(
2009-06)
Mann, Michael E.; Woodruff, Jonathan D.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.; Zhang, Zhihua
Atlantic Tropical Cyclone (TC) activity, as measured by annual storm counts,
reached anomalous levels over the past decade. The short nature of the historical
record and potential issues with its reliability in earlier decades, however, has
prompted an ongoing debate regarding the reality and significance of the recent
rise. Here, we place recent activity in a longer-term context, by comparing two
independent estimates of TC activity over the past 1500 years. The first estimate is
based on a composite of regional sedimentary evidence of landfalling hurricanes,
while the second estimate employs a previously published statistical model of
Atlantic TC activity driven by proxy-reconstructions of past climate changes. Both
approaches yield consistent evidence of a peak in Atlantic TC activity during
Medieval times (around AD 1000) followed by a subsequent lull in activity. The
Medieval peak, which rivals or even exceeds (within uncertainties) recent levels of
activity, results in the statistical model from a ‘perfect storm’ of La Niña-like
climate conditions and relative tropical Atlantic warmth.
