Little Ice Age climate in the Western Tropical Atlantic inferred from coral geochemical proxies

Abstract

Paleoclimate archives place the short instrumental record of climate variability in a longer temporal context and allow better understanding of the rate, nature and extent by which anthropogenic warming will impact natural and human systems. The ocean is a key component of the climate system and records of past ocean variability are thus essential for characterizing natural variability and quantifying climate sensitivity to radiative forcing. Coral skeletons are high-resolution archives of tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs), but inconsistencies call the accuracy of existing coral proxy records into question. In this thesis, I first quantify the errors associated with the traditional coral thermometer, Sr/Ca, by comparing in situ logged SST with Sr/Ca-derived SST in four corals on the same reef. I show that intercolony disparities in mean Sr/Ca, amplitude of variability, and trend are not due to differences in water temperature, but rather to “vital effects” that result in a ± 2 ̊C uncertainty on reconstructed SST. I then expand, refine, and test a new paleothermometer, Sr-U, across multiple coral species and through time. I show that Sr-U captures spatial SST variability with an uncertainty of ± 0.6 ̊C. When applied to two corals outside of the calibration, Sr-U accurately captures the mean SST and the 20th century trend in the Western Tropical Atlantic. Finally, I apply Sr-U to a coral from the Little Ice Age (LIA) to address uncertainties in the magnitude of western tropical Atlantic cooling during a 95-year period spanning 1465-1560. Results suggest the region was 1.1 ̊C±0.6°C cooler than the 1958-1988 mean, but within error of early 20th century SST at this site. Critically, several periods of warmth, equivalent to the 1958-1988 mean, occurred during a solar minimum that is widely believed to have been a cool period of the LIA. My results indicate that Sr/Ca exaggerates the actual cooling by almost 3 °C. My record demonstrates the value of Sr-U and highlights the need for continuous accurate SST records to better constrain the amplitude, drivers, and mechanisms of LIA tropical climate change.