Henson
Stephanie A.
Henson
Stephanie A.
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ArticleDetection of anthropogenic climate change in satellite records of ocean chlorophyll and productivity(Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union, 2010-02-15) Henson, Stephanie A. ; Sarmiento, Jorge L. ; Dunne, John P. ; Bopp, Laurent ; Lima, Ivan D. ; Doney, Scott C. ; John, Jasmin G. ; Beaulieu, C.Global climate change is predicted to alter the ocean's biological productivity. But how will we recognise the impacts of climate change on ocean productivity? The most comprehensive information available on its global distribution comes from satellite ocean colour data. Now that over ten years of satellite-derived chlorophyll and productivity data have accumulated, can we begin to detect and attribute climate change-driven trends in productivity? Here we compare recent trends in satellite ocean colour data to longer-term time series from three biogeochemical models (GFDL, IPSL and NCAR). We find that detection of climate change-driven trends in the satellite data is confounded by the relatively short time series and large interannual and decadal variability in productivity. Thus, recent observed changes in chlorophyll, primary production and the size of the oligotrophic gyres cannot be unequivocally attributed to the impact of global climate change. Instead, our analyses suggest that a time series of ~40 years length is needed to distinguish a global warming trend from natural variability. In some regions, notably equatorial regions, detection times are predicted to be shorter (~20–30 years). Analysis of modelled chlorophyll and primary production from 2001–2100 suggests that, on average, the climate change-driven trend will not be unambiguously separable from decadal variability until ~2055. Because the magnitude of natural variability in chlorophyll and primary production is larger than, or similar to, the global warming trend, a consistent, decades-long data record must be established if the impact of climate change on ocean productivity is to be definitively detected.
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ArticleFactors challenging our ability to detect long-term trends in ocean chlorophyll(Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union, 2013-04-23) Beaulieu, C. ; Henson, Stephanie A. ; Sarmiento, Jorge L. ; Dunne, John P. ; Doney, Scott C. ; Rykaczewski, Ryan R. ; Bopp, LaurentGlobal climate change is expected to affect the ocean's biological productivity. The most comprehensive information available about the global distribution of contemporary ocean primary productivity is derived from satellite data. Large spatial patchiness and interannual to multidecadal variability in chlorophyll a concentration challenges efforts to distinguish a global, secular trend given satellite records which are limited in duration and continuity. The longest ocean color satellite record comes from the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS), which failed in December 2010. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) ocean color sensors are beyond their originally planned operational lifetime. Successful retrieval of a quality signal from the current Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instrument, or successful launch of the Ocean and Land Colour Instrument (OLCI) expected in 2014 will hopefully extend the ocean color time series and increase the potential for detecting trends in ocean productivity in the future. Alternatively, a potential discontinuity in the time series of ocean chlorophyll a, introduced by a change of instrument without overlap and opportunity for cross-calibration, would make trend detection even more challenging. In this paper, we demonstrate that there are a few regions with statistically significant trends over the ten years of SeaWiFS data, but at a global scale the trend is not large enough to be distinguished from noise. We quantify the degree to which red noise (autocorrelation) especially challenges trend detection in these observational time series. We further demonstrate how discontinuities in the time series at various points would affect our ability to detect trends in ocean chlorophyll a. We highlight the importance of maintaining continuous, climate-quality satellite data records for climate-change detection and attribution studies.
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ArticleOpen ocean particle flux variability from surface to seafloor(American Geophysical Union, 2021-04-18) Cael, B. Barry ; Bisson, Kelsey ; Conte, Maureen H. ; Duret, Manon T. ; Follett, Christopher L. ; Henson, Stephanie A. ; Honda, Makio C. ; Iversen, Morten H. ; Karl, David M. ; Lampitt, Richard S. ; Mouw, Colleen B. ; Muller-Karger, Frank E. ; Pebody, Corinne ; Smith, Kenneth L., Jr. ; Talmy, DavidThe sinking of carbon fixed via net primary production (NPP) into the ocean interior is an important part of marine biogeochemical cycles. NPP measurements follow a log-normal probability distribution, meaning NPP variations can be simply described by two parameters despite NPP's complexity. By analyzing a global database of open ocean particle fluxes, we show that this log-normal probability distribution propagates into the variations of near-seafloor fluxes of particulate organic carbon (POC), calcium carbonate, and opal. Deep-sea particle fluxes at subtropical and temperate time-series sites follow the same log-normal probability distribution, strongly suggesting the log-normal description is robust and applies on multiple scales. This log-normality implies that 29% of the highest measurements are responsible for 71% of the total near-seafloor POC flux. We discuss possible causes for the dampening of variability from NPP to deep-sea POC flux, and present an updated relationship predicting POC flux from mineral flux and depth.
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ArticleOcean time series observations of changing marine ecosystems: An era of integration, synthesis, and societal applications(Frontiers Media, 2019-07-12) Benway, Heather M. ; Lorenzoni, Laura ; White, Angelicque E. ; Fiedler, Björn ; Levine, Naomi M. ; Nicholson, David P. ; DeGrandpre, Michael D. ; Sosik, Heidi M. ; Church, Matthew J. ; O'Brien, Todd D. ; Leinen, Margaret S. ; Weller, Robert A. ; Karl, David M. ; Henson, Stephanie A. ; Letelier, Ricardo M.Sustained ocean time series are critical for characterizing marine ecosystem shifts in a time of accelerating, and at times unpredictable, changes. They represent the only means to distinguish between natural and anthropogenic forcings, and are the best tools to explore causal links and implications for human communities that depend on ocean resources. Since the inception of sustained ocean observations, ocean time series have withstood many challenges, most prominently availability of uninterrupted funding and retention of trained personnel. This OceanObs’19 review article provides an overarching vision for sustained ocean time series observations for the next decade, focusing on the growing challenges of maintaining sustained ocean time series, including ship-based and autonomous coastal and open-ocean platforms, as well as remote sensing. In addition to increased diversification of funding sources to include the private sector, NGOs, and other groups, more effective engagement of stakeholders and other end-users will be critical to ensure the sustainability of ocean time series programs. Building a cohesive international time series network will require dedicated capacity to coordinate across observing programs and leverage existing infrastructure and platforms of opportunity. This review article outlines near-term observing priorities and technology needs; explores potential mechanisms to broaden ocean time series data applications and end-user communities; and describes current tools and future requirements for managing increasingly complex multi-platform data streams and developing synthesis products that support science and society. The actionable recommendations outlined herein ultimately form the basis for a robust, sustainable, fit-for-purpose time series network that will foster a predictive understanding of changing ocean systems for the benefit of society.
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ArticleA reduced estimate of the strength of the ocean's biological carbon pump(American Geophysical Union, 2011-02-18) Henson, Stephanie A. ; Sanders, Richard J. ; Madsen, Esben ; Morris, Paul J. ; Le Moigne, Frederic A. C. ; Quartly, Graham D.A major term in the global carbon cycle is the ocean's biological carbon pump which is dominated by sinking of small organic particles from the surface ocean to its interior. Several different approaches to estimating the magnitude of the pump have been used, yielding a large range of estimates. Here, we use an alternative methodology, a thorium isotope tracer, that provides direct estimates of particulate organic carbon export. A large database of thorium-derived export measurements was compiled and extrapolated to the global scale by correlation with satellite sea surface temperature fields. Our estimates of export efficiency are significantly lower than those derived from the f-ratio, and we estimate global integrated carbon export as ∼5 GtC yr−1, lower than most current estimates. The lack of consensus amongst different methodologies on the strength of the biological carbon pump emphasises that our knowledge of a major planetary carbon flux remains incomplete.
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ArticleMagnitude, trends, and variability of the global ocean carbon sink from 1985‐2018(American Geophysical Union, 2023-09-11) DeVries, Tim ; Yamamoto, Kana ; Wanninkhof, Rik ; Gruber, Nicolas ; Hauck, Judith ; Muller, Jens Daniel ; Bopp, Laurent ; Carroll, Dustin ; Carter, Brendan ; Chau, Thi-Tuyet-Trang ; Doney, Scott C. ; Gehlen, Marion ; Gloege, Lucas ; Gregor, Luke ; Henson, Stephanie A. ; Kim, Ji-Hyun ; Iida, Yosuke ; Ilyina, Tatiana ; Landschutzer, Peter ; Le Quere, Corinne ; Munro, David R. ; Nissen, Cara ; Patara, Lavinia ; Perez, Fiz F. ; Resplandy, Laure ; Rodgers, Keith B. ; Schwinger, Jorg ; Seferian, Roland ; Sicardi, Valentina ; Terhaar, Jens ; Trinanes, Joaquin ; Tsujino, Hiroyuki ; Watson, Andrew J. ; Yasunaka, Sayaka ; Zeng, JiyeThis contribution to the RECCAP2 (REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes) assessment analyzes the processes that determine the global ocean carbon sink, and its trends and variability over the period 1985–2018, using a combination of models and observation-based products. The mean sea-air CO2 flux from 1985 to 2018 is −1.6 ± 0.2 PgC yr−1 based on an ensemble of reconstructions of the history of sea surface pCO2 (pCO2 products). Models indicate that the dominant component of this flux is the net oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2, which is estimated at −2.1 ± 0.3 PgC yr−1 by an ensemble of ocean biogeochemical models, and −2.4 ± 0.1 PgC yr−1 by two ocean circulation inverse models. The ocean also degasses about 0.65 ± 0.3 PgC yr−1 of terrestrially derived CO2, but this process is not fully resolved by any of the models used here. From 2001 to 2018, the pCO2 products reconstruct a trend in the ocean carbon sink of −0.61 ± 0.12 PgC yr−1 decade−1, while biogeochemical models and inverse models diagnose an anthropogenic CO2-driven trend of −0.34 ± 0.06 and −0.41 ± 0.03 PgC yr−1 decade−1, respectively. This implies a climate-forced acceleration of the ocean carbon sink in recent decades, but there are still large uncertainties on the magnitude and cause of this trend. The interannual to decadal variability of the global carbon sink is mainly driven by climate variability, with the climate-driven variability exceeding the CO2-forced variability by 2–3 times. These results suggest that anthropogenic CO2 dominates the ocean CO2 sink, while climate-driven variability is potentially large but highly uncertain and not consistently captured across different methods.
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ArticleOceanGliders: A component of the integrated GOOS(Frontiers Media, 2019-10-02) Testor, Pierre ; de Young, Brad ; Rudnick, Daniel L. ; Glenn, Scott ; Hayes, Daniel J. ; Lee, Craig M. ; Pattiaratchi, Charitha ; Hill, Katherine Louise ; Heslop, Emma ; Turpin, Victor ; Alenius, Pekka ; Barrera, Carlos ; Barth, John A. ; Beaird, Nicholas ; Bécu, Guislain ; Bosse, Anthony ; Bourrin, François ; Brearley, J. Alexander ; Chao, Yi ; Chen, Sue ; Chiggiato, Jacopo ; Coppola, Laurent ; Crout, Richard ; Cummings, James A. ; Curry, Beth ; Curry, Ruth G. ; Davis, Richard F. ; Desai, Kruti ; DiMarco, Steven F. ; Edwards, Catherine ; Fielding, Sophie ; Fer, Ilker ; Frajka-Williams, Eleanor ; Gildor, Hezi ; Goni, Gustavo J. ; Gutierrez, Dimitri ; Haugan, Peter M. ; Hebert, David ; Heiderich, Joleen ; Henson, Stephanie A. ; Heywood, Karen J. ; Hogan, Patrick ; Houpert, Loïc ; Huh, Sik ; Inall, Mark E. ; Ishii, Masao ; Ito, Shin-ichi ; Itoh, Sachihiko ; Jan, Sen ; Kaiser, Jan ; Karstensen, Johannes ; Kirkpatrick, Barbara ; Klymak, Jody M. ; Kohut, Josh ; Krahmann, Gerd ; Krug, Marjolaine ; McClatchie, Sam ; Marin, Frédéric ; Mauri, Elena ; Mehra, Avichal ; Meredith, Michael P. ; Meunier, Thomas ; Miles, Travis ; Morell, Julio M. ; Mortier, Laurent ; Nicholson, Sarah ; O'Callaghan, Joanne ; O'Conchubhair, Diarmuid ; Oke, Peter ; Pallás-Sanz, Enric ; Palmer, Matthew D. ; Park, Jong Jin ; Perivoliotis, Leonidas ; Poulain, Pierre Marie ; Perry, Ruth ; Queste, Bastien ; Rainville, Luc ; Rehm, Eric ; Roughan, Moninya ; Rome, Nicholas ; Ross, Tetjana ; Ruiz, Simon ; Saba, Grace ; Schaeffer, Amandine ; Schönau, Martha ; Schroeder, Katrin ; Shimizu, Yugo ; Sloyan, Bernadette M. ; Smeed, David A. ; Snowden, Derrick ; Song, Yumi ; Swart, Sebastiaan ; Tenreiro, Miguel ; Thompson, Andrew ; Tintore, Joaquin ; Todd, Robert E. ; Toro, Cesar ; Venables, Hugh J. ; Wagawa, Taku ; Waterman, Stephanie N. ; Watlington, Roy A. ; Wilson, DougThe OceanGliders program started in 2016 to support active coordination and enhancement of global glider activity. OceanGliders contributes to the international efforts of the Global Ocean Observation System (GOOS) for Climate, Ocean Health, and Operational Services. It brings together marine scientists and engineers operating gliders around the world: (1) to observe the long-term physical, biogeochemical, and biological ocean processes and phenomena that are relevant for societal applications; and, (2) to contribute to the GOOS through real-time and delayed mode data dissemination. The OceanGliders program is distributed across national and regional observing systems and significantly contributes to integrated, multi-scale and multi-platform sampling strategies. OceanGliders shares best practices, requirements, and scientific knowledge needed for glider operations, data collection and analysis. It also monitors global glider activity and supports the dissemination of glider data through regional and global databases, in real-time and delayed modes, facilitating data access to the wider community. OceanGliders currently supports national, regional and global initiatives to maintain and expand the capabilities and application of gliders to meet key global challenges such as improved measurement of ocean boundary currents, water transformation and storm forecast.
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ArticleHistorical and future maximum sea surface temperatures(American Association for the Advancement of Science, 2024-01-26) Cael, B. Barry ; Burger, Friedrich A. ; Henson, Stephanie A. ; Britten, Gregory L. ; Frolicher, Thomas L.Marine heat waves affect ocean ecosystems and are expected to become more frequent and intense. Earth system models’ ability to reproduce extreme ocean temperature statistics has not been tested quantitatively, making the reliability of their future projections of marine heat waves uncertain. We demonstrate that annual maxima of detrended anomalies in daily mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over 39 years of global satellite observations are described excellently by the generalized extreme value distribution. If models can reproduce the observed distribution of SST extremes, this increases confidence in their marine heat wave projections. 14 CMIP6 models' historical realizations reproduce the satellite-based distribution and its parameters’ spatial patterns. We find that maximum ocean temperatures will become warmer (by 1.07° ± 0.17°C under 2°C warming and 2.04° ± 0.18°C under 3.2°C warming). These changes are mainly due to mean SST increases, slightly reinforced by SST seasonality increases. Our study quantifies ocean temperature extremes and gives confidence to model projections of marine heat waves.