Keppel-Aleks
Gretchen
Keppel-Aleks
Gretchen
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ArticleA geostatistical framework for quantifying the imprint of mesoscale atmospheric transport on satellite trace gas retrievals(American Geophysical Union, 2019-07-29) Torres, Anthony D. ; Keppel-Aleks, Gretchen ; Doney, Scott C. ; Fendrock, Michaela ; Luis, Kelly M. A. ; De Mazière, Martine ; Hase, Frank ; Petri, Christof ; Pollard, David ; Roehl, Coleen M. ; Sussmann, Ralf ; Velazco, Voltaire A. ; Warneke, Thorsten ; Wunch, DebraNational Aeronautics and Space Administration's Orbiting Carbon Observatory‐2 (OCO‐2) satellite provides observations of total column‐averaged CO2 mole fractions (XCO2 ) at high spatial resolution that may enable novel constraints on surface‐atmosphere carbon fluxes. Atmospheric inverse modeling provides an approach to optimize surface fluxes at regional scales, but the accuracy of the fluxes from inversion frameworks depends on key inputs, including spatially and temporally dense CO2 observations and reliable representations of atmospheric transport. Since XCO2 observations are sensitive to both synoptic and mesoscale variations within the free troposphere, horizontal atmospheric transport imparts substantial variations in these data and must be either resolved explicitly by the atmospheric transport model or accounted for within the error covariance budget provided to inverse frameworks. Here, we used geostatistical techniques to quantify the imprint of atmospheric transport in along‐track OCO‐2 soundings. We compare high‐pass‐filtered (<250 km, spatial scales that primarily isolate mesoscale or finer‐scale variations) along‐track spatial variability in XCO2 and XH2O from OCO‐2 tracks to temporal synoptic and mesoscale variability from ground‐based XCO2 and XH2O observed by nearby Total Carbon Column Observing Network sites. Mesoscale atmospheric transport is found to be the primary driver of along‐track, high‐frequency variability for OCO‐2 XH2O. For XCO2 , both mesoscale transport variability and spatially coherent bias associated with other elements of the OCO‐2 retrieval state vector are important drivers of the along‐track variance budget.
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ArticleSeparating the influence of temperature, drought, and fire on interannual variability in atmospheric CO2(John Wiley & Sons, 2014-11-19) Keppel-Aleks, Gretchen ; Wolf, Aaron S. ; Mu, Mingquan ; Doney, Scott C. ; Morton, Douglas C. ; Kasibhatla, Prasad S. ; Miller, John B. ; Dlugokencky, Edward J. ; Randerson, James T.The response of the carbon cycle in prognostic Earth system models (ESMs) contributes significant uncertainty to projections of global climate change. Quantifying contributions of known drivers of interannual variability in the growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) is important for improving the representation of terrestrial ecosystem processes in these ESMs. Several recent studies have identified the temperature dependence of tropical net ecosystem exchange (NEE) as a primary driver of this variability by analyzing a single, globally averaged time series of CO2 anomalies. Here we examined how the temporal evolution of CO2 in different latitude bands may be used to separate contributions from temperature stress, drought stress, and fire emissions to CO2 variability. We developed atmospheric CO2 patterns from each of these mechanisms during 1997–2011 using an atmospheric transport model. NEE responses to temperature, NEE responses to drought, and fire emissions all contributed significantly to CO2 variability in each latitude band, suggesting that no single mechanism was the dominant driver. We found that the sum of drought and fire contributions to CO2 variability exceeded direct NEE responses to temperature in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Additional sensitivity tests revealed that these contributions are masked by temporal and spatial smoothing of CO2 observations. Accounting for fires, the sensitivity of tropical NEE to temperature stress decreased by 25% to 2.9 ± 0.4 Pg C yr−1 K−1. These results underscore the need for accurate attribution of the drivers of CO2 variability prior to using contemporary observations to constrain long-term ESM responses.
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ArticleAtmospheric carbon dioxide variability in the Community Earth System Model : evaluation and transient dynamics during the twentieth and twenty-first centuries(American Meteorological Society, 2013-07-01) Keppel-Aleks, Gretchen ; Randerson, James T. ; Lindsay, Keith ; Stephens, Britton B. ; Moore, J. Keith ; Doney, Scott C. ; Thornton, Peter E. ; Mahowald, Natalie M. ; Hoffman, Forrest M. ; Sweeney, Colm ; Tans, Pieter P. ; Wennberg, Paul O. ; Wofsy, Steven C.Changes in atmospheric CO2 variability during the twenty-first century may provide insight about ecosystem responses to climate change and have implications for the design of carbon monitoring programs. This paper describes changes in the three-dimensional structure of atmospheric CO2 for several representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) using the Community Earth System Model–Biogeochemistry (CESM1-BGC). CO2 simulated for the historical period was first compared to surface, aircraft, and column observations. In a second step, the evolution of spatial and temporal gradients during the twenty-first century was examined. The mean annual cycle in atmospheric CO2 was underestimated for the historical period throughout the Northern Hemisphere, suggesting that the growing season net flux in the Community Land Model (the land component of CESM) was too weak. Consistent with weak summer drawdown in Northern Hemisphere high latitudes, simulated CO2 showed correspondingly weak north–south and vertical gradients during the summer. In the simulations of the twenty-first century, CESM predicted increases in the mean annual cycle of atmospheric CO2 and larger horizontal gradients. Not only did the mean north–south gradient increase due to fossil fuel emissions, but east–west contrasts in CO2 also strengthened because of changing patterns in fossil fuel emissions and terrestrial carbon exchange. In the RCP8.5 simulation, where CO2 increased to 1150 ppm by 2100, the CESM predicted increases in interannual variability in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes of up to 60% relative to present variability for time series filtered with a 2–10-yr bandpass. Such an increase in variability may impact detection of changing surface fluxes from atmospheric observations.