Bramante James F.

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Bramante
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James F.
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  • Preprint
    Increased typhoon activity in the Pacific deep tropics driven by Little Ice Age circulation changes
    (Nature Research, 2020-11-16) Bramante, James F. ; Ford, Murray R. ; Kench, Paul S. ; Ashton, Andrew D. ; Toomey, Michael R. ; Sullivan, Richard M. ; Karnauskas, Kristopher B. ; Ummenhofer, Caroline C. ; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.
    The instrumental record reveals that tropical cyclone activity is sensitive to oceanic and atmospheric variability on inter-annual and decadal scales. However, our understanding of the influence of climate on tropical cyclone behaviour is restricted by the short historical record and the sparseness of prehistorical reconstructions, particularly in the western North Pacific, where coastal communities suffer loss of life and livelihood from typhoons annually. Here, to explore past regional typhoon dynamics, we reconstruct three millennia of deep tropical North Pacific cyclogenesis. Combined with existing records, our reconstruction demonstrates that low-baseline typhoon activity prior to 1350 ce was followed by an interval of frequent storms during the Little Ice Age. This pattern, concurrent with hydroclimate proxy variability, suggests a centennial-scale link between Pacific hydroclimate and tropical cyclone climatology. An ensemble of global climate models demonstrates a migration of the Pacific Walker circulation and variability in two Pacific climate modes during the Little Ice Age, which probably contributed to enhanced tropical cyclone activity in the tropical western North Pacific. In the next century, projected changes to the Pacific Walker circulation and expansion of the tropics will invert these Little Ice Age hydroclimate trends, potentially reducing typhoon activity in the deep tropical Pacific.
  • Article
    Sea-level rise will drive divergent sediment transport patterns on fore reefs and reef flats, potentially causing erosion on Atoll Islands
    (American Geophysical Union, 2020-09-25) Bramante, James F. ; Ashton, Andrew D. ; Storlazzi, Curt D. ; Cheriton, Olivia M. ; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.
    Atoll reef islands primarily consist of unconsolidated sediment, and their ocean‐facing shorelines are maintained by sediment produced and transported across their reefs. Changes in incident waves can alter cross‐shore sediment exchange and, thus, affect the sediment budget and morphology of atoll reef islands. Here we investigate the influence of sea level rise and projected wave climate change on wave characteristics and cross‐shore sediment transport across an atoll reef at Kwajalein Island, Republic of the Marshall Islands. Using a phase‐resolving model, we quantify the influence on sediment transport of quantities not well captured by wave‐averaged models, namely, wave asymmetry and skewness and flow acceleration. Model results suggest that for current reef geometry, sea level, and wave climate, potential bedload transport is directed onshore, decreases from the fore reef to the beach, and is sensitive to the influence of flow acceleration. We find that a projected 12% decrease in annual wave energy by 2100 CE has negligible influence on reef flat hydrodynamics. However, 0.5–2.0 m of sea level rise increases wave heights, skewness, and shear stress on the reef flat and decreases wave skewness and shear stress on the fore reef. These hydrodynamic changes decrease potential sediment inputs onshore from the fore reef where coral production is greatest but increase potential cross‐reef sediment transport from the outer reef flat to the beach. Assuming sediment production on the fore reef remains constant or decreases due to increasing ocean temperatures and acidification, these processes have the potential to decrease net sediment delivery to atoll islands, causing erosion.
  • Thesis
    Wave-driven geomorphology of Pacific carbonate coastlines: from landscape to wavelength scale
    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, 2020-02) Bramante, James F.
    The shallow marine ecosystems of coral atolls and the human communities they support are among the most vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change. Sea-level rise threatens to inundate low-lying reef islands, tropical cyclone intensification threatens islands with flooding and erosion, and ocean warming and acidification threaten the health of coral reefs. Unfortunately, the sediment dynamics that shape the morphology of coral reefs and atoll reef islands are poorly understood, hindering predictions of coral atoll responses to climate change forcing. Here, I apply an eclectic set of methods, including numerical modeling, physical lab experiments, and sedimentological analysis, to produce insights into the ways tropical cyclones and waves move sediment on fringing reefs. First, I use a numerical model of hydrodynamics to predict the influence of sea-level rise and wave climate change on sediment transport across a coral atoll fringing reef. I demonstrate that by the end of the century, sea-level rise will reduce sediment transport rates from the fore reef to the beach, but increase transport rates from the reef flat to the beach. Wave climate change will have relatively negligible influence on cross-reef sediment transport. Additionally, I use the weathering of foraminifera tests to produce a sediment proxy of transport duration and direction across atoll reef flats, but demonstrate that the proxy does not clearly identify storm deposits. Second, I execute a series of experiments in an oscillating flow tunnel to constrain the rate at which sediment erodes reef surfaces under waves. I find that the erosion rate increases as a power law of wave orbital velocity, and that amount of sediment has a second-order influence. Finally, I establish grain size in a sediment core retrieved from a blue hole in the Marshall Islands as a proxy for tropical cyclone genesis and, using the results from an ensemble of climate models, demonstrate that enhanced tropical cyclogenesis during the Little Ice Age may have been driven by an anomalously negative Pacific Meridional Mode. This thesis demonstrates the importance of sediment dynamics on the morphology of fringing reefs and atoll reef islands and the sensitivity of those dynamics to centennial climate variability.
  • Dataset
    Sea-level rise will drive divergent sediment transport patterns on fore reefs and reef flats, potentially causing erosion on Atoll Islands
    ( 2019-11-12) Bramante, James F. ; Ashton, Andrew D. ; Storlazzi, Curt D. ; Cheriton, Olivia M. ; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.
    Atoll reef islands primarily consist of unconsolidated sediment, and their ocean-facing shorelines are maintained by sediment produced and transported across their reefs. Changes in incident waves can alter cross-shore sediment exchange and thus affect the sediment budget and morphology of atoll reef islands. Here we investigate the influence of sea-level rise and projected wave climate change on wave characteristics and cross-shore sediment transport across an atoll reef at Kwajalein Island, Republic of the Marshall Islands. Using a phase-resolving model, we quantify the influence on sediment transport of quantities not well-captured by wave-averaged models, namely wave asymmetry and skewness and flow acceleration. Model results suggest that for current reef geometry, sea level, and wave climate, potential bedload transport is directed onshore, decreases from the fore reef to the beach, and is sensitive to the influence of flow acceleration. We find that a projected 12% decrease in annual wave energy by 2100 CE has negligible influence on reef flat hydrodynamics. However, 0.5-2.0 m of sea-level rise increases wave heights, skewness, and shear stress on the reef flat, and decreases wave skewness and shear stress on the fore reef. These hydrodynamic changes decrease potential sediment inputs onshore from the fore reef where coral production is greatest, but increase potential cross-reef sediment transport from the outer reef flat to the beach. Assuming sediment production on the fore reef remains constant or decreases due to increasing ocean temperatures and acidification, these processes have the potential to decrease net sediment delivery to atoll islands, causing erosion.
  • Dataset
    Increased typhoon activity in the Pacific deep tropics driven by Little Ice Age circulation changes
    (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, 2020-09-02) Bramante, James F. ; Ford, Murray R. ; Kench, Paul S. ; Ashton, Andrew D. ; Toomey, Michael R. ; Sullivan, Richard M. ; Karnauskas, Kristopher B. ; Ummenhofer, Caroline C. ; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.
    The instrumental record reveals that tropical cyclone activity is sensitive to oceanic and atmospheric variability on inter-annual and decadal scales. However, our understanding of climate’s influence on tropical cyclone behavior is restricted by the short historical record and sparse prehistorical reconstructions, particularly in the western North Pacific where coastal communities suffer loss of life and livelihood from typhoons annually. Here we reconstruct three millennia of deep tropical North Pacific cyclogenesis and compare with other records to explore past regional typhoon dynamics. These records demonstrate low baseline activity prior to 1350 C.E. followed by a rapid culmination in activity during the Little Ice Age. This pattern is concurrent with hydroclimate proxy variability, suggesting a centennial-scale link between Pacific hydroclimate and tropical cyclone climatology. Using an ensemble of global climate models, we demonstrate that migration of the Pacific Walker circulation and variability in two Pacific climate modes during the Little Ice Age contributed to enhanced tropical cyclone activity in the tropical western North Pacific. Changes to Walker Circulation and expansion of the tropics projected for the next century invert Little Ice Age hydroclimate trends, potentially reducing typhoon activity in the deep tropical Pacific.