Cael B. Barry

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Cael

First Name

B. Barry

ORCID

0000-0003-1317-5718

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Simplified model of spectral absorption by non-algal particles and dissolved organic materials in aquatic environments

(Optical Society of America, 2017-10-06) Cael, B. Barry ; Boss, Emmanuel S.

Absorption by non-algal particles (NAP, ad) and colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM, ag) are frequently modeled by exponential functions of wavelength, either separately or as a sum. We present a new representation of NAP-plus-CDOM absorption adg based on the stretched exponential function adg(λ) = A exp{−[s(λ − λo)]β}, whose parameter β can be considered a measure of optical heterogeneity. A double exponential representation of adg can be fit extremely well by a stretched exponential for all plausible parameter combinations, despite having one fewer free parameter than a double exponential. Fitting two published compilations of in situ adg data – one at low spectral resolution (n = 5, λ = 412–555 nm) and one at high spectral resolution (n = 201, λ = 300–700 nm) – the stretched exponential outperforms the single exponential, double exponential, and a power law. We thereby conclude that the stretched exponential is the preferred model for adg absorption in circumstances when NAP and CDOM cannot be separated, such as in remote sensing inversions.
Microbial ecosystem responses to alkalinity enhancement in the North Atlantic Subtropical Gyre

(Frontiers Media, 2022-07-25) Subhas, Adam V. ; Marx, Lukas ; Reynolds, Sarah ; Flohr, Anita ; Mawji, Edward ; Brown, Peter J. ; Cael, B. Barry

In addition to reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, actively removing CO2 from the atmosphere is widely considered necessary to keep global warming well below 2°C. Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement (OAE) describes a suite of such CO2 removal processes that all involve enhancing the buffering capacity of seawater. In theory, OAE both stores carbon and offsets ocean acidification. In practice, the response of the marine biogeochemical system to OAE must be demonstrably negligible, or at least manageable, before it can be deployed at scale. We tested the OAE response of two natural seawater mixed layer microbial communities in the North Atlantic Subtropical Gyre, one at the Western gyre boundary, and one in the middle of the gyre. We conducted 4-day microcosm incubation experiments at sea, spiked with three increasing amounts of alkaline sodium salts and a 13C-bicarbonate tracer at constant pCO2. We then measured a suite of dissolved and particulate parameters to constrain the chemical and biological response to these additions. Microbial communities demonstrated occasionally measurable, but mostly negligible, responses to alkalinity enhancement. Neither site showed a significant increase in biologically produced CaCO3, even at extreme alkalinity loadings of +2,000 μmol kg−1. At the gyre boundary, alkalinity enhancement did not significantly impact net primary production rates. In contrast, net primary production in the central gyre decreased by ~30% in response to alkalinity enhancement. The central gyre incubations demonstrated a shift toward smaller particle size classes, suggesting that OAE may impact community composition and/or aggregation/disaggregation processes. In terms of chemical effects, we identify equilibration of seawater pCO2, inorganic CaCO3 precipitation, and immediate effects during mixing of alkaline solutions with seawater, as important considerations for developing experimental OAE methodologies, and for practical OAE deployment. These initial results underscore the importance of performing more studies of OAE in diverse marine environments, and the need to investigate the coupling between OAE, inorganic processes, and microbial community composition.
The good, the bad, and the tiny : a simple, mechanistic-probabilistic model of virus-nutrient colimitation in microbes

(Public Library of Science, 2015-11-23) Cael, B. Barry

For phytoplankton and other microbes, nutrient receptors are often the passages through which viruses invade. This presents a bottom-up vs. top-down, co-limitation scenario; how do these would-be-hosts balance minimizing viral susceptibility with maximizing uptake of limiting nutrient(s)? This question has been addressed in the biological literature on evolutionary timescales for populations, but a shorter timescale, mechanistic perspective is lacking, and marine viral literature suggests the strong influence of additional factors, e.g. host size; while the literature on both nutrient uptake and host-virus interactions is expansive, their intersection, of ubiquitous relevance to marine environments, is understudied. I present a simple, mechanistic model from first principles to analyze the effect of this co-limitation scenario on individual growth, which suggests that in environments with high risk of viral invasion or spatial/temporal heterogeneity, an individual host’s growth rate may be optimized with respect to receptor coverage, producing top-down selective pressure on short timescales. The model has general applicability, is suggestive of hypotheses for empirical exploration, and can be extended to theoretical studies of more complex behaviors and systems.
Marine virus-like particles and microbes : a linear interpretation

(Frontiers Media, 2018-03-01) Cael, B. Barry ; Carlson, Michael C. G. ; Follett, Christopher L. ; Follows, Michael J.

Viruses are key players in ocean ecology and biogeochemistry, not only because of their functional roles but also partially due to their sheer abundance (Fuhrman, 1999; Wilhelm and Suttle, 1999). Because viruses cannot replicate without their hosts' machinery, their abundance is inextricably related to that of their (mostly microbial) hosts. The relationship between viral and microbial abundances is thus of great interest.
The size-distribution of Earth’s lakes

(Nature Publishing Group, 2016-07-08) Cael, B. Barry ; Seekell, David A.

Globally, there are millions of small lakes, but a small number of large lakes. Most key ecosystem patterns and processes scale with lake size, thus this asymmetry between area and abundance is a fundamental constraint on broad-scale patterns in lake ecology. Nonetheless, descriptions of lake size-distributions are scarce and empirical distributions are rarely evaluated relative to theoretical predictions. Here we develop expectations for Earth’s lake area-distribution based on percolation theory and evaluate these expectations with data from a global lake census. Lake surface areas ≥8.5 km2 are power-law distributed with a tail exponent (τ = 1.97) and fractal dimension (d = 1.38), similar to theoretical expectations (τ = 2.05; d = 4/3). Lakes <8.5 km2 are not power-law distributed. An independently developed regional lake census exhibits a similar transition and consistency with theoretical predictions. Small lakes deviate from the power-law distribution because smaller lakes are more susceptible to dynamical change and topographic behavior at sub-kilometer scales is not self-similar. Our results provide a robust characterization and theoretical explanation for the lake size-abundance relationship, and form a fundamental basis for understanding and predicting patterns in lake ecology at broad scales.
Open ocean particle flux variability from surface to seafloor

(American Geophysical Union, 2021-04-18) Cael, B. Barry ; Bisson, Kelsey ; Conte, Maureen H. ; Duret, Manon T. ; Follett, Christopher L. ; Henson, Stephanie A. ; Honda, Makio C. ; Iversen, Morten H. ; Karl, David M. ; Lampitt, Richard S. ; Mouw, Colleen B. ; Muller-Karger, Frank E. ; Pebody, Corinne ; Smith, Kenneth L., Jr. ; Talmy, David

The sinking of carbon fixed via net primary production (NPP) into the ocean interior is an important part of marine biogeochemical cycles. NPP measurements follow a log-normal probability distribution, meaning NPP variations can be simply described by two parameters despite NPP's complexity. By analyzing a global database of open ocean particle fluxes, we show that this log-normal probability distribution propagates into the variations of near-seafloor fluxes of particulate organic carbon (POC), calcium carbonate, and opal. Deep-sea particle fluxes at subtropical and temperate time-series sites follow the same log-normal probability distribution, strongly suggesting the log-normal description is robust and applies on multiple scales. This log-normality implies that 29% of the highest measurements are responsible for 71% of the total near-seafloor POC flux. We discuss possible causes for the dampening of variability from NPP to deep-sea POC flux, and present an updated relationship predicting POC flux from mineral flux and depth.
Pond fractals in a tidal flat

(American Physical Society, 2015-11-19) Cael, B. Barry ; Lambert, Bennett ; Bisson, Kelsey

Studies over the past decade have reported power-law distributions for the areas of terrestrial lakes and Arctic melt ponds, as well as fractal relationships between their areas and coastlines. Here we report similar fractal structure of ponds in a tidal flat, thereby extending the spatial and temporal scales on which such phenomena have been observed in geophysical systems. Images taken during low tide of a tidal flat in Damariscotta, Maine, reveal a well-resolved power-law distribution of pond sizes over three orders of magnitude with a consistent fractal area-perimeter relationship. The data are consistent with the predictions of percolation theory for unscreened perimeters and scale-free cluster size distributions and are robust to alterations of the image processing procedure. The small spatial and temporal scales of these data suggest this easily observable system may serve as a useful model for investigating the evolution of pond geometries, while emphasizing the generality of fractal behavior in geophysical surfaces.
On the temperature dependence of oceanic export efficiency

(John Wiley & Sons, 2016-05-18) Cael, B. Barry ; Follows, Michael J.

Quantifying the fraction of primary production exported from the euphotic layer (termed the export efficiency ef) is a complicated matter. Studies have suggested empirical relationships with temperature which offer attractive potential for parameterization. Here we develop what is arguably the simplest mechanistic model relating the two, using established thermodynamic dependencies for primary production and respiration. It results in a single-parameter curve that constrains the envelope of possible efficiencies, capturing the upper bounds of several ef-T data sets. The approach provides a useful theoretical constraint on this relationship and extracts the variability in ef due to temperature but does not idealize out the remaining variability which evinces the substantial complexity of the system in question.
Particle flux parameterizations: Quantitative and mechanistic similarities and differences

(Frontiers Media, 2018-10-29) Cael, B. Barry ; Bisson, Kelsey

The depth-attenuation of sinking particulate organic carbon (POC) is of particular importance for the ocean's role in the global carbon cycle. Numerous idealized flux-vs.-depth relationships are available to parameterize this process in Earth System Models. Here we show that these relationships are statistically indistinguishable from available POC flux profile data. Despite their quantitative similarity, we also show these relationships have very different implications for the flux leaving the upper ocean, as well as for the mechanisms governing POC flux. We discuss how this tension might be addressed both observationally and in modeling studies.
Can rates of ocean primary production and biological carbon export be related through their probability distributions?

(John Wiley & Sons, 2018-05-08) Cael, B. Barry ; Bisson, Kelsey ; Follett, Christopher L.

We describe the basis of a theory for interpreting measurements of two key biogeochemical fluxes—primary production by phytoplankton (p, μg C · L−1 · day−1) and biological carbon export from the surface ocean by sinking particles (f, mg C · m−2 · day−1)—in terms of their probability distributions. Given that p and f are mechanistically linked but variable and effectively measured on different scales, we hypothesize that a quantitative relationship emerges between collections of the two measurements. Motivated by the many subprocesses driving production and export, we take as a null model that large‐scale distributions of p and f are lognormal. We then show that compilations of p and f measurements are consistent with this hypothesis. The compilation of p measurements is extensive enough to subregion by biome, basin, depth, or season; these subsets are also well described by lognormals, whose log‐moments sort predictably. Informed by the lognormality of both p and f we infer a statistical scaling relationship between the two quantities and derive a linear relationship between the log‐moments of their distributions. We find agreement between two independent estimates of the slope and intercept of this line and show that the distribution of f measurements is consistent with predictions made from the moments of the p distribution. These results illustrate the utility of a distributional approach to biogeochemical fluxes. We close by describing potential uses and challenges for the further development of such an approach.
How data set characteristics influence ocean carbon export models

(John Wiley & Sons, 2018-09-13) Bisson, Kelsey ; Siegel, David A. ; DeVries, Timothy ; Cael, B. Barry ; Buesseler, Ken O.

Ocean biological processes mediate the transport of roughly 10 petagrams of carbon from the surface to the deep ocean each year and thus play an important role in the global carbon cycle. Even so, the globally integrated rate of carbon export out of the surface ocean remains highly uncertain. Quantifying the processes underlying this biological carbon export requires a synthesis between model predictions and available observations of particulate organic carbon (POC) flux; yet the scale dissimilarities between models and observations make this synthesis difficult. Here we compare carbon export predictions from a mechanistic model with observations of POC fluxes from several data sets compiled from the literature spanning different space, time, and depth scales as well as using different observational methodologies. We optimize model parameters to provide the best match between model‐predicted and observed POC fluxes, explicitly accounting for sources of error associated with each data set. Model‐predicted globally integrated values of POC flux at the base of the euphotic layer range from 3.8 to 5.5 Pg C/year, depending on the data set used to optimize the model. Modeled carbon export pathways also vary depending on the data set used to optimize the model, as well as the satellite net primary production data product used to drive the model. These findings highlight the importance of collecting field data that average over the substantial natural temporal and spatial variability in carbon export fluxes, and advancing satellite algorithms for ocean net primary production, in order to improve predictions of biological carbon export.
The volume and mean depth of Earth's lakes

(John Wiley & Sons, 2017-01-13) Cael, B. Barry ; Heathcote, Adam J. ; Seekell, David A.

Global lake volume estimates are scarce, highly variable, and poorly documented. We developed a rigorous method for estimating global lake depth and volume based on the Hurst coefficient of Earth's surface, which provides a mechanistic connection between lake area and volume. Volume-area scaling based on the Hurst coefficient is accurate and consistent when applied to lake data sets spanning diverse regions. We applied these relationships to a global lake area census to estimate global lake volume and depth. The volume of Earth's lakes is 199,000 km3 (95% confidence interval 196,000–202,000 km3). This volume is in the range of historical estimates (166,000–280,000 km3), but the overall mean depth of 41.8 m (95% CI 41.2–42.4 m) is significantly lower than previous estimates (62–151 m). These results highlight and constrain the relative scarcity of lake waters in the hydrosphere and have implications for the role of lakes in global biogeochemical cycles.
The ocean's saltiness and its overturning

(John Wiley & Sons, 2017-02-22) Cael, B. Barry ; Ferrari, Raffaele

Here we explore the relationship between the mean salinity S of the ocean and the strength of its Atlantic and Pacific Meridional Overturning Circulations (AMOC and PMOC). We compare simulations performed with a realistically configured coarse-grained ocean model, spanning a range of mean salinities. We find that the AMOC strength increases approximately linearly with S. In contrast, the PMOC strength declines approximately linearly with inline image until it reaches a small background value similar to the present-day ocean. Well-established scaling laws for the overturning circulation explain both of these dependencies on S
Historical and future maximum sea surface temperatures

(American Association for the Advancement of Science, 2024-01-26) Cael, B. Barry ; Burger, Friedrich A. ; Henson, Stephanie A. ; Britten, Gregory L. ; Frolicher, Thomas L.

Marine heat waves affect ocean ecosystems and are expected to become more frequent and intense. Earth system models’ ability to reproduce extreme ocean temperature statistics has not been tested quantitatively, making the reliability of their future projections of marine heat waves uncertain. We demonstrate that annual maxima of detrended anomalies in daily mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over 39 years of global satellite observations are described excellently by the generalized extreme value distribution. If models can reproduce the observed distribution of SST extremes, this increases confidence in their marine heat wave projections. 14 CMIP6 models' historical realizations reproduce the satellite-based distribution and its parameters’ spatial patterns. We find that maximum ocean temperatures will become warmer (by 1.07° ± 0.17°C under 2°C warming and 2.04° ± 0.18°C under 3.2°C warming). These changes are mainly due to mean SST increases, slightly reinforced by SST seasonality increases. Our study quantifies ocean temperature extremes and gives confidence to model projections of marine heat waves.

Cael B. Barry

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