Brodie
Stephanie
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Stephanie
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ArticleObservational needs supporting marine ecosystems modeling and forecasting: from the global ocean to regional and coastal systems(Frontiers Media, 2019-10-15) Capotondi, Antonietta ; Jacox, Michael ; Bowler, Chris ; Kavanaugh, Maria T. ; Lehodey, Patrick ; Barrie, Daniel ; Brodie, Stephanie ; Chaffron, Samuel ; Cheng, Wei ; Dias, Daniela F. ; Eveillard, Damien ; Guidi, Lionel ; Iudicone, Daniele ; Lovenduski, Nicole S. ; Nye, Janet A. ; Ortiz, Ivonne ; Pirhalla, Douglas ; Pozo Buil, Mercedes ; Saba, Vincent S. ; Sheridan, Scott ; Siedlecki, Samantha A. ; Subramanian, Aneesh C. ; de Vargas, Colomban ; Di Lorenzo, Emanuele ; Doney, Scott C. ; Hermann, Albert J. ; Joyce, Terrence M. ; Merrifield, Mark ; Miller, Arthur J. ; Not, Fabrice ; Pesant, StephaneMany coastal areas host rich marine ecosystems and are also centers of economic activities, including fishing, shipping and recreation. Due to the socioeconomic and ecological importance of these areas, predicting relevant indicators of the ecosystem state on sub-seasonal to interannual timescales is gaining increasing attention. Depending on the application, forecasts may be sought for variables and indicators spanning physics (e.g., sea level, temperature, currents), chemistry (e.g., nutrients, oxygen, pH), and biology (from viruses to top predators). Many components of the marine ecosystem are known to be influenced by leading modes of climate variability, which provide a physical basis for predictability. However, prediction capabilities remain limited by the lack of a clear understanding of the physical and biological processes involved, as well as by insufficient observations for forecast initialization and verification. The situation is further complicated by the influence of climate change on ocean conditions along coastal areas, including sea level rise, increased stratification, and shoaling of oxygen minimum zones. Observations are thus vital to all aspects of marine forecasting: statistical and/or dynamical model development, forecast initialization, and forecast validation, each of which has different observational requirements, which may be also specific to the study region. Here, we use examples from United States (U.S.) coastal applications to identify and describe the key requirements for an observational network that is needed to facilitate improved process understanding, as well as for sustaining operational ecosystem forecasting. We also describe new holistic observational approaches, e.g., approaches based on acoustics, inspired by Tara Oceans or by landscape ecology, which have the potential to support and expand ecosystem modeling and forecasting activities by bridging global and local observations.
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ArticleSeasonal-to-interannual prediction of North American coastal marine ecosystems: forecast methods, mechanisms of predictability, and priority developments(Elsevier, 2020-02-20) Jacox, Michael ; Alexander, Michael A. ; Siedlecki, Samantha A. ; Chen, Ke ; Kwon, Young-Oh ; Brodie, Stephanie ; Ortiz, Ivonne ; Tommasi, Desiree ; Widlansky, Matthew J. ; Barrie, Daniel ; Capotondi, Antonietta ; Cheng, Wei ; Di Lorenzo, Emanuele ; Edwards, Christopher ; Fiechter, Jerome ; Fratantoni, Paula S. ; Hazen, Elliott L. ; Hermann, Albert J. ; Kumar, Arun ; Miller, Arthur J. ; Pirhalla, Douglas ; Pozo Buil, Mercedes ; Ray, Sulagna ; Sheridan, Scott ; Subramanian, Aneesh C. ; Thompson, Philip ; Thorne, Lesley ; Annamalai, Hariharasubramanian ; Aydin, Kerim ; Bograd, Steven ; Griffis, Roger B. ; Kearney, Kelly ; Kim, Hyemi ; Mariotti, Annarita ; Merrifield, Mark ; Rykaczewski, Ryan R.Marine ecosystem forecasting is an area of active research and rapid development. Promise has been shown for skillful prediction of physical, biogeochemical, and ecological variables on a range of timescales, suggesting potential for forecasts to aid in the management of living marine resources and coastal communities. However, the mechanisms underlying forecast skill in marine ecosystems are often poorly understood, and many forecasts, especially for biological variables, rely on empirical statistical relationships developed from historical observations. Here, we review statistical and dynamical marine ecosystem forecasting methods and highlight examples of their application along U.S. coastlines for seasonal-to-interannual (1–24 month) prediction of properties ranging from coastal sea level to marine top predator distributions. We then describe known mechanisms governing marine ecosystem predictability and how they have been used in forecasts to date. These mechanisms include physical atmospheric and oceanic processes, biogeochemical and ecological responses to physical forcing, and intrinsic characteristics of species themselves. In reviewing the state of the knowledge on forecasting techniques and mechanisms underlying marine ecosystem predictability, we aim to facilitate forecast development and uptake by (i) identifying methods and processes that can be exploited for development of skillful regional forecasts, (ii) informing priorities for forecast development and verification, and (iii) improving understanding of conditional forecast skill (i.e., a priori knowledge of whether a forecast is likely to be skillful). While we focus primarily on coastal marine ecosystems surrounding North America (and the U.S. in particular), we detail forecast methods, physical and biological mechanisms, and priority developments that are globally relevant.
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ArticleA decade of incorporating social sciences in the Integrated Marine Biosphere Research Project (IMBeR): much done, much to do?(Frontiers Media, 2021-06-21) van Putten, Ingrid ; Kelly, Rachel ; Cavanagh, Rachel D. ; Murphy, Eugene J. ; Breckwoldt, Annette ; Brodie, Stephanie ; Cvitanovic, Christopher ; Dickey-Collas, Mark ; Maddison, Lisa ; Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica ; Arrizabalaga, Haritz ; Azetsu-Scott, Kumiko ; Beckley, Lynnath E. ; Bellerby, Richard G. J. ; Constable, Andrew ; Cowie, Greg ; Evans, Karen ; Glaser, Marion ; Hall, Julie A. ; Hobday, Alistair J. ; Johnston, Nadine M. ; Llopiz, Joel K. ; Mueter, Franz ; Muller-Karger, Frank E. ; Weng, Kevin ; Wolf-Gladrow, Dieter A. ; Xavier, José C.Successful management and mitigation of marine challenges depends on cooperation and knowledge sharing which often occurs across culturally diverse geographic regions. Global ocean science collaboration is therefore essential for developing global solutions. Building effective global research networks that can enable collaboration also need to ensure inter- and transdisciplinary research approaches to tackle complex marine socio-ecological challenges. To understand the contribution of interdisciplinary global research networks to solving these complex challenges, we use the Integrated Marine Biosphere Research (IMBeR) project as a case study. We investigated the diversity and characteristics of 1,827 scientists from 11 global regions who were attendees at different IMBeR global science engagement opportunities since 2009. We also determined the role of social science engagement in natural science based regional programmes (using key informants) and identified the potential for enhanced collaboration in the future. Event attendees were predominantly from western Europe, North America, and East Asia. But overall, in the global network, there was growing participation by females, students and early career researchers, and social scientists, thus assisting in moving toward interdisciplinarity in IMBeR research. The mainly natural science oriented regional programmes showed mixed success in engaging and collaborating with social scientists. This was mostly attributed to the largely natural science (i.e., biological, physical) goals and agendas of the programmes, and the lack of institutional support and push to initiate connections with social science. Recognising that social science research may not be relevant to all the aims and activities of all regional programmes, all researchers however, recognised the (potential) benefits of interdisciplinarity, which included broadening scientists’ understanding and perspectives, developing connections and interlinkages, and making science more useful. Pathways to achieve progress in regional programmes fell into four groups: specific funding, events to come together, within-programme-reflections, and social science champions. Future research programmes should have a strategic plan to be truly interdisciplinary, engaging natural and social sciences, as well as aiding early career professionals to actively engage in such programmes.
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ArticleDivergent responses of highly migratory species to climate change in the California Current(Wiley Open Access, 2023-12-08) Lezama-Ochoa, Nerea ; Brodie, Stephanie ; Welch, Heather ; Jacox, Michael G. ; Pozo Buil, Mercedes ; Fiechter, Jerome ; Cimino, Megan A. ; Muhling, Barbara A. ; Dewar, Heidi ; Becker, Elizabeth A. ; Forney, Karin A. ; Costa, Daniel ; Benson, Scott R. ; Farchadi, Nima ; Braun, Camrin D. ; Lewison, Rebecca ; Bograd, Steven J. ; Hazen, Elliott L.Marine biodiversity faces unprecedented threats from anthropogenic climate change. Ecosystem responses to climate change have exhibited substantial variability in the direction and magnitude of redistribution, posing challenges for developing effective climate-adaptive marine management strategies.
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ArticleWidespread habitat loss and redistribution of marine top predators in a changing ocean(American Association for the Advancement of Science, 2023-08-09) Braun, Camrin D. ; Lezama-Ochoa, Nerea ; Farchadi, Nima ; Arostegui, Martin C. ; Alexander, Michael ; Allyn, Andrew ; Bograd, Steven J. ; Brodie, Stephanie ; Crear, Daniel P. ; Curtis, Tobey H. ; Hazen, Elliott L. ; Kerney, Alex ; Mills, Katherine E. ; Pugh, Dylan ; Scott, James D. ; Welch, Heather ; Young-Morse, Riley ; Lewison, Rebecca L.The Northwest Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico are among the fastest warming ocean regions, a trend that is expected to continue through this century with far-reaching implications for marine ecosystems. We examine the distribution of 12 highly migratory top predator species using predictive models and project expected habitat changes using downscaled climate models. Our models predict widespread losses of suitable habitat for most species, concurrent with substantial northward displacement of core habitats >500 km. These changes include up to >70% loss of suitable habitat area for some commercially and ecologically important species. We also identify predicted hot spots of multi-species habitat loss focused offshore of the U.S. Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts. For several species, the predicted changes are already underway, which are likely to have substantial impacts on the efficacy of static regulatory frameworks used to manage highly migratory species. The ongoing and projected effects of climate change highlight the urgent need to adaptively and proactively manage dynamic marine ecosystems.
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ArticleDynamic human, oceanographic, and ecological factors mediate transboundary fishery overlap across the Pacific high seas(Wiley, 2023-09-19) Frawley, Timothy H. ; Muhling, Barbara A. ; Brodie, Stephanie ; Blondin, Hannah ; Welch, Heather ; Arostegui, Martin C. ; Bograd, Steven J. ; Braun, Camrin D. ; Cimino, Megan A.The management and conservation of tuna and other transboundary marine species have to date been limited by an incomplete understanding of the oceanographic, ecological and socioeconomic factors mediating fishery overlap and interactions, and how these factors vary across expansive, open ocean habitats. Despite advances in fisheries monitoring and biologging technology, few attempts have been made to conduct integrated ecological analyses at basin scales relevant to pelagic fisheries and the highly migratory species they target. Here, we use vessel tracking data, archival tags, observer records, and machine learning to examine inter- and intra-annual variability in fisheries overlap (2013–2020) of five pelagic longline fishing fleets with North Pacific albacore tuna (Thunnus alalunga, Scombridae). Although progressive declines in catch and biomass have been observed over the past several decades, the North Pacific albacore is one of the only Pacific tuna stocks primarily targeted by pelagic longlines not currently listed as overfished or experiencing overfishing. We find that fishery overlap varies significantly across time and space as mediated by (1) differences in habitat preferences between juvenile and adult albacore; (2) variation of oceanographic features known to aggregate pelagic biomass; and (3) the different spatial niches targeted by shallow-set and deep-set longline fishing gear. These findings may have significant implications for stock assessment in this and other transboundary fishery systems, particularly the reliance on fishery-dependent data to index abundance. Indeed, we argue that additional consideration of how overlap, catchability, and size selectivity parameters vary over time and space may be required to ensure the development of robust, equitable, and climate-resilient harvest control rules.
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ArticleMarine heatwaves redistribute pelagic fishing fleets(Wiley, 2024-04-04) Farchadi, Nima ; Welch, Heather ; Braun, Camrin D. ; Allyn, Andrew J. ; Bograd, Steven J. ; Brodie, Stephanie ; Hazen, Elliott L. ; Kerney, Alex ; Lezama-Ochoa, Nerea ; Mills, Katherine E. ; Pugh, Dylan ; Young-Morse, Riley ; Lewison, Rebecca L.Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have measurable impacts on marine ecosystems and reliant fisheries and associated communities. However, how MHWs translate to changes in fishing opportunities and the displacement of fishing fleets remains poorly understood. Using fishing vessel tracking data from the automatic identification system (AIS), we developed vessel distribution models for two pelagic fisheries targeting highly migratory species, the U.S. Atlantic longline and Pacific troll fleets, to understand how MHW properties (intensity, size, and duration) influence core fishing grounds and fleet displacement. For both fleets, MHW size had the largest influence on fishing ground area with northern fishing grounds gaining and southern fishing grounds decreasing in area. However, fleet displacement in response to MHWs varied between coasts, as the Atlantic longline fleet displaced farther in southern regions whereas the most northern and southern regions of the Pacific troll fleet shifted farther. Characterizing fishing fleet responses to these anomalous conditions can help identify regional vulnerabilities under future extreme events and aid in supporting climate-readiness and resilience in pelagic fisheries.