Friedrichs Marjorie A. M.

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Friedrichs

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Marjorie A. M.

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Estimating hypoxic volume in the Chesapeake Bay using two continuously sampled oxygen profiles

(John Wiley & Sons, 2018-09-12) Bever, Aaron J. ; Friedrichs, Marjorie A. M. ; Friedrichs, Carl T. ; Scully, Malcolm E.

Low levels of dissolved oxygen (DO) occur in many embayments throughout the world and have numerous detrimental effects on biota. Although measurement of in situ DO is straightforward with modern instrumentation, quantifying the volume of water in a given embayment that is hypoxic (hypoxic volume (HV)) is a more difficult task; however, this information is critical for determining whether management efforts to increase DO are having an overall impact. This paper uses output from a three‐dimensional numerical model to demonstrate that HV in Chesapeake Bay can be estimated well with as few as two vertical profiles. In addition, the cumulative hypoxic volume (HVC; the total amount of hypoxia in a given year) can be calculated with relatively low uncertainty (<10%) if continuous DO data are available from two strategically positioned vertical profiles. This is because HV in the Chesapeake Bay is strongly constrained by the geometry of the embayment. A simple Geometric HV calculation method is presented and numerical model results are used to illustrate that for calculating HVC, the results using two daily‐averaged profiles are typically more accurate than those of the standard method that interpolates bimonthly cruise data. Bimonthly data produce less accurate estimates of HVC because high‐frequency changes in oxygen concentration, for example, due to regional‐weather‐ or storm‐induced changes in wind direction and magnitude, are not resolved. The advantages of supplementing cruise‐based sampling with continuous vertical profiles to estimate HVC should be applicable to other systems where hypoxic water is constrained to a specific area by bathymetry.
Assessment of skill and portability in regional marine biogeochemical models : role of multiple planktonic groups

(American Geophysical Union, 2007-08-02) Friedrichs, Marjorie A. M. ; Dusenberry, Jeffrey A. ; Anderson, Laurence A. ; Armstrong, Robert A. ; Chai, Fei ; Christian, James R. ; Doney, Scott C. ; Dunne, John P. ; Fujii, Masahiko ; Hood, Raleigh R. ; McGillicuddy, Dennis J. ; Moore, J. Keith ; Schartau, Markus ; Spitz, Yvette H. ; Wiggert, Jerry D.

Application of biogeochemical models to the study of marine ecosystems is pervasive, yet objective quantification of these models' performance is rare. Here, 12 lower trophic level models of varying complexity are objectively assessed in two distinct regions (equatorial Pacific and Arabian Sea). Each model was run within an identical one-dimensional physical framework. A consistent variational adjoint implementation assimilating chlorophyll-a, nitrate, export, and primary productivity was applied and the same metrics were used to assess model skill. Experiments were performed in which data were assimilated from each site individually and from both sites simultaneously. A cross-validation experiment was also conducted whereby data were assimilated from one site and the resulting optimal parameters were used to generate a simulation for the second site. When a single pelagic regime is considered, the simplest models fit the data as well as those with multiple phytoplankton functional groups. However, those with multiple phytoplankton functional groups produced lower misfits when the models are required to simulate both regimes using identical parameter values. The cross-validation experiments revealed that as long as only a few key biogeochemical parameters were optimized, the models with greater phytoplankton complexity were generally more portable. Furthermore, models with multiple zooplankton compartments did not necessarily outperform models with single zooplankton compartments, even when zooplankton biomass data are assimilated. Finally, even when different models produced similar least squares model-data misfits, they often did so via very different element flow pathways, highlighting the need for more comprehensive data sets that uniquely constrain these pathways.
Interannual variability of primary production and dissolved organic nitrogen storage in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre

(American Geophysical Union, 2012-08-10) Luo, Ya-Wei ; Ducklow, Hugh W. ; Friedrichs, Marjorie A. M. ; Church, Matthew J. ; Karl, David M. ; Doney, Scott C.

The upper ocean primary production measurements from the Hawaii Ocean Time series (HOT) at Station ALOHA in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre showed substantial variability over the last two decades. The annual average primary production varied within a limited range over 1991–1998, significantly increased in 1999–2000 and then gradually decreased afterwards. This variability was investigated using a one-dimensional ecosystem model. The long-term HOT observations were used to constrain the model by prescribing physical forcings and lower boundary conditions and optimizing the model parameters against data using data assimilation. The model reproduced the general interannual pattern in the observed primary production, and mesoscale variability in vertical velocity was identified as a major contributing factor to the interannual variability in the simulation. Several strong upwelling events occurred in 1999, which brought up nitrate at rates several times higher than other years and elevated the model primary production. Our model results suggested a hypothesis for the observed interannual variability pattern of primary production at Station ALOHA: Part of the upwelled nitrate input in 1999 was converted to and accumulated as semilabile dissolved organic nitrogen (DON), and subsequent recycling of this semilabile DON supported enhanced primary productivity for the next several years as the semilabile DON perturbation was gradually removed via export.
Impact of seabed resuspension on oxygen and nitrogen dynamics in the northern Gulf of Mexico : a numerical modeling study

(John Wiley & Sons, 2018-10-15) Moriarty, Julia M. ; Harris, Courtney K. ; Friedrichs, Marjorie A. M. ; Fennel, Katja ; Xu, Kehui

Resuspension affects water quality in coastal environments by entraining seabed organic matter into the water column, which can increase remineralization, alter seabed fluxes, decrease water clarity, and affect oxygen and nutrient dynamics. Nearly all numerical models of water column biogeochemistry, however, simplify seabed and bottom boundary layer processes and neglect resuspension. Here we implemented HydroBioSed, a coupled hydrodynamic‐sediment transport‐biogeochemical model to examine the role of resuspension in regulating oxygen and nitrogen dynamics on timescales of a day to a month. The model was implemented for the northern Gulf of Mexico, where the extent of summertime hypoxia is sensitive to seabed and bottom boundary layer processes. Results indicated that particulate organic matter remineralization in the bottom water column increased by an order of magnitude during resuspension events. This increased sediment oxygen consumption and ammonium production, which were defined as the sum of seabed fluxes of oxygen and ammonium, plus oxygen consumption and ammonium production in the water column due to resuspended organic matter. The increases in remineralization impacted biogeochemical dynamics to a greater extent than resuspension‐induced seabed fluxes and oxidation of reduced chemical species. The effect of resuspension on bottom water biogeochemistry increased with particulate organic matter availability, which was modulated by sediment transport patterns. Overall, when averaged over the shelf and on timescales of a month in the numerical model, cycles of erosion and deposition accounted for about two thirds of sediment oxygen consumption and almost all of the sediment ammonium production.
Skill assessment for coupled biological/physical models of marine systems

( 2008-03-04) Stow, Craig A. ; Jolliff, Jason ; McGillicuddy, Dennis J. ; Doney, Scott C. ; Allen, J. Icarus ; Friedrichs, Marjorie A. M. ; Rose, Kenneth A. ; Wallhead, Philip

Coupled biological/physical models of marine systems serve many purposes including the synthesis of information, hypothesis generation, and as a tool for numerical experimentation. However, marine system models are increasingly used for prediction to support high-stakes decision-making. In such applications it is imperative that a rigorous model skill assessment is conducted so that the model’s capabilities are tested and understood. Herein, we review several metrics and approaches useful to evaluate model skill. The definition of skill and the determination of the skill level necessary for a given application is context specific and no single metric is likely to reveal all aspects of model skill. Thus, we recommend the use of several metrics, in concert, to provide a more thorough appraisal. The routine application and presentation of rigorous skill assessment metrics will also serve the broader interests of the modeling community, ultimately resulting in improved forecasting abilities as well as helping us recognize our limitations.
Oceanic heterotrophic bacterial nutrition by semilabile DOM as revealed by data assimilative modeling

(Inter-Research, 2010-08-03) Luo, Ya-Wei ; Friedrichs, Marjorie A. M. ; Doney, Scott C. ; Church, Matthew J. ; Ducklow, Hugh W.

Previous studies have focused on the role of labile dissolved organic matter (DOM) (defined as turnover time of ~1 d) in supporting heterotrophic bacterial production, but have mostly neglected semilabile DOM (defined as turnover time of ~100 to 1000 d) as a potential substrate for heterotrophic bacterial growth. To test the hypothesis that semilabile DOM supports substantial amounts of heterotrophic bacterial production in the open ocean, we constructed a 1-dimensional epipelagic ecosystem model and applied it to 3 open ocean sites: the Arabian Sea, Equatorial Pacific and Station ALOHA in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre. The model tracks carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus with flexible stoichiometry. This study used a large number of observations, including measurements of heterotrophic bacterial production rates and standing stocks, and DOM concentration data, to rigorously test and constrain model output. Data assimilation was successfully applied to optimize the model parameters and resulted in simultaneous representation of observed nitrate, phosphate, phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass, primary production, heterotrophic bacterial biomass and production, DOM, and suspended and sinking particulate organic matter. Across the 3 ocean ecosystems examined, the data assimilation suggests semilabile DOM may support 17 to 40% of heterotrophic bacterial carbon demand. In an experiment where bacteria only utilize labile DOM, and with more of the DOM production assigned to labile DOM, the model poorly represented the observations. These results suggest that semilabile DOM may play an important role in sustaining heterotrophic bacterial growth in diverse regions of the open ocean.
Challenges of modeling depth-integrated marine primary productivity over multiple decades : a case study at BATS and HOT

(American Geophysical Union, 2010-09-15) Saba, Vincent S. ; Friedrichs, Marjorie A. M. ; Carr, Mary-Elena ; Antoine, David ; Armstrong, Robert A. ; Asanuma, Ichio ; Aumont, Olivier ; Bates, Nicholas R. ; Behrenfeld, Michael J. ; Bennington, Val ; Bopp, Laurent ; Bruggeman, Jorn ; Buitenhuis, Erik T. ; Church, Matthew J. ; Ciotti, Aurea M. ; Doney, Scott C. ; Dowell, Mark ; Dunne, John P. ; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie ; Gregg, Watson ; Hoepffner, Nicolas ; Hyde, Kimberly J. W. ; Ishizaka, Joji ; Kameda, Takahiko ; Karl, David M. ; Lima, Ivan D. ; Lomas, Michael W. ; Marra, John F. ; McKinley, Galen A. ; Melin, Frederic ; Moore, J. Keith ; Morel, Andre ; O'Reilly, John ; Salihoglu, Baris ; Scardi, Michele ; Smyth, Tim J. ; Tang, Shilin ; Tjiputra, Jerry ; Uitz, Julia ; Vichi, Marcello ; Waters, Kirk ; Westberry, Toby K. ; Yool, Andrew

The performance of 36 models (22 ocean color models and 14 biogeochemical ocean circulation models (BOGCMs)) that estimate depth-integrated marine net primary productivity (NPP) was assessed by comparing their output to in situ 14C data at the Bermuda Atlantic Time series Study (BATS) and the Hawaii Ocean Time series (HOT) over nearly two decades. Specifically, skill was assessed based on the models' ability to estimate the observed mean, variability, and trends of NPP. At both sites, more than 90% of the models underestimated mean NPP, with the average bias of the BOGCMs being nearly twice that of the ocean color models. However, the difference in overall skill between the best BOGCM and the best ocean color model at each site was not significant. Between 1989 and 2007, in situ NPP at BATS and HOT increased by an average of nearly 2% per year and was positively correlated to the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation index. The majority of ocean color models produced in situ NPP trends that were closer to the observed trends when chlorophyll-a was derived from high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC), rather than fluorometric or SeaWiFS data. However, this was a function of time such that average trend magnitude was more accurately estimated over longer time periods. Among BOGCMs, only two individual models successfully produced an increasing NPP trend (one model at each site). We caution against the use of models to assess multiannual changes in NPP over short time periods. Ocean color model estimates of NPP trends could improve if more high quality HPLC chlorophyll-a time series were available.
Challenges associated with modeling low-oxygen waters in Chesapeake Bay : a multiple model comparison

(Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union, 2016-04-06) Irby, Isaac D. ; Friedrichs, Marjorie A. M. ; Friedrichs, Carl T. ; Bever, Aaron J. ; Hood, Raleigh R. ; Lanerolle, Lyon W. J. ; Li, Ming ; Linker, Lewis ; Scully, Malcolm E. ; Sellner, Kevin G. ; Shen, Jian ; Testa, Jeremy M. ; Wang, Hao ; Wang, Ping ; Xia, Meng

As three-dimensional (3-D) aquatic ecosystem models are used more frequently for operational water quality forecasts and ecological management decisions, it is important to understand the relative strengths and limitations of existing 3-D models of varying spatial resolution and biogeochemical complexity. To this end, 2-year simulations of the Chesapeake Bay from eight hydrodynamic-oxygen models have been statistically compared to each other and to historical monitoring data. Results show that although models have difficulty resolving the variables typically thought to be the main drivers of dissolved oxygen variability (stratification, nutrients, and chlorophyll), all eight models have significant skill in reproducing the mean and seasonal variability of dissolved oxygen. In addition, models with constant net respiration rates independent of nutrient supply and temperature reproduced observed dissolved oxygen concentrations about as well as much more complex, nutrient-dependent biogeochemical models. This finding has significant ramifications for short-term hypoxia forecasts in the Chesapeake Bay, which may be possible with very simple oxygen parameterizations, in contrast to the more complex full biogeochemical models required for scenario-based forecasting. However, models have difficulty simulating correct density and oxygen mixed layer depths, which are important ecologically in terms of habitat compression. Observations indicate a much stronger correlation between the depths of the top of the pycnocline and oxycline than between their maximum vertical gradients, highlighting the importance of the mixing depth in defining the region of aerobic habitat in the Chesapeake Bay when low-oxygen bottom waters are present. Improvement in hypoxia simulations will thus depend more on the ability of models to reproduce the correct mean and variability of the depth of the physically driven surface mixed layer than the precise magnitude of the vertical density gradient.
Surface ocean pCO2 seasonality and sea-air CO2 flux estimates for the North American east coast

(John Wiley & Sons, 2013-10-16) Signorini, Sergio R. ; Mannino, Antonio ; Najjar, Raymond G. ; Friedrichs, Marjorie A. M. ; Cai, Wei-Jun ; Salisbury, Joseph E. ; Wang, Zhaohui Aleck ; Thomas, Helmuth ; Shadwick, Elizabeth H.

Underway and in situ observations of surface ocean pCO2, combined with satellite data, were used to develop pCO2 regional algorithms to analyze the seasonal and interannual variability of surface ocean pCO2 and sea-air CO2 flux for five physically and biologically distinct regions of the eastern North American continental shelf: the South Atlantic Bight (SAB), the Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB), the Gulf of Maine (GoM), Nantucket Shoals and Georges Bank (NS+GB), and the Scotian Shelf (SS). Temperature and dissolved inorganic carbon variability are the most influential factors driving the seasonality of pCO2. Estimates of the sea-air CO2 flux were derived from the available pCO2 data, as well as from the pCO2 reconstructed by the algorithm. Two different gas exchange parameterizations were used. The SS, GB+NS, MAB, and SAB regions are net sinks of atmospheric CO2 while the GoM is a weak source. The estimates vary depending on the use of surface ocean pCO2 from the data or algorithm, as well as with the use of the two different gas exchange parameterizations. Most of the regional estimates are in general agreement with previous studies when the range of uncertainty and interannual variability are taken into account. According to the algorithm, the average annual uptake of atmospheric CO2 by eastern North American continental shelf waters is found to be between −3.4 and −5.4 Tg C yr−1 (areal average of −0.7 to −1.0 mol CO2 m−2 yr−1) over the period 2003–2010.
A science plan for carbon cycle research in North American coastal waters. Report of the Coastal CARbon Synthesis (CCARS) community workshop, August 19-21, 2014

(Ocean Carbon & Biogeochemistry Program, 2016) Benway, Heather M. ; Alin, Simone R. ; Boyer, Elizabeth ; Cai, Wei-Jun ; Coble, Paula G. ; Cross, Jessica N. ; Friedrichs, Marjorie A. M. ; Goni, Miguel ; Griffith, Peter C. ; Herrmann, Maria ; Lohrenz, Steven E. ; Mathis, Jeremy T. ; McKinley, Galen A. ; Najjar, Raymond G. ; Pilskaln, Cynthia H. ; Siedlecki, Samantha A. ; Smith, Richard A.

Relative to their surface area, continental margins represent some of the largest carbon fluxes in the global ocean, but sparse and sporadic sampling in space and time makes these systems difficult to characterize and quantify. Recognizing the importance of continental margins to the overall North American carbon budget, terrestrial and marine carbon cycle scientists have been collaborating on a series of synthesis, carbon budgeting, and modeling exercises for coastal regions of North America, which include the Gulf of Mexico, the Laurentian Great Lakes (LGL), and the coastal waters of the Atlantic, Pacific, and Arctic Oceans. The Coastal CARbon Synthesis (CCARS) workshops and research activities have been conducted over the past several years as a partner activity between the Ocean Carbon and Biogeochemistry (OCB) Program and the North American Carbon Program (NACP) to synthesize existing data and improve quantitative assessments of the North American carbon budget.
Introduction to special section on The U.S. IOOS Coastal and Ocean Modeling Testbed

(John Wiley & Sons, 2013-12-11) Luettich, Richard A. ; Wright, L. Donelson ; Signell, Richard P. ; Friedrichs, Carl T. ; Friedrichs, Marjorie A. M. ; Harding, John ; Fennel, Katja ; Howlett, Eoin ; Graves, Sara J. ; Smith, Elizabeth ; Crane, Gary ; Baltes, Rebecca

Strong and strategic collaborations among experts from academia, federal operational centers, and industry have been forged to create a U.S. IOOS Coastal and Ocean Modeling Testbed (COMT). The COMT mission is to accelerate the transition of scientific and technical advances from the coastal and ocean modeling research community to improved operational ocean products and services. This is achieved via the evaluation of existing technology or the development of new technology depending on the status of technology within the research community. The initial phase of the COMT has addressed three coastal and ocean prediction challenges of great societal importance: estuarine hypoxia, shelf hypoxia, and coastal inundation. A fourth effort concentrated on providing and refining the cyberinfrastructure and cyber tools to support the modeling work and to advance interoperability and community access to the COMT archive. This paper presents an overview of the initiation of the COMT, the findings of each team and a discussion of the role of the COMT in research to operations and its interface with the coastal and ocean modeling community in general. Detailed technical results are presented in the accompanying series of 16 technical papers in this special issue.
Assessing the uncertainties of model estimates of primary productivity in the tropical Pacific Ocean

( 2008-03) Friedrichs, Marjorie A. M. ; Carr, Mary-Elena ; Barber, Richard T. ; Scardi, Michele ; Antoine, David ; Armstrong, Robert A. ; Asanuma, Ichio ; Behrenfeld, Michael J. ; Buitenhuis, Erik T. ; Chai, Fei ; Christian, James R. ; Ciotti, Aurea M. ; Doney, Scott C. ; Dowell, Mark ; Dunne, John P. ; Gentili, Bernard ; Gregg, Watson ; Hoepffner, Nicolas ; Ishizaka, Joji ; Kameda, Takahiko ; Lima, Ivan D. ; Marra, John F. ; Melin, Frederic ; Moore, J. Keith ; Morel, Andre ; O'Malley, Robert T. ; O'Reilly, Jay ; Saba, Vincent S. ; Schmeltz, Marjorie ; Smyth, Tim J. ; Tjiputra, Jerry ; Waters, Kirk ; Westberry, Toby K. ; Winguth, Arne

Depth-integrated primary productivity (PP) estimates obtained from satellite ocean color based models (SatPPMs) and those generated from biogeochemical ocean general circulation models (BOGCMs) represent a key resource for biogeochemical and ecological studies at global as well as regional scales. Calibration and validation of these PP models are not straightforward, however, and comparative studies show large differences between model estimates. The goal of this paper is to compare PP estimates obtained from 30 different models (21 SatPPMs and 9 BOGCMs) to a tropical Pacific PP database consisting of ~1000 14C measurements spanning more than a decade (1983- 1996). Primary findings include: skill varied significantly between models, but performance was not a function of model complexity or type (i.e. SatPPM vs. BOGCM); nearly all models underestimated the observed variance of PP, specifically yielding too few low PP (< 0.2 gC m-2d-2) values; more than half of the total root-mean-squared model-data differences associated with the satellite-based PP models might be accounted for by uncertainties in the input variables and/or the PP data; and the tropical Pacific database captures a broad scale shift from low biomass-normalized productivity in the 1980s to higher biomass-normalized productivity in the 1990s, which was not successfully captured by any of the models. This latter result suggests that interdecadal and global changes will be a significant challenge for both SatPPMs and BOGCMs. Finally, average root-mean-squared differences between in situ PP data on the equator at 140°W and PP estimates from the satellite-based productivity models were 58% lower than analogous values computed in a previous PP model comparison six years ago. The success of these types of comparison exercises is illustrated by the continual modification and improvement of the participating models and the resulting increase in model skill.
Carbon budget of tidal wetlands, estuaries, and shelf waters of eastern North America

(John Wiley & Sons, 2018-04-04) Najjar, Raymond G. ; Herrmann, Maria ; Alexander, Richard ; Boyer, Elizabeth W. ; Burdige, David J. ; Butman, David ; Cai, Wei-Jun ; Canuel, Elizabeth A. ; Chen, Robert F. ; Friedrichs, Marjorie A. M. ; Feagin, Russell A. ; Griffith, Peter C. ; Hinson, Audra L. ; Holmquist, James R. ; Hu, Xinping ; Kemp, William M. ; Kroeger, Kevin D. ; Mannino, Antonio ; McCallister, S. Leigh ; McGillis, Wade R. ; Mulholland, Margaret R. ; Pilskaln, Cynthia H. ; Salisbury, Joseph E. ; Signorini, Sergio R. ; St-Laurent, Pierre ; Tian, Hanqin ; Tzortziou, Maria ; Vlahos, Penny ; Wang, Zhaohui Aleck ; Zimmerman, Richard C.

Carbon cycling in the coastal zone affects global carbon budgets and is critical for understanding the urgent issues of hypoxia, acidification, and tidal wetland loss. However, there are no regional carbon budgets spanning the three main ecosystems in coastal waters: tidal wetlands, estuaries, and shelf waters. Here we construct such a budget for eastern North America using historical data, empirical models, remote sensing algorithms, and process‐based models. Considering the net fluxes of total carbon at the domain boundaries, 59 ± 12% (± 2 standard errors) of the carbon entering is from rivers and 41 ± 12% is from the atmosphere, while 80 ± 9% of the carbon leaving is exported to the open ocean and 20 ± 9% is buried. Net lateral carbon transfers between the three main ecosystem types are comparable to fluxes at the domain boundaries. Each ecosystem type contributes substantially to exchange with the atmosphere, with CO2 uptake split evenly between tidal wetlands and shelf waters, and estuarine CO2 outgassing offsetting half of the uptake. Similarly, burial is about equal in tidal wetlands and shelf waters, while estuaries play a smaller but still substantial role. The importance of tidal wetlands and estuaries in the overall budget is remarkable given that they, respectively, make up only 2.4 and 8.9% of the study domain area. This study shows that coastal carbon budgets should explicitly include tidal wetlands, estuaries, shelf waters, and the linkages between them; ignoring any of them may produce a biased picture of coastal carbon cycling.
Combining observations and numerical model results to improve estimates of hypoxic volume within the Chesapeake Bay, USA

(John Wiley & Sons, 2013-10-03) Lanerolle, Aaron J. ; Friedrichs, Marjorie A. M. ; Friedrichs, Carl T. ; Scully, Malcolm E. ; Lanerolle, Lyon W. J.

The overall size of the “dead zone” within the main stem of the Chesapeake Bay and its tidal tributaries is quantified by the hypoxic volume (HV), the volume of water with dissolved oxygen (DO) less than 2 mg/L. To improve estimates of HV, DO was subsampled from the output of 3-D model hindcasts at times/locations matching the set of 2004–2005 stations monitored by the Chesapeake Bay Program. The resulting station profiles were interpolated to produce bay-wide estimates of HV in a manner consistent with nonsynoptic, cruise-based estimates. Interpolations of the same stations sampled synoptically, as well as multiple other combinations of station profiles, were examined in order to quantify uncertainties associated with interpolating HV from observed profiles. The potential uncertainty in summer HV estimates resulting from profiles being collected over 2 weeks rather than synoptically averaged ∼5 km3. This is larger than that due to sampling at discrete stations and interpolating/extrapolating to the entire Chesapeake Bay (2.4 km3). As a result, sampling fewer, selected stations over a shorter time period is likely to reduce uncertainties associated with interpolating HV from observed profiles. A function was derived that when applied to a subset of 13 stations, significantly improved estimates of HV. Finally, multiple metrics for quantifying bay-wide hypoxia were examined, and cumulative hypoxic volume was determined to be particularly useful, as a result of its insensitivity to temporal errors and climate change. A final product of this analysis is a nearly three-decade time series of improved estimates of HV for Chesapeake Bay.
Meridional circulation in the tropical North Atlantic

(Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, 1993-01) Friedrichs, Marjorie A. M.

A transatlantic CTD/ADCP section nominally located at 11°N was carried out in March 1989. In this paper relative geostrophic velocities are computed from these data via the thermal wind balance, with reference level choices based primarly on water mass distributions. A brief overview of the meridional circulation of the upper waters resulting from these analysis techniques is presented. Schematic circulation patterns of the NADW and AAW are also presented. In both the western and eastern basins these waters are characterized by cyclonic recirculation gyres. A paricularly notable result of the deep western basin analysis is the negligible net flow of middle NADW. Although the horizontal circulation patterns described in this study agree well with results from many previous studies, the meridional overturning cell and net heat flux are considerably lower, while the net freshwater flux is slightly higher than previous estimates. These discrepancies may be attbuted to: (1) differences in methodologies, (2) the increased resolution of this section, and (3) temporal (including decadal, synoptic, and most importantly, seasonal) variability.
Daily to decadal ecological forecasting along North American coastlines

(Woods Hole Oceangraphic Institution, 2024-12-16) Capotondi, Antonietta ; Coles, Victoria J. ; Clayton, Sophie A. ; Friedrichs, Marjorie A. M. ; Gierach, Michelle ; Miller, Arthur J. ; Stock, Charles A.

Coastal areas share unique intersections of large-scale climate variability and local hydrology, wetland, benthic and pelagic ecosystems, and anthropogenic pressures. Forecasting of harmful environmental conditions for planning, adaptation, and mitigation purposes is both complex and urgently needed. Ecological forecasting is the qualitative or quantitative projection of biogeochemical, organismal or ecosystem state variables and their drivers on timescales that can range from “now” to decades from now. Estimating hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay today, predicting acidity conditions in the Northeast Pacific in a few months, or projecting the depth of the Bering Sea nutricline in 2075 are all ecological forecasts relevant to planning, adaptation, and mitigation efforts. In 2022, the US CLIVAR and Ocean Carbon & Biogeochemistry (OCB) Programs convened a joint workshop to advance the development of US ecological forecasting. The workshop goals were to 1) identify sources of predictability of physical quantities relevant for marine ecosystems along US coastlines; 2) assess the observational needs of forecast systems and limitations due to gaps in understanding; and 3) promote the development of dynamical and statistical models suitable to meet the forecasting requirements. About 80 participants from over 40 US and international institutions joined this hybrid workshop for plenary talks and breakout discussions. Participants represented a diversity of career stages across academic institutions, government agencies, and non-government organizations. By working together, they collectively identified a path forward for a coordinated US ecological forecasting effort as detailed in this report.

Friedrichs Marjorie A. M.

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