Coastal and Shelf Geology
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PublicationAccuracy of shoreline forecasting using sparse data(Elsevier, 2023-04-28) Farris, Amy S. ; Long, Joseph W. ; Himmelstoss, Emily A.Sandy beaches are important resources providing recreation, tourism, habitat, and coastal protection. They evolve over various time scales due to local winds, waves, storms, and changes in sea level. A common method used to monitor change in sandy beaches is to measure the movement of the shoreline over time. Typically, the rate of change is estimated by fitting a linear regression through a time series of shoreline positions. To best manage the valuable resources within a coastal environment, accurate forecasts of shoreline position are needed. A simple way to estimate future shoreline position is to extrapolate a linear regression into the future, this method is often used to establish management guidelines like construction setback lines. A more recently developed shoreline forecasting technique utilizes the Kalman filter to assimilate shoreline data and modify the linear regression. This paper calculates the uncertainty and accuracy of both the extrapolated linear regression and Kalman filter forecasting methods for 10- and 20-year hindcasts using data collected at five diverse study areas. These data are inherently sparse (8–10 measurements per location, collected over 150 years) and are representative of the observed historical data available for the continental United States for this timeframe. Both methods produced similar results and had regionally averaged forecast accuracies of 5–16 m. We determined that the inaccuracy of the forecasts is largely due to the effects of shorter time scale variability. This variability is roughly proportional to the standard error of the linear regression, which is a useful measure of forecast uncertainty.•Extrapolated linear regression (ELR) can provide suitable shoreline forecasts.•A new method using the Kalman filter has forecast accuracy similar to the ELR.•Standard error of the linear regression is useful to estimate forecast uncertainty.•The SE of the linear regression can be used to test usefulness of old shorelines.
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ArticleAutomated feature extraction and spatial organization of seafloor pockmarks, Belfast Bay, Maine, USA(Elsevier B.V., 2010-08-20) Andrews, Brian D. ; Brothers, Laura L. ; Barnhardt, Walter A.Seafloor pockmarks occur worldwide and may represent millions of m3 of continental shelf erosion, but few numerical analyses of their morphology and spatial distribution of pockmarks exist. We introduce a quantitative definition of pockmark morphology and, based on this definition, propose a three-step geomorphometric method to identify and extract pockmarks from high-resolution swath bathymetry. We apply this GIS-implemented approach to 25 km2 of bathymetry collected in the Belfast Bay, Maine USA pockmark field. Our model extracted 1767 pockmarks and found a linear pockmark depth-to-diameter ratio for pockmarks field-wide. Mean pockmark depth is 7.6 m and mean diameter is 84.8 m. Pockmark distribution is non-random, and nearly half of the field's pockmarks occur in chains. The most prominent chains are oriented semi-normal to the steepest gradient in Holocene sediment thickness. A descriptive model yields field-wide spatial statistics indicating that pockmarks are distributed in non-random clusters. Results enable quantitative comparison of pockmarks in fields worldwide as well as similar concave features, such as impact craters, dolines, or salt pools.
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ArticleA Bayesian network approach to predicting nest presence of the federally-threatened piping plover (Charadrius melodus) using barrier island features(Elsevier, 2014-01-31) Gieder, Katherina D. ; Karpanty, Sarah M. ; Fraser, James D. ; Catlin, Daniel H. ; Gutierrez, Benjamin T. ; Plant, Nathaniel G. ; Turecek, Aaron M. ; Thieler, E. RobertSea-level rise and human development pose significant threats to shorebirds, particularly for species that utilize barrier island habitat. The piping plover (Charadrius melodus) is a federally-listed shorebird that nests on barrier islands and rapidly responds to changes in its physical environment, making it an excellent species with which to model how shorebird species may respond to habitat change related to sea-level rise and human development. The uncertainty and complexity in predicting sea-level rise, the responses of barrier island habitats to sea-level rise, and the responses of species to sea-level rise and human development necessitate a modeling approach that can link species to the physical habitat features that will be altered by changes in sea level and human development. We used a Bayesian network framework to develop a model that links piping plover nest presence to the physical features of their nesting habitat on a barrier island that is impacted by sea-level rise and human development, using three years of data (1999, 2002, and 2008) from Assateague Island National Seashore in Maryland. Our model performance results showed that we were able to successfully predict nest presence given a wide range of physical conditions within the model's dataset. We found that model predictions were more successful when the ranges of physical conditions included in model development were varied rather than when those physical conditions were narrow. We also found that all model predictions had fewer false negatives (nests predicted to be absent when they were actually present in the dataset) than false positives (nests predicted to be present when they were actually absent in the dataset), indicating that our model correctly predicted nest presence better than nest absence. These results indicated that our approach of using a Bayesian network to link specific physical features to nest presence will be useful for modeling impacts of sea-level rise or human-related habitat change on barrier islands. We recommend that potential users of this method utilize multiple years of data that represent a wide range of physical conditions in model development, because the model performed less well when constructed using a narrow range of physical conditions. Further, given that there will always be some uncertainty in predictions of future physical habitat conditions related to sea-level rise and/or human development, predictive models will perform best when developed using multiple, varied years of data input.
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ArticleA Bayesian network to predict coastal vulnerability to sea level rise(American Geophysical Union, 2011-04-22) Gutierrez, Benjamin T. ; Plant, Nathaniel G. ; Thieler, E. RobertSea level rise during the 21st century will have a wide range of effects on coastal environments, human development, and infrastructure in coastal areas. The broad range of complex factors influencing coastal systems contributes to large uncertainties in predicting long-term sea level rise impacts. Here we explore and demonstrate the capabilities of a Bayesian network (BN) to predict long-term shoreline change associated with sea level rise and make quantitative assessments of prediction uncertainty. A BN is used to define relationships between driving forces, geologic constraints, and coastal response for the U.S. Atlantic coast that include observations of local rates of relative sea level rise, wave height, tide range, geomorphic classification, coastal slope, and shoreline change rate. The BN is used to make probabilistic predictions of shoreline retreat in response to different future sea level rise rates. Results demonstrate that the probability of shoreline retreat increases with higher rates of sea level rise. Where more specific information is included, the probability of shoreline change increases in a number of cases, indicating more confident predictions. A hindcast evaluation of the BN indicates that the network correctly predicts 71% of the cases. Evaluation of the results using Brier skill and log likelihood ratio scores indicates that the network provides shoreline change predictions that are better than the prior probability. Shoreline change outcomes indicating stability (−1 < rate < 1 m/yr) or erosion (rate < −1 m/yr) tend to occur for two sets of input scenarios. Stable shoreline change rates occur mainly for low rates of relative sea level rise and occur in low-vulnerability geomorphic settings. Rates indicating erosion result for cases where the rate of relative sea level rise is high and moderate-to-high vulnerability geomorphic settings occur. In contrast, accretion (rate > 1 m/yr) was not well predicted. We find that BNs can assimilate important factors contributing to coastal change in response to sea level rise and can make quantitative, probabilistic predictions that can be applied to coastal management decisions.
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ArticleBolide impact effects on the West Florida Platform, Gulf of Mexico: end Cretaceous and late Eocene(Geological Society of America, 2022-03-16) Poag, C. WylieThis study documents seismic reflection evidence that two different bolide impacts significantly disrupted stratigraphic and depositional processes on the West Florida Platform (Gulf of Mexico). The first impact terminated the Late Cretaceous Epoch (Chicxulub impact, Mexico; ca. 66 Ma; end-Maastrichtian age). The second took place in the late Eocene (Chesapeake Bay impact, Virginia, USA, portion of the Chesapeake Bay; ca. 35 Ma; Priabonian age). Both impacts produced far-reaching seismic shaking and ground roll followed by an impact-generated tsunami, the effects of which are evident in the seismostratigraphic record. The Chicxulub seismic shaking caused collapse and shoreward retreat of the Florida Escarpment and widely disrupted (faulting, folding, slumping) normal flat-lying shelf beds. The associated tsunami currents redistributed these shelf deposits and mixed them together with collapse debris from the escarpment to form a thick wedge of sediments along the base of the escarpment. The Chesapeake Bay impact created a mounded sedimentary deposit near the outer edge of the late Eocene ramp slope. This deposit also has a bipartite origin. A lower layer is marked by en echelon faulting created in situ by seismic shaking, whereas an upper layer represents sediments redistributed from the late Eocene shelf and upper ramp slope by tsunami-driven bottom currents (debris flows, contour currents, slumps). This is the first report of seismic effects from the Chesapeake Bay impact in the Gulf of Mexico. These results further demonstrate that large-scale marine bolide impacts have widespread effects on the stratigraphic and depositional record of Earth.
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ArticleBridging groundwater models and decision support with a Bayesian network(John Wiley & Sons, 2013-10-09) Fienen, Michael N. ; Masterson, John P. ; Plant, Nathaniel G. ; Gutierrez, Benjamin T. ; Thieler, E. RobertResource managers need to make decisions to plan for future environmental conditions, particularly sea level rise, in the face of substantial uncertainty. Many interacting processes factor in to the decisions they face. Advances in process models and the quantification of uncertainty have made models a valuable tool for this purpose. Long-simulation runtimes and, often, numerical instability make linking process models impractical in many cases. A method for emulating the important connections between model input and forecasts, while propagating uncertainty, has the potential to provide a bridge between complicated numerical process models and the efficiency and stability needed for decision making. We explore this using a Bayesian network (BN) to emulate a groundwater flow model. We expand on previous approaches to validating a BN by calculating forecasting skill using cross validation of a groundwater model of Assateague Island in Virginia and Maryland, USA. This BN emulation was shown to capture the important groundwater-flow characteristics and uncertainty of the groundwater system because of its connection to island morphology and sea level. Forecast power metrics associated with the validation of multiple alternative BN designs guided the selection of an optimal level of BN complexity. Assateague island is an ideal test case for exploring a forecasting tool based on current conditions because the unique hydrogeomorphological variability of the island includes a range of settings indicative of past, current, and future conditions. The resulting BN is a valuable tool for exploring the response of groundwater conditions to sea level rise in decision support.
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ArticleA catastrophic meltwater flood event and the formation of the Hudson Shelf Valley(Elsevier B.V., 2007-01-04) Thieler, E. Robert ; Butman, Bradford ; Schwab, William C. ; Allison, Mead A. ; Driscoll, Neal W. ; Donnelly, Jeffrey P. ; Uchupi, ElazarThe Hudson Shelf Valley (HSV) is the largest physiographic feature on the U.S. mid-Atlantic continental shelf. The 150-km long valley is the submerged extension of the ancestral Hudson River Valley that connects to the Hudson Canyon. Unlike other incised valleys on the mid-Atlantic shelf, it has not been infilled with sediment during the Holocene. Analyses of multibeam bathymetry, acoustic backscatter intensity, and high-resolution seismic reflection profiles reveal morphologic and stratigraphic evidence for a catastrophic meltwater flood event that formed the modern HSV. The valley and its distal deposits record a discrete flood event that carved 15-m high banks, formed a 120-km2 field of 3- to 6-m high bedforms, and deposited a subaqueous delta on the outer shelf. The HSV is inferred to have been carved initially by precipitation and meltwater runoff during the advance of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, and later by the drainage of early proglacial lakes through stable spillways. A flood resulting from the failure of the terminal moraine dam at the Narrows between Staten Island and Long Island, New York, allowed glacial lakes in the Hudson and Ontario basins to drain across the continental shelf. Water level changes in the Hudson River basin associated with the catastrophic drainage of glacial lakes Iroquois, Vermont, and Albany around 11,450 14C year BP (~ 13,350 cal BP) may have precipitated dam failure at the Narrows. This 3200 km3 discharge of freshwater entered the North Atlantic proximal to the Gulf Stream and may have affected thermohaline circulation at the onset of the Intra-Allerød Cold Period. Based on bedform characteristics and fluvial morphology in the HSV, the maximum freshwater flux during the flood event is estimated to be ~ 0.46 Sv for a duration of ~ 80 days.
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PreprintCharacter and distribution of exposed glaciodeltaic deposits off outer Cape Cod, Massachusetts, and their effects on hydrogeology and benthic habitats( 2005-05-15) Poppe, Lawrence J. ; Foster, David S. ; Danforth, William W.Sea-bed outcrops of glaciodeltaic sediments were identified in four places east of Cape Cod, Massachusetts during seismic-reflection, multibeam bathymetric and backscatter, bottom photographic, and sediment sampling surveys. These strata record coarser-grained ice-proximal glaciofluvial topset to finer-grained distal glaciolacustrine bottomset deposition within deltaic systems that prograded southwestward into glacial lakes from the South Channel lobe about 18 ka B.P. These beds are important because they (1) influence the outer Cape's hydrogeologic framework, and (2) provide relatively stable, locally rough habitats within an area of seafloor dominated by mobile sand and gravelly sediment, and benefit the benthic fauna by providing shelter and a substrate amenable to burrow construction.
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ArticleCharacter, distribution, and ecological significance of storm wave-induced scour in Rhode Island Sound, USA(Springer, 2014-11-21) McMullen, Katherine Y. ; Poppe, Lawrence J. ; Parker, Castle E.Multibeam bathymetry, collected during NOAA hydrographic surveys in 2008 and 2009, is coupled with USGS data from sampling and photographic stations to map the seabed morphology and composition of Rhode Island Sound along the US Atlantic coast, and to provide information on sediment transport and benthic habitats. Patchworks of scour depressions cover large areas on seaward-facing slopes and bathymetric highs in the sound. These depressions average 0.5–0.8 m deep and occur in water depths reaching as much as 42 m. They have relatively steep well-defined sides and coarser-grained floors, and vary strongly in shape, size, and configuration. Some individual scour depressions have apparently expanded to combine with adjacent depressions, forming larger eroded areas that commonly contain outliers of the original seafloor sediments. Where cobbles and scattered boulders are present on the depression floors, the muddy Holocene sands have been completely removed and the winnowed relict Pleistocene deposits exposed. Low tidal-current velocities and the lack of obstacle marks suggest that bidirectional tidal currents alone are not capable of forming these features. These depressions are formed and maintained under high-energy shelf conditions owing to repetitive cyclic loading imposed by high-amplitude, long-period, storm-driven waves that reduce the effective shear strength of the sediment, cause resuspension, and expose the suspended sediments to erosion by wind-driven and tidal currents. Because epifauna dominate on gravel floors of the depressions and infauna are prevalent in the finer-grained Holocene deposits, it is concluded that the resultant close juxtaposition of silty sand-, sand-, and gravel-dependent communities promotes regional faunal complexity. These findings expand on earlier interpretations, documenting how storm wave-induced scour produces sorted bedforms that control much of the benthic geologic and biologic diversity in Rhode Island Sound.
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ArticleCharacterizing storm response and recovery using the beach change envelope : Fire Island, New York(Elsevier, 2017-08-03) Brenner, Owen T. ; Lentz, Erika E. ; Hapke, Cheryl J. ; Henderson, Rachel E. ; Wilson, Kat E. ; Nelson, Timothy R.Hurricane Sandy at Fire Island, New York presented unique challenges in the quantification of storm impacts using traditional metrics of coastal change, wherein measured changes (shoreline, dune crest, and volume change) did not fully reflect the substantial changes in sediment redistribution following the storm. We used a time series of beach profile data at Fire Island, New York to define a new contour-based morphologic change metric, the Beach Change Envelope (BCE). The BCE quantifies changes to the upper portion of the beach likely to sustain measurable impacts from storm waves and capture a variety of storm and post-storm beach states. We evaluated the ability of the BCE to characterize cycles of beach change by relating it to a conceptual beach recovery regime, and demonstrated that BCE width and BCE height from the profile time series correlate well with established stages of recovery. We also investigated additional applications of this metric to capture impacts from storms and human modification by applying it to several post-storm historical datasets in which impacts varied considerably; Nor'Ida (2009), Hurricane Irene (2011), Hurricane Sandy (2012), and a 2009 community replenishment. In each case, the BCE captured distinctive upper beach morphologic change characteristic of these different beach building and erosional events. Analysis of the beach state at multiple profile locations showed spatial trends in recovery consistent with recent morphologic island evolution, which other studies have linked with sediment availability and the geologic framework. Ultimately we demonstrate a new way of more effectively characterizing beach response and recovery cycles to evaluate change along sandy coasts.
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ArticleComplexities in barrier island response to sea level rise : insights from numerical model experiments, North Carolina Outer Banks(American Geophysical Union, 2010-07-09) Moore, Laura J. ; List, Jeffrey H. ; Williams, S. Jeffress ; Stolper, DavidUsing a morphological-behavior model to conduct sensitivity experiments, we investigate the sea level rise response of a complex coastal environment to changes in a variety of factors. Experiments reveal that substrate composition, followed in rank order by substrate slope, sea level rise rate, and sediment supply rate, are the most important factors in determining barrier island response to sea level rise. We find that geomorphic threshold crossing, defined as a change in state (e.g., from landward migrating to drowning) that is irreversible over decadal to millennial time scales, is most likely to occur in muddy coastal systems where the combination of substrate composition, depth-dependent limitations on shoreface response rates, and substrate erodibility may prevent sand from being liberated rapidly enough, or in sufficient quantity, to maintain a subaerial barrier. Analyses indicate that factors affecting sediment availability such as low substrate sand proportions and high sediment loss rates cause a barrier to migrate landward along a trajectory having a lower slope than average barrier island slope, thereby defining an “effective” barrier island slope. Other factors being equal, such barriers will tend to be smaller and associated with a more deeply incised shoreface, thereby requiring less migration per sea level rise increment to liberate sufficient sand to maintain subaerial exposure than larger, less incised barriers. As a result, the evolution of larger/less incised barriers is more likely to be limited by shoreface erosion rates or substrate erodibility making them more prone to disintegration related to increasing sea level rise rates than smaller/more incised barriers. Thus, the small/deeply incised North Carolina barriers are likely to persist in the near term (although their long-term fate is less certain because of the low substrate slopes that will soon be encountered). In aggregate, results point to the importance of system history (e.g., previous slopes, sediment budgets, etc.) in determining migration trajectories and therefore how a barrier island will respond to sea level rise. Although simple analytical calculations may predict barrier response in simplified coastal environments (e.g., constant slope, constant sea level rise rate, etc.), our model experiments demonstrate that morphological-behavior modeling is necessary to provide critical insights regarding changes that may occur in environments having complex geometries, especially when multiple parameters change simultaneously.
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ArticleCoupling centennial-scale shoreline change to sea-level rise and coastal morphology in the Gulf of Mexico using a Bayesian network(John WIley & Sons, 2016-05-02) Plant, Nathaniel G. ; Thieler, E. Robert ; Passeri, DavinaPredictions of coastal evolution driven by episodic and persistent processes associated with storms and relative sea-level rise (SLR) are required to test our understanding, evaluate our predictive capability, and to provide guidance for coastal management decisions. Previous work demonstrated that the spatial variability of long-term shoreline change can be predicted using observed SLR rates, tide range, wave height, coastal slope, and a characterization of the geomorphic setting. The shoreline is not sufficient to indicate which processes are important in causing shoreline change, such as overwash that depends on coastal dune elevations. Predicting dune height is intrinsically important to assess future storm vulnerability. Here, we enhance shoreline-change predictions by including dune height as a variable in a statistical modeling approach. Dune height can also be used as an input variable, but it does not improve the shoreline-change prediction skill. Dune-height input does help to reduce prediction uncertainty. That is, by including dune height, the prediction is more precise but not more accurate. Comparing hindcast evaluations, better predictive skill was found when predicting dune height (0.8) compared with shoreline change (0.6). The skill depends on the level of detail of the model and we identify an optimized model that has high skill and minimal overfitting. The predictive model can be implemented with a range of forecast scenarios, and we illustrate the impacts of a higher future sea-level. This scenario shows that the shoreline change becomes increasingly erosional and more uncertain. Predicted dune heights are lower and the dune height uncertainty decreases.
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ArticleDecoupling processes and scales of shoreline morphodynamics(Elsevier, 2016-08-24) Hapke, Cheryl J. ; Plant, Nathaniel G. ; Henderson, Rachel E. ; Schwab, William C. ; Nelson, Timothy R.Behavior of coastal systems on time scales ranging from single storm events to years and decades is controlled by both small-scale sediment transport processes and large-scale geologic, oceanographic, and morphologic processes. Improved understanding of coastal behavior at multiple time scales is required for refining models that predict potential erosion hazards and for coastal management planning and decision-making. Here we investigate the primary controls on shoreline response along a geologically-variable barrier island on time scales resolving extreme storms and decadal variations over a period of nearly one century. An empirical orthogonal function analysis is applied to a time series of shoreline positions at Fire Island, NY to identify patterns of shoreline variance along the length of the island. We establish that there are separable patterns of shoreline behavior that represent response to oceanographic forcing as well as patterns that are not explained by this forcing. The dominant shoreline behavior occurs over large length scales in the form of alternating episodes of shoreline retreat and advance, presumably in response to storms cycles. Two secondary responses include long-term response that is correlated to known geologic variations of the island and the other reflects geomorphic patterns with medium length scale. Our study also includes the response to Hurricane Sandy and a period of post-storm recovery. It was expected that the impacts from Hurricane Sandy would disrupt long-term trends and spatial patterns. We found that the response to Sandy at Fire Island is not notable or distinguishable from several other large storms of the prior decade.
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ArticleDeep learning for pockmark detection: implications for quantitative seafloor characterization(Elsevier, 2022-11-24) Lundine, Mark A. ; Brothers, Laura L. ; Trembanis, Arthur C.Occurring globally, pockmarks are seafloor depressions associated with seabed fluid escape. Pockmark ubiquity and morphologic heterogeneity result in an irregular seafloor that can be difficult to quantitatively describe. To address this challenge, we test the hypothesis that deep-learning based object detection and segmentation can be used to develop data-driven models for pockmark identification and characterization. This study describes the development, testing, and deployment of eight separate deep learning-based pockmark detection models using publicly available, gridded bathymetric data from the Belfast Bay, Maine, USA, Blue Hill Bay, Maine, USA, and Passamaquoddy Bay, New Brunswick, Canada estuarine pockmark fields. The models tested include three types of convolutional neural network architectures, as well as a generative adversarial network. We find that the data-driven models consistently resolve pockmarks from the background seafloor, allowing for quick and accurate delineation of pockmarks in a variety of seabed habitats. With these delineations we examine and compare the morphology of the muddy estuarine pockmark fields. We then compare these morphometric results to pockmark fields in two distinct settings, the sandy German Bight and the Aquitaine continental slope. We find that in all the pockmark fields a power law relationship, generally, exists between pockmark area and pockmark depth, though this relationship deteriorates with the smallest pockmarks, suggesting that there may be a minimum size needed for geomorphic stability. These results show that the training data and trained models developed here can be applied for quick detection and characterization of pockmarks where other high-resolution bathymetry is available, demonstrating the value of data-driven detection models for characterizing morphologically complex seafloors. Last, the morphologic characteristics of pockmarks identified in this study will aid future studies in relating pockmark size to environmental characteristics like seabed sediment texture and regional gradient.
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ArticleEffects of climate change and anthropogenic modification on a disturbance-dependent species in a large riverine system(John Wiley & Sons, 2017-01-11) Zeigler, Sara L. ; Catlin, Daniel H. ; Brown, Mary Bomberger ; Fraser, James D. ; Dinan, Lauren R. ; Hunt, Kelsi L. ; Jorgensen, Joel G. ; Karpanty, Sarah M.Humans have altered nearly every natural disturbance regime on the planet through climate and land-use change, and in many instances, these processes may have interacting effects. For example, projected shifts in temperature and precipitation will likely influence disturbance regimes already affected by anthropogenic fire suppression or river impoundments. Understanding how disturbance-dependent species respond to complex and interacting environmental changes is important for conservation efforts. Using field-based demographic and movement rates, we conducted a metapopulation viability analysis for piping plovers (Charadrius melodus), a threatened disturbance-dependent species, along the Missouri and Platte rivers in the Great Plains of North America. Our aim was to better understand current and projected future metapopulation dynamics given that natural disturbances (flooding or high-flow events) have been greatly reduced by river impoundments and that climate change could further alter the disturbance regime. Although metapopulation abundance has been substantially reduced under the current suppressed disturbance regime (high-flow return interval ~ 20 yr), it could grow if the frequency of high-flow events increases as predicted under likely climate change scenarios. We found that a four-year return interval would maximize metapopulation abundance, and all subpopulations in the metapopulation would act as sources at a return interval of 15 yr or less. Regardless of disturbance frequency, the presence of even a small, stable source subpopulation buffered the metapopulation and sustained a low metapopulation extinction risk. Therefore, climate change could have positive effects in ecosystems where disturbances have been anthropogenically suppressed when climatic shifts move disturbance regimes toward more historical patterns. Furthermore, stable source populations, even if unintentionally maintained through anthropogenic activities, may be critical for the persistence of metapopulations of early-successional species under both suppressed disturbance regimes and disturbance regimes where climate change has further altered disturbance frequency or scope.
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ArticleEffects of sea-level rise on barrier island groundwater system dynamics – ecohydrological implications(John Wiley & Sons, 2014-11-12) Masterson, John P. ; Fienen, Michael N. ; Thieler, E. Robert ; Gesch, Dean B. ; Gutierrez, Benjamin T. ; Plant, Nathaniel G.We used a numerical model to investigate how a barrier island groundwater system responds to increases of up to 60 cm in sea level. We found that a sea-level rise of 20 cm leads to substantial changes in the depth of the water table and the extent and depth of saltwater intrusion, which are key determinants in the establishment, distribution and succession of vegetation assemblages and habitat suitability in barrier islands ecosystems. In our simulations, increases in water-table height in areas with a shallow depth to water (or thin vadose zone) resulted in extensive groundwater inundation of land surface and a thinning of the underlying freshwater lens. We demonstrated the interdependence of the groundwater response to island morphology by evaluating changes at three sites. This interdependence can have a profound effect on ecosystem composition in these fragile coastal landscapes under long-term changing climatic conditions.
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PreprintEvaluation of dynamic coastal response to sea-level rise modifies inundation likelihood( 2016-02) Lentz, Erika E. ; Thieler, E. Robert ; Plant, Nathaniel G. ; Stippa, Sawyer R. ; Horton, Radley M. ; Gesch, Dean B.Sea-level rise (SLR) poses a range of threats to natural and built environments1, 2, making assessments of SLR-induced hazards essential for informed decision-making3. We develop a probabilistic model that evaluates the likelihood that an area will inundate (flood) or dynamically respond (adapt) to SLR. The broad-area applicability of the approach is demonstrated by producing 30x30 m resolution predictions for more than 38,000 km2 of diverse coastal landscape in the northeastern United States (U.S.). Probabilistic SLR projections, coastal elevation, and vertical land movement are used to estimate likely future inundation levels. Then, conditioned on future inundation levels and the current land-cover type, we evaluate the likelihood of dynamic response vs. inundation. We find that nearly 70% of this coastal landscape has some capacity to respond dynamically to SLR, and we show that inundation models over-predict land likely to submerge. This approach is well-suited to guiding coastal resource management decisions that weigh future SLR impacts and uncertainty against ecological targets and economic constraints.
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ArticleEvolution of a Holocene delta driven by episodic sediment delivery and coseismic deformation, Puget Sound, Washington, USA(Blackwell, 2006-08-16) Barnhardt, Walter A. ; Sherrod, Brian L.Episodic, large-volume pulses of volcaniclastic sediment and coseismic subsidence of the coast have influenced the development of a late Holocene delta at southern Puget Sound. Multibeam bathymetry, ground-penetrating radar (GPR) and vibracores were used to investigate the morphologic and stratigraphic evolution of the Nisqually River delta. Two fluvial–deltaic facies are recognized on the basis of GPR data and sedimentary characteristics in cores, which suggest partial emplacement from sediment-rich floods that originated on Mount Rainier. Facies S consists of stacked, sheet-like deposits of andesitic sand up to 4 m thick that are continuous across the entire width of the delta. Flat-lying, highly reflective surfaces separate the sand sheets and comprise important facies boundaries. Beds of massive, pumice- and charcoal-rich sand overlie one of the buried surfaces. Organic-rich material from that surface, beneath the massive sand, yielded a radiocarbon age that is time-correlative with a series of known eruptive events that generated lahars in the upper Nisqually River valley. Facies CF consists of linear sandbodies or palaeochannels incised into facies S on the lower delta plain. Radiocarbon ages of wood fragments in the sandy channel-fill deposits also correlate in time to lahar deposits in upstream areas. Intrusive, sand-filled dikes and sills indicate liquefaction caused by post-depositional ground shaking related to earthquakes. Continued progradation of the delta into Puget Sound is currently balanced by tidal-current reworking, which redistributes sediment into large fields of ebb- and flood-oriented bedforms.
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ArticleGeologic controls on the recent evolution of oyster reefs in Apalachicola Bay and St. George Sound, Florida(Elsevier B.V., 2010-05-10) Twichell, David C. ; Edmiston, L. ; Andrews, Brian D. ; Stevenson, W. ; Donoghue, J. ; Poore, R. ; Osterman, Lisa E.Apalachicola Bay and St. George Sound contain the largest oyster fishery in Florida, and the growth and distribution of the numerous oyster reefs here are the combined product of modern estuarine conditions in the bay and its late Holocene evolution. Sidescan-sonar imagery, bathymetry, high-resolution seismic profiles, and sediment cores show that oyster beds occupy the crests of a series of shoals that range from 1 to 7 km in length, trend roughly north-south perpendicular to the long axes of the bay and sound, and are asymmetrical with steeper sides facing to the west. Surface sediment samples show that the oyster beds consist of shelly sand, while much of the remainder of the bay floor is covered by mud delivered by the Apalachicola River. The present oyster reefs rest on sandy delta systems that advanced southward across the region between 6400 and 4400 yr BP when sea level was 4–6 m lower than present. Oysters started to colonize the region around 5100 yr BP and became extensive by 1200 and 2400 yr BP. Since 1200 yr BP, their aerial extent has decreased due to burial of the edges of the reefs by the prodelta mud that continues to be supplied by the Apalachicola River. Oyster reefs that are still active are narrower than the original beds, have grown vertically, and become asymmetrical in cross-section. Their internal bedding indicates they have migrated westward, suggesting a net westerly transport of sediment in the bay.
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ArticleGeologic framework of the 2005 Keathley Canyon gas hydrate research well, northern Gulf of Mexico(Elsevier B.V., 2008-05-10) Hutchinson, Deborah R. ; Hart, Patrick E. ; Collett, Timothy S. ; Edwards, K. M. ; Twichell, David C. ; Snyder, FredThe Keathley Canyon sites drilled in 2005 by the Chevron Joint Industry Project are located along the southeastern edge of an intraslope minibasin (Casey basin) in the northern Gulf of Mexico at 1335 m water depth. Around the drill sites, a grid of 2D high-resolution multichannel seismic data designed to image depths down to at least 1000 m sub-bottom reveals 7 unconformities and disconformities that, with the seafloor, bound 7 identifiable seismic stratigraphic units. A major disconformity in the middle of the units stands out for its angular baselapping geometry. From these data, three episodes of sedimentary deposition and deformation are inferred. The oldest episode consists of fine-grained muds deposited during a period of relative stability in the basin (units e, f, and g). Both the BSR and inferred gas hydrate occur within these older units. The gas hydrate occurs in near-vertical fractures. A second episode (units c and d) involved large vertical displacements associated with infilling and ponding of sediment. This second interval corresponds to deposition of intercalated fine and coarse-grained material that was recovered in the drill hole that penetrated the thin edges of the regionally much thicker units. The final episode of deposition (units a and b) occurred during more subdued vertical motions. Hemipelagic drape (unit a) characterizes the modern seafloor. The present-day Casey basin is mostly filled. Its sill is part of a subsiding graben structure that is only 10–20 m shallower than the deepest point in the basin, indicating that gravity-driven transport would mostly bypass the basin. Contemporary faulting along the basin margins has selectively reactivated an older group of faults. The intercalated sand and mud deposits of units c and d are tentatively correlated with Late Pleistocene deposition derived from the western shelf-edge delta/depocenter of the Mississippi River, which was probably most active from 320 ka to 70 ka [Winker, C.D., Booth, J., 2000. Sedimentary dynamics of the salt-dominated continental slope, Gulf of Mexico: integration of observations from the seafloor, near-surface, and deep subsurface. In: Proceedings of the GCSSEPM Foundation 20th Annual Research Conference, Deep-water Reservoirs of the World, pp. 1059–1086]. The presence of sand within the gas hydrate stability zone (in units c and d) is not sufficient to concentrate gas hydrate even though dispersed gas hydrate occurs deeper in the fractured mud/clay-rich sections of units e and f.