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ArticleClimate Process Team: improvement of ocean component of NOAA Climate Forecast System relevant to Madden-Julian Oscillation simulations(American Geophysical Union, 2021-10-04) Shinoda, Toshiaki ; Pei, Suyang ; Wang, Wanqiu ; Fu, Joshua X. ; Lien, Ren-Chieh ; Seo, Hyodae ; Soloviev, AlexanderGiven the increasing attention in forecasting weather and climate on the subseasonal time scale in recent years, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced to support Climate Process Teams (CPTs) which aim to improve the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) prediction by NOAA’s global forecasting models. Our team supported by this CPT program focuses primarily on the improvement of upper ocean mixing parameterization and air-sea fluxes in the NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFS). Major improvement includes the increase of the vertical resolution in the upper ocean and the implementation of General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM) in CFS. In addition to existing mixing schemes in GOTM, a newly developed scheme based on observations in the tropical ocean, with further modifications, has been included. A better performance of ocean component is demonstrated through one-dimensional ocean model and ocean general circulation model simulations validated by the comparison with in-situ observations. These include a large sea surface temperature (SST) diurnal cycle during the MJO suppressed phase, intraseasonal SST variations associated with the MJO, ocean response to atmospheric cold pools, and deep cycle turbulence. Impact of the high-vertical resolution of ocean component on CFS simulation of MJO-associated ocean temperature variations is evident. Also, the magnitude of SST changes caused by high-resolution ocean component is sufficient to influence the skill of MJO prediction by CFS.
ArticleSubstantial sea surface temperature cooling in the Banda Sea associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the boreal winter of 2015(American Geophysical Union, 2021-05-30) Pei, Suyang ; Shinoda, Toshiaki ; Steffen, John D. ; Seo, HyodaeSubstantial (∼2°C) basin averaged sea surface temperature (SST) cooling in the Banda Sea occurred in less than a 14-day period during the 2015 boreal winter Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Such rapid and large cooling associated with the MJO has not been reported at least in the last two decades. Processes that control the substantial cooling during the 2015 MJO event are examined using high-resolution ocean reanalysis and one-dimensional (1-D) ocean model simulations. Previous studies suggest that MJO-induced SST variability in the Banda Sea is primarily controlled by surface heat flux. However, heat budget analysis of the model indicates that entrainment cooling produced by vertical mixing contributes more than surface heat flux for driving the basin-wide SST cooling during the 2015 event. Analysis of the ocean reanalysis further demonstrates that the prominent coastal upwelling around islands in the southern basin occurs near the end of the cooling period. The upwelled cold waters are advected by MJO-induced surface currents to a large area within the Banda Sea, which further maintains the basin-wide cold SST. These results are compared with another MJO-driven substantial cooling event during the boreal winter of 2007 in which the cooling is mostly driven by surface heat flux. Sensitivity experiments, in which initial temperature conditions for the two events are replaced by each other, demonstrate that the elevated thermocline associated with the 2015 strong El Niño is largely responsible for the intensified cooling generated by the vertical mixing with colder subsurface waters.