Hitchcock Gary

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CHANS : Florida red tides and coastal populations as a coupled nature-human system

( 2013-10-28) Hoagland, Porter ; Kirkpatrick, Barbara ; Kirkpatrick, Gary ; Hitchcock, Gary ; Kohler, Kate ; Lovko, Vince ; Ullmann, Steven G. ; Reich, Andrew ; Fleming, Lora E.

Coupled nature-human (CNH) systems are now the focus of a growing number of inter-disciplinary research programs worldwide. As implied by the term “coupled,” these systems in-volve interactions between humans and nature, often affecting the dynamic characteristics of each component. Both natural and social scientists are engaged in developing a deeper un-derstanding of these dynamics, focusing on the linkages and feedbacks affecting the trajectories of coupled system behavior. Several researchers have begun to identify the generic aspects of nature-human couplings. Many of these aspects have been adapted from the field of ecology, where the dynamic characteristics of ecological systems have been studied for decades. These aspects include system heterogeneity, time lags, reciprocal feedbacks, thresholds, surprises, legacies, and resilience. The presence of such aspects has implications for the stability and persistence of particular ecosystem states, leading potentially to further implications for human heath and welfare. This talk reviews a specific type of natural hazard-human coupling that relates to coastal blooms of toxic marine algae, drawing examples primarily from human interactions with blooms of the toxic dinoflagellate Karenia brevis from the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This talk introduces a set of HAB Symposium “speed” presentations relating to different aspects of an ongoing multi-institutional and inter-disciplinary research project that examines Florida red tides as a type of CNH system. We present examples of the generic aspects of CNH systems in the context of Florida red tides, and we discuss also some of the challenges involved in compiling relevant data to support our analytical efforts.
Lessening the hazards of Florida red tides: a common sense approach

(Frontiers Media, 2020-07-09) Hoagland, Porter ; Kirkpatrick, Barbara ; Jin, Di ; Kirkpatrick, Gary ; Fleming, Lora E. ; Ullmann, Steven G. ; Beet, Andrew R. ; Hitchcock, Gary ; Harrison, Kate K. ; Li, Zongchao C. ; Garrison, Bruce ; Diaz, Roberto E. ; Lovko, Vince

In the Gulf of Mexico, especially along the southwest Florida coast, blooms of the dinoflagellate Karenia brevis are a coastal natural hazard. The organism produces a potent class of toxins, known as brevetoxins, which are released following cell lysis into ocean or estuarine waters or, upon aerosolization, into the atmosphere. When exposed to sufficient levels of brevetoxins, humans may suffer from respiratory, gastrointestinal, or neurological illnesses. The hazard has been exacerbated by the geometric growth of human populations, including both residents and tourists, along Florida’s southwest coast. Impacts to marine organisms or ecosystems also may occur, such as fish kills or deaths of protected mammals, turtles, or birds. Since the occurrence of a severe Karenia brevis bloom off the southwest Florida coast three-quarters of a century ago, there has been an ongoing debate about the best way for humans to mitigate the impacts of this hazard. Because of the importance of tourism to coastal Florida, there are incentives for businesses and governments alike to obfuscate descriptions of these blooms, leading to the social amplification of risk. We argue that policies to improve the public’s ability to understand the physical attributes of blooms, specifically risk communication policies, are to be preferred over physical, chemical, or biological controls. In particular, we argue that responses to this type of hazard must emphasize maintaining the continuity of programs of scientific research, environmental monitoring, public education, and notification. We propose a common-sense approach to risk communication, comprising a simplification of the public provision of existing sources of information to be made available on a mobile website.
CHANS : the characteristics of cost-effective policy responses for harmful algal blooms [poster]

( 2015-11-11) Hoagland, Porter ; Kirkpatrick, Barbara ; Kirkpatrick, Gary ; Hitchcock, Gary ; Ullmann, Steven G. ; Reich, Andrew ; Fleming, Lora E. ; Jin, Di ; Beet, Andrew R. ; Li, Cathy ; Garrison, Bruce ; Lovko, Vince ; Kohler, Kate ; Rudge, Katrin

A growing concern for coastal management is the choice of appropriate public or private responses to HABs as a natural hazard. Considerable efforts have been devoted to understanding the scientific aspects of HABs, including their distributions in space and time, their ecological roles, and the nature of their toxic effects, among others. Much energy also has been directed at exploring socio-economic impacts and identifying potential management actions, including actions to prevent, control, or mitigate blooms. Using blooms of Florida red tide (Karenia brevis) as a case study, we develop an approach to the choice of policy responses to K. brevis blooms. Importantly, several new types of public health, environmental, and socio-economic impacts now are beginning to be revealed, including human gastrointestinal and potential neurological illnesses; morbidities and mortalities of protected species, including manatees, cetaceans, and sea turtles; increased numbers of hospital emergency room visits for the elderly; increased respiratory morbidities in workers, such as beach lifeguards; and potential reduced K- 12 school attendance. Optimal policy responses to this hazard are likely to depend critically upon why and where a bloom occurs, its spatial and temporal scales and toxicity, and the nature of its impacts. In the face of significant ongoing scientific uncertainties, and given estimates of impacts, we find that policies to expand and stabilize scientific research programs and environmental monitoring efforts, to develop and implement education programs for both residents and tourists, and to communicate the physical aspects of blooms to the public in a timely fashion are likely optimal.
Human responses to Florida red tides : policy awareness and adherence to local fertilizer ordinances

( 2014-06) Kirkpatrick, Barbara ; Kohler, Kate ; Byrne, Margaret ; Fleming, Lora E. ; Scheller, Karen ; Reich, Andrew ; Hitchcock, Gary ; Kirkpatrick, Gary ; Ullmann, Steven G. ; Hoagland, Porter

To mitigate the damages of natural hazards, policy responses can be beneficial only if they are effective. Using a self-administered survey approach, this paper focuses on the adherence to local fertilizer ordinances (i.e., county or municipal rules regulating the application of fertilizer to private lawns or facilities such as golf courses) implemented in jurisdictions along the southwest Florida coast in response to hazardous blooms of Florida red tides (Karenia brevis). These ordinances play a role in the context of evolving programs of water pollution control at federal, state, water basin, and local levels. With respect to policy effectiveness, while the strength of physical linkages is of critical importance, the extent to which humans affected are aware of and adhere to the relevant rules, is equally critical. We sought to understand the public’s depth of understanding about the rationales for local fertilizer ordinances. Respondents in Sarasota, Florida, were asked about their fertilizer practices in an area that has experienced several major blooms of Florida red tides over the past two decades. A highly educated, older population of 305 residents and “snowbirds” reported relatively little knowledge about a local fertilizer ordinance, its purpose, or whether it would change the frequency, size, or duration of red tides. This finding held true even among subpopulations that were expected to have more interest in or to be more knowledgeable about harmful algal blooms. In the face of uncertain science and environmental outcomes, and with individual motivations at odds with evolving public policies, the effectiveness of local community efforts to decrease the impacts of red tides may be compromised. Targeted social-science research on human perceptions about the risks of Florida red tides and education about the rationales for potential policy responses is warranted.
Environmental controls, oceanography and population dynamics of pathogens and harmful algal blooms: connecting sources to human exposure

(BioMed Central, 2008-11-07) Dyble, Julianne ; Bienfang, Paul ; Dusek, Eva ; Hitchcock, Gary ; Holland, A. Fredrick ; Laws, Edward A. ; Lerczak, James A. ; McGillicuddy, Dennis J. ; Minnett, Peter ; Moore, Stephanie K. ; O'Kelly, Charles ; Solo-Gabriele, Helena M. ; Wang, John D.

Coupled physical-biological models are capable of linking the complex interactions between environmental factors and physical hydrodynamics to simulate the growth, toxicity and transport of infectious pathogens and harmful algal blooms (HABs). Such simulations can be used to assess and predict the impact of pathogens and HABs on human health. Given the widespread and increasing reliance of coastal communities on aquatic systems for drinking water, seafood and recreation, such predictions are critical for making informed resource management decisions. Here we identify three challenges to making this connection between pathogens/HABs and human health: predicting concentrations and toxicity; identifying the spatial and temporal scales of population and ecosystem interactions; and applying the understanding of population dynamics of pathogens/HABs to management strategies. We elaborate on the need to meet each of these challenges, describe how modeling approaches can be used and discuss strategies for moving forward in addressing these challenges.
Modeling the influence of environmental factors on human respiratory irritation from natural exposures to Karenia brevis aerosols

( 2015-11-11) Kirkpatrick, Gary ; Kirkpatrick, Barbara ; Hitchcock, Gary ; Hoagland, Porter

The Coupled Natural and Human Systems program of US National Science Foundation is supporting our effort to elucidate linkages between harmful algal blooms and associated impacts on human health, society and economy of coastal communities. The human respiratory system is negatively impacted by inhaled toxic aerosols from the Florida red tide dinoflagellate, Karenia brevis. It has been hypothesized that surf height, wind speed, and wind direction were the predominant factors determining the amount of toxin reaching exposed individuals. Recent findings indicate that there are more environmental factors influencing the level of respiratory impacts from brevetoxins. We report on analyses that include additional factors such as air temperature, water temperature, dew point, barometric pressure, K. brevis cell counts, annd distance and direction from K. brevis cells to the individual. Factors contributing most to differences between no respiratory irritation and mild respiratory irritation were water temperature, air temperature, and dew point. Those factors contributing most to differences between mild respiratory irritation and moderate respiratory irritation were wind direction, surf conditions, and wind speed. Data on respiratory impacts was provided by the Beach Conditions Reporting System (BCRS). This system provides twice daily reports from lifeguards and park rangers at public beaches. These subjective reports include observed levels of respiratory irritation among beach-goers. Other environmental data were provided by a variety of local sources including private and public weather stations and many monitoring and research efforts. The resultant model provides a means to forecast respiratory impacts from observations of HAB distribution, and meteorological and oceanographic conditions.
Testing for the potential effects of Karenia brevis on school absences [poster]

( 2015-11-15) Moore, Tamecia ; Diaz, Roberto E. ; Ullmann, Steven G. ; Hoagland, Porter ; Beet, Andrew R. ; Jin, Di ; Kirkpatrick, Barbara ; Kirkpatrick, Gary ; Fleming, Lora E. ; Hitchcock, Gary ; Drennon, Michael ; Kumar, Naresh

We analyzed a potential relationship between changes in school absences in Sarasota County and Karenia brevis (Kb) count data. Brevetoxins released during Kb blooms could be a reason for students experiencing increased respiratory or gastrointestinal illnesses, causing an increase in absence rates. We designed a map to relate the locations of Sarasota County schools and the distributions of those Kb counts with a minimum of 10,000 cell counts per liter and above. Due to the proximity of Kb counts, we hypothesized that brevetoxins could have a greater effect on the schools near the coast of Florida rather than the schools inland. Because individuals could be affected by brevetoxins up to several days after being exposed, we expected to find a lagged effect of a bloom occurrence on school absences. Using a regression approach, we were unable to detect an association between Kb counts and student absences. In some cases, the direction of the effects were opposite to what would be expected (i.e., an increase in Kb counts was associated with a reduction in the percent absent rate). The results indicated that over 70% of the variation in the school percent absent rate could be explained by the latent characteristics of individual schools (such as variations in student populations across different schools), by school week, by month (such as the effects of flu outbreaks or and other seasonal factors), and by year.
CHANS : modeling the dynamics of HABs, human communities, and policy choices along the Florida Gulf Coast

( 2015-11-19) Hoagland, Porter ; Kirkpatrick, Barbara ; Kirkpatrick, Gary ; Hitchcock, Gary ; Ullmann, Steven G. ; Reich, Andrew ; Fleming, Lora E. ; Jin, Di ; Beet, Andrew R. ; Li, Cathy ; Garrison, Bruce ; Lovko, Vince ; Kohler, Kate ; Rudge, Katrin

Coupled human-nature systems (CHANS) involve dynamic interactions between humans and nature, often influenced by and affecting the distinct dynamic characteristics of each component. We present an overview of an ongoing interdisciplinary research program focused on a specific type of systems that couple expanding and fluctuating human coastal populations to episodic blooms of toxic marine algae, drawing examples primarily from human interactions with blooms of the toxic dinoflagellate Karenia brevis from the eastern Gulf of Mexico (“Florida red tides”). We introduce a set of HAB Symposium “speed” presentations and associated posters based on multi-disciplinary research. Using extant, but extraordinary, data to specify empirical models, this program of research has focused on characterizing the influence of anthropogenic sources on K. brevis blooms, assessing the public health and economic impacts of these blooms in an exposure-response framework, and defining the choice of appropriate human policy responses to the hazard. We present examples of the generic aspects of CHANS systems in the context of Florida red tides, and we discuss also some of the challenges involved in compiling and analyzing the relevant data to support our positive and normative analytical efforts.
The neurological effects of Florida Red Tide (FRT) blooms [poster]

( 2015-11-15) Diaz, Roberto E. ; Moore, Tamecia ; Ullmann, Steven G. ; Hoagland, Porter ; Beet, Andrew R. ; Jin, Di ; Kirkpatrick, Barbara ; Kirkpatrick, Gary ; Fleming, Lora E. ; Hitchcock, Gary

Karenia brevis is a marine dinoflagellate responsible for Florida red tide (FRT) blooms off the west coast of Florida. K. brevis contains brevetoxins, a neurotoxin that is absorbed by shellfish as well as released into the air. Brevetoxins are known to cause disruptions in normal neurological functions and are associated with neurotoxic shellfish poisoning (NSP). Previous research has emphasized the effect of FRT blooms on human health, from gastrointestinal to respiratory illnesses. However, there has been little research examining the effect of FRT blooms on neurological illnesses. There is research highlighting the biochemical effects of brevetoxins on mammalian nervous systems, so these symptoms can be matched to hospital codes that describe a hospital patient’s affliction. With these hospitalization codes, it is possible to study the relationship between FRT blooms and the occurrence of neurological illnesses in affected counties. The hospital data consists of inpatient data from 1988-2010 and emergency room data from 2005-2010. We will also use data containing K. brevis cells per liter as a measure of red tide occurrences.

Hitchcock Gary

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