Hapke Cheryl J.

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Hapke
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Cheryl J.
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  • Article
    Improving understanding of near-term barrier island evolution through multi-decadal assessment of morphologic change
    (Elsevier B.V., 2013-02-27) Lentz, Erika E. ; Hapke, Cheryl J. ; Stockdon, Hilary F. ; Hehre, Rachel E.
    Observed morphodynamic changes over multiple decades were coupled with storm-driven run-up characteristics at Fire Island, New York, to explore the influence of wave processes relative to the impacts of other coastal change drivers on the near-term evolution of the barrier island. Historical topography was generated from digital stereo-photogrammetry and compared with more recent lidar surveys to quantify near-term (decadal) morphodynamic changes to the beach and primary dune system between the years 1969, 1999, and 2009. Notably increased profile volumes were observed along the entirety of the island in 1999, and likely provide the eolian source for the steady dune crest progradation observed over the relatively quiescent decade that followed. Persistent patterns of erosion and accretion over 10-, 30-, and 40-year intervals are attributable to variations in island morphology, human activity, and variations in offshore bathymetry and island orientation that influence the wave energy reaching the coast. Areas of documented long-term historical inlet formation and extensive bayside marsh development show substantial landward translation of the dune–beach profile over the near-term period of this study. Correlations among areas predicted to overwash, observed elevation changes of the dune crestline, and observed instances of overwash in undeveloped segments of the barrier island verify that overwash locations can be accurately predicted in undeveloped segments of coast. In fact, an assessment of 2012 aerial imagery collected after Hurricane Sandy confirms that overwash occurred at the majority of near-term locations persistently predicted to overwash. In addition to the storm wave climate, factors related to variations within the geologic framework which in turn influence island orientation, offshore slope, and sediment supply impact island behavior on near-term timescales.
  • Article
    Characterizing storm response and recovery using the beach change envelope : Fire Island, New York
    (Elsevier, 2017-08-03) Brenner, Owen T. ; Lentz, Erika E. ; Hapke, Cheryl J. ; Henderson, Rachel E. ; Wilson, Kat E. ; Nelson, Timothy R.
    Hurricane Sandy at Fire Island, New York presented unique challenges in the quantification of storm impacts using traditional metrics of coastal change, wherein measured changes (shoreline, dune crest, and volume change) did not fully reflect the substantial changes in sediment redistribution following the storm. We used a time series of beach profile data at Fire Island, New York to define a new contour-based morphologic change metric, the Beach Change Envelope (BCE). The BCE quantifies changes to the upper portion of the beach likely to sustain measurable impacts from storm waves and capture a variety of storm and post-storm beach states. We evaluated the ability of the BCE to characterize cycles of beach change by relating it to a conceptual beach recovery regime, and demonstrated that BCE width and BCE height from the profile time series correlate well with established stages of recovery. We also investigated additional applications of this metric to capture impacts from storms and human modification by applying it to several post-storm historical datasets in which impacts varied considerably; Nor'Ida (2009), Hurricane Irene (2011), Hurricane Sandy (2012), and a 2009 community replenishment. In each case, the BCE captured distinctive upper beach morphologic change characteristic of these different beach building and erosional events. Analysis of the beach state at multiple profile locations showed spatial trends in recovery consistent with recent morphologic island evolution, which other studies have linked with sediment availability and the geologic framework. Ultimately we demonstrate a new way of more effectively characterizing beach response and recovery cycles to evaluate change along sandy coasts.
  • Article
    Decoupling processes and scales of shoreline morphodynamics
    (Elsevier, 2016-08-24) Hapke, Cheryl J. ; Plant, Nathaniel G. ; Henderson, Rachel E. ; Schwab, William C. ; Nelson, Timothy R.
    Behavior of coastal systems on time scales ranging from single storm events to years and decades is controlled by both small-scale sediment transport processes and large-scale geologic, oceanographic, and morphologic processes. Improved understanding of coastal behavior at multiple time scales is required for refining models that predict potential erosion hazards and for coastal management planning and decision-making. Here we investigate the primary controls on shoreline response along a geologically-variable barrier island on time scales resolving extreme storms and decadal variations over a period of nearly one century. An empirical orthogonal function analysis is applied to a time series of shoreline positions at Fire Island, NY to identify patterns of shoreline variance along the length of the island. We establish that there are separable patterns of shoreline behavior that represent response to oceanographic forcing as well as patterns that are not explained by this forcing. The dominant shoreline behavior occurs over large length scales in the form of alternating episodes of shoreline retreat and advance, presumably in response to storms cycles. Two secondary responses include long-term response that is correlated to known geologic variations of the island and the other reflects geomorphic patterns with medium length scale. Our study also includes the response to Hurricane Sandy and a period of post-storm recovery. It was expected that the impacts from Hurricane Sandy would disrupt long-term trends and spatial patterns. We found that the response to Sandy at Fire Island is not notable or distinguishable from several other large storms of the prior decade.
  • Article
    Modification of the Quaternary stratigraphic framework of the inner-continental shelf by Holocene marine transgression : an example offshore of Fire Island, New York
    (Elsevier, 2014-07-03) Schwab, William C. ; Baldwin, Wayne E. ; Denny, Jane F. ; Hapke, Cheryl J. ; Gayes, Paul T. ; List, Jeffrey H. ; Warner, John C.
    The inner-continental shelf off Fire Island, New York was mapped in 2011 using interferometric sonar and high-resolution chirp seismic-reflection systems. The area mapped is approximately 50 km long by 8 km wide, extending from Moriches Inlet to Fire Island Inlet in water depths ranging from 8 to 32 m. The morphology of this inner-continental shelf region and modern sediment distribution patterns are determined by erosion of Pleistocene glaciofluvial sediments during the ongoing Holocene marine transgression; much of the shelf is thus an actively forming ravinement surface. Remnants of a Pleistocene outwash lobe define a submerged headland offshore of central Fire Island. East of the submerged headland, relatively older Pleistocene outwash is exposed over much of the inner-continental shelf and covered by asymmetric, sorted bedforms interpreted to indicate erosion and westward transport of reworked sediment. Erosion of the eastern flank of the submerged Pleistocene headland over the last ~ 8000 years yielded an abundance of modern sand that was transported westward and reworked into a field of shoreface-attached ridges offshore of western Fire Island. West of the submerged headland, erosion of Pleistocene outwash continues in troughs between the sand ridges, resulting in modification of the lower shoreface. Comparison of the modern sand ridge morphology with the morphology of the underlying ravinement surface suggests that the sand ridges have moved a minimum of ~ 1000 m westward since formation. Comparison of modern sediment thickness mapped in 1996–1997 and 2011 allows speculation that the nearshore/shoreface sedimentary deposit has gained sediment at the expense of deflation of the sand ridges.
  • Article
    Predicting coastal cliff erosion using a Bayesian probabilistic model
    (Elsevier B.V., 2010-10-10) Hapke, Cheryl J. ; Plant, Nathaniel G.
    Regional coastal cliff retreat is difficult to model due to the episodic nature of failures and the along-shore variability of retreat events. There is a growing demand, however, for predictive models that can be used to forecast areas vulnerable to coastal erosion hazards. Increasingly, probabilistic models are being employed that require data sets of high temporal density to define the joint probability density function that relates forcing variables (e.g. wave conditions) and initial conditions (e.g. cliff geometry) to erosion events. In this study we use a multi-parameter Bayesian network to investigate correlations between key variables that control and influence variations in cliff retreat processes. The network uses Bayesian statistical methods to estimate event probabilities using existing observations. Within this framework, we forecast the spatial distribution of cliff retreat along two stretches of cliffed coast in Southern California. The input parameters are the height and slope of the cliff, a descriptor of material strength based on the dominant cliff-forming lithology, and the long-term cliff erosion rate that represents prior behavior. The model is forced using predicted wave impact hours. Results demonstrate that the Bayesian approach is well-suited to the forward modeling of coastal cliff retreat, with the correct outcomes forecast in 70–90% of the modeled transects. The model also performs well in identifying specific locations of high cliff erosion, thus providing a foundation for hazard mapping. This approach can be employed to predict cliff erosion at time-scales ranging from storm events to the impacts of sea-level rise at the century-scale.