Lucas Andrew J.

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Andrew J.

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  • Article
    Submesoscale processes at shallow salinity fronts in the Bay of Bengal : observations during the winter monsoon
    (American Meteorological Society, 2018-02-26) Ramachandran, Sanjiv ; Tandon, Amit ; MacKinnon, Jennifer A. ; Lucas, Andrew J. ; Pinkel, Robert ; Waterhouse, Amy F. ; Nash, Jonathan D. ; Shroyer, Emily L. ; Mahadevan, Amala ; Weller, Robert A. ; Farrar, J. Thomas
    Lateral submesoscale processes and their influence on vertical stratification at shallow salinity fronts in the central Bay of Bengal during the winter monsoon are explored using high-resolution data from a cruise in November 2013. The observations are from a radiator survey centered at a salinity-controlled density front, embedded in a zone of moderate mesoscale strain (0.15 times the Coriolis parameter) and forced by winds with a downfront orientation. Below a thin mixed layer, often ≤10 m, the analysis shows several dynamical signatures indicative of submesoscale processes: (i) negative Ertel potential vorticity (PV); (ii) low-PV anomalies with O(1–10) km lateral extent, where the vorticity estimated on isopycnals and the isopycnal thickness are tightly coupled, varying in lockstep to yield low PV; (iii) flow conditions susceptible to forced symmetric instability (FSI) or bearing the imprint of earlier FSI events; (iv) negative lateral gradients in the absolute momentum field (inertial instability); and (v) strong contribution from differential sheared advection at O(1) km scales to the growth rate of the depth-averaged stratification. The findings here show one-dimensional vertical processes alone cannot explain the vertical stratification and its lateral variability over O(1–10) km scales at the radiator survey.
  • Article
    Penetrative radiative flux in the Bay of Bengal
    (The Oceanography Society, 2016-06) Lotliker, Aneesh ; Omand, Melissa M. ; Lucas, Andrew J. ; Laney, Samuel R. ; Mahadevan, Amala ; Ravichandran, M.
    The Bay of Bengal (BoB), a semi-enclosed basin in the northern Indian Ocean, is a complex region with large freshwater inputs and strong vertical stratification that result in a shallow, spatially variable mixed layer. With the exception of shortwave insolation, the air-sea heat exchange occurs at the sea surface and is vertically redistributed by mixing and advection. Strongly stratified, shallow mixed layers inhibit vertical mixing, and the penetration of solar radiation through the base of the mixed layer can lead to redistribution of upper-ocean heat. This paper compiles observations of hyperspectral downwelling irradiance (Ed) from 67 profiles collected during six research cruises in the BoB that span a broad range of regions and seasons between 2009 and 2014. We report attenuation length scales computed using double and single exponential models and quantify the penetration of radiative flux below the mixed layer depth (Qpen). We then evaluate estimates of Qpen obtained from published chlorophyll-based models and compare them to our observations. We find that the largest penetrative heat flux (up to 40% of the incident Ed) occurs near 16°N where the mixed layers are shallow and the water is optically clear.
  • Article
    A tale of two spicy seas
    (The Oceanography Society, 2016-06) MacKinnon, Jennifer A. ; Nash, Jonathan D. ; Alford, Matthew H. ; Lucas, Andrew J. ; Mickett, John B. ; Shroyer, Emily L. ; Waterhouse, Amy F. ; Tandon, Amit ; Sengupta, Debasis ; Mahadevan, Amala ; Ravichandran, M. ; Pinkel, Robert ; Rudnick, Daniel L. ; Whalen, Caitlin B. ; Alberty, Marion S. ; Lekha, J. Sree ; Fine, Elizabeth C. ; Chaudhuri, Dipayan ; Wagner, Gregory L.
    Upper-ocean turbulent heat fluxes in the Bay of Bengal and the Arctic Ocean drive regional monsoons and sea ice melt, respectively, important issues of societal interest. In both cases, accurate prediction of these heat transports depends on proper representation of the small-scale structure of vertical stratification, which in turn is created by a host of complex submesoscale processes. Though half a world apart and having dramatically different temperatures, there are surprising similarities between the two: both have (1) very fresh surface layers that are largely decoupled from the ocean below by a sharp halocline barrier, (2) evidence of interleaving lateral and vertical gradients that set upper-ocean stratification, and (3) vertical turbulent heat fluxes within the upper ocean that respond sensitively to these structures. However, there are clear differences in each ocean’s horizontal scales of variability, suggesting that despite similar background states, the sharpening and evolution of mesoscale gradients at convergence zones plays out quite differently. Here, we conduct a qualitative and statistical comparison of these two seas, with the goal of bringing to light fundamental underlying dynamics that will hopefully improve the accuracy of forecast models in both parts of the world.
  • Article
    Adrift upon a salinity-stratified sea : a view of upper-ocean processes in the Bay of Bengal during the southwest monsoon
    (The Oceanography Society, 2016-06) Lucas, Andrew J. ; Nash, Jonathan D. ; Pinkel, Robert ; MacKinnon, Jennifer A. ; Tandon, Amit ; Mahadevan, Amala ; Omand, Melissa M. ; Freilich, Mara ; Sengupta, Debasis ; Ravichandran, M. ; Le Boyer, Arnaud
    The structure and variability of upper-ocean properties in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) modulate air-sea interactions, which profoundly influence the pattern and intensity of monsoonal precipitation across the Indian subcontinent. In turn, the bay receives a massive amount of freshwater through river input at its boundaries and from heavy local rainfall, leading to a salinity-stratified surface ocean and shallow mixed layers. Small-scale oceanographic processes that drive variability in near-surface BoB waters complicate the tight coupling between ocean and atmosphere implicit in this seasonal feedback. Unraveling these ocean dynamics and their impact on air-sea interactions is critical to improving the forecasting of intraseasonal variability in the southwest monsoon. To that end, we deployed a wave-powered, rapidly profiling system capable of measuring the structure and variability of the upper 100 m of the BoB. The evolution of upper-ocean structure along the trajectory of the instrument’s roughly two-week drift, along with direct estimates of vertical fluxes of salt and heat, permit assessment of the contributions of various phenomena to temporal and spatial variability in the surface mixed layer depth. Further, these observations suggest that the particular “barrier-layer” stratification found in the BoB may decrease the influence of the wind on mixing processes in the interior, thus isolating the upper ocean from the interior below, and tightening its coupling to the atmosphere above.
  • Article
    Ocean observations to improve our understanding, modeling, and forecasting of subseasonal-to-seasonal variability
    (Frontiers Media, 2019-08-08) Subramanian, Aneesh C. ; Balmaseda, Magdalena A. ; Centurioni, Luca R. ; Chattopadhyay, Rajib ; Cornuelle, Bruce D. ; DeMott, Charlotte ; Flatau, Maria ; Fujii, Yosuke ; Giglio, Donata ; Gille, Sarah T. ; Hamill, Thomas M. ; Hendon, Harry ; Hoteit, Ibrahim ; Kumar, Arun ; Lee, Jae-Hak ; Lucas, Andrew J. ; Mahadevan, Amala ; Matsueda, Mio ; Nam, SungHyun ; Paturi, Shastri ; Penny, Stephen G. ; Rydbeck, Adam ; Sun, Rui ; Takaya, Yuhei ; Tandon, Amit ; Todd, Robert E. ; Vitart, Frederic ; Yuan, Dongliang ; Zhang, Chidong
    Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasts have the potential to provide advance information about weather and climate events. The high heat capacity of water means that the subsurface ocean stores and re-releases heat (and other properties) and is an important source of information for S2S forecasts. However, the subsurface ocean is challenging to observe, because it cannot be measured by satellite. Subsurface ocean observing systems relevant for understanding, modeling, and forecasting on S2S timescales will continue to evolve with the improvement in technological capabilities. The community must focus on designing and implementing low-cost, high-value surface and subsurface ocean observations, and developing forecasting system capable of extracting their observation potential in forecast applications. S2S forecasts will benefit significantly from higher spatio-temporal resolution data in regions that are sources of predictability on these timescales (coastal, tropical, and polar regions). While ENSO has been a driving force for the design of the current observing system, the subseasonal time scales present new observational requirements. Advanced observation technologies such as autonomous surface and subsurface profiling devices as well as satellites that observe the ocean-atmosphere interface simultaneously can lead to breakthroughs in coupled data assimilation (CDA) and coupled initialization for S2S forecasts. These observational platforms should also be tested and evaluated in ocean observation sensitivity experiments with current and future generation CDA and S2S prediction systems. Investments in the new ocean observations as well as model and DA system developments can lead to substantial returns on cost savings from disaster mitigation as well as socio–economic decisions that use S2S forecast information.
  • Article
    Observations of diurnal coastal-trapped waves with a thermocline-intensified velocity field
    (American Meteorological Society, 2019-07-16) Schlosser, Tamara L. ; Jones, Nicole L. ; Musgrave, Ruth C. ; Bluteau, Cynthia E. ; Ivey, Gregory N. ; Lucas, Andrew J.
    Using 18 days of field observations, we investigate the diurnal (D1) frequency wave dynamics on the Tasmanian eastern continental shelf. At this latitude, the D1 frequency is subinertial and separable from the highly energetic near-inertial motion. We use a linear coastal-trapped wave (CTW) solution with the observed background current, stratification, and shelf bathymetry to determine the modal structure of the first three resonant CTWs. We associate the observed D1 velocity with a superimposed mode-zero and mode-one CTW, with mode one dominating mode zero. Both the observed and mode-one D1 velocity was intensified near the thermocline, with stronger velocities occurring when the thermocline stratification was stronger and/or the thermocline was deeper (up to the shelfbreak depth). The CTW modal structure and amplitude varied with the background stratification and alongshore current, with no spring–neap relationship evident for the observed 18 days. Within the surface and bottom Ekman layers on the shelf, the observed velocity phase changed in the cross-shelf and/or vertical directions, inconsistent with an alongshore propagating CTW. In the near-surface and near-bottom regions, the linear CTW solution also did not match the observed velocity, particularly within the bottom Ekman layer. Boundary layer processes were likely causing this observed inconsistency with linear CTW theory. As linear CTW solutions have an idealized representation of boundary dynamics, they should be cautiously applied on the shelf.
  • Article
    On the development of SWOT in situ calibration/validation for short-wavelength ocean topography
    (American Meteorological Society, 2022-05-01) Wang, Jinbo ; Fu, Lee-Lueng ; Haines, Bruce ; Lankhorst, Matthias ; Lucas, Andrew J. ; Farrar, J. Thomas ; Send, Uwe ; Meinig, Christian ; Schofield, Oscar M. E. ; Ray, Richard D.
    The future Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission aims to map sea surface height (SSH) in wide swaths with an unprecedented spatial resolution and subcentimeter accuracy. The instrument performance needs to be verified using independent measurements in a process known as calibration and validation (Cal/Val). The SWOT Cal/Val needs in situ measurements that can make synoptic observations of SSH field over an O(100) km distance with an accuracy matching the SWOT requirements specified in terms of the along-track wavenumber spectrum of SSH error. No existing in situ observing system has been demonstrated to meet this challenge. A field campaign was conducted during September 2019–January 2020 to assess the potential of various instruments and platforms to meet the SWOT Cal/Val requirement. These instruments include two GPS buoys, two bottom pressure recorders (BPR), three moorings with fixed conductivity–temperature–depth (CTD) and CTD profilers, and a glider. The observations demonstrated that 1) the SSH (hydrostatic) equation can be closed with 1–3 cm RMS residual using BPR, CTD mooring and GPS SSH, and 2) using the upper-ocean steric height derived from CTD moorings enable subcentimeter accuracy in the California Current region during the 2019/20 winter. Given that the three moorings are separated at 10–20–30 km distance, the observations provide valuable information about the small-scale SSH variability associated with the ocean circulation at frequencies ranging from hourly to monthly in the region. The combined analysis sheds light on the design of the SWOT mission postlaunch Cal/Val field campaign.
  • Article
    How spice is stirred in the Bay of Bengal
    (American Meteorological Society, 2020-08-31) Spiro Jaeger, Gualtiero ; MacKinnon, Jennifer A. ; Lucas, Andrew J. ; Shroyer, Emily L. ; Nash, Jonathan D. ; Tandon, Amit ; Farrar, J. Thomas ; Mahadevan, Amala
    The scale-dependent variance of tracer properties in the ocean bears the imprint of the oceanic eddy field. Anomalies in spice (which combines anomalies in temperature T and salinity S on isopycnal surfaces) act as passive tracers beneath the surface mixed layer (ML). We present an analysis of spice distributions along isopycnals in the upper 200 m of the ocean, calculated with over 9000 vertical profiles of T and S measured along ~4800 km of ship tracks in the Bay of Bengal. The data are from three separate research cruises—in the winter monsoon season of 2013 and in the late and early summer monsoon seasons of 2015 and 2018. We present a spectral analysis of horizontal tracer variance statistics on scales ranging from the submesoscale (~1 km) to the mesoscale (~100 km). Isopycnal layers that are closer to the ML-base exhibit redder spectra of tracer variance at scales ≲10 km than is predicted by theories of quasigeostrophic turbulence or frontogenesis. Two plausible explanations are postulated. The first is that stirring by submesoscale motions and shear dispersion by near-inertial waves enhance effective horizontal mixing and deplete tracer variance at horizontal scales ≲10 km in this region. The second is that the spice anomalies are coherent with dynamical properties such as potential vorticity, and not interpretable as passively stirred.
  • Article
    ASIRI : an ocean–atmosphere initiative for Bay of Bengal
    (American Meteorological Society, 2016-11-22) Wijesekera, Hemantha W. ; Shroyer, Emily L. ; Tandon, Amit ; Ravichandran, M. ; Sengupta, Debasis ; Jinadasa, S. U. P. ; Fernando, Harindra J. S. ; Agrawal, Neeraj ; Arulananthan, India K. ; Bhat, G. S. ; Baumgartner, Mark F. ; Buckley, Jared ; Centurioni, Luca R. ; Conry, Patrick ; Farrar, J. Thomas ; Gordon, Arnold L. ; Hormann, Verena ; Jarosz, Ewa ; Jensen, Tommy G. ; Johnston, T. M. Shaun ; Lankhorst, Matthias ; Lee, Craig M. ; Leo, Laura S. ; Lozovatsky, Iossif ; Lucas, Andrew J. ; MacKinnon, Jennifer A. ; Mahadevan, Amala ; Nash, Jonathan D. ; Omand, Melissa M. ; Pham, Hieu ; Pinkel, Robert ; Rainville, Luc ; Ramachandran, Sanjiv ; Rudnick, Daniel L. ; Sarkar, Sutanu ; Send, Uwe ; Sharma, Rashmi ; Simmons, Harper L. ; Stafford, Kathleen M. ; St. Laurent, Louis C. ; Venayagamoorthy, Subhas K. ; Venkatesan, Ramasamy ; Teague, William J. ; Wang, David W. ; Waterhouse, Amy F. ; Weller, Robert A. ; Whalen, Caitlin B.
    Air–Sea Interactions in the Northern Indian Ocean (ASIRI) is an international research effort (2013–17) aimed at understanding and quantifying coupled atmosphere–ocean dynamics of the Bay of Bengal (BoB) with relevance to Indian Ocean monsoons. Working collaboratively, more than 20 research institutions are acquiring field observations coupled with operational and high-resolution models to address scientific issues that have stymied the monsoon predictability. ASIRI combines new and mature observational technologies to resolve submesoscale to regional-scale currents and hydrophysical fields. These data reveal BoB’s sharp frontal features, submesoscale variability, low-salinity lenses and filaments, and shallow mixed layers, with relatively weak turbulent mixing. Observed physical features include energetic high-frequency internal waves in the southern BoB, energetic mesoscale and submesoscale features including an intrathermocline eddy in the central BoB, and a high-resolution view of the exchange along the periphery of Sri Lanka, which includes the 100-km-wide East India Coastal Current (EICC) carrying low-salinity water out of the BoB and an adjacent, broad northward flow (∼300 km wide) that carries high-salinity water into BoB during the northeast monsoon. Atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) observations during the decaying phase of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) permit the study of multiscale atmospheric processes associated with non-MJO phenomena and their impacts on the marine boundary layer. Underway analyses that integrate observations and numerical simulations shed light on how air–sea interactions control the ABL and upper-ocean processes.
  • Article
    Quasi-biweekly mode of the Asian summer monsoon revealed in Bay of Bengal surface observations
    (American Geophysical Union, 2020-11-16) Lekha, J. Sree ; Lucas, Andrew J. ; Sukhatme, Jai ; Joseph, Jossia K. ; Ravichandran, M. ; Kumar, N. Suresh ; Farrar, J. Thomas ; Sengupta, Debasis
    Asian summer monsoon has a planetary‐scale, westward propagating “quasi‐biweekly” mode of variability with a 10–25 day period. Six years of moored observations at 18°N, 89.5°E in the north Bay of Bengal (BoB) reveal distinct quasi‐biweekly variability in sea surface salinity (SSS) during summer and autumn, with peak‐to‐peak amplitude of 3–8 psu. This large‐amplitude SSS variability is not due to variations of surface freshwater flux or river runoff. We show from the moored data, satellite SSS, and reanalyses that surface winds associated with the quasi‐biweekly monsoon mode and embedded weather‐scale systems, drive SSS and coastal sea level variability in 2015 summer monsoon. When winds are calm, geostrophic currents associated with mesoscale ocean eddies transport Ganga‐Brahmaputra‐Meghna river water southward to the mooring, salinity falls, and the ocean mixed layer shallows to 1–10 m. During active (cloudy, windy) spells of quasi‐biweekly monsoon mode, directly wind‐forced surface currents carry river water away to the east and north, leading to increased salinity at the moorings, and rise of sea level by 0.1–0.5 m along the eastern and northern boundary of the bay. During July–August 2015, a shallow pool of low‐salinity river water lies in the northeastern bay. The amplitude of a 20‐day oscillation of sea surface temperature (SST) is two times larger within the fresh pool than in the saltier ocean to the west, although surface heat flux is nearly identical in the two regions. This is direct evidence that spatial‐temporal variations of BoB salinity influences sub‐seasonal SST variations, and possibly SST‐mediated monsoon air‐sea interaction.
  • Article
    Northern Arabian Sea Circulation-Autonomous Research (NASCar) : a research initiative based on autonomous sensors
    (Oceanography Society, 2017-06) Centurioni, Luca R. ; Hormann, Verena ; Talley, Lynne D. ; Arzeno, Isabella B. ; Beal, Lisa M. ; Caruso, Michael J. ; Conry, Patrick ; Echols, Rosalind ; Fernando, Harindra J. S. ; Giddings, Sarah N. ; Gordon, Arnold L. ; Graber, Hans C. ; Harcourt, Ramsey R. ; Jayne, Steven R. ; Jensen, Tommy G. ; Lee, Craig M. ; Lermusiaux, Pierre F. J. ; L’Hegaret, Pierre ; Lucas, Andrew J. ; Mahadevan, Amala ; McClean, Julie L. ; Pawlak, Geno ; Rainville, Luc ; Riser, Stephen C. ; Seo, Hyodae ; Shcherbina, Andrey Y. ; Skyllingstad, Eric D. ; Sprintall, Janet ; Subrahmanyam, Bulusu ; Terrill, Eric ; Todd, Robert E. ; Trott, Corinne ; Ulloa, Hugo N. ; Wang, He
    The Arabian Sea circulation is forced by strong monsoonal winds and is characterized by vigorous seasonally reversing currents, extreme differences in sea surface salinity, localized substantial upwelling, and widespread submesoscale thermohaline structures. Its complicated sea surface temperature patterns are important for the onset and evolution of the Asian monsoon. This article describes a program that aims to elucidate the role of upper-ocean processes and atmospheric feedbacks in setting the sea surface temperature properties of the region. The wide range of spatial and temporal scales and the difficulty of accessing much of the region with ships due to piracy motivated a novel approach based on state-of-the-art autonomous ocean sensors and platforms. The extensive data set that is being collected, combined with numerical models and remote sensing data, confirms the role of planetary waves in the reversal of the Somali Current system. These data also document the fast response of the upper equatorial ocean to monsoon winds through changes in temperature and salinity and the connectivity of the surface currents across the northern Indian Ocean. New observations of thermohaline interleaving structures and mixing in setting the surface temperature properties of the northern Arabian Sea are also discussed.
  • Article
    A warm jet in a cold ocean
    (Nature Research, 2021-04-23) MacKinnon, Jennifer A. ; Simmons, Harper L. ; Hargrove, John ; Thomson, Jim ; Peacock, Thomas ; Alford, Matthew H. ; Barton, Benjamin I. ; Boury, Samuel ; Brenner, Samuel D. ; Couto, Nicole ; Danielson, Seth L. ; Fine, Elizabeth C. ; Graber, Hans C. ; Guthrie, John D. ; Hopkins, Joanne E. ; Jayne, Steven R. ; Jeon, Chanhyung ; Klenz, Thilo ; Lee, Craig M. ; Lenn, Yueng-Djern ; Lucas, Andrew J. ; Lund, Björn ; Mahaffey, Claire ; Norman, Louisa ; Rainville, Luc ; Smith, Madison M. ; Thomas, Leif N. ; Torres-Valdes, Sinhue ; Wood, Kevin R.
    Unprecedented quantities of heat are entering the Pacific sector of the Arctic Ocean through Bering Strait, particularly during summer months. Though some heat is lost to the atmosphere during autumn cooling, a significant fraction of the incoming warm, salty water subducts (dives beneath) below a cooler fresher layer of near-surface water, subsequently extending hundreds of kilometers into the Beaufort Gyre. Upward turbulent mixing of these sub-surface pockets of heat is likely accelerating sea ice melt in the region. This Pacific-origin water brings both heat and unique biogeochemical properties, contributing to a changing Arctic ecosystem. However, our ability to understand or forecast the role of this incoming water mass has been hampered by lack of understanding of the physical processes controlling subduction and evolution of this this warm water. Crucially, the processes seen here occur at small horizontal scales not resolved by regional forecast models or climate simulations; new parameterizations must be developed that accurately represent the physics. Here we present novel high resolution observations showing the detailed process of subduction and initial evolution of warm Pacific-origin water in the southern Beaufort Gyre.
  • Article
    Bay of Bengal intraseasonal oscillations and the 2018 monsoon onset
    (American Meteorological Society, 2021-10-01) Shroyer, Emily L. ; Tandon, Amit ; Sengupta, Debasis ; Fernando, Harindra J. S. ; Lucas, Andrew J. ; Farrar, J. Thomas ; Chattopadhyay, Rajib ; de Szoeke, Simon P. ; Flatau, Maria ; Rydbeck, Adam ; Wijesekera, Hemantha W. ; McPhaden, Michael J. ; Seo, Hyodae ; Subramanian, Aneesh C. ; Venkatesan, Ramasamy ; Joseph, Jossia K. ; Ramsundaram, S. ; Gordon, Arnold L. ; Bohman, Shannon M. ; Pérez, Jaynise ; Simoes-Sousa, Iury T. ; Jayne, Steven R. ; Todd, Robert E. ; Bhat, G. S. ; Lankhorst, Matthias ; Schlosser, Tamara L. ; Adams, Katherine ; Jinadasa, S. U. P. ; Mathur, Manikandan ; Mohapatra, Mrutyunjay ; Rama Rao, E. Pattabhi ; Sahai, Atul Kumar ; Sharma, Rashmi ; Lee, Craig ; Rainville, Luc ; Cherian, Deepak A. ; Cullen, Kerstin ; Centurioni, Luca R. ; Hormann, Verena ; MacKinnon, Jennifer A. ; Send, Uwe ; Anutaliya, Arachaporn ; Waterhouse, Amy F. ; Black, Garrett S. ; Dehart, Jeremy A. ; Woods, Kaitlyn M. ; Creegan, Edward ; Levy, Gad ; Kantha, Lakshmi ; Subrahmanyam, Bulusu
    In the Bay of Bengal, the warm, dry boreal spring concludes with the onset of the summer monsoon and accompanying southwesterly winds, heavy rains, and variable air–sea fluxes. Here, we summarize the 2018 monsoon onset using observations collected through the multinational Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations in the Bay of Bengal (MISO-BoB) program between the United States, India, and Sri Lanka. MISO-BoB aims to improve understanding of monsoon intraseasonal variability, and the 2018 field effort captured the coupled air–sea response during a transition from active-to-break conditions in the central BoB. The active phase of the ∼20-day research cruise was characterized by warm sea surface temperature (SST > 30°C), cold atmospheric outflows with intermittent heavy rainfall, and increasing winds (from 2 to 15 m s−1). Accumulated rainfall exceeded 200 mm with 90% of precipitation occurring during the first week. The following break period was both dry and clear, with persistent 10–12 m s−1 wind and evaporation of 0.2 mm h−1. The evolving environmental state included a deepening ocean mixed layer (from ∼20 to 50 m), cooling SST (by ∼1°C), and warming/drying of the lower to midtroposphere. Local atmospheric development was consistent with phasing of the large-scale intraseasonal oscillation. The upper ocean stores significant heat in the BoB, enough to maintain SST above 29°C despite cooling by surface fluxes and ocean mixing. Comparison with reanalysis indicates biases in air–sea fluxes, which may be related to overly cool prescribed SST. Resolution of such biases offers a path toward improved forecasting of transition periods in the monsoon.