Shin Jongsoo

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Last Name
Shin
First Name
Jongsoo
ORCID
0000-0002-3199-7646

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Now showing 1 - 6 of 6
  • Article
    Ocean fronts as decadal thermostats modulating continental warming hiatus
    (Nature Research, 2023-11-27) Sung, Mi-Kyung ; An, Soon-Il ; Shin, Jongsoo ; Park, Jae-Heung ; Yang, Young-Min ; Kim, Hyo-Jeong ; Chang, Minhee
    Over the past decade, an unexpected cooling trend has been observed in East Asia and North America during winter. Climate model simulations suggest that this pattern of stalled warming, besides accelerated warming, will repeat throughout the course of global warming, influenced by the natural decade-long variations in the climate system. However, understanding the exact factors affecting the pace of warming remains a challenge. Here we show that a pause in warming over continental areas—namely, local warming hiatus—can be accompanied by excessive heat accumulation north of the ocean fronts. This oceanic condition, often manifesting in the form of marine heatwaves, constrains the subseasonal growth of atmospheric planetary waves, significantly increasing the likelihood of cold extremes in downstream continents. Our results underscore the importance of closely monitoring changing ocean fronts in response to human-induced warming, which can potentially reshape the inherent decade-long fluctuations within regional climates over the long term.
  • Article
    Hysteresis of European summer precipitation under a symmetric CO2 ramp-up and ramp-down pathway
    (IOP Publishing, 2024-06-18) Im, Nari ; Kim, Daehyun ; An, Soon-Il ; Paik, Seungmok ; Kim, Soong-Ki ; Shin, Jongsoo ; Min, Seung-Ki ; Kug, Jong-Seong ; Oh, Hyoeun
    This study investigates the mechanism of the hysteresis of European summer mean precipitation in a CO2 removal (CDR) simulation. The European summer mean precipitation exhibits robust hysteresis in response to the CO2 forcing; after decreasing substantially (∼40%) during the ramp-up period, it shows delayed recovery during the ramp-down period. We found that the precipitation hysteresis over Europe is tied to the hysteresis in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). During the ramp-down period, an anomalous high surface pressure circulation prevails over Europe. The anomalous high pressure system is a baroclinic response of the atmosphere to strong North Atlantic cooling associated with a weakened AMOC. This anomalous circulation suppresses summertime convective activity over the entire Europe by decreasing near-surface moist enthalpy in Central and Northern Europe while increasing lower free-tropospheric temperature in Southern Europe. Our findings underscore the need to understand complex interactions in the Earth system for reliable future projections of regional precipitation change under CDR scenarios.
  • Article
    Basin-dependent response of Northern Hemisphere winter blocking frequency to CO2 removal
    (Nature Research, 2024-05-23) Hwang, Jaeyoung ; Son, Seok-Woo ; Martineau, Patrick ; Sung, Mi-Kyung ; Barriopedro, David ; An, Soon-Il ; Yeh, Sang-Wook ; Min, Seung-Ki ; Kug, Jong-Seong ; Shin, Jongsoo
    Atmospheric blocking has been identified as one of the key elements of the extratropical atmospheric variabilities, controlling extreme weather events in mid-latitudes. Future projections indicate that Northern Hemisphere winter blocking frequency may decrease as CO2 concentrations increase. Here, we show that such changes may not be reversed when CO2 concentrations return to the current levels. Blocking frequency instead exhibits basin-dependent changes in response to CO2 removal. While the North Atlantic blocking frequency recovers gradually from the CO2-induced eastward shift, the North Pacific blocking frequency under the CO2 removal remains lower than its initial state. These basin-dependent blocking frequency changes result from background flow changes and their interactions with high-frequency eddies. Both high-frequency eddy and background flow changes determine North Atlantic blocking changes, whereas high-frequency eddy changes dominate the slow recovery of North Pacific blocking. Our results indicate that blocking-related extreme events in the Northern Hemisphere winter may not monotonically respond to CO2 removal.
  • Article
    Fast reduction of Atlantic SST threatens Europe-wide gross primary productivity under positive and negative CO2 emissions
    (Wiley, 2024-06-01) Yang, Young-Min ; Shin, Jongsoo ; Park, So-Won ; Park, Jae-Heung ; An, Soon-Il ; Kug, Jong-Seong ; Yeh, Sang-Wook ; Lee, June-Yi ; Wang, Bin ; Li, Tim ; Im, Nari
    Climate change mitigation through negative CO2 emissions has been recognized as a crucial strategy to combat global warming. However, its potential effects on terrestrial productivity and agricultural activities remain uncertain. In this study, we utilized large ensemble simulations with an Earth system model of full complexity to investigate the response of Gross Primary Production (GPP) to CO2 forcings. Our findings reveal a significant asymmetry in the GPP response to CO2 ramp-up and symmetric ramp-down model experiments, especially in Europe, suggesting that GPP declines rapidly as CO2 levels decrease. Remarkably, during the CO2 removal period, the North Atlantic Sea surface temperature experienced cooling due to a delayed recovery of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). This cooling led to precipitation and soil moisture deficits, resulting in a rapid reduction in GPP. This asymmetry in GPP response holds consistent across multi-model simulations. These results underscore the potential implications of delayed recovery in ocean circulation, which could unexpectedly accelerate terrestrial GPP reduction. These insights are crucial for policymakers, aiding them in projecting agricultural activity and formulating targeted GPP control policies specific to the European region.
  • Article
    Deep ocean warming-induced El Niño changes
    (Nature Research, 2024-07-23) Kim, Geon-Il ; Oh, Ji-Hoon ; Shin, Na-Yeon ; An, Soon-Il ; Yeh, Sang-Wook ; Shin, Jongsoo ; Kug, Jong-Seong
    The deep ocean, a vast thermal reservoir, absorbs excess heat under greenhouse warming, which ultimately regulates the Earth’s surface climate. Even if CO2 emissions are successfully reduced, the stored heat will gradually be released, resulting in a particular pattern of ocean warming. Here, we show that deep ocean warming will lead to El Niño-like ocean warming and resultant increased precipitation in the tropical eastern Pacific with southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone. Consequently, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation shifts eastward, intensifying Eastern Pacific El Niño events. In particular, the deep ocean warming could increase convective extreme El Niño events by 40 to 80% relative to the current climate. Our findings suggest that anthropogenic greenhouse warming will have a prolonged impact on El Niño variability through delayed deep ocean warming, even if CO2 stabilization is achieved.
  • Article
    Irreversible changes in the sea surface temperature threshold for tropical convection to CO2 forcing
    (Nature Research, 2024-11-05) Park, In-Hong ; Yeh, Sang-Wook ; Min, Seung-Ki ; An, Soon-Il ; Xie, Shang-Ping ; Shin, Jongsoo
    Tropical convection plays a critical role in modulating the global climate by influencing climate variability. However, its future projection under climate mitigation scenarios remains uncertain. Here, we found that while the relationship between precipitation intensity and upward motion remains constant regardless of changing CO2 concentrations, the sea surface temperature threshold for tropical convection and the convective zone exhibit hysteretic and irreversible behavior. As the CO2 concentration decreases from its peak (ramp-down), higher tropical ocean temperature leads to higher sea surface temperature thresholds for convection than during the period of increasing CO2 concentration (ramp-up), while convective instability remains the same during both ramp-up and ramp-down. El Niño-like warming during the ramp-down leads to a weakening of the Walker circulation and an expansion of the convective zone in the central to eastern tropical Pacific by a warmer-get-wetter mechanism. Our results suggest that CO2 removal does not guarantee the recovery of tropical convection.