Scott Jeffery

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Scott
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Jeffery
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  • Article
    Toward a consistent modeling framework to assess multi-sectoral climate impacts
    (Nature Publishing Group, 2018-02-13) Monier, Erwan ; Paltsev, Sergey ; Sokolov, Andrei P. ; Chen, Y.-H. Henry ; Gao, Xiang ; Ejaz, Qudsia ; Couzo, Evan ; Schlosser, C. Adam ; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie ; Fant, Charles ; Scott, Jeffery ; Kicklighter, David W. ; Morris, Jennifer ; Jacoby, Henry D. ; Prinn, Ronald G. ; Haigh, Martin
    Efforts to estimate the physical and economic impacts of future climate change face substantial challenges. To enrich the currently popular approaches to impact analysis—which involve evaluation of a damage function or multi-model comparisons based on a limited number of standardized scenarios—we propose integrating a geospatially resolved physical representation of impacts into a coupled human-Earth system modeling framework. Large internationally coordinated exercises cannot easily respond to new policy targets and the implementation of standard scenarios across models, institutions and research communities can yield inconsistent estimates. Here, we argue for a shift toward the use of a self-consistent integrated modeling framework to assess climate impacts, and discuss ways the integrated assessment modeling community can move in this direction. We then demonstrate the capabilities of such a modeling framework by conducting a multi-sectoral assessment of climate impacts under a range of consistent and integrated economic and climate scenarios that are responsive to new policies and business expectations.
  • Article
    “Climate response functions” for the Arctic Ocean : a proposed coordinated modelling experiment
    (Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union, 2017-07-21) Marshall, John C. ; Scott, Jeffery ; Proshutinsky, Andrey
    A coordinated set of Arctic modelling experiments, which explore how the Arctic responds to changes in external forcing, is proposed. Our goal is to compute and compare "climate response functions" (CRFs) – the transient response of key observable indicators such as sea-ice extent, freshwater content of the Beaufort Gyre, etc. – to abrupt "step" changes in forcing fields across a number of Arctic models. Changes in wind, freshwater sources, and inflows to the Arctic basin are considered. Convolutions of known or postulated time series of these forcing fields with their respective CRFs then yield the (linear) response of these observables. This allows the project to inform, and interface directly with, Arctic observations and observers and the climate change community. Here we outline the rationale behind such experiments and illustrate our approach in the context of a coarse-resolution model of the Arctic based on the MITgcm. We conclude by summarizing the expected benefits of such an activity and encourage other modelling groups to compute CRFs with their own models so that we might begin to document their robustness to model formulation, resolution, and parameterization.
  • Article
    Seasonally derived components of the Canada Basin halocline
    (John Wiley & Sons, 2017-05-26) Timmermans, Mary-Louise ; Marshall, John C. ; Proshutinsky, Andrey ; Scott, Jeffery
    The Arctic halocline stratification is an important barrier to the transport of deep ocean heat to the underside of sea ice. Surface water in the Chukchi Sea, warmed in summer by solar radiation, ventilates the Canada Basin halocline to create a warm layer below the mixed-layer base. The year-round persistence of this layer is shown to be consistent with the seasonal cycle of halocline ventilation. We present hydrographic observations and model results to show how Chukchi Sea density outcrops migrate seasonally as surface fluxes modify salinity and temperature. This migration is such that in winter, isopycnals bounding the warm halocline are blocked from ventilation, while the cool, relatively salty and deeper halocline layers are ventilated. In this way, the warm halocline is isolated by stratification (both vertically and laterally) each winter. Results shed light on the fate and impact to sea ice of the warm halocline under future freshening and warming of the surface Arctic Ocean.