Ferster Brady S.

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Ferster
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Brady S.
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  • Article
    Confirmation of ENSO-Southern Ocean teleconnections using satellite-derived SST
    (MDPI AG, 2018-02-23) Ferster, Brady S. ; Subrahmanyam, Bulusu ; Macdonald, Alison M.
    The Southern Ocean is the focus of many physical, chemical, and biological analyses due to its global importance and highly variable climate. This analysis of sea surface temperatures (SST) and global teleconnections shows that SSTs are significantly spatially correlated with both the Antarctic Oscillation and the Southern Oscillation, with spatial correlations between the indices and standardized SST anomalies approaching 1.0. Here, we report that the recent positive patterns in the Antarctic and Southern Oscillations are driving negative (cooling) trends in SST in the high latitude Southern Ocean and positive (warming) trends within the Southern Hemisphere sub-tropics and mid-latitudes. The coefficient of regression over the 35-year period analyzed implies that standardized temperatures have warmed at a rate of 0.0142 per year between 1982 and 2016 with a monthly standard error in the regression of 0.0008. Further regression calculations between the indices and SST indicate strong seasonality in response to changes in atmospheric circulation, with the strongest feedback occurring throughout the austral summer and autumn.
  • Article
    Arctic September sea ice concentration biases in CMIP6 models and their relationships with other model variables
    (American Meteorological Society, 2024-08-06) Frankignoul, Claude ; Raillard, Lea ; Ferster, Brady S. ; Kwon, Young-Oh
    The models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) exhibit large biases in Arctic sea ice climatology that seem related to biases in seasonal atmospheric and oceanic circulations. Using historical runs of 34 CMIP6 models from 1979 to 2014, we investigate the links between the climatological sea ice concentration (SIC) biases in September and atmospheric and oceanic model climatologies. The main intermodel spread of September SIC is well described by two leading EOFs, which together explain ∼65% of its variance. The first EOF represents an underestimation or overestimation of SIC in the whole Arctic, while the second EOF describes opposite SIC biases in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors. Regression analysis indicates that the two SIC modes are closely related to departures from the multimodel mean of Arctic surface heat fluxes during summer, primarily shortwave and longwave radiation, with incoming Atlantic Water playing a role in the Atlantic sector. Local and global links with summer cloud cover, low-level humidity, upper or lower troposphere temperature/circulation, and oceanic variables are also found. As illustrated for three climate models, the local relationships with the SIC biases are mostly similar in the Arctic across the models but show varying degrees of Atlantic inflow influence. On a global scale, a strong influence of the summer atmospheric circulation on September SIC is suggested for one of the three models, while the atmospheric influence is primarily via thermodynamics in the other two. Clear links to the North Atlantic oceanic circulation are seen in one of the models.