Overpeck Jonathan T.

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Overpeck
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Jonathan T.
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  • Article
    CO2 and fire influence tropical ecosystem stability in response to climate change
    (Nature Publishing Group, 2016-07-18) Shanahan, Timothy ; Hughen, Konrad A. ; McKay, Nicholas ; Overpeck, Jonathan T. ; Scholz, Christopher A. ; Gosling, William D. ; Miller, Charlotte S. ; Peck, John A. ; King, John W. ; Heil, Clifford W.
    Interactions between climate, fire and CO2 are believed to play a crucial role in controlling the distributions of tropical woodlands and savannas, but our understanding of these processes is limited by the paucity of data from undisturbed tropical ecosystems. Here we use a 28,000-year integrated record of vegetation, climate and fire from West Africa to examine the role of these interactions on tropical ecosystem stability. We find that increased aridity between 28–15 kyr B.P. led to the widespread expansion of tropical grasslands, but that frequent fires and low CO2 played a crucial role in stabilizing these ecosystems, even as humidity changed. This resulted in an unstable ecosystem state, which transitioned abruptly from grassland to woodlands as gradual changes in CO2 and fire shifted the balance in favor of woody plants. Since then, high atmospheric CO2 has stabilized tropical forests by promoting woody plant growth, despite increased aridity. Our results indicate that the interactions between climate, CO2 and fire can make tropical ecosystems more resilient to change, but that these systems are dynamically unstable and potentially susceptible to abrupt shifts between woodland and grassland dominated states in the future.
  • Article
    The continuum of drought in southwestern North America
    (American Meteorological Society, 2018-09-20) Parsons, Luke A. ; Coats, Sloan ; Overpeck, Jonathan T.
    Drought has severe consequences for humans and their environment, yet we have a limited understanding of the drivers of drought across the full range of time scales on which it occurs. Here, the atmosphere and ocean conditions that drive this continuum of drought variability in southwestern North America (SWNA) are studied using the latest observationally based products, paleoclimate reconstructions, and state-of-the-art Earth system model simulations of the last millennium. A novel application of the self-organizing maps (SOM) methodology allows for a visualization of the continuum of climate states coinciding with thousands of droughts of varying lengths in last millennium simulations from the Community Earth System Model (CESM), the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model E2-R (GISS E2-R), and eight other members from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). It is found that most droughts are associated with a cool Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) pattern, but persistent droughts can coincide with a variety of ocean–atmosphere states, including time periods showing a warm PDO or weak ocean–atmosphere anomalies. Many CMIP5 models simulate similar SWNA teleconnection patterns, but the SOM analysis demonstrates that models simulate different continuums of ocean–atmosphere states coinciding with droughts of different lengths, suggesting fundamental differences in their drought dynamics. These findings have important implications for our understanding and simulation of the drivers of persistent drought, and for their potential predictability.
  • Article
    Climate variability, volcanic forcing, and last millennium hydroclimate extremes
    (American Meteorological Society, 2018-05-03) Stevenson, Samantha ; Overpeck, Jonathan T. ; Fasullo, John T. ; Coats, Sloan ; Parsons, Luke A. ; Otto-Bliesner, Bette ; Ault, Toby ; Loope, Garrison ; Cole, Julia
    Multidecadal hydroclimate variability has been expressed as “megadroughts” (dry periods more severe and prolonged than observed over the twentieth century) and corresponding “megapluvial” wet periods in many regions around the world. The risk of such events is strongly affected by modes of coupled atmosphere–ocean variability and by external impacts on climate. Accurately assessing the mechanisms for these interactions is difficult, since it requires large ensembles of millennial simulations as well as long proxy time series. Here, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Last Millennium Ensemble is used to examine statistical associations among megaevents, coupled climate modes, and forcing from major volcanic eruptions. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) strongly affects hydroclimate extremes: larger ENSO amplitude reduces megadrought risk and persistence in the southwestern United States, the Sahel, monsoon Asia, and Australia, with corresponding increases in Mexico and the Amazon. The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) also alters megadrought risk, primarily in the Caribbean and the Amazon. Volcanic influences are felt primarily through enhancing AMO amplitude, as well as alterations in the structure of both ENSO and AMO teleconnections, which lead to differing manifestations of megadrought. These results indicate that characterizing hydroclimate variability requires an improved understanding of both volcanic climate impacts and variations in ENSO/AMO teleconnections.
  • Article
    Scanning micro-X-ray fluorescence elemental mapping : a new tool for the study of laminated sediment records
    (American Geophysical Union, 2008-02-27) Shanahan, Timothy M. ; Overpeck, Jonathan T. ; Hubeny, J. B. ; King, J. ; Hu, Feng Sheng ; Hughen, Konrad A. ; Miller, G. ; Black, J.
    The utility of elemental mapping by scanning X-ray fluorescence (XRF) in the study of annual laminated sedimentary records was investigated on eight annually laminated sediment types. The examples were chosen to illustrate the potential of this approach in environments dominated by terrigenous, biological and chemical deposition. Individual laminae were identifiable in elemental maps of all sediment types and were enhanced through the use of data reduction techniques (e.g., principal components transformation). Laminae were least apparent in clastic dominated systems with no seasonal changes in sediment sources. In biologically dominated systems, element maps provided insights into the composition of the varve subcomponents, related to alternating terrigenous and biologically dominated seasonal periods of deposition. Chemically precipitated structures were more prevalent than expected from visual investigations alone and may provide an underutilized paleoenvironmental signature of changing limnological conditions. Elemental mapping offers a valuable tool for the study of laminated records that complements existing techniques (e.g., SEM, digital image analysis).