Ecosystems Center
Permanent URI for this collection
The Ecosystems Center carries out research in ecosystems that range from the Arctic to the Antarctic, from Brazil to Martha’s Vineyard. In the Alaskan Arctic, scientists study the effect of warmer temperatures on tundra, stream and lake ecosystems. On the Arctic rivers of Eurasia, they measure how freshwater discharge is changing as the climate warms. On the western Antarctic peninsula, research focuses on the responses of the marine coastal ecosystem to rapid climate warming. In the western Amazon in Brazil, researchers assess how much the clearing of tropical forests will change the amount of greenhouse gas released into the atmosphere, while on the island of Martha’s Vineyard, scientists used controlled burns to restore coastal ecosystems. In central Massachusetts and in Abisko, Sweden, soil warming experiments are conducted to assess the forest’s response to climate warming. In northeastern Massachusetts, scientists study how changes in rural land use and urban development affect the flow of nutrients and organic matter into New England estuaries. In Boston Harbor, they measure the transfer of nitrogen from sediments to the water column as the harbor recovers from decades of sewage addition.
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ArticleClimate change and the presence of invasive species will threaten the persistence of the Mediterranean seagrass community(Elsevier, 2023-11-18)The Mediterranean Sea has been experiencing rapid increases in temperature and salinity triggering its tropicalization. Additionally, its connection with the Red Sea has been favouring the establishment of non-native species. In this study, we investigated the effects of predicted climate change and the introduction of invasive seagrass species (Halophila stipulacea) on the native Mediterranean seagrass community (Posidonia oceanica and Cymodocea nodosa) by applying a novel ecological and spatial model with different configurations and parameter settings based on a Cellular Automata (CA). The proposed models use a discrete (stepwise) representation of space and time by executing deterministic and probabilistic rules that develop complex dynamic processes. Model applications were run under two climate scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) projected from 2020 to 2100 in four different regions within the Mediterranean. Results indicate that the slow-growing P. oceanica will be highly vulnerable to climate change, suffering vast declines in its abundance. However, the results also show that western and colder areas of the Mediterranean Sea might represent refuge areas for this species. Cymodocea nodosa has been reported to exhibit resilience to predicted climate scenarios; however, it has shown habitat regression in the warmest predicted regions in the easternmost part of the basin. Our models indicate that H. stipulacea will thrive under projected climate scenarios, facilitating its spread across the basin. Also, H. stipulacea grew at the expense of C. nodosa, limiting the distribution of the latter, and eventually displacing this native species. Additionally, simulations demonstrated that areas from which P. oceanica meadows disappear would be partially covered by C. nodosa and H. stipulacea. These outcomes project that the Mediterranean seagrass community will experience a transition from long-lived, large and slow-growing species to small and fast-growing species as climate change progresses.
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ArticleThe microbial biodiversity at the archeological site of Tel Megiddo (Israel)(Frontiers Media, 2023-09-21)The ancient city of Tel Megiddo in the Jezreel Valley (Israel), which lasted from the Neolithic to the Iron Age, has been continuously excavated since 1903 and is now recognized as a World Heritage Site. The site features multiple ruins in various areas, including temples and stables, alongside modern constructions, and public access is allowed in designated areas. The site has been studied extensively since the last century; however, its microbiome has never been studied. We carried out the first survey of the microbiomes in Tel Megiddo. Our objectives were to study (i) the unique microbial community structure of the site, (ii) the variation in the microbial communities across areas, (iii) the similarity of the microbiomes to urban and archeological microbes, (iv) the presence and abundance of potential bio-corroding microbes, and (v) the presence and abundance of potentially pathogenic microbes.
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ArticleTransport and distributions of naturally and anthropogenically sourced trace metals and arsenic in submarine canyons(Elsevier, 2023-09-09)Continental margins play a key role in the cycling of natural and anthropogenic trace metals (TMs) as pathways at the interface between landmasses and deep ocean basins but also as sinks. Knowledge of how short-lived forcings alter the export dynamics of TMs is essential for our understanding of their fate in that setting. Here we report time series of particulate metal fluxes in three submarine canyons —namely Escombreras, Almeria and the Garrucha-Almanzora system— of the South-Western Mediterranean Sea. Our research focuses on combining multi-elemental TMs (Al, Fe, Ti, Co, Cu, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn) and As (a metalloid) contents of settling particles collected near the bottom by automated particle traps during one year, and seafloor sediment samples from below the traps. We assess the role of storms and bottom trawling in the off-shelf transport of particulate TMs and As, and the natural and anthropogenic contributions of TMs by using enrichment factors (EFs). The TM export fluxes and composition changed over the study period, from March 2015 to March 2016. TM fluxes increase in early spring 2015 in association with short-lived storm events and during calm months in the Garrucha-Almanzora Canyon system, likely due to sediment resuspension triggered by bottom trawling. In terms of composition, TMs in the sinking fluxes appear to be closely associated with lithogenic (Al, Fe and Ti) and authigenic (Mn) particles’ proxies. During storm events, the mass of settling particles in Escombreras and Almeria canyons was impoverished in Al, Fe, As, Co, Cu, Mn and Ni compared to other periods. The Garrucha-Almanzora Canyon system behaves differently as the above-described differences, are not observed there. Moreover, the TM composition of the sediments —with higher contents of Fe, Ti and several other TMs— in this canyon is barely tied to the composition of the settling particles. Finally, Cu and Zn contents, together with Pb in the northernmost Escombreras Canyon, are best explained by referring to anthropogenic sources. This work provides insights into the profound influence of the natural and anthropogenic forcings controlling the distributions and seasonal dynamics of particulate TMs and As in submarine canyons.
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ArticleEditorial: Rising stars in hydrothermal vents and cold seeps: 2021(Frontiers Media, 2023-10-06)Research in the ecology and biogeochemistry of hydrothermal vents and methane seeps are driven—just like all science—by the hard work of early career scientists. To highlight recent work and invaluable contributions of young scholars we wanted to specifically focus on this demographic group in this Research Topic. Thus, the first authors of all nine articles featured here are graduate students, postdocs, and assistant professors at the beginning of their career and almost all senior authors are early- or mid-career principal investigators. The articles featured here span a broad range of environments around the world, from the deep sea, via shallow marine regions to laboratory cultures, using a broad range of methods from biogeochemical measurements to multi-omics.
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ArticleResolving dynamic mineral-organic interactions in the rhizosphere by combining in-situ microsensors with plant-soil reactive transport modeling(Elsevier, 2023-06-24)Associations between minerals and organic matter represent one of the most important carbon storage mechanisms in soils. Plant roots are major sources of soil carbon, and resolving the dynamics and dominance of microbial consumption versus mineral sorption of root-derived carbon is critical to understanding soil carbon storage. Here we integrate in-situ rhizosphere microsensor and plant physiological measurements with a 3-D plant-soil reactive transport model to explore the fate of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the rhizosphere, particularly its microbial consumption and interaction with Fe oxide minerals. Over several days, microdialysis probes at the root-soil interface of growing Vicia faba roots in live soil, revealed clear diel patterns of DOC concentration in the pore water. Daytime DOC spikes coincided with peaks in leaf-level photosynthesis rates and were accompanied by declining redox potential and dissolved oxygen as well as increasing pH in the rhizosphere. Incorporating microsensor data into our modeling framework showed that the measured rapid loss of DOC after each mid-day spike could not be explained by consumption via aerobic respiration, nor via anaerobic respiration dominated by Fe oxide reduction. Rather, in the model, a large fraction of rhizosphere DOC was rapidly immobilized each day by adsorption to Fe oxides. Further, modeled microbial Fe reduction (fueled by DOC) did not mobilize significant organic carbon from Fe oxides during the day. Instead, the model predicted equilibrium desorption of organic carbon from Fe oxides at night. This new mechanistic modeling framework, which couples aboveground plant physiological measurements with non-destructive high-resolution monitoring of rhizosphere processes, has great potential for exploring the dynamics and balance of the various microbial reactions and mineral interactions controlling carbon storage in soils.
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ArticlePerspectives on artificial intelligence for predictions in ecohydrology(American Meteorological Society, 2023-10-09)In November 2021, the Artificial Intelligence for Earth System Predictability (AI4ESP) workshop was held, which involved hundreds of researchers from dozens of institutions. There were 17 sessions held at the workshop, including one on ecohydrology. The ecohydrology session included various breakout rooms that addressed specific topics, including 1) soils and belowground areas; 2) watersheds; 3) hydrology; 4) ecophysiology and plant hydraulics; 5) ecology; 6) extremes, disturbance and fire, and land-use and land-cover change; and 7) uncertainty quantification methods and techniques. In this paper, we investigate and report on the potential application of artificial intelligence and machine learning in ecohydrology, highlight outcomes of the ecohydrology session at the AI4ESP workshop, and provide visionary perspectives for future research in this area.
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ArticleWind-modulated groundwater discharge along a microtidal Arctic coastline(IOP Publishing, 2023-09-05)Groundwater discharge transports dissolved constituents to the ocean, affecting coastal carbon budgets and water quality. However, the magnitude and mechanisms of groundwater exchange along rapidly transitioning Arctic coastlines are largely unknown due to limited observations. Here, using first-of-its-kind coastal Arctic groundwater timeseries data, we evaluate the magnitude and drivers of groundwater discharge to Alaska's Beaufort Sea coast. Darcy flux calculations reveal temporally variable groundwater fluxes, ranging from −6.5 cm d−1 (recharge) to 14.1 cm d−1 (discharge), with fluctuations in groundwater discharge or aquifer recharge over diurnal and multiday timescales during the open-water season. The average flux during the monitoring period of 4.9 cm d−1 is in line with previous estimates, but the maximum discharge exceeds previous estimates by over an order-of-magnitude. While the diurnal fluctuations are small due to the microtidal conditions, multiday variability is large and drives sustained periods of aquifer recharge and groundwater discharge. Results show that wind-driven lagoon water level changes are the dominant mechanism of fluctuations in land–sea hydraulic head gradients and, in turn, groundwater discharge. Given the microtidal conditions, low topographic relief, and limited rainfall along the Beaufort Sea coast, we identify wind as an important forcing mechanism of coastal groundwater discharge and aquifer recharge with implications for nearshore biogeochemistry. This study provides insights into groundwater flux dynamics along this coastline over time and highlights an oft overlooked discharge and circulation mechanism with implications towards refining solute export estimates to coastal Arctic waters.
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ArticleEcosystem feedbacks constrain the effect of day‐to‐day weather variability on land–atmosphere carbon exchange(Wiley, 2023-08-30)Whole-ecosystem interactions and feedbacks constrain ecosystem responses to environmental change. The effects of these constraints on responses to climate trends and extreme weather events have been well studied. Here we examine how these constraints respond to changes in day-to-day weather variability without changing the long-term mean weather. Although environmental variability is recognized as a critical factor affecting ecological function, the effects of climate change on day-to-day weather variability and the resultant impacts on ecosystem function are still poorly understood. Changes in weather variability can alter the mean rates of individual ecological processes because many processes respond non-linearly to environmental drivers. We assessed how these individual-process responses to changes in day-to-day weather variability interact with one another at an ecosystem level. We examine responses of arctic tundra to changes in weather variability using stochastic simulations of daily temperature, precipitation, and light to drive a biogeochemical model. Changes in weather variability altered ecosystem carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus stocks and cycling rates in our model. However, responses of some processes (e.g., respiration) were inconsistent with expectations because ecosystem feedbacks can moderate, or even reverse, direct process responses to weather variability. More weather variability led to greater carbon losses from land to atmosphere; less variability led to higher carbon sequestration on land. The magnitude of modeled ecosystem response to weather variability was comparable to that predicted for the effects of climate mean trends by the end of the century.
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ArticleQuantification of discharge‐specific effects on dissolved organic matter export from major Arctic rivers from 1982 through 2019(American Geophysical Union, 2023-08-13)Long-term increases in Arctic river discharge have been well documented, and observations in the six largest Arctic rivers show strong positive correlations between dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration, river discharge, and chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) content. Here, observations of DOC and CDOM collected from 2009 to 2019 by the Arctic Great Rivers Observatory were used to estimate chromophoric DOC (CDOC) concentrations in the Kolyma, Lena, Mackenzie, Ob', Yenisey, and Yukon Rivers. All rivers except the Mackenzie showed significant positive correlations between annual watershed runoff and the proportion of the DOC that is chromophoric. Historical estimates of DOC and CDOC export were calculated for 1982–2019 by extrapolating the DOC and CDOC concentration—discharge relationships from 2009 to 2019 as a hindcast modeled estimate. For the six rivers combined, modeled DOC and CDOC exports increased, but CDOC increased faster than total DOC. The Lena and Ob' Rivers showed significant increases in DOC export individually, with annual trends of 39.1 and 20.4 Gg C yr−1 respectively. November–April (winter) DOC and CDOC exports increased in all rivers but the Yenisey, with the hindcast winter Kolyma export increasing by more than 20% per decade. There were no significant trends in discharge or associated DOC and CDOC fluxes during the observational period from 2009 to 2019; only when hindcasted values driven by changes in river discharge were analyzed did trends in DOC and CDOC emerge. This demonstrates how shifting seasonal distributions and increases in discharge can drive changes in DOC and CDOC concentrations and exports independent of other environmental factors.
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ArticleParasite manipulation of host phenotypes inferred from transcriptional analyses in a trematode-amphipod system(Wiley, 2023-08-04)Manipulation of host phenotypes by parasites is hypothesized to be an adaptive strategy enhancing parasite transmission across hosts and generations. Characterizing the molecular mechanisms of manipulation is important to advance our understanding of host–parasite coevolution. The trematode (Levinseniella byrdi) is known to alter the colour and behaviour of its amphipod host (Orchestia grillus) presumably increasing predation of amphipods which enhances trematode transmission through its life cycle. We sampled 24 infected and 24 uninfected amphipods from a salt marsh in Massachusetts to perform differential gene expression analysis. In addition, we constructed novel genomic tools for O. grillus including a de novo genome and transcriptome. We discovered that trematode infection results in upregulation of amphipod transcripts associated with pigmentation and detection of external stimuli, and downregulation of multiple amphipod transcripts implicated in invertebrate immune responses, such as vacuolar ATPase genes. We hypothesize that suppression of immune genes and the altered expression of genes associated with coloration and behaviour may allow the trematode to persist in the amphipod and engage in further biochemical manipulation that promotes transmission. The genomic tools and transcriptomic analyses reported provide new opportunities to discover how parasites alter diverse pathways underlying host phenotypic changes in natural populations.
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ArticleFuture climate conditions alter biomass of salt marsh plants in the Wadden Sea(Springer, 2023-06-14)Understanding how the salt marsh vegetation will evolve under future climate conditions is essential for predicting the role of marsh ecosystem services in a warmer climate with higher CO2-concentrations. In a mesocosm experiment in the northern Wadden Sea, the impact of increased temperature (+ 3 °C) and CO2 (800 ppm) on salt marsh vegetation was investigated, assessing biomass production in the pioneer zone and low marsh. The pioneer zone, which was dominated by Spartina anglica and exposed to natural tidal inundations, demonstrated a differentiated response between belowground and aboveground biomass. Aboveground biomass increased in response to enhanced CO2 availability, and belowground biomass increased in response to raised temperatures. Other plant species accounted for less than 18% of the aboveground biomass, and their biomass was suppressed under high CO2 availability. Increased biomass by Spartina anglica may improve resilience toward sea level rise. Hence, the pioneer zone is expected to maintain its coastal protection and blue carbon storage capacity under future climate conditions. The low marsh, which was dominated by Elymus athericus, was exposed to higher than usual tidal inundations and resembled a scenario with increased sea level. The low marsh showed no response in biomass to increased CO2 or temperature, which may be due to the increased flooding. The positive response of Spartina anglica (C4 plant) and the lack of response in Elymus athericus (C3 plant) counter the notion that C3 plants are more productive under future climate conditions and demonstrate that C4 plants can also thrive in future salt marshes.
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ArticleBiomechanical traits of salt marsh vegetation are insensitive to future climate scenarios(Nature Research, 2022-12-08)Salt marshes provide wave and flow attenuation, making them attractive for coastal protection. It is necessary to predict their coastal protection capacity in the future, when climate change will increase hydrodynamic forcing and environmental parameters such as water temperature and COcontent. We exposed the European salt marsh species Spartina anglica and Elymus athericus to enhanced water temperature (+ 3°) and CO(800 ppm) levels in a mesocosm experiment for 13 weeks in a full factorial design. Afterwards, the effect on biomechanic vegetation traits was assessed. These traits affect the interaction of vegetation with hydrodynamic forcing, forming the basis for wave and flow attenuation. Elymus athericus did not respond to any of the treatments suggesting that it is insensitive to such future climate changes. Spartina anglica showed an increase in diameter and flexural rigidity, while Young's bending modulus and breaking force did not differ between treatments. Despite some differences between the future climate scenario and present conditions, all values lie within the natural trait ranges for the two species. Consequently, this mesocosm study suggests that the capacity of salt marshes to provide coastal protection is likely to remain constantly high and will only be affected by future changes in hydrodynamic forcing.
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ArticleEditorial: Current advances in seagrass research(Frontiers Media, 2023-04-17)Seagrasses are of great ecological importance, forming large “meadows” in all continents except Antarctica and providing vital ecosystem services including primary production, carbon storage, nutrient cycling, habitat structure, and coastal protection. Seagrasses provide shelter and act as a nursery ground for commercially important small fish and invertebrates. Human activity, however, is having profound impacts on marine ecosystems, including seagrass communities. Over the last few decades anthropogenic changes, including reduced water quality, increased temperature, increased sediment loads, and higher grazing pressure, have caused global declines in seagrass populations and the area coverage of seagrass beds. Due to the valuable ecosystem services that seagrasses provide along coastlines all over the world, strategies to increase recovery of seagrass meadows are being developed; however, further research on seagrass distribution, responses to abiotic and biotic stressors and how that impacts the recovery process, acclimation or adaptation potential, and resilience to environmental change is required to support these strategies. For many regions, the exact distribution and coverage of seagrass are not well known, and simple methods to reliably detect changes in seagrass coverage need to be established for the development of locally successful conservation methods. This Research topic, therefore, aimed to advance seagrass research by bringing together different perspectives on seagrasses that highlight their ecological importance and the effects of anthropogenic pressures, as well as the potential for its recovery and restoration.
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ArticleUsing structure to model function: incorporating canopy structure improves estimates of ecosystem carbon flux in arctic dry heath tundra(IOP Publishing, 2023-05-12)Most tundra carbon flux modeling relies on leaf area index (LAI), generally estimated from measurements of canopy greenness using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), to estimate the direction and magnitude of fluxes. However, due to the relative sparseness and low stature of tundra canopies, such models do not explicitly consider the influence of variation in tundra canopy structure on carbon flux estimates. Structure from motion (SFM), a photogrammetric method for deriving three-dimensional (3D) structure from digital imagery, is a non-destructive method for estimating both fine-scale canopy structure and LAI. To understand how variation in 3D canopy structure affects ecosystem carbon fluxes in Arctic tundra, we adapted an existing NDVI-based tundra carbon flux model to include variation in SFM-derived canopy structure and its interaction with incoming sunlight to cast shadows on canopies. Our study system consisted of replicate plots of dry heath tundra that had been subjected to three herbivore exclosure treatments (an exclosure-free control [CT], large mammals exclosure), and a large and small mammal exclosure [ExLS]), providing the range of 3D canopy structures employed in our study. We found that foliage within the more structurally complex surface of CT canopies received significantly less light over the course of the day than canopies within both exclosure treatments. This was especially during morning and evening hours, and was reflected in modeled rates of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and gross primary productivity (GPP). We found that in the ExLS treatment, SFM-derived estimates of GPP were significantly lower and NEE significantly higher than those based on LAI alone. Our results demonstrate that the structure of even simple tundra vegetation canopies can have significant impacts on tundra carbon fluxes and thus need to be accounted for.
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ArticleA trait-based framework for seagrass ecology: trends and prospects(Frontiers Media, 2023-03-20)In the last three decades, quantitative approaches that rely on organism traits instead of taxonomy have advanced different fields of ecological research through establishing the mechanistic links between environmental drivers, functional traits, and ecosystem functions. A research subfield where trait-based approaches have been frequently used but poorly synthesized is the ecology of seagrasses; marine angiosperms that colonized the ocean 100M YA and today make up productive yet threatened coastal ecosystems globally. Here, we compiled a comprehensive trait-based response-effect framework (TBF) which builds on previous concepts and ideas, including the use of traits for the study of community assembly processes, from dispersal and response to abiotic and biotic factors, to ecosystem function and service provision. We then apply this framework to the global seagrass literature, using a systematic review to identify the strengths, gaps, and opportunities of the field. Seagrass trait research has mostly focused on the effect of environmental drivers on traits, i.e., "environmental filtering" (72%), whereas links between traits and functions are less common (26.9%). Despite the richness of trait-based data available, concepts related to TBFs are rare in the seagrass literature (15% of studies), including the relative importance of neutral and niche assembly processes, or the influence of trait dominance or complementarity in ecosystem function provision. These knowledge gaps indicate ample potential for further research, highlighting the need to understand the links between the unique traits of seagrasses and the ecosystem services they provide.
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ArticleProspects and challenges of regional modeling frameworks to inform planning for food, energy, and water systems: views of modelers and stakeholders(Frontiers Media, 2023-03-21)Multisectoral models of regional bio-physical systems simulate policy responses to climate change and support climate mitigation and adaptation planning at multiple scales. Challenges facing these efforts include sometimes weak understandings of causal relationships, lack of integrated data streams, spatial and temporal incongruities with policy interests, and how to incorporate dynamics associated with human values, governance structures, and vulnerable populations. There are two general approaches to developing integrated models. The first involves stakeholder involvement in model design -- a participatory modeling approach. The second is to integrate existing models. This can be done in two ways: by integrating existing models or by a soft-linked confederation of existing models. A benefit of utilizing existing models is the leveraging of validated and familiar models that provide credibility. We report opportunities and challenges manifested in one effort to develop a regional food, energy, and water systems (FEWS) modeling framework using existing bio-physical models. The C-FEWS modeling framework (Climate-induced extremes on the linked food, energy, water system) is intended to identify and evaluate response options to extreme weather in the Midwest and Northeast United States thru the year 2100. We interviewed ten modelers associated with development of the C-FEWS framework and ten stakeholders from government agencies, planning agencies, and non-governmental organizations in New England. We inquired about their perspectives on the roles and challenges of regional FEWS modeling frameworks to inform planning and information needed to support planning in integrated food, energy, and water systems. We also analyzed discussions of meetings among modelers and among stakeholders and modelers. These sources reveal many agreements among modelers and stakeholders about the role of modeling frameworks, their benefits for policymakers, and the types of outputs they should produce. They also identify challenges to developing regional modeling frameworks that couple existing models and balancing model capabilities with stakeholder preferences for information. The results indicate the importance of modelers and stakeholders engaging in dialogue to craft modeling frameworks and scenarios that are credible and relevant for policymakers. We reflect on the implications for how FEWS modeling frameworks comprised of existing bio-physical models can be designed to better inform policy making at the regional scale.
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ArticleApplying the framework to study climate-induced extremes on food, energy, and water systems (C-FEWS): the role of engineered and natural infrastructures, technology, and environmental management in the United States Northeast and Midwest(Frontiers Media, 2023-03-08)Change to global climate, including both its progressive character and episodic extremes, constitutes a critical societal challenge. We apply here a framework to analyze Climate-induced Extremes on the Food, Energy, Water System Nexus (C-FEWS), with particular emphasis on the roles and sensitivities of traditionally-engineered (TEI) and nature-based (NBI) infrastructures. The rationale and technical specifications for the overall C-FEWS framework, its component models and supporting datasets are detailed in an accompanying paper (Vörösmarty et al., this issue). We report here on initial results produced by applying this framework in two important macro-regions of the United States (Northeast, NE; Midwest, MW), where major decisions affecting global food production, biofuels, energy security and pollution abatement require critical scientific support. We present the essential FEWS-related hypotheses that organize our work with an overview of the methodologies and experimental designs applied. We report on initial C-FEWS framework results using five emblematic studies that highlight how various combinations of climate sensitivities, TEI-NBI deployments, technology, and environmental management have determined regional FEWS performance over a historical time period (1980–2019). Despite their relative simplicity, these initial scenario experiments yielded important insights. We found that FEWS performance was impacted by climate stress, but the sensitivity was strongly modified by technology choices applied to both ecosystems (e.g., cropland production using new cultivars) and engineered systems (e.g., thermoelectricity from different fuels and cooling types). We tabulated strong legacy effects stemming from decisions on managing NBI (e.g., multi-decade land conversions that limit long-term carbon sequestration). The framework also enabled us to reveal how broad-scale policies aimed at a particular net benefit can result in unintended and potentially negative consequences. For example, tradeoff modeling experiments identified the regional importance of TEI in the form wastewater treatment and NBI via aquatic self-purification. This finding, in turn, could be used to guide potential investments in point and/or non-point source water pollution control. Another example used a reduced complexity model to demonstrate a FEWS tradeoff in the context of water supply, electricity production, and thermal pollution. Such results demonstrated the importance of TEI and NBI in jointly determining historical FEWS performance, their vulnerabilities, and their resilience to extreme climate events. These infrastructures, plus technology and environmental management, constitute the “policy levers” which can actively be engaged to mitigate the challenge of contemporary and future climate change.
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ArticleInfluence of forest infrastructure on the responses of ecosystem services to climate extremes in the Midwest and Northeast United States from 1980 to 2019(Frontiers Media, 2023-03-07)Forests provide several critical ecosystem services that help to support human society. Alteration of forest infrastructure by changes in land use, atmospheric chemistry, and climate change influence the ability of forests to provide these ecosystem services and their sensitivity to existing and future extreme climate events. Here, we explore how the evolving forest infrastructure of the Midwest and Northeast United States influences carbon sequestration, biomass increment (i.e., change in vegetation carbon), biomass burning associated with fuelwood and slash removal, the creation of wood products, and runoff between 1980 and 2019 within the context of changing environmental conditions and extreme climate events using a coupled modeling and assessment framework. For the 40-year study period, the region’s forests functioned as a net atmospheric carbon sink of 687 Tg C with similar amounts of carbon sequestered in the Midwest and the Northeast. Most of the carbon has been sequestered in vegetation (+771 Tg C) with more carbon stored in Midwestern trees than in Northeastern trees to provide a larger resource for potential wood products in the future. Runoff from forests has also provided 4,651 billion m 3 of water for potential use by humans during the study period with the Northeastern forests providing about 2.4 times more water than the Midwestern forests. Our analyses indicate that climate variability, as particularly influenced by heat waves, has the dominant effect on the ability of forest ecosystems to sequester atmospheric CO 2 to mitigate climate change, create new wood biomass for future fuel and wood products, and provide runoff for potential human use. Forest carbon sequestration and biomass increment appear to be more sensitive to heat waves in the Midwest than the Northeast while forest runoff appears to be more sensitive in the Northeast than the Midwest. Land-use change, driven by expanding suburban areas and cropland abandonment, has enhanced the detrimental heat-wave effects in Midwestern forests over time, but moderated these effects in Northeastern forests. When developing climate stabilization, energy production and water security policies, it will be important to consider how evolving forest infrastructure modifies ecosystem services and their responses to extreme climate events over time.
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ArticleIntraspecific variation in phenology offers resilience to climate change for Eriophorum vaginatum(Canadian Science Publishing, 2021-05-19)The phenology of Arctic plants is an important determinant of the pattern of carbon uptake and may be highly sensitive to continued rapid climate change. Eriophorum vaginatum L. (Cyperaceae) has a disproportionate influence over ecosystem processes in moist acidic tundra, but it is unclear whether its growth and phenology will remain competitive in the future. We investigated whether northern tundra ecotypes of E. vaginatum could extend their growing season in response to direct warming and transplanting into southern ecosystems. At the same time, we examined whether southern ecotypes could adjust their growth patterns in order to thrive further north, should they disperse quickly enough. Detailed phenology measurements across three reciprocal transplant gardens over a 2-year period showed that some northern ecotypes were capable of growing for longer when conditions were favourable, but their biomass and growing season length was still shorter than those of the southern ecotype. Southern ecotypes retained large leaf length when transplanted north and mirrored the growing season length better than the others, mainly owing to immediate green-up after snowmelt. All ecotypes retained the same senescence timing, regardless of environment, indicating a strong genetic control. Eriophorum vaginatum may remain competitive in a warming world if southern ecotypes can migrate north.
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ArticleThe C-FEWS framework: Supporting studies of climate-induced extremes on food, energy, and water systems at the regional scale(Frontiers Media, 2023-02-06)Climate change continues to challenge food, energy, and water systems (FEWS) across the globe and will figure prominently in shaping future decisions on how best to manage this nexus. In turn, traditionally engineered and natural infrastructures jointly support and hence determine FEWS performance, their vulnerabilities, and their resilience in light of extreme climate events. We present here a research framework to advance the modeling, data integration, and assessment capabilities that support hypothesis-driven research on FEWS dynamics cast at the macro-regional scale. The framework was developed to support studies on climate-induced extremes on food, energy, and water systems (C-FEWS) and designed to identify and evaluate response options to extreme climate events in the context of managing traditionally engineered (TEI) and nature-based infrastructures (NBI). This paper presents our strategy for a first stage of research using the framework to analyze contemporary FEWS and their sensitivity to climate drivers shaped by historical conditions (1980–2019). We offer a description of the computational framework, working definitions of the climate extremes analyzed, and example configurations of numerical experiments aimed at evaluating the importance of individual and combined driving variables. Single and multiple factor experiments involving the historical time series enable two categories of outputs to be analyzed: the first involving biogeophysical entities (e.g., crop production, carbon sequestered, nutrient and thermal pollution loads) and the second reflecting a portfolio of services provided by the region’s TEI and NBI, evaluated in economic terms. The framework is exercised in a series of companion papers in this special issue that focus on the Northeast and Midwest regions of the United States. Use of the C-FEWS framework to simulate historical conditions facilitates research to better identify existing FEWS linkages and how they function. The framework also enables a next stage of analysis to be pursued using future scenario pathways that will vary land use, technology deployments, regulatory objectives, and climate trends and extremes. It also supports a stakeholder engagement effort to co-design scenarios of interest beyond the research domain.