Rahmstorf Stefan

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    Climate related sea-level variations over the past two millennia
    ( 2011-03) Kemp, Andrew C. ; Horton, Benjamin P. ; Donnelly, Jeffrey P. ; Mann, Michael E. ; Vermeer, Martin ; Rahmstorf, Stefan
    We present new sea-level reconstructions for the past 2100 years based on salt-marsh sedimentary sequences from the US Atlantic coast. The data from North Carolina reveal four phases of persistent sea-level change after correction for glacial isostatic adjustment. Sea level was stable from at least BC 100 until AD 950. It then increased for 400 years at a rate of 0.6 mm/yr, followed by a further period of stable, or slightly falling, sea level that persisted until the late 19th century. Since then, sea level has risen at an average rate of 2.1 mm/yr, representing the steepest, century-scale increase of the past two millennia. This rate was initiated between AD 1865 and 1892. Using an extended semi-empirical modeling approach, we show that these sea-level changes are consistent with global temperature for at least the past millennium.