Goodkin Nathalie F.

Last Name

Goodkin

First Name

Nathalie F.

ORCID

0000-0001-9697-5520

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Coupled model biases breed spurious low‐frequency variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean

(John Wiley & Sons, 2018-10-07) Samanta, Dhrubajyoti ; Karnauskas, Kristopher B. ; Goodkin, Nathalie F. ; Coats, Sloan ; Smerdon, Jason E. ; Zhang, Lei

Coupled general circulation model (GCM) biases in the tropical Pacific are substantial, including a westward extended cold sea surface temperature (SST) bias linked to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Investigation of internal climate variability at centennial timescales using multicentury control integrations of 27 GCMs suggests that a Pacific Centennial Oscillation emerges in GCMs with too strong ENSO variability in the equatorial Pacific, including westward extended SST variability. Using a stochastic model of climate variability (Hasselmann type), we diagnose such centennial SST variance in the western equatorial Pacific. The consistency of a simple stochastic model with complex GCMs suggests that a previously defined Pacific Centennial Oscillation may be driven by biases in high‐frequency ENSO forcing in the western equatorial Pacific. A cautious evaluation of long‐term trends in the tropical Pacific from GCMs is necessary because significant trends in historical and future simulations are possible consequences of biases in simulated internal variability alone.
East Asian Monsoon variability since the sixteenth century

(American Geophysical Union, 2019-04-16) Goodkin, Nathalie F. ; Bolton, Annette ; Hughen, Konrad A. ; Karnauskas, Kristopher B. ; Griffin, Sheila ; Phan, Kim Hoang ; Vo, Si Tuan ; Ong, Maria Rosabelle ; Druffel, Ellen R. M.

The East Asian Monsoon (EAM) impacts storms, freshwater availability, wind energy production, coal consumption, and subsequent air quality for billions of people across Asia. Despite its importance, the EAM's long‐term behavior is poorly understood. Here we present an annually resolved record of EAM variance from 1584 to 1950 based on radiocarbon content in a coral from the coast of Vietnam. The coral record reveals previously undocumented centennial scale changes in EAM variance during both the summer and winter seasons, with an overall decline from 1600 to the present. Such long‐term variations in monsoon variance appear to reflect independent seasonal mechanisms that are a combination of changes in continental temperature, the strength of the Siberian High, and El Niño–Southern Oscillation behavior. We conclude that the EAM is an important conduit for propagating climate signals from the tropics to higher latitudes.
A multicoral calibration method to approximate a universal equation relating Sr/Ca and growth rate to sea surface temperature

(American Geophysical Union, 2007-03-01) Goodkin, Nathalie F. ; Hughen, Konrad A. ; Cohen, Anne L.

Combining strontium-to-calcium ratios (Sr/Ca) with mean annual growth rates in Bermuda Diploria labyrinthiformis (brain corals) is shown to improve sea surface temperature (SST) calibrations relative to instrumental data. Growth-corrected Sr/Ca–SST calibrations based on single-coral colonies over the same calibration interval, however, are found to be poorly suited for application to data from different coral colonies. This raises concerns about the accuracy of SST reconstructions from fossil coral measurements that involve extrapolation beyond the range of values seen during the calibration period. Here we pursue a novel approach to this problem by incorporating data from multiple coral colonies into a single growth-corrected Sr/Ca–SST calibration equation, effectively expanding the range of modern values constraining the model. The use of a multiple-colony calibration model for reconstructing SST yields greater precision and accuracy relative to instrumental data than single-colony models, providing greater confidence for applications to fossil coral samples.
Environmental assessment of metal exposure to corals living in Castle Harbour, Bermuda

(Elsevier B.V., 2013-05-07) Prouty, Nancy G. ; Goodkin, Nathalie F. ; Jones, R. ; Lamborg, Carl H. ; Storlazzi, Curt D. ; Hughen, Konrad A.

Environmental contamination in Castle Harbour, Bermuda, has been linked to the dissolution and leaching of contaminants from the adjacent marine landfill. This study expands the evidence for environmental impact of leachate from the landfill by quantitatively demonstrating elevated metal uptake over the last 30 years in corals growing in Castle Harbour. Coral Pb/Ca, Zn/Ca and Mn/Ca ratios and total Hg concentrations are elevated relative to an adjacent control site in John Smith's Bay. The temporal variability in the Castle Harbour coral records suggests that while the landfill has increased in size over the last 35 years, the dominant input of metals is through periodic leaching of contaminants from the municipal landfill and surrounding sediment. Elevated contaminants in the surrounding sediment suggest that resuspension is an important transport medium for transferring heavy metals to corals. Increased winds, particularly during the 1990s, were accompanied by higher coral metal composition at Castle Harbour. Coupled with wind-induced resuspension, interannual changes in sea level within the Harbour can lead to increased bioavailability of sediment-bound metals and subsequent coral metal assimilation. At John Smith's Bay, large scale convective mixing may be driving interannual metal variability in the coral record rather than impacts from land-based activities. Results from this study provide important insights into the coupling of natural variability and anthropogenic input of contaminants to the nearshore environment.
Environmental calibration of coral luminescence as a proxy for terrigenous dissolved organic carbon concentration in tropical coastal oceans

(American Geophysical Union, 2022-08-27) Kaushal, Nikita ; Tanzil, Jani T. I. ; Zhou, Yongli ; Ong, Maria Rosabelle ; Goodkin, Nathalie F. ; Martin, Patrick

The riverine flux of terrigenous dissolved organic matter (tDOM) to the ocean is a significant contributor to the global carbon cycle. In response to anthropogenic drivers the flux is expected to increase. This may impact the availability of sunlight in coastal ecosystems, and the seawater carbonate system and coastal CO2 fluxes. Despite its significance, there are few long‐term and high‐resolution time series of tDOM parameters. Corals incorporate fluorescent tDOM molecules from the chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) pool in their skeletons. The resulting coral skeletal luminescence variability has traditionally been used to reconstruct hydroclimate variation. Here, we use two replicate coral cores and concurrent in‐situ biogeochemical data from the Sunda Shelf Sea in Southeast Asia, where peatlands supply high tDOM inputs, to show that variability in coral luminescence green‐to‐blue ratios (coral G/B) can be used to quantitatively reconstruct terrigenous dissolved organic carbon (tDOC) concentration. Moreover, coral G/B can be used to reconstruct the CDOM absorption spectrum from 230 to 550 nm, and the specific ultraviolet absorbance at 254 nm (SUVA254) of the DOM pool. Comparison to a core from Borneo shows that there may be site‐specific offsets in the G/B–CDOM absorption relationship, but that the slope of the relationship is very similar, validating the robustness of the proxy. By demonstrating that corals can be used to estimate past changes in coastal tDOC and CDOM, we establish a method to study drivers of land–ocean tDOM fluxes and their ecological consequences in tropical coastal seas over decadal to centennial time scales.
Spatial and temporal robustness of Sr/Ca‐SST calibrations in Red Sea corals : evidence for influence of mean annual temperature on calibration slopes

(John Wiley & Sons, 2018-05-09) Murty, Sujata A. ; Bernstein, Whitney N. ; Ossolinski, Justin E. ; Davis, R. S. ; Goodkin, Nathalie F. ; Hughen, Konrad A.

Sr/Ca ratios recorded in the aragonite skeleton of massive coral colonies are commonly used to reconstruct seasonal‐ to centennial‐scale variability in sea surface temperature (SST). While the Sr/Ca paleothermometer is robust in individual colonies, Sr/Ca‐SST relationships between colonies vary, leading to questions regarding the utility of the proxy. We present biweekly‐resolution calibrations of Sr/Ca from five Porites spp. corals to satellite SST across 10° of latitude in the Red Sea to evaluate the Sr/Ca proxy across both spatial and temporal scales. SST is significantly correlated with coral Sr/Ca at each site, accounting for 69–84% of Sr/Ca variability (P ≪ 0.01). Intercolony variability in Sr/Ca‐SST sensitivities reveals a latitudinal trend, where calibration slopes become shallower with increasing mean annual temperature. Mean annual temperature is strongly correlated with the biweekly‐resolution calibration slopes across five Red Sea sites (r2 = 0.88, P = 0.05), while also correlating significantly to Sr/Ca‐SST slopes for 33 Porites corals from across the entire Indo‐Pacific region (r2 = 0.26, P < 0.01). Although interannual summer, winter, and mean annual calibrations for individual Red Sea colonies are inconsistently robust, combined multicoral calibrations are significant at summer (r2 = 0.53, P ≪ 0.01), winter (r2 = 0.62, P ≪ 0.01), and mean annual time scales (r2 = 0.79, P ≪ 0.01). Our multicoral, multisite study indicates that the Sr/Ca paleothermometer is accurate across both temporal and spatial scales in the Red Sea and also potentially explains for the first time variability in Sr/Ca‐SST calibration slopes across the Indo‐Pacific region. Our study provides strong evidence supporting the robustness of the coral Sr/Ca proxy for examining seasonal to multicentury variability in global climate phenomena.
Geochemistry of slow-growing corals : reconstructing sea surface temperature, salinity and the North Atlantic Oscillation

(Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, 2007-06) Goodkin, Nathalie F.

A 225-year old coral from the south shore of Bermuda (64°W, 32°N) provides a record of decadal-to-centennial scale climate variability. The coral was collected live, and sub-annual density bands seen in x-radiographs delineate cold and warm seasons allowing for precise dating. Coral skeletons incorporate strontium (Sr) and calcium (Ca) in relative proportions inversely to the sea surface temperature (SST) in which the skeleton is secreted. δ18O of the coral skeleton changes based on both temperature and the δ18O of sea water (δOw), and δOw is proportional to sea surface salinity (SSS). Understanding long-term climate variability requires the reconstruction of key climate parameters, such as sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity, in records extending beyond the relatively short instrumental period. The high accretion rates, longevity, and skeletal growth bands found in coral skeletons make them an ideal resource for well-dated, seasonal climate reconstructions. Growing between 2 and 6 mm/year and reaching more than 1m in length, slow-growing corals provide multi-century records from one colony. Additionally, unlike the fast growing (10-20 mm/year) species Porites, slow-growing species are generally found in both tropical and sub-tropical locations greatly expanding the geographical location of these records. A high resolution record (HRR, ~11 samples per year) was drilled for the entire length of the coral record (218 years). Samples were split and Sr/Ca, δ18O, and δ13C were measured for each sample. Sr/Ca was used to reconstruct winter time and mean-annual SST. Oxygen isotopic measurements were used to determine directional salinity changes, in conjunction with Sr/Ca based SST reconstructions. Winter-time and mean annual SSTs show SSTs ~1.5 °C colder during the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA) relative to today. Simultaneously, SSS is fresher during that time. Sr/Ca based climate reconstructions from coral skeletons have been met with some skepticism because some reconstructions show temperature changes back in time that are 2-4 times greater than the reconstructions of other marine proxies. In this study, we show that when using bulk-sampled, slow-growing corals, two steps are critical to producing accurate reconstructions: 1) incorporating growth rate into multi-variant regressions with SST and Sr/Ca and 2) using multiple colonies that grew at the same time with varying average growth rates and Sr/Ca. Application of these novel methods over the period of the instrumental record from Hydrostation S (monthly since 1954, 32º10'N, 64º30'W) reduces the root mean square of the residuals between the reconstructed SST and the instrumental SST by as much as 1.52°C to 0.46°C for three coral colonies. Winter-time SSTs at Bermuda are correlated to phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a meridional oscillation in atmospheric mass. Much uncertainty remains about the relationship between the NAO and the ocean, and one critical outstanding question is whether anthropogenic changes are perturbing the system. Using winter Sr/Ca as a proxy for temperature, we show strong coherence to the NAO at multi-decadal and inter-annual frequencies. These coral records show significant changes in variance in the NAO during the late 20th century compared to the cooler LIA, but limited changes in the mean phase (positive or negative) of the NAO, implying that climate change may be pushing the NAO to extremes but not to a new mean position.
Sea surface temperature and salinity variability at Bermuda during the end of the Little Ice Age

(American Geophysical Union, 2008-07-09) Goodkin, Nathalie F. ; Hughen, Konrad A. ; Curry, William B. ; Doney, Scott C. ; Ostermann, Dorinda R.

We use geochemical and isotope measurements on a 225-year old brain coral (Diploria labyrinthiformis) from the south shore of Bermuda (64°W, 32°N) to construct a record of decadal-to-centennial-scale climate variability. The coral was collected alive, and annual density bands visible in X radiographs delineate cold and warm seasons allowing for precise dating. Coral skeletons incorporate strontium (Sr) and calcium (Ca) in relative proportions inversely to the sea surface temperature (SST) in which the skeleton is secreted. Previous studies on this and other coral colonies from this region document the ability to reconstruct mean annual and wintertime SST using Sr/Ca measurements ( Goodkin et al., 2007 , 2005). The coral-based records of SST for the past 2 centuries show abrupt shifts at both decadal and centennial timescales and suggest that SST at the end of the Little Ice Age (between 1840 and 1860) was 1.5° ± 0.4°C colder than today (1990s). Coral-reconstructed SST has a greater magnitude change than does a gridded instrumental SST record from this region. This may result from several physical processes including high rates of mesoscale eddy propagation in this region. Oxygen isotope values (δ 18O) of the coral skeleton reflect changes in both temperature and the δ 18O of seawater (δOw), where δOw is proportional to sea surface salinity (SSS). We show in this study that mean annual and wintertime δ 18O of the carbonate (δOc) are correlated to both SST and SSS, but a robust, quantitative measure of SSS is not found with present calibration data. In combination, however, the Sr/Ca and δOc qualitatively reconstruct lower salinities at the end of the Little Ice Age relative to modern day. Temperature changes agree with other records from the Bermuda region. Radiative and atmospheric forcing may explain some of the SST variability, but the scales of implied changes in SST and SSS indicate large-scale ocean circulation impacts as well.
Impacts of temporal CO2 and climate trends on the detection of ocean anthropogenic CO2 accumulation

(American Geophysical Union, 2011-09-21) Goodkin, Nathalie F. ; Levine, Naomi M. ; Doney, Scott C. ; Wanninkhof, Rik

A common approach for estimating the oceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (Canthro) depends on the linear approximation of oceanic dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) from a suite of physical and biological ocean parameters. The extended multiple linear regression (eMLR) method assumes that baseline correlations and the resulting residual fields will remain constant with time even under the influence of secular climate changes. The validity of these assumptions over the 21st century is tested using a coupled carbon-climate model. Findings demonstrate that the influence of both changing climate and changing chemistry beyond 2–4 decades invalidates the assumption that the residual fields will remain constant resulting in significant errors in the eMLR estimate of Canthro. This study determines that the eMLR method is unable to describe Canthro uptake for a sampling interval of greater than 30 years if the error is to remain below 20% for many regions in the Southern Ocean, Atlantic Ocean, and western Pacific Ocean. These results suggest that, for many regions of the ocean basins, hydrographic field investigations have to be repeated at approximately decadal timescales in order to accurately predict the uptake of Canthro by the ocean if the eMLR method is used.
Ocean circulation and biogeochemistry moderate interannual and decadal surface water pH changes in the Sargasso Sea

(John Wiley & Sons, 2015-06-25) Goodkin, Nathalie F. ; Wang, Bo-Shian ; You, Chen-Feng ; Hughen, Konrad A. ; Prouty, Nancy G. ; Bates, Nicholas R. ; Doney, Scott C.

The oceans absorb anthropogenic CO2 from the atmosphere, lowering surface ocean pH, a concern for calcifying marine organisms. The impact of ocean acidification is challenging to predict as each species appears to respond differently and because our knowledge of natural changes to ocean pH is limited in both time and space. Here we reconstruct 222 years of biennial seawater pH variability in the Sargasso Sea from a brain coral, Diploria labyrinthiformis. Using hydrographic data from the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study and the coral-derived pH record, we are able to differentiate pH changes due to surface temperature versus those from ocean circulation and biogeochemical changes. We find that ocean pH does not simply reflect atmospheric CO2 trends but rather that circulation/biogeochemical changes account for >90% of pH variability in the Sargasso Sea and more variability in the last century than would be predicted from anthropogenic uptake of CO2 alone.
Two centuries of limited variability in subtropical North Atlantic thermocline ventilation

(Nature Publishing Group, 2012-05-01) Goodkin, Nathalie F. ; Druffel, Ellen R. M. ; Hughen, Konrad A. ; Doney, Scott C.

Ventilation and mixing of oceanic gyres is important to ocean-atmosphere heat and gas transfer, and to mid-latitude nutrient supply. The rates of mode water formation are believed to impact climate and carbon exchange between the surface and mid-depth water over decadal periods. Here, a record of 14C/12C (1780–1940), which is a proxy for vertical ocean mixing, from an annually banded coral from Bermuda, shows limited inter-annual variability and a substantial Suess Effect (the decrease in 14C/12C since 1900). The Sargasso Sea mixing rates between the surface and thermocline varied minimally over the past two centuries, despite changes to mean-hemispheric climate, including the Little Ice Age and variability in the North Atlantic Oscillation. This result indicates that regional formation rates of sub-tropical mode water are stable over decades, and that anthropogenic carbon absorbed by the ocean does not return to the surface at a variable rate.
Record of Little Ice Age sea surface temperatures at Bermuda using a growth-dependent calibration of coral Sr/Ca

(American Geophysical Union, 2005-11-30) Goodkin, Nathalie F. ; Hughen, Konrad A. ; Cohen, Anne L. ; Smith, Struan R.

Strontium to calcium ratios (Sr/Ca) are reported for a massive brain coral Diploria labyrinthiformis collected from the south shore of Bermuda and are strongly correlated with both sea surface temperature (SST) and mean annual skeletal growth rate. High Sr/Ca ratios correspond with cold SSTs and slow skeletal growth rate and vice versa. We provide a quantitative calibration of Sr/Ca to extension rate and SST along the axis of maximum growth and derive a growth-dependent Sr/Ca–SST calibration equation to reconstruct western subtropical North Atlantic SSTs for the past 223 years. When the influence of growth rate is excluded from the calibration, Sr/Ca ratios yield SSTs that are too cold during cool anomalies and too warm during warm anomalies. Toward the end of the Little Ice Age (∼1850), SST changes derived using a calibration that is not growth-dependent are exaggerated by a factor of 2 relative to those from the growth-corrected model that yields SSTs ∼1.5°C cooler than today. Our results indicate that incorporation of growth rate effects into coral Sr/Ca calibrations may improve the accuracy of SSTs derived from living and fossil corals.
Coral-based proxy calibrations constrain ENSO-driven sea surface temperature and salinity gradients in the Western Pacific Warm Pool

(Elsevier, 2020-10-01) Mohtar, Ahmad T. ; Hughen, Konrad A. ; Goodkin, Nathalie F. ; Streanga, Iulia-Madalina ; Ramos, Riovie ; Samanta, Dhrubajyoti ; Cervino, James M. ; Switzer, Adam D.

Constraining past variability in ocean conditions in the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) and examining how it has been influenced by the El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is critical to predicting how these systems may change in the future. To characterize the spatiotemporal variability of the WPWP and ENSO during the past three decades, we analyzed climate proxies using coral cores sampled from Porites spp. from Kosrae Island (KOS) and Woleai Atoll (WOL) in the Federated States of Micronesia. Coral skeleton samples drilled along the major growth axis were analyzed for oxygen isotopes (δ18Oc) and trace element ratios (Sr/Ca), used to reconstruct sea surface salinity and temperature (SSS and SST). Pseudocoral δ18O time series (δ18Opseudo) were calculated from gridded instrumental observations and compared to δ18Oc, followed by fine-tuning using coral Sr/Ca and gridded SST, to produce age models for each coral. The thermal component of δ18Oc was removed using Sr/Ca for SST, to derive δ18O of seawater (δ18Osw), a proxy for SSS. The Sr/Ca, and δ18Osw records were compared to instrumental SST and SSS to test their fidelity as regional climate recorders. We found both sites display significant Sr/Ca-SST calibrations at monthly and interannual (dry season, wet season, mean annual) timescales. At each site, δ18Osw also exhibited significant calibrations to SSS across the same timescales. The difference between normalized dry season SST (Sr/Ca) anomalies from KOS and WOL generates a zonal SST gradient (KOSWOLSST), capturing the east-west WPWP migration observed during ENSO events. Similarly, the average of normalized dry season δ18Osw anomalies from both sites produces an SSS index (KOSWOLSSS) reflecting the regional hydrological changes. Both proxy indices, KOSWOLSST and KOSWOLSSS, are significantly correlated to regional ENSO indices. These calibration results highlight the potential for extending the climate record, revealing spatial hydrological gradients within the WPWP and ENSO variability back to the end of the Little Ice Age.
Diploastrea heliopora Sr/Ca and δ18O records from northeast Luzon, Philippines : an assessment of interspecies coral proxy calibrations and climate controls of sea surface temperature and salinity

(John Wiley & Sons, 2017-04-30) Ramos, Riovie ; Goodkin, Nathalie F. ; Siringan, Fernando P. ; Hughen, Konrad A.

The Indo-Pacific coral Diploastrea heliopora reveals regional multidecadal- to centennial- scale climate variability using coral carbonate δ18O (δ18Oc) as a combined proxy for sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface salinity (SSS). However, to assess the coral's full potential in resolving climatic events, an independent SST proxy would be more advantageous. We examined both Sr/Ca and δ18O of Diploastrea against an adjacent Porites lobata core collected from northeast Luzon, Philippines. Winter Sr/Ca data from Diploastrea show a significant correlation to SST (r = −0.41, p < 0.05, (root-mean-square of the residual) RMSR = 0.81°C) and provide a proxy with similar sensitivity as Porites (r = −0.57, p < 0.05, RMSR = 0.62°C). An interspecies SST record is shown to be robust and used for a reconstruction of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation during boreal winter (r = −0.70, p = 0.02). While we were unable to generate a robust Diploastrea δ18O-SSS calibration at interannual timescale, the freshening trend toward the present, commonly observed in the region, is qualitatively captured in Diploastrea δ18O. Comparison with Porites δ18O and instrumental SSS records shows that the magnitude of freshening is consistent between coral species. Wet and dry season Porites δ18O provide support for the relative influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation events and local precipitation to SSS variability at our site. The multiproxy, multispecies approach of this study further strengthens the evidence for Diploastrea as an alternate climate archive in the Indo-Pacific region and seals its potential in helping resolve less understood global-scale climate phenomena.
Coral records of temperature and salinity in the tropical western Pacific reveal influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation since the late nineteenth century

(American Geophysical Union, 2019-08-05) Ramos, Riovie ; Goodkin, Nathalie F. ; Siringan, Fernando P. ; Hughen, Konrad A.

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a complex aggregate of different atmospheric and oceanographic forcings spanning the extratropical and tropical Pacific. The PDO has widespread climatic and societal impacts, thus understanding the processes contributing to PDO variability is critical. Distinguishing PDO‐related variability is particularly challenging in the tropical Pacific due to the dominance of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and influence of anthropogenic warming signals. Century‐long western Pacific records of subannual sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface salinity (SSS), derived from coral Sr/Ca and δ18O profiles, respectively, allow for evaluating different climatic sensitivities and identifying PDO‐related variability in the region. The summer Sr/Ca‐SST record provides evidence of a significant SST increase, likely tied to greenhouse gas emissions. Anthropogenic warming is masked in the winter Sr/Ca‐SST record by interannual to multidecadal scale changes driven by the East‐Asian Winter Monsoon and the PDO. Decadal climate variability during winter is strongly correlated to the PDO, in agreement with other PDO records in the region. The PDO also exerts influence on the SSS difference between the dry and wet season coral δ18O (δ18Oc)‐SSS records through water advection. The PDO and El Niño–Southern Oscillation constructively combine to enhance/reduce advection of saline Kuroshio waters at our site. Overall, we are able to demonstrate that climate records from a tropical reef environment significantly capture PDO variability and related changes over the period of a century. This implies that the tropical western Pacific is a key site in understanding multifrequency climate variability, including its impact on tropical climate at longer timescales.
Natural and anthropogenic forcing of multi-decadal to centennial scale variability of sea surface temperature in the South China Sea

(American Geophysical Union, 2021-09-23) Goodkin, Nathalie F. ; Samanta, Dhrubajyoti ; Bolton, Annette ; Ong, Maria Rosabelle ; Phan, Kim Hoang ; Vo, Si Tuan ; Karnauskas, Kristopher B. ; Hughen, Konrad A.

Four hundred years of reconstructed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from a coral located off the coast of Vietnam show significant multi-decadal to centennial-scale variability in wet and dry seasons. Wet and dry season SST co-vary significantly at multi-decadal timescales, and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) explains the majority of variability in both seasons. A newly reconstructed wet season IPO index was compared to other IPO reconstructions, showing significant long-term agreement with varying amplitude of negative IPO signals based on geographic location. Dry season SST also correlates to sea level pressure anomalies and the East Asian Winter Monsoon, although with an inverse relationship from established interannual behavior, as previously seen with an ocean circulation proxy from the same coral. Centennial-scale variability in wet and dry season SST shows 300 years of near simultaneous changes, with an abrupt decoupling of the records around 1900, after which the dry season continues a long-term cooling trend while the wet season remains almost constant. Climate model simulations indicate greenhouse gases as the largest contributor to the decoupling of the wet and dry season SSTs and demonstrate increased heat advection to the western South China Sea in the wet season, potentially disrupting the covariance in seasonal SST.
Enhanced monsoon-driven upwelling in Southeast Asia during the Little Ice Age

(American Geophysical Union, 2023-04-08) Chen, Mengli ; Martin, Patrick ; Ren, Haojia ; Zhang, Run ; Samanta, Dhrubajyoti ; Chen, Yi-Chi ; Hughen, Konrad A. ; Phan, Kim Hoang ; Vo, Si Tuan ; Goodkin, Nathalie F.

Climate change impacts ocean nutrient availability and will likely alter the marine food web. While climate models predict decreased average ocean productivity, the extent of these changes, especially in the marginal seas upon which large human populations depend, is not well understood. Here, we reconstructed changes in seawater phosphate concentration and nitrate source over the past 400 years, which reveals a more than 50% decline in residence time of seawater phosphate, and 8%?48% decline in subsurface nitrogen supply following the coldest period of Little Ice Age. Our data indicates a link between surface ocean nutrient supply and the East Asian Summer Monsoon strength in an economically important marginal sea. As climate models predict that the East Asian Summer monsoon will strengthen in the future, our study implies that surface ocean primary productivity may increase in the South China Sea, contrary to the predicted decrease in global average ocean productivity.
Colpophyllia natans From Tobago, a Novel Paleoclimate Archive for Reconstructing Sea Surface Temperature in the Tropical Atlantic

(American Geophysical Union, 2022-12-10) Ong, Maria Rosabelle ; Goodkin, Nathalie F. ; Guppy, Reia ; Hughen, Konrad A.

Massive, long-lived Siderastrea and Diploria corals are species commonly used for sea surface temperature (SST) reconstructions in the North Atlantic. However, they are rarely found to exceed 200 years in age. Thus, it is imperative to continuously develop alternative taxa for paleoreconstructions. Colpophyllia natans, a highly populous tropical North Atlantic coral, are known to grow large colonies, potentially containing environmental records spanning several hundreds of years. However, its low density and complicated architecture poses a challenge in extracting climate signals from this coral. This study presents the first monthly-resolved climate calibration of Colpophyllia natans and validates its utility as a new paleoarchive, relative to Siderastrea siderea. Linear regressions of monthly and interannual coral Sr/Ca with instrumental SST reveal robust, significant relationships (p < 0.05), indicating that microsampling along a single thecal wall of C. natans allowed for robust climate reconstructions. Additionally, both corals capture similar SST variations (t-test, p ≥ 0.05), which allowed for the generation of a single, composite interspecies SST record that correlates with instrumental SST even more strongly (p < 0.0001) than the individual corals. Mean annual and boreal summer interspecies SST correlate significantly with North Atlantic SST indices (p < 0.05), demonstrating the ability to capture regional, long-term SST trends in the North Atlantic. Spatial correlation maps of boreal winter interspecies SST to instrumental SST and geopotential height anomalies reveal coherent spatial patterns linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation. Our findings suggest that Colpophyllia natans has enormous potential as a new paleoclimate archive for reconstructing temporal and spatial SST variability in the tropical Atlantic.

Goodkin Nathalie F.

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