Sen Gupta
Alexander
Sen Gupta
Alexander
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ArticleDrivers and impacts of the most extreme marine heatwaves events(Nature Research, 2020-11-09) Sen Gupta, Alexander ; Thomsen, Mads ; Benthuysen, Jessica A. ; Hobday, Alistair J. ; Oliver, Eric ; Alexander, Lisa V. ; Burrows, Michael T. ; Donat, Markus G. ; Feng, Ming ; Holbrook, Neil J. ; Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah ; Moore, Pippa J. ; Rodrigues, Regina ; Scannell, Hillary A. ; Taschetto, Andrea S. ; Ummenhofer, Caroline C. ; Wernberg, Thomas ; Smale, Dan A.Prolonged high-temperature extreme events in the ocean, marine heatwaves, can have severe and long-lasting impacts on marine ecosystems, fisheries and associated services. This study applies a marine heatwave framework to analyse a global sea surface temperature product and identify the most extreme events, based on their intensity, duration and spatial extent. Many of these events have yet to be described in terms of their physical attributes, generation mechanisms, or ecological impacts. Our synthesis identifies commonalities between marine heatwave characteristics and seasonality, links to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, triggering processes and impacts on ocean productivity. The most intense events preferentially occur in summer, when climatological oceanic mixed layers are shallow and winds are weak, but at a time preceding climatological maximum sea surface temperatures. Most subtropical extreme marine heatwaves were triggered by persistent atmospheric high-pressure systems and anomalously weak wind speeds, associated with increased insolation, and reduced ocean heat losses. Furthermore, the most extreme events tended to coincide with reduced chlorophyll-a concentration at low and mid-latitudes. Understanding the importance of the oceanic background state, local and remote drivers and the ocean productivity response from past events are critical steps toward improving predictions of future marine heatwaves and their impacts.
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ArticleHow did ocean warming affect Australian rainfall extremes during the 2010/2011 La Niña event?(John Wiley & Sons, 2015-11-19) Ummenhofer, Caroline C. ; Sen Gupta, Alexander ; England, Matthew H. ; Taschetto, Andrea S. ; Briggs, Peter R. ; Raupach, Michael R.Extreme rainfall conditions in Australia during the 2010/2011 La Niña resulted in devastating floods claiming 35 lives, causing billions of dollars in damages, and far-reaching impacts on global climate, including a significant drop in global sea level and record terrestrial carbon uptake. Northeast Australian 2010/2011 rainfall was 84% above average, unusual even for a strong La Niña, and soil moisture conditions were unprecedented since 1950. Here we demonstrate that the warmer background state increased the likelihood of the extreme rainfall response. Using atmospheric general circulation model experiments with 2010/2011 ocean conditions with and without long-term warming, we identify the mechanisms that increase the likelihood of extreme rainfall: additional ocean warming enhanced onshore moisture transport onto Australia and ascent and precipitation over the northeast. Our results highlight the role of long-term ocean warming for modifying rain-producing atmospheric circulation conditions, increasing the likelihood of extreme precipitation for Australia during future La Niña events.
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ArticleEvaluation of monsoon seasonality and the tropospheric biennial oscillation transitions in the CMIP models(American Geophysical Union, 2012-10-26) Li, Yue ; Jourdain, Nicolas C. ; Taschetto, Andrea S. ; Ummenhofer, Caroline C. ; Ashok, Karumuri ; Sen Gupta, AlexanderCharacteristics of the Indian and Australian summer monsoon systems, their seasonality and interactions are examined in a variety of observational datasets and in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 and 5 (CMIP3 and CMIP5) climate models. In particular, it is examined whether preferred monsoon transitions between the two regions and from one year to another, that form parts of the Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation, can lead to improved predictive skill. An overall improvement in simulation of seasonality for both monsoons is seen in CMIP5 over CMIP3, with most CMIP5 models correctly simulating very low rainfall rates outside of the monsoon season. The predictability resulting from each transition is quantified using a Monte Carlo technique. The transition from strong/weak Indian monsoon to strong/weak Australian monsoon shows ∼15% enhanced predictability in the observations, in estimating whether the following monsoon will be stronger/weaker than the climatology. Most models also successfully simulate this transition. However, enhanced predictability for other transitions is less clear.
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ArticleCold tongue and warm pool ENSO events in CMIP5 : mean state and future projections(American Meteorological Society, 2014-04-15) Taschetto, Andrea S. ; Sen Gupta, Alexander ; Jourdain, Nicolas C. ; Santoso, Agus ; Ummenhofer, Caroline C. ; England, Matthew H.The representation of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) under historical forcing and future projections is analyzed in 34 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Most models realistically simulate the observed intensity and location of maximum sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies during ENSO events. However, there exist systematic biases in the westward extent of ENSO-related SST anomalies, driven by unrealistic westward displacement and enhancement of the equatorial wind stress in the western Pacific. Almost all CMIP5 models capture the observed asymmetry in magnitude between the warm and cold events (i.e., El Niños are stronger than La Niñas) and between the two types of El Niños: that is, cold tongue (CT) El Niños are stronger than warm pool (WP) El Niños. However, most models fail to reproduce the asymmetry between the two types of La Niñas, with CT stronger than WP events, which is opposite to observations. Most models capture the observed peak in ENSO amplitude around December; however, the seasonal evolution of ENSO has a large range of behavior across the models. The CMIP5 models generally reproduce the duration of CT El Niños but have biases in the evolution of the other types of events. The evolution of WP El Niños suggests that the decay of this event occurs through heat content discharge in the models rather than the advection of SST via anomalous zonal currents, as seems to occur in observations. No consistent changes are seen across the models in the location and magnitude of maximum SST anomalies, frequency, or temporal evolution of these events in a warmer world.
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ArticleCan Australian multiyear droughts and wet spells be generated in the absence of oceanic variability?(American Meteorological Society, 2016-08-19) Taschetto, Andrea S. ; Sen Gupta, Alexander ; Ummenhofer, Caroline C. ; England, Matthew H.Anomalous conditions in the tropical oceans, such as those related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean dipole, have been previously blamed for extended droughts and wet periods in Australia. Yet the extent to which Australian wet and dry spells can be driven by internal atmospheric variability remains unclear. Natural variability experiments are examined to determine whether prolonged extreme wet and dry periods can arise from internal atmospheric and land variability alone. Results reveal that this is indeed the case; however, these dry and wet events are found to be less severe than in simulations incorporating coupled oceanic variability. Overall, ocean feedback processes increase the magnitude of Australian rainfall variability by about 30% and give rise to more spatially coherent rainfall impacts. Over mainland Australia, ocean interactions lead to more frequent extreme events, particularly during the rainy season. Over Tasmania, in contrast, ocean–atmosphere coupling increases mean rainfall throughout the year. While ocean variability makes Australian rainfall anomalies more severe, droughts and wet spells of duration longer than three years are equally likely to occur in both atmospheric- and ocean-driven simulations. Moreover, they are essentially indistinguishable from what one expects from a Gaussian white noise distribution. Internal atmosphere–land-driven megadroughts and megapluvials that last as long as ocean-driven events are also identified in the simulations. This suggests that oceanic variability may be less important than previously assumed for the long-term persistence of Australian rainfall anomalies. This poses a challenge to accurate prediction of long-term dry and wet spells for Australia.
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ArticleTropical pacific observing system(Frontiers Media, 2019-02-18) Smith, Neville ; Kessler, William S. ; Cravatte, Sophie ; Sprintall, Janet ; Wijffels, Susan E. ; Cronin, Meghan F. ; Sutton, Adrienne J. ; Serra, Yolande L. ; Dewitte, Boris ; Strutton, Peter G. ; Hill, Katherine Louise ; Sen Gupta, Alexander ; Lin, Xiaopei ; Takahashi, Ken ; Chen, Dake ; Brunner, ShelbyThis paper reviews the design of the Tropical Pacific Observing System (TPOS) and its governance and takes a forward look at prospective change. The initial findings of the TPOS 2020 Project embrace new strategic approaches and technologies in a user-driven design and the variable focus of the Framework for Ocean Observing. User requirements arise from climate prediction and research, climate change and the climate record, and coupled modeling and data assimilation more generally. Requirements include focus on the upper ocean and air-sea interactions, sampling of diurnal variations, finer spatial scales and emerging demands related to biogeochemistry and ecosystems. One aim is to sample a diversity of climatic regimes in addition to the equatorial zone. The status and outlook for meeting the requirements of the design are discussed. This is accomplished through integrated and complementary capabilities of networks, including satellites, moorings, profiling floats and autonomous vehicles. Emerging technologies and methods are also discussed. The outlook highlights a few new foci of the design: biogeochemistry and ecosystems, low-latitude western boundary currents and the eastern Pacific. Low latitude western boundary currents are conduits of tropical-subtropical interactions, supplying waters of mid to high latitude origin to the western equatorial Pacific and into the Indonesian Throughflow. They are an essential part of the recharge/discharge of equatorial warm water volume at interannual timescales and play crucial roles in climate variability on regional and global scales. The tropical eastern Pacific, where extreme El Niño events develop, requires tailored approaches owing to the complex of processes at work there involving coastal upwelling, and equatorial cold tongue dynamics, the oxygen minimum zone and the seasonal double Intertropical Convergence Zone. A pilot program building on existing networks is envisaged, complemented by a process study of the East Pacific ITCZ/warm pool/cold tongue/stratus coupled system. The sustainability of TPOS depends on effective and strong collaborative partnerships and governance arrangements. Revisiting regional mechanisms and engaging new partners in the context of a planned and systematic design will ensure a multi-purpose, multi-faceted integrated approach that is sustainable and responsive to changing needs.
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ArticleGlobal perspectives on observing ocean boundary current systems(Frontiers Media, 2019-08-08) Todd, Robert E. ; Chavez, Francisco P. ; Clayton, Sophie A. ; Cravatte, Sophie ; Goes, Marlos Pereira ; Graco, Michelle ; Lin, Xiaopei ; Sprintall, Janet ; Zilberman, Nathalie ; Archer, Matthew ; Arístegui, Javier ; Balmaseda, Magdalena A. ; Bane, John M. ; Baringer, Molly O. ; Barth, John A. ; Beal, Lisa M. ; Brandt, Peter ; Calil, Paulo H. R. ; Campos, Edmo ; Centurioni, Luca R. ; Chidichimo, Maria Paz ; Cirano, Mauro ; Cronin, Meghan F. ; Curchitser, Enrique N. ; Davis, Russ E. ; Dengler, Marcus ; deYoung, Brad ; Dong, Shenfu ; Escribano, Ruben ; Fassbender, Andrea ; Fawcett, Sarah E. ; Feng, Ming ; Goni, Gustavo J. ; Gray, Alison R. ; Gutiérrez, Dimitri ; Hebert, Dave ; Hummels, Rebecca ; Ito, Shin-ichi ; Krug, Marjolaine ; Lacan, Francois ; Laurindo, Lucas ; Lazar, Alban ; Lee, Craig M. ; Lengaigne, Matthieu ; Levine, Naomi M. ; Middleton, John ; Montes, Ivonne ; Muglia, Michael ; Nagai, Takeyoshi ; Palevsky, Hilary I. ; Palter, Jaime B. ; Phillips, Helen E. ; Piola, Alberto R. ; Plueddemann, Albert J. ; Qiu, Bo ; Rodrigues, Regina ; Roughan, Moninya ; Rudnick, Daniel L. ; Rykaczewski, Ryan R. ; Saraceno, Martin ; Seim, Harvey E. ; Sen Gupta, Alexander ; Shannon, Lynne ; Sloyan, Bernadette M. ; Sutton, Adrienne J. ; Thompson, LuAnne ; van der Plas, Anja K. ; Volkov, Denis L. ; Wilkin, John L. ; Zhang, Dongxiao ; Zhang, LinlinOcean boundary current systems are key components of the climate system, are home to highly productive ecosystems, and have numerous societal impacts. Establishment of a global network of boundary current observing systems is a critical part of ongoing development of the Global Ocean Observing System. The characteristics of boundary current systems are reviewed, focusing on scientific and societal motivations for sustained observing. Techniques currently used to observe boundary current systems are reviewed, followed by a census of the current state of boundary current observing systems globally. The next steps in the development of boundary current observing systems are considered, leading to several specific recommendations.