Dutkiewicz
Stephanie
Dutkiewicz
Stephanie
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ArticleDiel light cycles affect phytoplankton competition in the global ocean(Wiley, 2022-07-02) Tsakalakis, Ioannis ; Follows, Michael J. ; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie ; Follett, Christopher L. ; Vallino, Joseph J.Aim Light, essential for photosynthesis, is present in two periodic cycles in nature: seasonal and diel. Although seasonality of light is typically resolved in ocean biogeochemical–ecosystem models because of its significance for seasonal succession and biogeography of phytoplankton, the diel light cycle is generally not resolved. The goal of this study is to demonstrate the impact of diel light cycles on phytoplankton competition and biogeography in the global ocean. Location Global ocean. Major taxa studied Phytoplankton. Methods We use a three-dimensional global ocean model and compare simulations of high temporal resolution with and without diel light cycles. The model simulates 15 phytoplankton types with different cell sizes, encompassing two broad ecological strategies: small cells with high nutrient affinity (gleaners) and larger cells with high maximal growth rate (opportunists). Both are grazed by zooplankton and limited by nitrogen, phosphorus and iron. Results Simulations show that diel cycles of light induce diel cycles in limiting nutrients in the global ocean. Diel nutrient cycles are associated with higher concentrations of limiting nutrients, by 100% at low latitudes (−40° to 40°), a process that increases the relative abundance of opportunists over gleaners. Size classes with the highest maximal growth rates from both gleaner and opportunist groups are favoured by diel light cycles. This mechanism weakens as latitude increases, because the effects of the seasonal cycle dominate over those of the diel cycle. Main conclusions Understanding the mechanisms that govern phytoplankton biogeography is crucial for predicting ocean ecosystem functioning and biogeochemical cycles. We show that the diel light cycle has a significant impact on phytoplankton competition and biogeography, indicating the need for understanding the role of diel processes in shaping macroecological patterns in the global ocean.
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ArticleProbabilistic forecast for twenty-first-century climate based on uncertainties in emissions (without policy) and climate parameters(American Meteorological Society, 2009-10-01) Sokolov, Andrei P. ; Stone, P. H. ; Forest, C. E. ; Prinn, Ronald G. ; Sarofim, Marcus C. ; Webster, M. ; Paltsev, Sergey ; Schlosser, C. Adam ; Kicklighter, David W. ; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie ; Reilly, John M. ; Wang, C. ; Felzer, Benjamin S. ; Melillo, Jerry M. ; Jacoby, Henry D.The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model is used to make probabilistic projections of climate change from 1861 to 2100. Since the model’s first projections were published in 2003, substantial improvements have been made to the model, and improved estimates of the probability distributions of uncertain input parameters have become available. The new projections are considerably warmer than the 2003 projections; for example, the median surface warming in 2091–2100 is 5.1°C compared to 2.4°C in the earlier study. Many changes contribute to the stronger warming; among the more important ones are taking into account the cooling in the second half of the twentieth century due to volcanic eruptions for input parameter estimation and a more sophisticated method for projecting gross domestic product (GDP) growth, which eliminated many low-emission scenarios. However, if recently published data, suggesting stronger twentieth-century ocean warming, are used to determine the input climate parameters, the median projected warming at the end of the twenty-first century is only 4.1°C. Nevertheless, all ensembles of the simulations discussed here produce a much smaller probability of warming less than 2.4°C than implied by the lower bound of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) projected likely range for the A1FI scenario, which has forcing very similar to the median projection in this study. The probability distribution for the surface warming produced by this analysis is more symmetric than the distribution assumed by the IPCC because of a different feedback between the climate and the carbon cycle, resulting from the inclusion in this model of the carbon–nitrogen interaction in the terrestrial ecosystem.
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ArticleCorrigendum(American Meteorological Society, 2010-04-15) Sokolov, Andrei P. ; Stone, P. H. ; Forest, C. E. ; Prinn, Ronald G. ; Sarofim, Marcus C. ; Webster, M. ; Paltsev, Sergey ; Schlosser, C. Adam ; Kicklighter, David W. ; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie ; Reilly, John M. ; Wang, C. ; Felzer, Benjamin S. ; Melillo, Jerry M. ; Jacoby, Henry D.Corrigendum: Sokolov, A., and Coauthors, 2009: Probabilistic forecast for twenty-first-century climate based on uncertainties in emissions (without policy) and climate parameters. J. Climate, 22, 5175–5204.
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ArticleOceanic sources, sinks, and transport of atmospheric CO2(American Geophysical Union, 2009-02-18) Gruber, Nicolas ; Gloor, Emanuel ; Mikaloff Fletcher, Sara E. ; Doney, Scott C. ; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie ; Follows, Michael J. ; Gerber, Markus ; Jacobson, Andrew R. ; Joos, Fortunat ; Lindsay, Keith ; Menemenlis, Dimitris ; Mouchet, Anne ; Muller, Simon A. ; Sarmiento, Jorge L. ; Takahashi, TaroWe synthesize estimates of the contemporary net air-sea CO2 flux on the basis of an inversion of interior ocean carbon observations using a suite of 10 ocean general circulation models (Mikaloff Fletcher et al., 2006, 2007) and compare them to estimates based on a new climatology of the air-sea difference of the partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) (Takahashi et al., 2008). These two independent flux estimates reveal a consistent description of the regional distribution of annual mean sources and sinks of atmospheric CO2 for the decade of the 1990s and the early 2000s with differences at the regional level of generally less than 0.1 Pg C a−1. This distribution is characterized by outgassing in the tropics, uptake in midlatitudes, and comparatively small fluxes in thehigh latitudes. Both estimates point toward a small (∼ −0.3 Pg C a−1) contemporary CO2 sink in the Southern Ocean (south of 44°S), a result of the near cancellation between a substantial outgassing of natural CO2 and a strong uptake of anthropogenic CO2. A notable exception in the generally good agreement between the two estimates exists within the Southern Ocean: the ocean inversion suggests a relatively uniform uptake, while the pCO2-based estimate suggests strong uptake in the region between 58°S and 44°S, and a source in the region south of 58°S. Globally and for a nominal period between 1995 and 2000, the contemporary net air-sea flux of CO2 is estimated to be −1.7 ± 0.4 Pg C a−1 (inversion) and −1.4 ± 0.7 Pg C a−1 (pCO2-climatology), respectively, consisting of an outgassing flux of river-derived carbon of ∼+0.5 Pg C a−1, and an uptake flux of anthropogenic carbon of −2.2 ± 0.3 Pg C a−1 (inversion) and −1.9 ± 0.7 Pg C a−1 (pCO2-climatology). The two flux estimates also imply a consistent description of the contemporary meridional transport of carbon with southward ocean transport throughout most of the Atlantic basin, and strong equatorward convergence in the Indo-Pacific basins. Both transport estimates suggest a small hemispheric asymmetry with a southward transport of between −0.2 and −0.3 Pg C a−1 across the equator. While the convergence of these two independent estimates is encouraging and suggests that it is now possible to provide relatively tight constraints for the net air-sea CO2 fluxes at the regional basis, both studies are limited by their lack of consideration of long-term changes in the ocean carbon cycle, such as the recent possible stalling in the expected growth of the Southern Ocean carbon sink.
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ArticleMesoscale modulation of air-sea CO2 flux in Drake Passage(John Wiley & Sons, 2016-09-10) Song, Hajoon ; Marshall, John ; Munro, David R. ; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie ; Sweeney, Colm ; McGillicuddy, Dennis J. ; Hausmann, UteWe investigate the role of mesoscale eddies in modulating air-sea CO2 flux and associated biogeochemical fields in Drake Passage using in situ observations and an eddy-resolving numerical model. Both observations and model show a negative correlation between temperature and partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) anomalies at the sea surface in austral summer, indicating that warm/cold anticyclonic/cyclonic eddies take up more/less CO2. In austral winter, in contrast, relationships are reversed: warm/cold anticyclonic/cyclonic eddies are characterized by a positive/negative pCO2 anomaly and more/less CO2 outgassing. It is argued that DIC-driven effects on pCO2 are greater than temperature effects in austral summer, leading to a negative correlation. In austral winter, however, the reverse is true. An eddy-centric analysis of the model solution reveals that nitrate and iron respond differently to the same vertical mixing: vertical mixing has a greater impact on iron because its normalized vertical gradient at the base of the surface mixed layer is an order of magnitude greater than that of nitrate.
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ArticleModeling transport and fate of riverine dissolved organic carbon in the Arctic Ocean(American Geophysical Union, 2009-10-07) Manizza, Manfredi ; Follows, Michael J. ; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie ; McClelland, James W. ; Menemenlis, Dimitris ; Hill, C. N. ; Townsend-Small, Amy ; Peterson, Bruce J.The spatial distribution and fate of riverine dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the Arctic may be significant for the regional carbon cycle but are difficult to fully characterize using the sparse observations alone. Numerical models of the circulation and biogeochemical cycles of the region can help to interpret and extrapolate the data and may ultimately be applied in global change sensitivity studies. Here we develop and explore a regional, three-dimensional model of the Arctic Ocean in which, for the first time, we explicitly represent the sources of riverine DOC with seasonal discharge based on climatological field estimates. Through a suite of numerical experiments, we explore the distribution of DOC-like tracers with realistic riverine sources and a simple linear decay to represent remineralization through microbial degradation. The model reproduces the slope of the DOC-salinity relationship observed in the eastern and western Arctic basins when the DOC tracer lifetime is about 10 years, consistent with published inferences from field data. The new empirical parameterization of riverine DOC and the regional circulation and biogeochemical model provide new tools for application in both regional and global change studies.
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ArticleChallenges of modeling depth-integrated marine primary productivity over multiple decades : a case study at BATS and HOT(American Geophysical Union, 2010-09-15) Saba, Vincent S. ; Friedrichs, Marjorie A. M. ; Carr, Mary-Elena ; Antoine, David ; Armstrong, Robert A. ; Asanuma, Ichio ; Aumont, Olivier ; Bates, Nicholas R. ; Behrenfeld, Michael J. ; Bennington, Val ; Bopp, Laurent ; Bruggeman, Jorn ; Buitenhuis, Erik T. ; Church, Matthew J. ; Ciotti, Aurea M. ; Doney, Scott C. ; Dowell, Mark ; Dunne, John P. ; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie ; Gregg, Watson ; Hoepffner, Nicolas ; Hyde, Kimberly J. W. ; Ishizaka, Joji ; Kameda, Takahiko ; Karl, David M. ; Lima, Ivan D. ; Lomas, Michael W. ; Marra, John F. ; McKinley, Galen A. ; Melin, Frederic ; Moore, J. Keith ; Morel, Andre ; O'Reilly, John ; Salihoglu, Baris ; Scardi, Michele ; Smyth, Tim J. ; Tang, Shilin ; Tjiputra, Jerry ; Uitz, Julia ; Vichi, Marcello ; Waters, Kirk ; Westberry, Toby K. ; Yool, AndrewThe performance of 36 models (22 ocean color models and 14 biogeochemical ocean circulation models (BOGCMs)) that estimate depth-integrated marine net primary productivity (NPP) was assessed by comparing their output to in situ 14C data at the Bermuda Atlantic Time series Study (BATS) and the Hawaii Ocean Time series (HOT) over nearly two decades. Specifically, skill was assessed based on the models' ability to estimate the observed mean, variability, and trends of NPP. At both sites, more than 90% of the models underestimated mean NPP, with the average bias of the BOGCMs being nearly twice that of the ocean color models. However, the difference in overall skill between the best BOGCM and the best ocean color model at each site was not significant. Between 1989 and 2007, in situ NPP at BATS and HOT increased by an average of nearly 2% per year and was positively correlated to the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation index. The majority of ocean color models produced in situ NPP trends that were closer to the observed trends when chlorophyll-a was derived from high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC), rather than fluorometric or SeaWiFS data. However, this was a function of time such that average trend magnitude was more accurately estimated over longer time periods. Among BOGCMs, only two individual models successfully produced an increasing NPP trend (one model at each site). We caution against the use of models to assess multiannual changes in NPP over short time periods. Ocean color model estimates of NPP trends could improve if more high quality HPLC chlorophyll-a time series were available.
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ArticleInverse estimates of anthropogenic CO2 uptake, transport, and storage by the ocean(American Geophysical Union, 2006-04-05) Mikaloff Fletcher, Sara E. ; Gruber, Nicolas ; Jacobson, Andrew R. ; Doney, Scott C. ; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie ; Gerber, Markus ; Follows, Michael J. ; Joos, Fortunat ; Lindsay, Keith ; Menemenlis, Dimitris ; Mouchet, Anne ; Muller, Simon A. ; Sarmiento, Jorge L.Regional air-sea fluxes of anthropogenic CO2 are estimated using a Green's function inversion method that combines data-based estimates of anthropogenic CO2 in the ocean with information about ocean transport and mixing from a suite of Ocean General Circulation Models (OGCMs). In order to quantify the uncertainty associated with the estimated fluxes owing to modeled transport and errors in the data, we employ 10 OGCMs and three scenarios representing biases in the data-based anthropogenic CO2 estimates. On the basis of the prescribed anthropogenic CO2 storage, we find a global uptake of 2.2 ± 0.25 Pg C yr−1, scaled to 1995. This error estimate represents the standard deviation of the models weighted by a CFC-based model skill score, which reduces the error range and emphasizes those models that have been shown to reproduce observed tracer concentrations most accurately. The greatest anthropogenic CO2 uptake occurs in the Southern Ocean and in the tropics. The flux estimates imply vigorous northward transport in the Southern Hemisphere, northward cross-equatorial transport, and equatorward transport at high northern latitudes. Compared with forward simulations, we find substantially more uptake in the Southern Ocean, less uptake in the Pacific Ocean, and less global uptake. The large-scale spatial pattern of the estimated flux is generally insensitive to possible biases in the data and the models employed. However, the global uptake scales approximately linearly with changes in the global anthropogenic CO2 inventory. Considerable uncertainties remain in some regions, particularly the Southern Ocean.
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ArticleInverse estimates of the oceanic sources and sinks of natural CO2 and the implied oceanic carbon transport(American Geophysical Union, 2007-02-10) Mikaloff Fletcher, Sara E. ; Gruber, Nicolas ; Jacobson, Andrew R. ; Gloor, Emanuel ; Doney, Scott C. ; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie ; Gerber, Markus ; Follows, Michael J. ; Joos, Fortunat ; Lindsay, Keith ; Menemenlis, Dimitris ; Mouchet, Anne ; Muller, Simon A. ; Sarmiento, Jorge L.We use an inverse method to estimate the global-scale pattern of the air-sea flux of natural CO2, i.e., the component of the CO2 flux due to the natural carbon cycle that already existed in preindustrial times, on the basis of ocean interior observations of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and other tracers, from which we estimate ΔC gasex , i.e., the component of the observed DIC that is due to the gas exchange of natural CO2. We employ a suite of 10 different Ocean General Circulation Models (OGCMs) to quantify the error arising from uncertainties in the modeled transport required to link the interior ocean observations to the surface fluxes. The results from the contributing OGCMs are weighted using a model skill score based on a comparison of each model's simulated natural radiocarbon with observations. We find a pattern of air-sea flux of natural CO2 characterized by outgassing in the Southern Ocean between 44°S and 59°S, vigorous uptake at midlatitudes of both hemispheres, and strong outgassing in the tropics. In the Northern Hemisphere and the tropics, the inverse estimates generally agree closely with the natural CO2 flux results from forward simulations of coupled OGCM-biogeochemistry models undertaken as part of the second phase of the Ocean Carbon Model Intercomparison Project (OCMIP-2). The OCMIP-2 simulations find far less air-sea exchange than the inversion south of 20°S, but more recent forward OGCM studies are in better agreement with the inverse estimates in the Southern Hemisphere. The strong source and sink pattern south of 20°S was not apparent in an earlier inversion study, because the choice of region boundaries led to a partial cancellation of the sources and sinks. We show that the inversely estimated flux pattern is clearly traceable to gradients in the observed ΔC gasex , and that it is relatively insensitive to the choice of OGCM or potential biases in ΔC gasex . Our inverse estimates imply a southward interhemispheric transport of 0.31 ± 0.02 Pg C yr−1, most of which occurs in the Atlantic. This is considerably smaller than the 1 Pg C yr−1 of Northern Hemisphere uptake that has been inferred from atmospheric CO2 observations during the 1980s and 1990s, which supports the hypothesis of a Northern Hemisphere terrestrial sink.
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ArticleReviews and syntheses: the biogeochemical cycle of silicon in the modern ocean(European Geosciences Union, 2021-02-18) Tréguer, Paul J. ; Sutton, Jill N. ; Brzezinski, Mark A. ; Charette, Matthew A. ; DeVries, Timothy ; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie ; Ehlert, Claudia ; Hawkings, Jon ; Leynaert, Aude ; Liu, Su Mei ; Llopis Monferrer, Natalia ; López-Acosta, María ; Maldonado, Manuel ; Rahman, Shaily ; Ran, Lihua ; Rouxel, OlivierThe element silicon (Si) is required for the growth of silicified organisms in marine environments, such as diatoms. These organisms consume vast amounts of Si together with N, P, and C, connecting the biogeochemical cycles of these elements. Thus, understanding the Si cycle in the ocean is critical for understanding wider issues such as carbon sequestration by the ocean's biological pump. In this review, we show that recent advances in process studies indicate that total Si inputs and outputs, to and from the world ocean, are 57 % and 37 % higher, respectively, than previous estimates. We also update the total ocean silicic acid inventory value, which is about 24 % higher than previously estimated. These changes are significant, modifying factors such as the geochemical residence time of Si, which is now about 8000 years, 2 times faster than previously assumed. In addition, we present an updated value of the global annual pelagic biogenic silica production (255 Tmol Si yr−1) based on new data from 49 field studies and 18 model outputs, and we provide a first estimate of the global annual benthic biogenic silica production due to sponges (6 Tmol Si yr−1). Given these important modifications, we hypothesize that the modern ocean Si cycle is at approximately steady state with inputs =14.8(±2.6) Tmol Si yr−1 and outputs =15.6(±2.4) Tmol Si yr−1. Potential impacts of global change on the marine Si cycle are discussed.
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ArticleToward a consistent modeling framework to assess multi-sectoral climate impacts(Nature Publishing Group, 2018-02-13) Monier, Erwan ; Paltsev, Sergey ; Sokolov, Andrei P. ; Chen, Y.-H. Henry ; Gao, Xiang ; Ejaz, Qudsia ; Couzo, Evan ; Schlosser, C. Adam ; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie ; Fant, Charles ; Scott, Jeffery ; Kicklighter, David W. ; Morris, Jennifer ; Jacoby, Henry D. ; Prinn, Ronald G. ; Haigh, MartinEfforts to estimate the physical and economic impacts of future climate change face substantial challenges. To enrich the currently popular approaches to impact analysis—which involve evaluation of a damage function or multi-model comparisons based on a limited number of standardized scenarios—we propose integrating a geospatially resolved physical representation of impacts into a coupled human-Earth system modeling framework. Large internationally coordinated exercises cannot easily respond to new policy targets and the implementation of standard scenarios across models, institutions and research communities can yield inconsistent estimates. Here, we argue for a shift toward the use of a self-consistent integrated modeling framework to assess climate impacts, and discuss ways the integrated assessment modeling community can move in this direction. We then demonstrate the capabilities of such a modeling framework by conducting a multi-sectoral assessment of climate impacts under a range of consistent and integrated economic and climate scenarios that are responsive to new policies and business expectations.
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BookReport on the “Trait-based approaches to ocean life” scoping workshop, October 5-8, 2015(Ocean Carbon and Biogeochemistry Program, 2016-05) Barton, Andrew D. ; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie ; Andersen, Ken H. ; Fiksen, Øyvind Ø. F. ; Follows, Michael J. ; Mouw, Colleen B. ; Record, Nicholas R. ; Rynearson, Tatiana A.From the introduction: Marine ecosystems are rich and biodiverse, often populated by thousands of competing and interacting species with a vast range of behaviors, forms, and life histories. This great ecological complexity presents a formidable challenge to understanding how marine ecosystems are structured and controlled, but also how they respond to natural and anthropogenic changes. The trait-based approach to ocean life is emerging as a novel framework for understanding the complexity, structure, and dynamics of marine ecosystems, but also their broader significance. Rather than considering species individually, organisms are characterized by essential traits that capture key aspects of diversity. Trait distributions in the ocean emerge through evolution and natural selection, and are mediated by the environment, biological interactions, anthropogenic drivers, and organism behavior. Because trait variations within and across communities lead to variation in the rates of crucial ecosystem functions such as carbon export, this mechanistic approach sheds light on how variability in the environment, including climate change, impacts marine ecosystems, biogeochemical cycles, and associated feedbacks to climate and society.
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ArticleA model of the Arctic Ocean carbon cycle(American Geophysical Union, 2011-12-15) Manizza, Manfredi ; Follows, Michael J. ; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie ; Menemenlis, Dimitris ; McClelland, James W. ; Hill, C. N. ; Peterson, Bruce J. ; Key, Robert M.A three dimensional model of Arctic Ocean circulation and mixing, with a horizontal resolution of 18 km, is overlain by a biogeochemical model resolving the physical, chemical and biological transport and transformations of phosphorus, alkalinity, oxygen and carbon, including the air-sea exchange of dissolved gases and the riverine delivery of dissolved organic carbon. The model qualitatively captures the observed regional and seasonal trends in surface ocean PO4, dissolved inorganic carbon, total alkalinity, and pCO2. Integrated annually, over the basin, the model suggests a net annual uptake of 59 Tg C a−1, within the range of published estimates based on the extrapolation of local observations (20–199 Tg C a−1). This flux is attributable to the cooling (increasing solubility) of waters moving into the basin, mainly from the subpolar North Atlantic. The air-sea flux is regulated seasonally and regionally by sea-ice cover, which modulates both air-sea gas transfer and the photosynthetic production of organic matter, and by the delivery of riverine dissolved organic carbon (RDOC), which drive the regional contrasts in pCO2 between Eurasian and North American coastal waters. Integrated over the basin, the delivery and remineralization of RDOC reduces the net oceanic CO2 uptake by ~10%.
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ArticleChallenges and opportunities in connecting gene count observations with ocean biogeochemical models: Reply to Zehr and Riemann (2023)(Association for the Sciences of Limnology and Oceanography, 2023-05-08) Meiler, Simona ; Britten, Gregory L. ; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie ; Moisander, Pia H. ; Follows, Michael J.As authors of Meiler et al. (2022), we welcome Zehr and Riemann's (2023) comment and discussion. We agree, of course, with the general statement that “quantification of gene copy numbers is valuable in marine microbial ecology” and wish to clarify that one of the purposes of Meiler et al. (2022) was to address the specific challenge of using a compilation of quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) nifH data to evaluate the skill of biogeochemical models. In that particular case, the data were most helpful in constraining the range of diazotrophs, but several sources of uncertainty limited more detailed quantitative evaluations. This was not intended to imply a lack of value or promise for such applications of qPCR data: we believe that testing and constraining biogeochemical and ecological models will be an important application of qPCR data, yet the quantitative interface between molecular data and biogeochemical models remains at its infancy. In the following, we first provide a background perspective for the Meiler et al. (2022) study, pointing out why observations and simulations are rooted in different currencies. We then discuss in more detail some of the specific points raised by Zehr and Riemann (2023) and highlight why further efforts toward intercalibration of currencies used to measure and simulate marine microbial populations is particularly significant if we are to fully exploit the data in biogeochemical and climate modeling applications. We end by summarizing some potentially fruitful avenues for future effort stimulated by this dialog.
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ArticleAssessing the potential of backscattering as a proxy for phytoplankton carbon biomass(American Geophysical Union, 2023-04-28) Serra‐Pompei, Camila ; Hickman, Anna ; Britten, Gregory L. ; Dutkiewicz, StephanieDespite phytoplankton contributing roughly half of the photosynthesis on earth and fueling marine food‐webs, field measurements of phytoplankton biomass remain scarce. The particulate backscattering coefficient (bbp) has often been used as an optical proxy to estimate phytoplankton carbon biomass (Cphyto). However, total observed bbp is impacted by phytoplankton size, cell composition, and non‐algal particles. The lack of phytoplankton field data has prevented the quantification of uncertainties driven by these factors. Here, we first review and discuss existing bbp algorithms by applying them to bbp data from the BGC‐Argo array in surface waters (<10 m). We find a bbp threshold where estimated Cphyto differs by more than an order of magnitude. Next, we use a global ocean circulation model (the MITgcm Biogeochemical and Optical model) that simulates plankton dynamics and associated inherent optical properties to quantify and understand uncertainties from bbp‐based algorithms in surface waters. We do so by developing and calibrating an algorithm to the model. Simulated error‐estimations show that bbp‐based algorithms overestimate/underestimate Cphyto between 5% and 100% in surface waters, depending on the location and time. This is achieved in the ideal scenario where Cphyto and bbp are known precisely. This is not the case for algorithms derived from observations, where the largest source of uncertainty is the scarcity of phytoplankton biomass data and related methodological inconsistencies. If these other uncertainties are reduced, the model shows that bbp could be a relatively good proxy for phytoplankton carbon biomass, with errors close to 20% in most regions.Key PointsPhytoplankton carbon bbp‐based algorithms can differ up to an order of magnitude at low bbp valuesAn algorithm fitted to a global model output shows biases ranging between 15% and 40% in most regionsMost uncertainties are due to the relative contribution of phytoplankton to total bbp