonate chemistry. Simulations include both natural and total carbon tracers. The required forced simulation (omip1) will be initialized with gridded observational climatologies. An optional forced simulation (omip1-spunup) will be initialized instead with BGC fields from a long model spin-up, preferably for 2000 years or more, and forced by repeating the same 62-year meteorological forcing. That optional run will also include abiotic tracers of total dissolved inorganic carbon and radiocarbon, CTabio and 14CTabio, to assess deep-ocean ventilation and distinguish the role of physics vs. biology. These simulations will be forced by observed atmospheric histories of the three inert gases and CO2 as well as carbon isotope ratios of CO2. OMIP-BGC simulation protocols are founded on those from previous phases of the Ocean Carbon-Cycle Model Intercomparison Project. They have been merged and updated to reflect improvements concerning gas exchange, carbonate chemistry, and new data for initial conditions and atmospheric gas histories. Code is provided to facilitate their implementation.
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ArticleSpiraling pathways of global deep waters to the surface of the Southern Ocean(Nature Publishing Group, 2017-08-02) Tamsitt, Veronica ; Drake, Henri F. ; Morrison, Adele K. ; Talley, Lynne D. ; Dufour, Carolina O. ; Gray, Alison R. ; Griffies, Stephen M. ; Mazloff, Matthew R. ; Sarmiento, Jorge L. ; Wang, Jinbo ; Weijer, WilbertUpwelling of global deep waters to the sea surface in the Southern Ocean closes the global overturning circulation and is fundamentally important for oceanic uptake of carbon and heat, nutrient resupply for sustaining oceanic biological production, and the melt rate of ice shelves. However, the exact pathways and role of topography in Southern Ocean upwelling remain largely unknown. Here we show detailed upwelling pathways in three dimensions, using hydrographic observations and particle tracking in high-resolution models. The analysis reveals that the northern-sourced deep waters enter the Antarctic Circumpolar Current via southward flow along the boundaries of the three ocean basins, before spiraling southeastward and upward through the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Upwelling is greatly enhanced at five major topographic features, associated with vigorous mesoscale eddy activity. Deep water reaches the upper ocean predominantly south of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, with a spatially nonuniform distribution. The timescale for half of the deep water to upwell from 30° S to the mixed layer is ~60–90 years.
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ArticleLagrangian ocean analysis : fundamentals and practices(Elsevier, 2017-11-24) van Sebille, Erik ; Griffies, Stephen M. ; Abernathey, Ryan ; Adams, Thomas P. ; Berloff, Pavel S. ; Biastoch, Arne ; Blanke, Bruno ; Chassignet, Eric P. ; Cheng, Yu ; Cotter, Colin J. ; Deleersnijder, Eric ; Döös, Kristofer ; Drake, Henri F. ; Drijfhout, Sybren ; Gary, Stefan F. ; Heemink, Arnold W. ; Kjellsson, Joakim ; Koszalka, Inga M. ; Lange, Michael ; Lique, Camille ; MacGilchrist, Graeme ; Marsh, Robert ; Mayorga-Adame, Claudia G. ; McAdam, Ronan ; Nencioli, Francesco ; Paris, Claire B. ; Piggott, Matthew D. ; Polton, Jeff ; Rühs, Siren ; Shah, Syed H.A.M. ; Thomas, Matthew D. ; Wang, Jinbo ; Wolfram, Phillip J. ; Zanna, Laure ; Zika, Jan D.Lagrangian analysis is a powerful way to analyse the output of ocean circulation models and other ocean velocity data such as from altimetry. In the Lagrangian approach, large sets of virtual particles are integrated within the three-dimensional, time-evolving velocity fields. Over several decades, a variety of tools and methods for this purpose have emerged. Here, we review the state of the art in the field of Lagrangian analysis of ocean velocity data, starting from a fundamental kinematic framework and with a focus on large-scale open ocean applications. Beyond the use of explicit velocity fields, we consider the influence of unresolved physics and dynamics on particle trajectories. We comprehensively list and discuss the tools currently available for tracking virtual particles. We then showcase some of the innovative applications of trajectory data, and conclude with some open questions and an outlook. The overall goal of this review paper is to reconcile some of the different techniques and methods in Lagrangian ocean analysis, while recognising the rich diversity of codes that have and continue to emerge, and the challenges of the coming age of petascale computing.
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ArticleKinetic energy transfers between mesoscale and submesoscale motions in the open ocean’s upper layers(American Meteorological Society, 2022-01-01) Naveira Garabato, Alberto C. ; Yu, Xiaolong ; Callies, Joern ; Barkan, Roy ; Polzin, Kurt L. ; Frajka-Williams, Eleanor E. ; Buckingham, Christian E. ; Griffies, Stephen M.Mesoscale eddies contain the bulk of the ocean’s kinetic energy (KE), but fundamental questions remain on the cross-scale KE transfers linking eddy generation and dissipation. The role of submesoscale flows represents the key point of discussion, with contrasting views of submesoscales as either a source or a sink of mesoscale KE. Here, the first observational assessment of the annual cycle of the KE transfer between mesoscale and submesoscale motions is performed in the upper layers of a typical open-ocean region. Although these diagnostics have marginal statistical significance and should be regarded cautiously, they are physically plausible and can provide a valuable benchmark for model evaluation. The cross-scale KE transfer exhibits two distinct stages, whereby submesoscales energize mesoscales in winter and drain mesoscales in spring. Despite this seasonal reversal, an inverse KE cascade operates throughout the year across much of the mesoscale range. Our results are not incompatible with recent modeling investigations that place the headwaters of the inverse KE cascade at the submesoscale, and that rationalize the seasonality of mesoscale KE as an inverse cascade-mediated response to the generation of submesoscales in winter. However, our findings may challenge those investigations by suggesting that, in spring, a downscale KE transfer could dampen the inverse KE cascade. An exploratory appraisal of the dynamics governing mesoscale–submesoscale KE exchanges suggests that the upscale KE transfer in winter is underpinned by mixed layer baroclinic instabilities, and that the downscale KE transfer in spring is associated with frontogenesis. Current submesoscale-permitting ocean models may substantially understate this downscale KE transfer, due to the models’ muted representation of frontogenesis.
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ArticleChallenges to understanding the dynamic response of Greenland's marine terminating glaciers to oceanic and atmospheric forcing(American Meteorological Society, 2013-08) Straneo, Fiamma ; Heimbach, Patrick ; Sergienko, Olga ; Hamilton, Gordon S. ; Catania, Ginny ; Griffies, Stephen M. ; Hallberg, Robert ; Jenkins, Adrian ; Joughin, Ian ; Motyka, Roman ; Pfeffer, W. Tad ; Price, Stephen F. ; Rignot, Eric ; Scambos, Ted ; Truffer, Martin ; Vieli, AndreasThe recent retreat and speedup of outlet glaciers, as well as enhanced surface melting around the ice sheet margin, have increased Greenland's contribution to sea level rise to 0.6 ± 0.1 mm yr−1 and its discharge of freshwater into the North Atlantic. The widespread, near-synchronous glacier retreat, and its coincidence with a period of oceanic and atmospheric warming, suggests a common climate driver. Evidence points to the marine margins of these glaciers as the region from which changes propagated inland. Yet, the forcings and mechanisms behind these dynamic responses are poorly understood and are either missing or crudely parameterized in climate and ice sheet models. Resulting projected sea level rise contributions from Greenland by 2100 remain highly uncertain. This paper summarizes the current state of knowledge and highlights key physical aspects of Greenland's coupled ice sheet–ocean–atmosphere system. Three research thrusts are identified to yield fundamental insights into ice sheet, ocean, sea ice, and atmosphere interactions, their role in Earth's climate system, and probable trajectories of future changes: 1) focused process studies addressing critical glacier, ocean, atmosphere, and coupled dynamics; 2) sustained observations at key sites; and 3) inclusion of relevant dynamics in Earth system models. Understanding the dynamic response of Greenland's glaciers to climate forcing constitutes both a scientific and technological frontier, given the challenges of obtaining the appropriate measurements from the glaciers' marine termini and the complexity of the dynamics involved, including the coupling of the ocean, atmosphere, glacier, and sea ice systems. Interdisciplinary and international cooperation are crucial to making progress on this novel and complex problem.
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ArticleNeverWorld2: an idealized model hierarchy to investigate ocean mesoscale eddies across resolutions(European Geosciences Union, 2022-09-01) Marques, Gustavo ; Loose, Nora ; Yankovsky, Elizabeth ; Steinberg, Jacob M. ; Chang, Chiung-Yin ; Bhamidipati, Neeraja ; Adcroft, Alistair ; Fox-Kemper, Baylor ; Griffies, Stephen M. ; Hallberg, Robert ; Jansen, Malte F. ; Khatri, Hemant ; Zanna, LaureWe describe an idealized primitive-equation model for studying mesoscale turbulence and leverage a hierarchy of grid resolutions to make eddy-resolving calculations on the finest grids more affordable. The model has intermediate complexity, incorporating basin-scale geometry with idealized Atlantic and Southern oceans and with non-uniform ocean depth to allow for mesoscale eddy interactions with topography. The model is perfectly adiabatic and spans the Equator and thus fills a gap between quasi-geostrophic models, which cannot span two hemispheres, and idealized general circulation models, which generally include diabatic processes and buoyancy forcing. We show that the model solution is approaching convergence in mean kinetic energy for the ocean mesoscale processes of interest and has a rich range of dynamics with circulation features that emerge only due to resolving mesoscale turbulence.
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ArticleTowards comprehensive observing and modeling systems for monitoring and predicting regional to coastal sea level(Frontiers Media, 2019-07-25) Ponte, Rui M. ; Carson, Mark ; Cirano, Mauro ; Domingues, Catia M. ; Jevrejeva, Svetlana ; Marcos, Marta ; Mitchum, Gary ; van de Wal, Roderik S.W. ; Woodworth, Philip L. ; Ablain, Michaël ; Ardhuin, Fabrice ; Ballu, Valerie ; Becker, Mélanie ; Benveniste, Jérôme ; Birol, Florence ; Bradshaw, Elizabeth ; Cazenave, Anny ; De Mey-Frémaux, Pierre ; Durand, Fabien ; Ezer, Tal ; Fu, Lee-Lueng ; Fukumori, Ichiro ; Gordon, Kathy ; Gravelle, Médéric ; Griffies, Stephen M. ; Han, Weiqing ; Hibbert, Angela ; Hughes, Chris W. ; Idier, Deborah ; Kourafalou, Vassiliki H. ; Little, Christopher M. ; Matthews, Andrew ; Melet, Angelique ; Merrifield, Mark ; Meyssignac, Benoit ; Minobe, Shoshiro ; Penduff, Thierry ; Picot, Nicolas ; Piecuch, Christopher G. ; Ray, Richard D. ; Rickards, Lesley ; Santamaría-Gómez, Alvaro ; Stammer, Detlef ; Staneva, Joanna ; Testut, Laurent ; Thompson, Keith ; Thompson, Philip ; Vignudelli, Stefano ; Williams, Joanne ; Williams, Simon D. P. ; Wöppelmann, Guy ; Zanna, Laure ; Zhang, XuebinA major challenge for managing impacts and implementing effective mitigation measures and adaptation strategies for coastal zones affected by future sea level (SL) rise is our limited capacity to predict SL change at the coast on relevant spatial and temporal scales. Predicting coastal SL requires the ability to monitor and simulate a multitude of physical processes affecting SL, from local effects of wind waves and river runoff to remote influences of the large-scale ocean circulation on the coast. Here we assess our current understanding of the causes of coastal SL variability on monthly to multi-decadal timescales, including geodetic, oceanographic and atmospheric aspects of the problem, and review available observing systems informing on coastal SL. We also review the ability of existing models and data assimilation systems to estimate coastal SL variations and of atmosphere-ocean global coupled models and related regional downscaling efforts to project future SL changes. We discuss (1) observational gaps and uncertainties, and priorities for the development of an optimal and integrated coastal SL observing system, (2) strategies for advancing model capabilities in forecasting short-term processes and projecting long-term changes affecting coastal SL, and (3) possible future developments of sea level services enabling better connection of scientists and user communities and facilitating assessment and decision making for adaptation to future coastal SL change.