Hayes
Daniel J.
Hayes
Daniel J.
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ArticleThe impacts of recent permafrost thaw on land–atmosphere greenhouse gas exchange(IOP Publishing, 2014-04-06) Hayes, Daniel J. ; Kicklighter, David W. ; McGuire, A. David ; Chen, Min ; Zhuang, Qianlai ; Yuan, Fengming ; Melillo, Jerry M. ; Wullschleger, Stan D.Permafrost thaw and the subsequent mobilization of carbon (C) stored in previously frozen soil organic matter (SOM) have the potential to be a strong positive feedback to climate. As the northern permafrost region experiences as much as a doubling of the rate of warming as the rest of the Earth, the vast amount of C in permafrost soils is vulnerable to thaw, decomposition and release as atmospheric greenhouse gases. Diagnostic and predictive estimates of high-latitude terrestrial C fluxes vary widely among different models depending on how dynamics in permafrost, and the seasonally thawed 'active layer' above it, are represented. Here, we employ a process-based model simulation experiment to assess the net effect of active layer dynamics on this 'permafrost carbon feedback' in recent decades, from 1970 to 2006, over the circumpolar domain of continuous and discontinuous permafrost. Over this time period, the model estimates a mean increase of 6.8 cm in active layer thickness across the domain, which exposes a total of 11.6 Pg C of thawed SOM to decomposition. According to our simulation experiment, mobilization of this previously frozen C results in an estimated cumulative net source of 3.7 Pg C to the atmosphere since 1970 directly tied to active layer dynamics. Enhanced decomposition from the newly exposed SOM accounts for the release of both CO2 (4.0 Pg C) and CH4 (0.03 Pg C), but is partially compensated by CO2 uptake (0.3 Pg C) associated with enhanced net primary production of vegetation. This estimated net C transfer to the atmosphere from permafrost thaw represents a significant factor in the overall ecosystem carbon budget of the Pan-Arctic, and a non-trivial additional contribution on top of the combined fossil fuel emissions from the eight Arctic nations over this time period.
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PreprintAn analysis of the carbon balance of the Arctic Basin from 1997 to 2006( 2010-06-18) McGuire, A. David ; Hayes, Daniel J. ; Kicklighter, David W. ; Manizza, Manfredi ; Zhuang, Qianlai ; Chen, Min ; Follows, Michael J. ; Gurney, Kevin R. ; McClelland, James W. ; Melillo, Jerry M. ; Peterson, Bruce J. ; Prinn, Ronald G.This study used several model-based tools to analyze the dynamics of the Arctic Basin between 1997 and 2006 as a linked system of land-ocean-atmosphere C exchange. The analysis estimates that terrestrial areas of the Arctic Basin lost 62.9 Tg C yr-1 and that the Arctic Ocean gained 94.1 Tg C yr-1. Arctic lands and oceans were a net CO2 sink of 108.9 Tg C yr-1, which is within the range of uncertainty in estimates from atmospheric inversions. Although both lands and oceans of the Arctic were estimated to be CO2 sinks, the land sink diminished in strength because of increased fire disturbance compared to previous decades, while the ocean sink increased in strength because of increased biological pump activity associated with reduced sea ice cover. Terrestrial areas of the Arctic were a net source of 41.5 Tg CH4 yr-1 that increased by 0.6 Tg CH4 yr-1 during the decade of analysis, a magnitude that is comparable with an atmospheric inversion of CH4. Because the radiative forcing of the estimated CH4 emissions is much greater than the CO2 sink, the analysis suggests that the Arctic Basin is a substantial net source of green house gas forcing to the climate system.
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ArticleIs the northern high-latitude land-based CO2 sink weakening?(American Geophysical Union, 2011-08-30) Hayes, Daniel J. ; McGuire, A. David ; Kicklighter, David W. ; Gurney, Kevin R. ; Burnside, T. J. ; Melillo, Jerry M.Studies indicate that, historically, terrestrial ecosystems of the northern high-latitude region may have been responsible for up to 60% of the global net land-based sink for atmospheric CO2. However, these regions have recently experienced remarkable modification of the major driving forces of the carbon cycle, including surface air temperature warming that is significantly greater than the global average and associated increases in the frequency and severity of disturbances. Whether Arctic tundra and boreal forest ecosystems will continue to sequester atmospheric CO2 in the face of these dramatic changes is unknown. Here we show the results of model simulations that estimate a 41 Tg C yr−1 sink in the boreal land regions from 1997 to 2006, which represents a 73% reduction in the strength of the sink estimated for previous decades in the late 20th century. Our results suggest that CO2 uptake by the region in previous decades may not be as strong as previously estimated. The recent decline in sink strength is the combined result of (1) weakening sinks due to warming-induced increases in soil organic matter decomposition and (2) strengthening sources from pyrogenic CO2 emissions as a result of the substantial area of boreal forest burned in wildfires across the region in recent years. Such changes create positive feedbacks to the climate system that accelerate global warming, putting further pressure on emission reductions to achieve atmospheric stabilization targets.
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ArticleInsights and issues with simulating terrestrial DOC loading of Arctic river networks(Ecological Society of America, 2013-12) Kicklighter, David W. ; Hayes, Daniel J. ; McClelland, James W. ; Peterson, Bruce J. ; McGuire, A. David ; Melillo, Jerry M.Terrestrial carbon dynamics influence the contribution of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) to river networks in addition to hydrology. In this study, we use a biogeochemical process model to simulate the lateral transfer of DOC from land to the Arctic Ocean via riverine transport. We estimate that, over the 20th century, the pan-Arctic watershed has contributed, on average, 32 Tg C/yr of DOC to river networks emptying into the Arctic Ocean with most of the DOC coming from the extensive area of boreal deciduous needle-leaved forests and forested wetlands in Eurasian watersheds. We also estimate that the rate of terrestrial DOC loading has been increasing by 0.037 Tg C/yr2 over the 20th century primarily as a result of climate-induced increases in water yield. These increases have been offset by decreases in terrestrial DOC loading caused by wildfires. Other environmental factors (CO2 fertilization, ozone pollution, atmospheric nitrogen deposition, timber harvest, agriculture) are estimated to have relatively small effects on terrestrial DOC loading to Arctic rivers. The effects of the various environmental factors on terrestrial carbon dynamics have both offset and enhanced concurrent effects on hydrology to influence terrestrial DOC loading and may be changing the relative importance of terrestrial carbon dynamics on this carbon flux. Improvements in simulating terrestrial DOC loading to pan-Arctic rivers in the future will require better information on the production and consumption of DOC within the soil profile, the transfer of DOC from land to headwater streams, the spatial distribution of precipitation and its temporal trends, carbon dynamics of larch-dominated ecosystems in eastern Siberia, and the role of industrial organic effluents on carbon budgets of rivers in western Russia.
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ArticleOceanGliders: A component of the integrated GOOS(Frontiers Media, 2019-10-02) Testor, Pierre ; de Young, Brad ; Rudnick, Daniel L. ; Glenn, Scott ; Hayes, Daniel J. ; Lee, Craig M. ; Pattiaratchi, Charitha ; Hill, Katherine Louise ; Heslop, Emma ; Turpin, Victor ; Alenius, Pekka ; Barrera, Carlos ; Barth, John A. ; Beaird, Nicholas ; Bécu, Guislain ; Bosse, Anthony ; Bourrin, François ; Brearley, J. Alexander ; Chao, Yi ; Chen, Sue ; Chiggiato, Jacopo ; Coppola, Laurent ; Crout, Richard ; Cummings, James A. ; Curry, Beth ; Curry, Ruth G. ; Davis, Richard F. ; Desai, Kruti ; DiMarco, Steven F. ; Edwards, Catherine ; Fielding, Sophie ; Fer, Ilker ; Frajka-Williams, Eleanor ; Gildor, Hezi ; Goni, Gustavo J. ; Gutierrez, Dimitri ; Haugan, Peter M. ; Hebert, David ; Heiderich, Joleen ; Henson, Stephanie A. ; Heywood, Karen J. ; Hogan, Patrick ; Houpert, Loïc ; Huh, Sik ; Inall, Mark E. ; Ishii, Masao ; Ito, Shin-ichi ; Itoh, Sachihiko ; Jan, Sen ; Kaiser, Jan ; Karstensen, Johannes ; Kirkpatrick, Barbara ; Klymak, Jody M. ; Kohut, Josh ; Krahmann, Gerd ; Krug, Marjolaine ; McClatchie, Sam ; Marin, Frédéric ; Mauri, Elena ; Mehra, Avichal ; Meredith, Michael P. ; Meunier, Thomas ; Miles, Travis ; Morell, Julio M. ; Mortier, Laurent ; Nicholson, Sarah ; O'Callaghan, Joanne ; O'Conchubhair, Diarmuid ; Oke, Peter ; Pallás-Sanz, Enric ; Palmer, Matthew D. ; Park, Jong Jin ; Perivoliotis, Leonidas ; Poulain, Pierre Marie ; Perry, Ruth ; Queste, Bastien ; Rainville, Luc ; Rehm, Eric ; Roughan, Moninya ; Rome, Nicholas ; Ross, Tetjana ; Ruiz, Simon ; Saba, Grace ; Schaeffer, Amandine ; Schönau, Martha ; Schroeder, Katrin ; Shimizu, Yugo ; Sloyan, Bernadette M. ; Smeed, David A. ; Snowden, Derrick ; Song, Yumi ; Swart, Sebastiaan ; Tenreiro, Miguel ; Thompson, Andrew ; Tintore, Joaquin ; Todd, Robert E. ; Toro, Cesar ; Venables, Hugh J. ; Wagawa, Taku ; Waterman, Stephanie N. ; Watlington, Roy A. ; Wilson, DougThe OceanGliders program started in 2016 to support active coordination and enhancement of global glider activity. OceanGliders contributes to the international efforts of the Global Ocean Observation System (GOOS) for Climate, Ocean Health, and Operational Services. It brings together marine scientists and engineers operating gliders around the world: (1) to observe the long-term physical, biogeochemical, and biological ocean processes and phenomena that are relevant for societal applications; and, (2) to contribute to the GOOS through real-time and delayed mode data dissemination. The OceanGliders program is distributed across national and regional observing systems and significantly contributes to integrated, multi-scale and multi-platform sampling strategies. OceanGliders shares best practices, requirements, and scientific knowledge needed for glider operations, data collection and analysis. It also monitors global glider activity and supports the dissemination of glider data through regional and global databases, in real-time and delayed modes, facilitating data access to the wider community. OceanGliders currently supports national, regional and global initiatives to maintain and expand the capabilities and application of gliders to meet key global challenges such as improved measurement of ocean boundary currents, water transformation and storm forecast.
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ArticleEvaluation of simulated soil carbon dynamics in Arctic-Boreal ecosystems(IOP Publishing, 2020-02-07) Huntzinger, Deborah N. ; Schaefer, Kevin ; Schwalm, Christopher R. ; Fisher, Joshua B. ; Hayes, Daniel ; Stofferahn, Eric ; Carey, Joanna C. ; Michalak, Anna M. ; Wei, Yaxing ; Jain, Atul K. ; Kolus, Hannah ; Mao, Jiafu ; Poulter, Benjamin ; Shi, Xiaoying ; Tang, Jianwu ; Tian, HanqinGiven the magnitude of soil carbon stocks in northern ecosystems, and the vulnerability of these stocks to climate warming, land surface models must accurately represent soil carbon dynamics in these regions. We evaluate soil carbon stocks and turnover rates, and the relationship between soil carbon loss with soil temperature and moisture, from an ensemble of eleven global land surface models. We focus on the region of NASA's Arctic-Boreal vulnerability experiment (ABoVE) in North America to inform data collection and model development efforts. Models exhibit an order of magnitude difference in estimates of current total soil carbon stocks, generally under- or overestimating the size of current soil carbon stocks by greater than 50 PgC. We find that a model's soil carbon stock at steady-state in 1901 is the prime driver of its soil carbon stock a hundred years later—overwhelming the effect of environmental forcing factors like climate. The greatest divergence between modeled and observed soil carbon stocks is in regions dominated by peat and permafrost soils, suggesting that models are failing to capture the frozen soil carbon dynamics of permafrost regions. Using a set of functional benchmarks to test the simulated relationship of soil respiration to both soil temperature and moisture, we find that although models capture the observed shape of the soil moisture response of respiration, almost half of the models examined show temperature sensitivities, or Q10 values, that are half of observed. Significantly, models that perform better against observational constraints of respiration or carbon stock size do not necessarily perform well in terms of their functional response to key climatic factors like changing temperature. This suggests that models may be arriving at the right result, but for the wrong reason. The results of this work can help to bridge the gap between data and models by both pointing to the need to constrain initial carbon pool sizes, as well as highlighting the importance of incorporating functional benchmarks into ongoing, mechanistic modeling activities such as those included in ABoVE.