Schimel David S.

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Schimel
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David S.
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  • Preprint
    Carbon and climate system coupling on timescales from the Precambrian to the Anthropocene
    ( 2007-05-29) Doney, Scott C. ; Schimel, David S.
    The global carbon and climate systems are closely intertwined, with biogeochemical processes responding to and driving climate variations. Over a range of geological and historical time-scales, warmer climate conditions are associated with higher atmospheric levels of CO2, an important climate-modulating greenhouse gas. The atmospheric CO2-temperature relationship reflects two dynamics, the planet’s climate sensitivity to a perturbation in atmospheric CO2 and the stability of non-atmospheric carbon reservoirs to evolving climate. Both exhibit non-linear behavior, and coupled carbon-climate interactions have the potential to introduce both stabilizing and destabilizing feedback loops into the Earth System. Here we bring together evidence from a wide range of geological, observational, experimental and modeling studies on the dominant interactions between the carbon cycle and climate. The review is organized by time-scale, spanning interannual to centennial climate variability, Holocene millennial variations and Pleistocene glacial-interglacial cycles, and million year and longer variations over the Precambrian and Phanerozoic. Our focus is on characterizing and, where possible quantifying, the emergent behavior internal to the coupled carbon-climate system as well as the responses of the system to external forcing from tectonics, orbital dynamics, catastrophic events, and anthropogenic fossil fuel emissions. While there are many unresolved uncertainties and complexity in the carbon cycle, one emergent property is clear across time scales: while CO2 can increase in the atmosphere quickly, returning to lower levels through natural processes is much slower, so the consequences of the human perturbation will far outlive the emissions that caused them.
  • Article
    Role of carbon cycle observations and knowledge in carbon management
    (Annual Reviews, 2003-08-14) Dilling, Lisa ; Doney, Scott C. ; Edmonds, Jae ; Gurney, Kevin R. ; Harriss, Robert ; Schimel, David S. ; Stephens, Britton B. ; Stokes, Gerald
    Agriculture and industrial development have led to inadvertent changes in the natural carbon cycle. As a consequence, concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases have increased in the atmosphere and may lead to changes in climate. The current challenge facing society is to develop options for future management of the carbon cycle. A variety of approaches has been suggested: direct reduction of emissions, deliberate manipulation of the natural carbon cycle to enhance sequestration, and capture and isolation of carbon from fossil fuel use. Policy development to date has laid out some of the general principles to which carbon management should adhere. These are summarized as: how much carbon is stored, by what means, and for how long. To successfully manage carbon for climate purposes requires increased understanding of carbon cycle dynamics and improvement in the scientific capabilities available for measurement as well as for policy needs. The specific needs for scientific information to underpin carbon cycle management decisions are not yet broadly known. A stronger dialogue between decision makers and scientists must be developed to foster improved application of scientific knowledge to decisions. This review focuses on the current knowledge of the carbon cycle, carbon measurement capabilities (with an emphasis on the continental scale) and the relevance of carbon cycle science to carbon sequestration goals.
  • Preprint
    Variational data assimilation for atmospheric CO2
    ( 2006-04-30) Baker, David F. ; Doney, Scott C. ; Schimel, David S.
    The sources and sinks of important climatic trace gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2) are often deduced from spatial and temporal variations in atmospheric concentrations. Reducing uncertainties in our understanding of the contemporary carbon budget and its underlying dynamics, however, requires significantly denser observations globally than is practical with in situ measurements. Space-based measurements appear technically feasible but require innovations in data analysis approaches. We develop a variational data assimilation scheme to estimate surface CO2 fluxes at fine time/space scales from such dense atmospheric data. Global flux estimates at a daily time step and model-grid spatial resolution (4° × 5° here) are rapidly achieved after only a few dozen minimization steps. We quantify the flux errors from existing, planned and hypothetical surface and space-borne observing systems. Simulations show that the planned NASA Orbital Carbon Observatory (OCO) satellite should provide significant additional information beyond that from existing and proposed in situ observations. Improvements in data assimilation techniques and in mechanistic process models are both needed to fully exploit the emerging global carbon observing system.
  • Article
    Carbon source/sink information provided by column CO2 measurements from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory
    (Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union, 2010-05-03) Baker, David F. ; Bosch, H. ; Doney, Scott C. ; O'Brien, D. ; Schimel, David S.
    We quantify how well column-integrated CO2 measurements from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) should be able to constrain surface CO2 fluxes, given the presence of various error sources. We use variational data assimilation to optimize weekly fluxes at a 2°×5° resolution (lat/lon) using simulated data averaged across each model grid box overflight (typically every ~33 s). Grid-scale simulations of this sort have been carried out before for OCO using simplified assumptions for the measurement error. Here, we more accurately describe the OCO measurements in two ways. First, we use new estimates of the single-sounding retrieval uncertainty and averaging kernel, both computed as a function of surface type, solar zenith angle, aerosol optical depth, and pointing mode (nadir vs. glint). Second, we collapse the information content of all valid retrievals from each grid box crossing into an equivalent multi-sounding measurement uncertainty, factoring in both time/space error correlations and data rejection due to clouds and thick aerosols. Finally, we examine the impact of three types of systematic errors: measurement biases due to aerosols, transport errors, and mistuning errors caused by assuming incorrect statistics. When only random measurement errors are considered, both nadir- and glint-mode data give error reductions over the land of ~45% for the weekly fluxes, and ~65% for seasonal fluxes. Systematic errors reduce both the magnitude and spatial extent of these improvements by about a factor of two, however. Improvements nearly as large are achieved over the ocean using glint-mode data, but are degraded even more by the systematic errors. Our ability to identify and remove systematic errors in both the column retrievals and atmospheric assimilations will thus be critical for maximizing the usefulness of the OCO data.
  • Preprint
    Reconciling carbon-cycle concepts, terminology, and methods
    ( 2006-01-06) Chapin, F. Stuart ; Woodwell, G. M. ; Randerson, James T. ; Rastetter, Edward B. ; Lovett, G. M. ; Baldocchi, Dennis D. ; Clark, D. A. ; Harmon, Mark E. ; Schimel, David S. ; Valentini, R. ; Wirth, C. ; Aber, J. D. ; Cole, Jonathan J. ; Goulden, Michael L. ; Harden, J. W. ; Heimann, M. ; Howarth, Robert W. ; Matson, P. A. ; McGuire, A. David ; Melillo, Jerry M. ; Mooney, H. A. ; Neff, Jason C. ; Houghton, Richard A. ; Pace, Michael L. ; Ryan, M. G. ; Running, Steven W. ; Sala, Osvaldo E. ; Schlesinger, William H. ; Schulze, E.-D.
    Recent patterns and projections of climatic change have focused increased scientific and public attention on patterns of carbon (C) cycling and its controls, particularly the factors that determine whether an ecosystem is a net source or sink of atmospheric CO2. Net ecosystem production (NEP), a central concept in C-cycling research, has been used to represent two different concepts by C-cycling scientists. We propose that NEP be restricted to just one of its two original definitions—the imbalance between gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER), and that a new term—net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB)—be applied to the net rate of C accumulation in (or loss from; negative sign) ecosystems. NECB differs from NEP when C fluxes other than C fixation and respiration occur or when inorganic C enters or leaves in dissolved form. These fluxes include leaching loss or lateral transfer of C from the ecosystem; emission of volatile organic C, methane, and carbon monoxide; and soot and CO2 from fire. C fluxes in addition to NEP are particularly important determinants of NECB over long time scales. However, even over short time scales, they are important in ecosystems such as streams, estuaries, wetlands, and cities. Recent technological advances have led to a diversity of approaches to measuring C fluxes at different temporal and spatial scales. These approaches frequently capture different components of NEP or NECB and can therefore be compared across scales only by carefully specifying the fluxes included in the measurements. By explicitly identifying the fluxes that comprise NECB and other components of the C cycle, such as net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and net biome production (NBP), we provide a less ambiguous framework for understanding and communicating recent changes in the global C cycle. Key words: Net ecosystem production, net ecosystem carbon balance, gross primary production, ecosystem respiration, autotrophic respiration, heterotrophic respiration, net ecosystem exchange, net biome production, net primary production.