Sutton Rowan

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Sutton
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Rowan
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  • Article
    Atlantic climate variability and predictability : a CLIVAR perspective
    (American Meteorological Society, 2006-10-15) Hurrell, James W. ; Visbeck, Martin ; Busalacchi, Antonio J. ; Clarke, R. A. ; Delworth, T. L. ; Dickson, R. R. ; Johns, William E. ; Koltermann, K. P. ; Kushnir, Yochanan ; Marshall, David P. ; Mauritzen, Cecilie ; McCartney, Michael S. ; Piola, Alberto R. ; Reason, C. ; Reverdin, Gilles ; Schott, F. ; Sutton, R. ; Wainer, I. ; Wright, Daniel G.
    Three interrelated climate phenomena are at the center of the Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Atlantic research: tropical Atlantic variability (TAV), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). These phenomena produce a myriad of impacts on society and the environment on seasonal, interannual, and longer time scales through variability manifest as coherent fluctuations in ocean and land temperature, rainfall, and extreme events. Improved understanding of this variability is essential for assessing the likely range of future climate fluctuations and the extent to which they may be predictable, as well as understanding the potential impact of human-induced climate change. CLIVAR is addressing these issues through prioritized and integrated plans for short-term and sustained observations, basin-scale reanalysis, and modeling and theoretical investigations of the coupled Atlantic climate system and its links to remote regions. In this paper, a brief review of the state of understanding of Atlantic climate variability and achievements to date is provided. Considerable discussion is given to future challenges related to building and sustaining observing systems, developing synthesis strategies to support understanding and attribution of observed change, understanding sources of predictability, and developing prediction systems in order to meet the scientific objectives of the CLIVAR Atlantic program.
  • Article
    A review of the role of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in Atlantic multidecadal variability and associated climate impacts
    (American Geophysical Union, 2019-04-29) Zhang, Rong ; Sutton, Rowan ; Danabasoglu, Gokhan ; Kwon, Young-Oh ; Marsh, Robert ; Yeager, Stephen G. ; Amrhein, Daniel E. ; Little, Christopher M.
    By synthesizing recent studies employing a wide range of approaches (modern observations, paleo reconstructions, and climate model simulations), this paper provides a comprehensive review of the linkage between multidecadal Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) variability and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) and associated climate impacts. There is strong observational and modeling evidence that multidecadal AMOC variability is a crucial driver of the observed AMV and associated climate impacts and an important source of enhanced decadal predictability and prediction skill. The AMOC‐AMV linkage is consistent with observed key elements of AMV. Furthermore, this synthesis also points to a leading role of the AMOC in a range of AMV‐related climate phenomena having enormous societal and economic implications, for example, Intertropical Convergence Zone shifts; Sahel and Indian monsoons; Atlantic hurricanes; El Niño–Southern Oscillation; Pacific Decadal Variability; North Atlantic Oscillation; climate over Europe, North America, and Asia; Arctic sea ice and surface air temperature; and hemispheric‐scale surface temperature. Paleoclimate evidence indicates that a similar linkage between multidecadal AMOC variability and AMV and many associated climate impacts may also have existed in the preindustrial era, that AMV has enhanced multidecadal power significantly above a red noise background, and that AMV is not primarily driven by external forcing. The role of the AMOC in AMV and associated climate impacts has been underestimated in most state‐of‐the‐art climate models, posing significant challenges but also great opportunities for substantial future improvements in understanding and predicting AMV and associated climate impacts.