Gesch Dean B.

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Gesch
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Dean B.
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  • Article
    Effects of sea-level rise on barrier island groundwater system dynamics – ecohydrological implications
    (John Wiley & Sons, 2014-11-12) Masterson, John P. ; Fienen, Michael N. ; Thieler, E. Robert ; Gesch, Dean B. ; Gutierrez, Benjamin T. ; Plant, Nathaniel G.
    We used a numerical model to investigate how a barrier island groundwater system responds to increases of up to 60 cm in sea level. We found that a sea-level rise of 20 cm leads to substantial changes in the depth of the water table and the extent and depth of saltwater intrusion, which are key determinants in the establishment, distribution and succession of vegetation assemblages and habitat suitability in barrier islands ecosystems. In our simulations, increases in water-table height in areas with a shallow depth to water (or thin vadose zone) resulted in extensive groundwater inundation of land surface and a thinning of the underlying freshwater lens. We demonstrated the interdependence of the groundwater response to island morphology by evaluating changes at three sites. This interdependence can have a profound effect on ecosystem composition in these fragile coastal landscapes under long-term changing climatic conditions.
  • Preprint
    Evaluation of dynamic coastal response to sea-level rise modifies inundation likelihood
    ( 2016-02) Lentz, Erika E. ; Thieler, E. Robert ; Plant, Nathaniel G. ; Stippa, Sawyer R. ; Horton, Radley M. ; Gesch, Dean B.
    Sea-level rise (SLR) poses a range of threats to natural and built environments1, 2, making assessments of SLR-induced hazards essential for informed decision-making3. We develop a probabilistic model that evaluates the likelihood that an area will inundate (flood) or dynamically respond (adapt) to SLR. The broad-area applicability of the approach is demonstrated by producing 30x30 m resolution predictions for more than 38,000 km2 of diverse coastal landscape in the northeastern United States (U.S.). Probabilistic SLR projections, coastal elevation, and vertical land movement are used to estimate likely future inundation levels. Then, conditioned on future inundation levels and the current land-cover type, we evaluate the likelihood of dynamic response vs. inundation. We find that nearly 70% of this coastal landscape has some capacity to respond dynamically to SLR, and we show that inundation models over-predict land likely to submerge. This approach is well-suited to guiding coastal resource management decisions that weigh future SLR impacts and uncertainty against ecological targets and economic constraints.