Geist
Eric L.
Geist
Eric L.
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ArticleA framework for the probabilistic analysis of meteotsunamis(Springer, 2014-06-19) Geist, Eric L. ; ten Brink, Uri S. ; Gove, MatthewA probabilistic technique is developed to assess the hazard from meteotsunamis. Meteotsunamis are unusual sea-level events, generated when the speed of an atmospheric pressure or wind disturbance is comparable to the phase speed of long waves in the ocean. A general aggregation equation is proposed for the probabilistic analysis, based on previous frameworks established for both tsunamis and storm surges, incorporating different sources and source parameters of meteotsunamis. Parameterization of atmospheric disturbances and numerical modeling is performed for the computation of maximum meteotsunami wave amplitudes near the coast. A historical record of pressure disturbances is used to establish a continuous analytic distribution of each parameter as well as the overall Poisson rate of occurrence. A demonstration study is presented for the northeast U.S. in which only isolated atmospheric pressure disturbances from squall lines and derechos are considered. For this study, Automated Surface Observing System stations are used to determine the historical parameters of squall lines from 2000 to 2013. The probabilistic equations are implemented using a Monte Carlo scheme, where a synthetic catalog of squall lines is compiled by sampling the parameter distributions. For each entry in the catalog, ocean wave amplitudes are computed using a numerical hydrodynamic model. Aggregation of the results from the Monte Carlo scheme results in a meteotsunami hazard curve that plots the annualized rate of exceedance with respect to maximum event amplitude for a particular location along the coast. Results from using multiple synthetic catalogs, resampled from the parent parameter distributions, yield mean and quantile hazard curves. Further refinements and improvements for probabilistic analysis of meteotsunamis are discussed.
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ArticleSubmarine landslide as the source for the October 11, 1918 Mona Passage tsunami : observations and modeling(Elsevier B.V., 2008-05-17) Lopez-Venegas, Alberto M. ; ten Brink, Uri S. ; Geist, Eric L.The October 11, 1918 ML 7.5 earthquake in the Mona Passage between Hispaniola and Puerto Rico generated a local tsunami that claimed approximately 100 lives along the western coast of Puerto Rico. The area affected by this tsunami is now significantly more populated. Newly acquired high-resolution bathymetry and seismic reflection lines in the Mona Passage show a fresh submarine landslide 15 km northwest of Rinćon in northwestern Puerto Rico and in the vicinity of the first published earthquake epicenter. The landslide area is approximately 76 km2 and probably displaced a total volume of 10 km3. The landslide's headscarp is at a water depth of 1200 m, with the debris flow extending to a water depth of 4200 m. Submarine telegraph cables were reported cut by a landslide in this area following the earthquake, further suggesting that the landslide was the result of the October 11, 1918 earthquake. On the other hand, the location of the previously suggested source of the 1918 tsunami, a normal fault along the east wall of Mona Rift, does not show recent seafloor rupture. Using the extended, weakly non-linear hydrodynamic equations implemented in the program COULWAVE, we modeled the tsunami as generated by a landslide with a duration of 325 s (corresponding to an average speed of ~ 27 m/s) and with the observed dimensions and location. Calculated marigrams show a leading depression wave followed by a maximum positive amplitude in agreement with the reported polarity, relative amplitudes, and arrival times. Our results suggest this newly-identified landslide, which was likely triggered by the 1918 earthquake, was the primary cause of the October 11, 1918 tsunami and not the earthquake itself. Results from this study should be useful to help discern poorly constrained tsunami sources in other case studies.
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ArticleEarthquake magnitude distributions on northern Caribbean faults from combinatorial optimization models(American Geophysical Union, 2021-10-11) Geist, Eric L. ; ten Brink, Uri S.On-fault earthquake magnitude distributions are calculated for northern Caribbean faults using estimates of fault slip and regional seismicity parameters. Integer programming, a combinatorial optimization method, is used to determine the optimal spatial arrangement of earthquakes sampled from a truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution that minimizes the global misfit in slip rates on a complex fault system. Slip rates and their uncertainty on major faults are derived from a previously published GPS block model for the region, with fault traces determined from offshore geophysical mapping and previously published onshore studies. The optimal spatial arrangement of the sampled earthquakes is compared with the 500-year history of earthquake observations. Rupture segmentation of the subduction interface along the Hispaniola-Puerto Rico Trench (PRT) fault and seismic coupling on the PRT fault appear to exert the primary control over this spatial arrangement. Introducing a rupture barrier for the Hispaniola-PRT fault northwest of Mona Passage, based on geophysical and seismicity observations, and assigning a low slip rate of 2 mm/yr on the PRT fault are most consistent with historical earthquakes in the region. The addition of low slip-rate secondary faults as well as segmentation of the Hispaniola and Septentrional strike-slip fault improves the consistency with historical seismicity. An important observation from the modeling is that varying the slip rate on the PRT fault and different segmentation scenarios result in significant changes to the optimal magnitude distribution on faults farther away. In general, optimal on-fault magnitude distributions are more complex and inter-dependent than is typically assumed in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis.
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ArticleSize distribution of submarine landslides and its implication to tsunami hazard in Puerto Rico(American Geophysical Union, 2006-06-13) ten Brink, Uri S. ; Geist, Eric L. ; Andrews, Brian D.We have established for the first time a size frequency distribution for carbonate submarine slope failures. Using detailed bathymetry along the northern edge of the carbonate platform north of Puerto Rico, we show that the cumulative distribution of slope failure volumes follows a power-law distribution. The power-law exponent of this distribution is similar to those for rock falls on land, commensurate with their interpreted failure mode. The carbonate volume distribution and its associated volume-area relationship are significantly different from those for clay-rich debris lobes in the Storegga slide, Norway. Coupling this relationship with tsunami simulations allows an estimate of the maximum tsunami runup and the maximum number of potentially damaging tsunamis from landslides to the north shore of Puerto Rico.
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ArticleHydrodynamic modeling of tsunamis from the Currituck landslide(Elsevier B.V., 2008-10-18) Geist, Eric L. ; Lynett, Patrick J. ; Chaytor, Jason D.Tsunami generation from the Currituck landslide offshore North Carolina and propagation of waves toward the U.S. coastline are modeled based on recent geotechnical analysis of slide movement. A long and intermediate wave modeling package (COULWAVE) based on the non-linear Boussinesq equations are used to simulate the tsunami. This model includes procedures to incorporate bottom friction, wave breaking, and overland flow during runup. Potential tsunamis generated from the Currituck landslide are analyzed using four approaches: (1) tsunami wave history is calculated from several different scenarios indicated by geotechnical stability and mobility analyses; (2) a sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine the effects of both landslide failure duration during generation and bottom friction along the continental shelf during propagation; (3) wave history is calculated over a regional area to determine the propagation of energy oblique to the slide axis; and (4) a high-resolution 1D model is developed to accurately model wave breaking and the combined influence of nonlinearity and dispersion during nearshore propagation and runup. The primary source parameter that affects tsunami severity for this case study is landslide volume, with failure duration having a secondary influence. Bottom friction during propagation across the continental shelf has a strong influence on the attenuation of the tsunami during propagation. The high-resolution 1D model also indicates that the tsunami undergoes nonlinear fission prior to wave breaking, generating independent, short-period waves. Wave breaking occurs approximately 40–50 km offshore where a tsunami bore is formed that persists during runup. These analyses illustrate the complex nature of landslide tsunamis, necessitating the use of detailed landslide stability/mobility models and higher-order hydrodynamic models to determine their hazard.
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ArticleOffshore landslide hazard curves from mapped landslide size distributions(American Geophysical Union, 2019-04-01) Geist, Eric L. ; ten Brink, Uri S.We present a method to calculate landslide hazard curves along offshore margins based on size distributions of submarine landslides. The method utilizes 10 different continental margins that were mapped by high‐resolution multibeam sonar with landslide scar areas measured by a consistent Geographic Information System procedure. Statistical tests of several different probability distribution models indicate that the lognormal model is most appropriate for these siliciclastic environments, consistent with an earlier study of the U.S. Atlantic margin (Chaytor et al., 2009, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.margeo.2008.08.007). Parameter estimation is performed using the maximum likelihood technique, and confidence intervals are determined using likelihood profiles. Pairwise comparison of size distributions for the 10 margins indicates that the U.S. Atlantic and Queen Charlotte margins are different than most other margins. These margins represent end‐members, with the U.S. Atlantic margin having the highest mean scar area and the Queen Charlotte margin the lowest. We demonstrate that empirical, offshore landslide hazard curves can be developed from the landslide size distributions, if the duration of mapped landslide activity is known. This study indicates that the shape parameter of the size distribution is similar among all 10 margins, and thus, the shape of the hazard curves is also similar. Significant differences in hazard curves among the margins are therefore related to differences in mean sizes and, potentially, differences in the duration of landslide activity.
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ArticleAssessment of tsunami hazard to the U.S. Atlantic margin(Elsevier, 2014-03-22) ten Brink, Uri S. ; Chaytor, Jason D. ; Geist, Eric L. ; Brothers, Daniel S. ; Andrews, Brian D.Tsunami hazard is a very low-probability, but potentially high-risk natural hazard, posing unique challenges to scientists and policy makers trying to mitigate its impacts. These challenges are illustrated in this assessment of tsunami hazard to the U.S. Atlantic margin. Seismic activity along the U.S. Atlantic margin in general is low, and confirmed paleo-tsunami deposits have not yet been found, suggesting a very low rate of hazard. However, the devastating 1929 Grand Banks tsunami along the Atlantic margin of Canada shows that these events continue to occur. Densely populated areas, extensive industrial and port facilities, and the presence of ten nuclear power plants along the coast, make this region highly vulnerable to flooding by tsunamis and therefore even low-probability events need to be evaluated. We can presently draw several tentative conclusions regarding tsunami hazard to the U.S. Atlantic coast. Landslide tsunamis likely constitute the biggest tsunami hazard to the coast. Only a small number of landslides have so far been dated and they are generally older than 10,000 years. The geographical distribution of landslides along the margin is expected to be uneven and to depend on the distribution of seismic activity along the margin and on the geographical distribution of Pleistocene sediment. We do not see evidence that gas hydrate dissociation contributes to the generation of landslides along the U.S. Atlantic margin. Analysis of landslide statistics along the fluvial and glacial portions of the margin indicate that most of the landslides are translational, were probably initiated by seismic acceleration, and failed as aggregate slope failures. How tsunamis are generated from aggregate landslides remains however, unclear. Estimates of the recurrence interval of earthquakes along the continental slope may provide maximum estimates for the recurrence interval of landslide along the margin. Tsunamis caused by atmospheric disturbances and by coastal earthquakes may be more frequent than those generated by landslides, but their amplitudes are probably smaller. Among the possible far-field earthquake sources, only earthquakes located within the Gulf of Cadiz or west of the Tore-Madeira Rise are likely to affect the U.S. coast. It is questionable whether earthquakes on the Puerto Rico Trench are capable of producing a large enough tsunami that will affect the U.S. Atlantic coast. More information is needed to evaluate the seismic potential of the northern Cuba fold-and-thrust belt. The hazard from a volcano flank collapse in the Canary Islands is likely smaller than originally stated, and there is not enough information to evaluate the magnitude and frequency of flank collapse from the Azores Islands. Both deterministic and probabilistic methods to evaluate the tsunami hazard from the margin are available for application to the Atlantic margin, but their implementation requires more information than is currently available.