Paltsev Sergey

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Paltsev
First Name
Sergey
ORCID
0000-0003-3287-0732

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  • Article
    Probabilistic forecast for twenty-first-century climate based on uncertainties in emissions (without policy) and climate parameters
    (American Meteorological Society, 2009-10-01) Sokolov, Andrei P. ; Stone, P. H. ; Forest, C. E. ; Prinn, Ronald G. ; Sarofim, Marcus C. ; Webster, M. ; Paltsev, Sergey ; Schlosser, C. Adam ; Kicklighter, David W. ; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie ; Reilly, John M. ; Wang, C. ; Felzer, Benjamin S. ; Melillo, Jerry M. ; Jacoby, Henry D.
    The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model is used to make probabilistic projections of climate change from 1861 to 2100. Since the model’s first projections were published in 2003, substantial improvements have been made to the model, and improved estimates of the probability distributions of uncertain input parameters have become available. The new projections are considerably warmer than the 2003 projections; for example, the median surface warming in 2091–2100 is 5.1°C compared to 2.4°C in the earlier study. Many changes contribute to the stronger warming; among the more important ones are taking into account the cooling in the second half of the twentieth century due to volcanic eruptions for input parameter estimation and a more sophisticated method for projecting gross domestic product (GDP) growth, which eliminated many low-emission scenarios. However, if recently published data, suggesting stronger twentieth-century ocean warming, are used to determine the input climate parameters, the median projected warming at the end of the twenty-first century is only 4.1°C. Nevertheless, all ensembles of the simulations discussed here produce a much smaller probability of warming less than 2.4°C than implied by the lower bound of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) projected likely range for the A1FI scenario, which has forcing very similar to the median projection in this study. The probability distribution for the surface warming produced by this analysis is more symmetric than the distribution assumed by the IPCC because of a different feedback between the climate and the carbon cycle, resulting from the inclusion in this model of the carbon–nitrogen interaction in the terrestrial ecosystem.
  • Article
    Potential influence of climate-induced vegetation shifts on future land use and associated land carbon fluxes in Northern Eurasia
    (IOP Publishing, 2014-03-21) Kicklighter, David W. ; Cai, Y. ; Zhuang, Qianlai ; Parfenova, E. I. ; Paltsev, Sergey ; Sokolov, Andrei P. ; Melillo, Jerry M. ; Reilly, John M. ; Tchebakova, Nadja M. ; Lu, X.
    Climate change will alter ecosystem metabolism and may lead to a redistribution of vegetation and changes in fire regimes in Northern Eurasia over the 21st century. Land management decisions will interact with these climate-driven changes to reshape the region's landscape. Here we present an assessment of the potential consequences of climate change on land use and associated land carbon sink activity for Northern Eurasia in the context of climate-induced vegetation shifts. Under a 'business-as-usual' scenario, climate-induced vegetation shifts allow expansion of areas devoted to food crop production (15%) and pastures (39%) over the 21st century. Under a climate stabilization scenario, climate-induced vegetation shifts permit expansion of areas devoted to cellulosic biofuel production (25%) and pastures (21%), but reduce the expansion of areas devoted to food crop production by 10%. In both climate scenarios, vegetation shifts further reduce the areas devoted to timber production by 6–8% over this same time period. Fire associated with climate-induced vegetation shifts causes the region to become more of a carbon source than if no vegetation shifts occur. Consideration of the interactions between climate-induced vegetation shifts and human activities through a modeling framework has provided clues to how humans may be able to adapt to a changing world and identified the trade-offs, including unintended consequences, associated with proposed climate/energy policies.
  • Article
    Corrigendum
    (American Meteorological Society, 2010-04-15) Sokolov, Andrei P. ; Stone, P. H. ; Forest, C. E. ; Prinn, Ronald G. ; Sarofim, Marcus C. ; Webster, M. ; Paltsev, Sergey ; Schlosser, C. Adam ; Kicklighter, David W. ; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie ; Reilly, John M. ; Wang, C. ; Felzer, Benjamin S. ; Melillo, Jerry M. ; Jacoby, Henry D.
    Corrigendum: Sokolov, A., and Coauthors, 2009: Probabilistic forecast for twenty-first-century climate based on uncertainties in emissions (without policy) and climate parameters. J. Climate, 22, 5175–5204.
  • Article
    A review of and perspectives on global change modeling for Northern Eurasia
    (IOP Science, 2017-08-08) Monier, Erwan ; Kicklighter, David W. ; Sokolov, Andrei P. ; Zhuang, Qianlai ; Sokolik, Irina ; Lawford, Richard ; Kappas, Martin ; Paltsev, Sergey ; Groisman, Pavel Ya
    Northern Eurasia is made up of a complex and diverse set of physical, ecological, climatic and human systems, which provide important ecosystem services including the storage of substantial stocks of carbon in its terrestrial ecosystems. At the same time, the region has experienced dramatic climate change, natural disturbances and changes in land management practices over the past century. For these reasons, Northern Eurasia is both a critical region to understand and a complex system with substantial challenges for the modeling community. This review is designed to highlight the state of past and ongoing efforts of the research community to understand and model these environmental, socioeconomic, and climatic changes. We further aim to provide perspectives on the future direction of global change modeling to improve our understanding of the role of Northern Eurasia in the coupled human–Earth system. Modeling efforts have shown that environmental and socioeconomic changes in Northern Eurasia can have major impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems services, environmental sustainability, and the carbon cycle of the region, and beyond. These impacts have the potential to feedback onto and alter the global Earth system. We find that past and ongoing studies have largely focused on specific components of Earth system dynamics and have not systematically examined their feedbacks to the global Earth system and to society. We identify the crucial role of Earth system models in advancing our understanding of feedbacks within the region and with the global system. We further argue for the need for integrated assessment models (IAMs), a suite of models that couple human activity models to Earth system models, which are key to address many emerging issues that require a representation of the coupled human–Earth system.
  • Article
    Toward a consistent modeling framework to assess multi-sectoral climate impacts
    (Nature Publishing Group, 2018-02-13) Monier, Erwan ; Paltsev, Sergey ; Sokolov, Andrei P. ; Chen, Y.-H. Henry ; Gao, Xiang ; Ejaz, Qudsia ; Couzo, Evan ; Schlosser, C. Adam ; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie ; Fant, Charles ; Scott, Jeffery ; Kicklighter, David W. ; Morris, Jennifer ; Jacoby, Henry D. ; Prinn, Ronald G. ; Haigh, Martin
    Efforts to estimate the physical and economic impacts of future climate change face substantial challenges. To enrich the currently popular approaches to impact analysis—which involve evaluation of a damage function or multi-model comparisons based on a limited number of standardized scenarios—we propose integrating a geospatially resolved physical representation of impacts into a coupled human-Earth system modeling framework. Large internationally coordinated exercises cannot easily respond to new policy targets and the implementation of standard scenarios across models, institutions and research communities can yield inconsistent estimates. Here, we argue for a shift toward the use of a self-consistent integrated modeling framework to assess climate impacts, and discuss ways the integrated assessment modeling community can move in this direction. We then demonstrate the capabilities of such a modeling framework by conducting a multi-sectoral assessment of climate impacts under a range of consistent and integrated economic and climate scenarios that are responsive to new policies and business expectations.
  • Preprint
    Global economic effects of changes in crops, pasture, and forests due to changing climate, carbon dioxide, and ozone
    ( 2006-01) Reilly, John M. ; Paltsev, Sergey ; Felzer, Benjamin S. ; Wang, X. ; Kicklighter, David W. ; Melillo, Jerry M. ; Prinn, Ronald G. ; Sarofim, Marcus C. ; Sokolov, Andrei P. ; Wang, C.
    Multiple environmental changes will have consequences for global vegetation. To the extent that crop yields and pasture and forest productivity are affected there can be important economic consequences. We examine the combined effects of changes in climate, increases in carbon dioxide, and changes in tropospheric ozone on crop, pasture, and forest lands and the consequences for the global and regional economies. We examine scenarios where there is limited or little effort to control these substances, and policy scenarios that limit emissions of CO2 and ozone precursors. We find the effects of climate and CO2 to be generally positive, and the effects of ozone to be very detrimental. Unless ozone is strongly controlled damage could offset CO2 and climate benefits. We find that resource allocation among sectors in the economy, and trade among countries, can strongly affect the estimate of economic effect in a country.