Hakkinen Sirpa M. A.

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Sirpa M. A.

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  • Article
    Remote climate forcing of decadal-scale regime shifts in Northwest Atlantic shelf ecosystems
    (Association for the Sciences of Limnology and Oceanography, 2013-05) Greene, Charles H. ; Meyer-Gutbrod, Erin ; Monger, Bruce C. ; McGarry, Louise P. ; Pershing, Andrew J. ; Belkin, Igor M. ; Fratantoni, Paula S. ; Mountain, David G. ; Pickart, Robert S. ; Proshutinsky, Andrey ; Ji, Rubao ; Bisagni, James J. ; Hakkinen, Sirpa M. A. ; Haidvogel, Dale B. ; Wang, Jia ; Head, Erica ; Smith, Peter ; Reid, Philip C. ; Conversi, Alessandra
    Decadal-scale regime shifts in Northwest Atlantic shelf ecosystems can be remotely forced by climate-associated atmosphere–ocean interactions in the North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean Basins. This remote climate forcing is mediated primarily by basin- and hemispheric-scale changes in ocean circulation. We review and synthesize results from process-oriented field studies and retrospective analyses of time-series data to document the linkages between climate, ocean circulation, and ecosystem dynamics. Bottom-up forcing associated with climate plays a prominent role in the dynamics of these ecosystems, comparable in importance to that of top-down forcing associated with commercial fishing. A broad perspective, one encompassing the effects of basin- and hemispheric-scale climate processes on marine ecosystems, will be critical to the sustainable management of marine living resources in the Northwest Atlantic.
  • Article
    Sea ice drift in the Arctic since the 1950s
    (American Geophysical Union, 2008-10-03) Hakkinen, Sirpa M. A. ; Proshutinsky, Andrey ; Ashik, Igor M.
    Sea ice drift data (from Russian North Pole stations, various ice camps, and the International Arctic Buoy Program) and surface wind stress data from the NCAR/NCEP Reanalysis are analyzed to determine their long-term trends and causality. The study finds that both parameters (ice drift and wind stress) show gradual acceleration over last 50 years. Significant positive trends are present in both winter and summer data. The major cause of observed positive trends is increasing Arctic storm activity over the Transpolar Drift Stream caused by a shift of storm tracks toward higher latitudes. It is speculated, with some observational evidence, that the increased stirring of the ocean by winds could hasten the transition of the Arctic toward a weakly stratified ocean with a potential for deep convection and a new sink for atmospheric CO2.
  • Article
    Secular sea level change in the Russian sector of the Arctic Ocean
    (American Geophysical Union, 2004-03-25) Proshutinsky, Andrey ; Ashik, Igor M. ; Dvorkin, E. N. ; Hakkinen, Sirpa M. A. ; Krishfield, Richard A. ; Peltier, W. R.
    Sea level is a natural integral indicator of climate variability. It reflects changes in practically all dynamic and thermodynamic processes of terrestrial, oceanic, atmospheric, and cryospheric origin. The use of estimates of sea level rise as an indicator of climate change therefore incurs the difficulty that the inferred sea level change is the net result of many individual effects of environmental forcing. Since some of these effects may offset others, the cause of the sea level response to climate change remains somewhat uncertain. This paper is focused on an attempt to provide first-order answers to two questions, namely, what is the rate of sea level change in the Arctic Ocean, and furthermore, what is the role of each of the individual contributing factors to observed Arctic Ocean sea level change? In seeking answers to these questions we have discovered that during the period 1954–1989 the observed sea level over the Russian sector of the Arctic Ocean is rising at a rate of approximately 0.123 cm yr−1 and that after correction for the process of glacial isostatic adjustment this rate is approximately 0.185 cm yr−1. There are two major causes of this rise. The first is associated with the steric effect of ocean expansion. This effect is responsible for a contribution of approximately 0.064 cm yr−1 to the total rate of rise (35%). The second most important factor is related to the ongoing decrease of sea level atmospheric pressure over the Arctic Ocean, which contributes 0.056 cm yr−1, or approximately 30% of the net positive sea level trend. A third contribution to the sea level increase involves wind action and the increase of cyclonic winds over the Arctic Ocean, which leads to sea level rise at a rate of 0.018 cm yr−1 or approximately 10% of the total. The combined effect of the sea level rise due to an increase of river runoff and the sea level fall due to a negative trend in precipitation minus evaporation over the ocean is close to 0. For the Russian sector of the Arctic Ocean it therefore appears that approximately 25% of the trend of 0.185 cm yr−1, a contribution of 0.048 cm yr−1, may be due to the effect of increasing Arctic Ocean mass.
  • Article
    Sea level variability in the Arctic Ocean from AOMIP models
    (American Geophysical Union, 2007-04-26) Proshutinsky, Andrey ; Ashik, Igor M. ; Hakkinen, Sirpa M. A. ; Hunke, Elizabeth C. ; Krishfield, Richard A. ; Maltrud, Mathew E. ; Maslowski, Wieslaw ; Zhang, Jinlun
    Monthly sea levels from five Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (AOMIP) models are analyzed and validated against observations in the Arctic Ocean. The AOMIP models are able to simulate variability of sea level reasonably well, but several improvements are needed to reduce model errors. It is suggested that the models will improve if their domains have a minimum depth less than 10 m. It is also recommended to take into account forcing associated with atmospheric loading, fast ice, and volume water fluxes representing Bering Strait inflow and river runoff. Several aspects of sea level variability in the Arctic Ocean are investigated based on updated observed sea level time series. The observed rate of sea level rise corrected for the glacial isostatic adjustment at 9 stations in the Kara, Laptev, and East Siberian seas for 1954–2006 is estimated as 0.250 cm/yr. There is a well pronounced decadal variability in the observed sea level time series. The 5-year running mean sea level signal correlates well with the annual Arctic Oscillation (AO) index and the sea level atmospheric pressure (SLP) at coastal stations and the North Pole. For 1954–2000 all model results reflect this correlation very well, indicating that the long-term model forcing and model reaction to the forcing are correct. Consistent with the influences of AO-driven processes, the sea level in the Arctic Ocean dropped significantly after 1990 and increased after the circulation regime changed from cyclonic to anticyclonic in 1997. In contrast, from 2000 to 2006 the sea level rose despite the stabilization of the AO index at its lowest values after 2000.
  • Article
    Freshwater content variability in the Arctic Ocean
    (American Geophysical Union, 2004-03-31) Hakkinen, Sirpa M. A. ; Proshutinsky, Andrey
    Arctic Ocean model simulations have revealed that the Arctic Ocean has a basin-wide oscillation with cyclonic and anticyclonic circulation anomalies (Arctic Ocean Oscillation (AOO)) that has a prominent decadal variability [Proshutinsky and Johnson, 1997]. This study explores how the simulated AOO affects the Arctic Ocean stratification and its relationship to the sea ice cover variations. The simulation uses the Princeton Ocean Model coupled to sea ice [Häkkinen and Mellor, 1992; Häkkinen, 1999]. The surface forcing is based on National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis and its climatology, of which the latter is used to force the model spin-up phase. Our focus is to investigate the competition between ocean dynamics and ice formation/melt on the Arctic basin-wide freshwater balance. We find that changes in the Atlantic water inflow can explain almost all of the simulated freshwater anomalies in the main Arctic basin. The Atlantic water inflow anomalies are an essential part of AOO, which is the wind driven barotropic response to the Arctic Oscillation (AO). The baroclinic response to AO, such as Ekman pumping in the Beaufort Gyre, and ice melt/freeze anomalies in response to AO are less significant considering the whole Arctic freshwater balance.
  • Article
    Evaluation of Arctic sea ice thickness simulated by Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project models
    (American Geophysical Union, 2012-03-15) Johnson, Mark ; Proshutinsky, Andrey ; Aksenov, Yevgeny ; Nguyen, An T. ; Lindsay, Ron ; Haas, Christian ; Zhang, Jinlun ; Diansky, Nikolay ; Kwok, Ron ; Maslowski, Wieslaw ; Hakkinen, Sirpa M. A. ; Ashik, Igor M. ; de Cuevas, Beverly
    Six Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project model simulations are compared with estimates of sea ice thickness derived from pan-Arctic satellite freeboard measurements (2004–2008); airborne electromagnetic measurements (2001–2009); ice draft data from moored instruments in Fram Strait, the Greenland Sea, and the Beaufort Sea (1992–2008) and from submarines (1975–2000); and drill hole data from the Arctic basin, Laptev, and East Siberian marginal seas (1982–1986) and coastal stations (1998–2009). Despite an assessment of six models that differ in numerical methods, resolution, domain, forcing, and boundary conditions, the models generally overestimate the thickness of measured ice thinner than ∼2 m and underestimate the thickness of ice measured thicker than about ∼2 m. In the regions of flat immobile landfast ice (shallow Siberian Seas with depths less than 25–30 m), the models generally overestimate both the total observed sea ice thickness and rates of September and October ice growth from observations by more than 4 times and more than one standard deviation, respectively. The models do not reproduce conditions of fast ice formation and growth. Instead, the modeled fast ice is replaced with pack ice which drifts, generating ridges of increasing ice thickness, in addition to thermodynamic ice growth. Considering all observational data sets, the better correlations and smaller differences from observations are from the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Phase II and Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System models.
  • Article
    Recent Arctic climate change and its remote forcing of Northwest Atlantic shelf ecosystems
    (The Oceanography Society, 2012-09) Greene, Charles H. ; Monger, Bruce C. ; McGarry, Louise P. ; Connelly, Matthew D. ; Schnepf, Neesha R. ; Pershing, Andrew J. ; Belkin, Igor M. ; Fratantoni, Paula S. ; Mountain, David G. ; Pickart, Robert S. ; Ji, Rubao ; Bisagni, James J. ; Chen, Changsheng ; Hakkinen, Sirpa M. A. ; Haidvogel, Dale B. ; Wang, Jia ; Head, Erica ; Smith, Peter ; Conversi, Alessandra
    During recent decades, historically unprecedented changes have been observed in the Arctic as climate warming has increased precipitation, river discharge, and glacial as well as sea-ice melting. Additionally, shifts in the Arctic's atmospheric pressure field have altered surface winds, ocean circulation, and freshwater storage in the Beaufort Gyre. These processes have resulted in variable patterns of freshwater export from the Arctic Ocean, including the emergence of great salinity anomalies propagating throughout the North Atlantic. Here, we link these variable patterns of freshwater export from the Arctic Ocean to the regime shifts observed in Northwest Atlantic shelf ecosystems. Specifically, we hypothesize that the corresponding salinity anomalies, both negative and positive, alter the timing and extent of water-column stratification, thereby impacting the production and seasonal cycles of phytoplankton, zooplankton, and higher-trophic-level consumers. Should this hypothesis hold up to critical evaluation, it has the potential to fundamentally alter our current understanding of the processes forcing the dynamics of Northwest Atlantic shelf ecosystems.