Thompson
Philip R.
Thompson
Philip R.
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ArticleMeridional asymmetry in recent decadal sea-level trends in the subtropical Pacific Ocean(American Geophysical Union, 2021-03-02) Schloesser, Fabian ; Thompson, Philip R. ; Piecuch, Christopher G.Recent sea surface height (SSH) trends in the South Pacific are substantially greater than trends in the North Pacific. Here, we use the Estimating the Climate and Circulation of the Ocean Version 4 Release 4 ocean state estimate and the Ocean Reanalysis System 5 to identify the forcing and mechanisms underlying that meridional asymmetry during 2005–2015. Thermosteric contributions dominate the spatial structure in Pacific SSH trends, but contributions from local surface heat fluxes are small. Wind stress trends drive a spin-up of the South Pacific subtropical gyre and a northward shift of the North Pacific subtropical gyre. A reduced gravity model forced with reanalysis winds qualitatively reproduces the meridional seesaw in sea level, suggesting that asymmetric trends in subtropical wind stress drive a cross-equatorial heat transport. A reversal in forcing associated with this process could impact near-term rates of coastal sea-level change, particularly in Pacific Island communities.
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Book chapterGlobal Oceans [in “State of the Climate in 2020”](American Meteorological Society, 2021-08-01) Johnson, Gregory C. ; Lumpkin, Rick ; Alin, Simone R. ; Amaya, Dillon J. ; Baringer, Molly O. ; Boyer, Tim ; Brandt, Peter ; Carter, Brendan ; Cetinić, Ivona ; Chambers, Don P. ; Cheng, Lijing ; Collins, Andrew U. ; Cosca, Cathy ; Domingues, Ricardo ; Dong, Shenfu ; Feely, Richard A. ; Frajka-Williams, Eleanor E. ; Franz, Bryan A. ; Gilson, John ; Goni, Gustavo J. ; Hamlington, Benjamin D. ; Herrford, Josefine ; Hu, Zeng-Zhen ; Huang, Boyin ; Ishii, Masayoshi ; Jevrejeva, Svetlana ; Kennedy, John J. ; Kersalé, Marion ; Killick, Rachel E. ; Landschützer, Peter ; Lankhorst, Matthias ; Leuliette, Eric ; Locarnini, Ricardo ; Lyman, John ; Marra, John F. ; Meinen, Christopher S. ; Merrifield, Mark ; Mitchum, Gary ; Moat, Bengamin I. ; Nerem, R. Steven ; Perez, Renellys ; Purkey, Sarah G. ; Reagan, James ; Sanchez-Franks, Alejandra ; Scannell, Hillary A. ; Schmid, Claudia ; Scott, Joel P. ; Siegel, David A. ; Smeed, David A. ; Stackhouse, Paul W. ; Sweet, William V. ; Thompson, Philip R. ; Trinanes, Joaquin ; Volkov, Denis L. ; Wanninkhof, Rik ; Weller, Robert A. ; Wen, Caihong ; Westberry, Toby K. ; Widlansky, Matthew J. ; Wilber, Anne C. ; Yu, Lisan ; Zhang, Huai-MinThis chapter details 2020 global patterns in select observed oceanic physical, chemical, and biological variables relative to long-term climatologies, their differences between 2020 and 2019, and puts 2020 observations in the context of the historical record. In this overview we address a few of the highlights, first in haiku, then paragraph form: La Niña arrives, shifts winds, rain, heat, salt, carbon: Pacific—beyond. Global ocean conditions in 2020 reflected a transition from an El Niño in 2018–19 to a La Niña in late 2020. Pacific trade winds strengthened in 2020 relative to 2019, driving anomalously westward Pacific equatorial surface currents. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs), upper ocean heat content, and sea surface height all fell in the eastern tropical Pacific and rose in the western tropical Pacific. Efflux of carbon dioxide from ocean to atmosphere was larger than average across much of the equatorial Pacific, and both chlorophyll-a and phytoplankton carbon concentrations were elevated across the tropical Pacific. Less rain fell and more water evaporated in the western equatorial Pacific, consonant with increased sea surface salinity (SSS) there. SSS may also have increased as a result of anomalously westward surface currents advecting salty water from the east. El Niño–Southern Oscillation conditions have global ramifications that reverberate throughout the report.
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ArticleOcean mass, sterodynamic effects, and vertical land motion largely explain US coast relative sea level rise(Nature Research, 2021-11-09) Harvey, Thomas C. ; Hamlington, Benjamin D. ; Frederikse, Thomas ; Nerem, R. Steven ; Piecuch, Christopher G. ; Hammond, William C. ; Blewitt, Geoffrey ; Thompson, Philip R. ; Bekaert, David P. S. ; Landerer, Felix ; Reager, John T. ; Kopp, Robert E. ; Chandanpurkar, Hrishikesh A. ; Fenty, Ian ; Trossman, David S. ; Walker, Jennifer S. ; Boening, CarmenRegional sea-level changes are caused by several physical processes that vary both in space and time. As a result of these processes, large regional departures from the long-term rate of global mean sea-level rise can occur. Identifying and understanding these processes at particular locations is the first step toward generating reliable projections and assisting in improved decision making. Here we quantify to what degree contemporary ocean mass change, sterodynamic effects, and vertical land motion influence sea-level rise observed by tide-gauge locations around the contiguous U.S. from 1993 to 2018. We are able to explain tide gauge-observed relative sea-level trends at 47 of 55 sampled locations. Locations where we cannot explain observed trends are potentially indicative of shortcomings in our coastal sea-level observational network or estimates of uncertainty.
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ArticleContributions of different sea-level processes to high-tide flooding along the US coastline(American Geophysical Union, 2022-07-14) Li, Sida ; Wahl, Thomas ; Barroso, Amanda ; Coats, Sloan ; Dangendorf, Sönke ; Piecuch, Christopher G. ; Sun, Qiang ; Thompson, Philip R. ; Liu, LintaoCoastal communities across the United States (U.S.) are experiencing an increase in the frequency of high-tide flooding (HTF). This increase is mainly due to sea-level rise (SLR), but other factors such as intra- to inter-annual mean sea level variability, tidal anomalies, and non-tidal residuals also contribute to HTF events. Here we introduce a novel decomposition approach to develop and then analyze a new database of different sea-level components. Those components represent processes that act on various timescales to contribute to HTF along the U.S. coastline. We find that the relative importance of components to HTF events strongly varies in space and time. Tidal anomalies contribute the most along the west and northeast coasts, where HTF events mostly occur in winter. Non-tidal residuals are most important along the Gulf of Mexico and mid-Atlantic coasts, where HTF events mostly occur in fall. We also quantify the minimum number of components that were required to cause HTF events in the past and how this number changed over time. The results highlight that at present, due to SLR, fewer components are needed to combine to push water levels above HTF thresholds, but tidal anomalies alone are still not sufficient to reach HTF thresholds in most locations. Finally, we explore how co-variability between different components leads to compounding effects. In some places, positive correlation between sea-level components leads to significantly more HTF events than would be expected if sea-level components were uncorrelated, whereas in other places negative correlation leads to fewer HTF events.
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ArticleSeasonal-to-interannual prediction of North American coastal marine ecosystems: forecast methods, mechanisms of predictability, and priority developments(Elsevier, 2020-02-20) Jacox, Michael ; Alexander, Michael A. ; Siedlecki, Samantha A. ; Chen, Ke ; Kwon, Young-Oh ; Brodie, Stephanie ; Ortiz, Ivonne ; Tommasi, Desiree ; Widlansky, Matthew J. ; Barrie, Daniel ; Capotondi, Antonietta ; Cheng, Wei ; Di Lorenzo, Emanuele ; Edwards, Christopher ; Fiechter, Jerome ; Fratantoni, Paula S. ; Hazen, Elliott L. ; Hermann, Albert J. ; Kumar, Arun ; Miller, Arthur J. ; Pirhalla, Douglas ; Pozo Buil, Mercedes ; Ray, Sulagna ; Sheridan, Scott ; Subramanian, Aneesh C. ; Thompson, Philip ; Thorne, Lesley ; Annamalai, Hariharasubramanian ; Aydin, Kerim ; Bograd, Steven ; Griffis, Roger B. ; Kearney, Kelly ; Kim, Hyemi ; Mariotti, Annarita ; Merrifield, Mark ; Rykaczewski, Ryan R.Marine ecosystem forecasting is an area of active research and rapid development. Promise has been shown for skillful prediction of physical, biogeochemical, and ecological variables on a range of timescales, suggesting potential for forecasts to aid in the management of living marine resources and coastal communities. However, the mechanisms underlying forecast skill in marine ecosystems are often poorly understood, and many forecasts, especially for biological variables, rely on empirical statistical relationships developed from historical observations. Here, we review statistical and dynamical marine ecosystem forecasting methods and highlight examples of their application along U.S. coastlines for seasonal-to-interannual (1–24 month) prediction of properties ranging from coastal sea level to marine top predator distributions. We then describe known mechanisms governing marine ecosystem predictability and how they have been used in forecasts to date. These mechanisms include physical atmospheric and oceanic processes, biogeochemical and ecological responses to physical forcing, and intrinsic characteristics of species themselves. In reviewing the state of the knowledge on forecasting techniques and mechanisms underlying marine ecosystem predictability, we aim to facilitate forecast development and uptake by (i) identifying methods and processes that can be exploited for development of skillful regional forecasts, (ii) informing priorities for forecast development and verification, and (iii) improving understanding of conditional forecast skill (i.e., a priori knowledge of whether a forecast is likely to be skillful). While we focus primarily on coastal marine ecosystems surrounding North America (and the U.S. in particular), we detail forecast methods, physical and biological mechanisms, and priority developments that are globally relevant.
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ArticleHigh-tide floods and storm surges during atmospheric rivers on the US West Coast(American Geophysical Union, 2022-01-18) Piecuch, Christopher G. ; Coats, Sloan ; Dangendorf, Sönke ; Landerer, Felix ; Reager, John T. ; Thompson, Philip R. ; Wahl, ThomasAtmospheric rivers (ARs) cause inland hydrological impacts related to precipitation. However, little is known about coastal hazards associated with these events. We elucidate high-tide floods (HTFs) and storm surges during ARs on the US West Coast during 1980–2016. HTFs and ARs cooccur more often than expected from chance. Between 10% and 63% of HTFs coincide with ARs on average, depending on location. However, interannual-to-decadal variations in HTFs are due more to tides and mean sea-level changes than storminess variability. Only 2–15% of ARs coincide with HTFs, suggesting that ARs typically must cooccur with high tides or mean sea levels to cause HTFs. Storm surges during ARs reflect local wind, pressure, and precipitation forcing: meridional wind and barometric pressure are primary drivers, but precipitation makes secondary contributions. This study highlights the relevance of ARs to coastal impacts, clarifies the drivers of storm surge during ARs, and identifies future research directions.
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ArticleWhat caused recent shifts in tropical pacific decadal sea-level trends?(American Geophysical Union, 2019-10-31) Piecuch, Christopher G. ; Thompson, Philip R. ; Ponte, Rui M. ; Merrifield, Mark ; Hamlington, Benjamin D.Satellite altimetry reveals substantial decadal variability in sea level 𝜁 across the tropical Pacific during 1993–2015. An ocean state estimate that faithfully reproduces the observations is used to elucidate the origin of these low-frequency tropical Pacific 𝜁 variations. Analysis of the hydrostatic equation reveals that recent decadal 𝜁 changes in the tropical Pacific are mainly hermosteric in nature, related to changes in upper-ocean heat content. A forcing experiment performed with the numerical model suggests that anomalous wind stress was an important driver of the relevant heat storage and thermosteric variation. Closed budget diagnostics further clarify that the wind-stress-related thermosteric 𝜁 variation resulted from the joint actions of large-scale ocean advection and local surface heat flux, such that advection controlled the budget over shorter, intraseasonal to interannual time scales, and local surface heat flux became increasingly influential at longer decadal periods. In particular, local surface heat flux was important in contributing to a recent reversal of decadal 𝜁 trends in the tropical Pacific. Contributions from local surface heat flux partly reflect damping latent heat flux tied to wind-stress-driven sea-surface-temperature variations.
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ArticleTowards comprehensive observing and modeling systems for monitoring and predicting regional to coastal sea level(Frontiers Media, 2019-07-25) Ponte, Rui M. ; Carson, Mark ; Cirano, Mauro ; Domingues, Catia M. ; Jevrejeva, Svetlana ; Marcos, Marta ; Mitchum, Gary ; van de Wal, Roderik S.W. ; Woodworth, Philip L. ; Ablain, Michaël ; Ardhuin, Fabrice ; Ballu, Valerie ; Becker, Mélanie ; Benveniste, Jérôme ; Birol, Florence ; Bradshaw, Elizabeth ; Cazenave, Anny ; De Mey-Frémaux, Pierre ; Durand, Fabien ; Ezer, Tal ; Fu, Lee-Lueng ; Fukumori, Ichiro ; Gordon, Kathy ; Gravelle, Médéric ; Griffies, Stephen M. ; Han, Weiqing ; Hibbert, Angela ; Hughes, Chris W. ; Idier, Deborah ; Kourafalou, Vassiliki H. ; Little, Christopher M. ; Matthews, Andrew ; Melet, Angelique ; Merrifield, Mark ; Meyssignac, Benoit ; Minobe, Shoshiro ; Penduff, Thierry ; Picot, Nicolas ; Piecuch, Christopher G. ; Ray, Richard D. ; Rickards, Lesley ; Santamaría-Gómez, Alvaro ; Stammer, Detlef ; Staneva, Joanna ; Testut, Laurent ; Thompson, Keith ; Thompson, Philip ; Vignudelli, Stefano ; Williams, Joanne ; Williams, Simon D. P. ; Wöppelmann, Guy ; Zanna, Laure ; Zhang, XuebinA major challenge for managing impacts and implementing effective mitigation measures and adaptation strategies for coastal zones affected by future sea level (SL) rise is our limited capacity to predict SL change at the coast on relevant spatial and temporal scales. Predicting coastal SL requires the ability to monitor and simulate a multitude of physical processes affecting SL, from local effects of wind waves and river runoff to remote influences of the large-scale ocean circulation on the coast. Here we assess our current understanding of the causes of coastal SL variability on monthly to multi-decadal timescales, including geodetic, oceanographic and atmospheric aspects of the problem, and review available observing systems informing on coastal SL. We also review the ability of existing models and data assimilation systems to estimate coastal SL variations and of atmosphere-ocean global coupled models and related regional downscaling efforts to project future SL changes. We discuss (1) observational gaps and uncertainties, and priorities for the development of an optimal and integrated coastal SL observing system, (2) strategies for advancing model capabilities in forecasting short-term processes and projecting long-term changes affecting coastal SL, and (3) possible future developments of sea level services enabling better connection of scientists and user communities and facilitating assessment and decision making for adaptation to future coastal SL change.
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ArticleThe dominant global modes of recent internal sea level variability(American Geophysical Union, 2019-03-21) Hamlington, Benjamin D. ; Cheon, Se-Hyeon ; Piecuch, Christopher G. ; Karnauskas, Kristopher B. ; Thompson, Philip R. ; Kim, Kwang-Yul ; Reager, John T. ; Landerer, Felix ; Frederikse, ThomasThe advances in the modern sea level observing system have allowed for a new level of knowledge of regional and global sea level in recent years. The combination of data from satellite altimeters, Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites, and Argo profiling floats has provided a clearer picture of the different contributors to sea level change, leading to an improved understanding of how sea level has changed in the present and, by extension, may change in the future. As the overlap between these records has recently extended past a decade in length, it is worth examining the extent to which internal variability on timescales from intraseasonal to decadal can be separated from long‐term trends that may be expected to continue into the future. To do so, a combined modal decomposition based on cyclostationary empirical orthogonal functions is performed simultaneously on the three data sets, and the dominant shared modes of variability are analyzed. Modes associated with the trend, seasonal signal, El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and Pacific decadal oscillation are extracted and discussed, and the relationship between regional patterns of sea level change and their associated global signature is highlighted.
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ArticleObserved spatiotemporal variability in the annual sea level cycle along the Global Coast(American Geophysical Union, 2024-04-02) Barroso, Amanda ; Wahl, Thomas ; Li, Sida ; Enriquez, Alejandra R. ; Morim, Joao ; Dangendorf, Sonke ; Piecuch, Christopher G. ; Thompson, Philip R.Changes in the seasonal sea level cycle can modulate the flooding risk along coastlines. Here, we use harmonic analysis to quantify changes in the amplitude and phase of the annual component of the sea level cycle at 798 tide gauge locations along the global coastline where long records are available. We identify coastal hotspots by applying clustering methods revealing coherent regions with similar patterns of variability in the annual sea level cycle. Results show that for most tide gauges the annual amplitude reached its maximum after 1970 and its peak typically occurs during the fall season of the respective hemisphere. Many tide gauges exhibit non-stationarity in the annual cycle in terms of amplitude and/or phase. For example, at 226 tide gauges we find significant trends in the amplitude (either increasing or decreasing) for the time period after 1970; while several sites (50 in total), mostly in the Mediterranean and around Pacific islands, experienced phase changes leading to shifts in the timing of the peak of the annual cycle by more than a month over their entire record. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for potential non-stationarity in seasonal mean sea level cycles along coastlines.