Marine Policy Center (MPC)
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The Marine Policy Center (MPC) is the social science research unit of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI). MPC’s research integrates social sciences, such as economics and policy analysis, with WHOI’s basic strength in ocean sciences. Current research focuses on issues such as progress in science and technology, access to and control of marine resources, and conservation and environmental protection. While MPC’s research is based in rigorous academic disciplines, much of it is applied in nature and motivated by current issues in marine resource management and marine industries.
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ArticleA fast re-sampling method for using reliability ratings of sightings with extinction-date estimators: Comment(Ecological Society of America, 2023-06-11) Solow, Andrew R.There is a large amount of literature on estimating the extinction time of a species or population based on a record of its sightings. Reviews include Rivadeneira et al. (2009) and Boakes et al. (2015). Early work in this area assumed that the sightings were all valid (Solow, 2005). In an important contribution, Roberts et al. (2010) pointed out that the validity of many species sightings is uncertain. For example, of 69 sightings of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker (Campephilus principalis) beginning in 1897, Roberts et al. (2010) classified 29 as “controversial.” Notably, all of these post-dated the most recent sightings in 1939 based on physical evidence and 1944 based on expert opinion, with the last one in 2006. The sighting records of three other species reported by Roberts et al. (2010) follow the same general pattern. The concern is that, while valid sightings end with extinction, invalid sightings can continue and simply treating uncertain sightings as valid may lead to an estimate of extinction time that is too late. Conversely, not all uncertain sightings are invalid and simply omitting them may have the opposite effect.
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PreprintAccounting for marine economic activities in large marine ecosystems( 2007-09) Hoagland, Porter ; Jin, DiWe develop an index that is a measure of the intensity of marine activities in large marine ecosystems (LMEs). We compare this marine activity index with an index of socioeconomic development across ocean regions. This comparison identifies regions that may be capable of achieving the sustainable development of their regional marine environment on their own and those that are less likely to do so. The latter may be candidates for international financial or management assistance. An important next step is to carry out detailed case studies designed to improve our understanding of any specific ocean region.
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PreprintAdapting without retreating : responses to shoreline change on an inlet-associated coastal beach( 2017-06-16) Fallon, Andrew R. ; Hoagland, Porter ; Jin, Di ; Phalen, William G. ; Fitzsimons, G. Gray ; Hein, Christopher J.Coastal barrier systems around the world are experiencing higher rates of flooding and shoreline erosion. Property owners on barriers have made significant financial investments in physical protections that shield their nearby properties from these hazards, constituting a type of adaptation to shoreline change. Factors that contribute to adaptation on Plum Island, a developed beach and dune system on the North Shore of Massachusetts, are investigated here. Plum Island experiences patterns of shoreline change that may be representative of many inlet-associated beaches, encompassing an equivocal and dynamically shifting mix of erosion and accretion. In the face of episodic floods and fleeting erosive events, and driven by a combination of strong northeast storms and cycles of erosion and accretion, the value of the average Plum Island residence increases by 34% for properties on the oceanfront where protection comprises a publicly constructed soft structure. Even in the face of state policies that ostensibly discourage physical protection as a means of adaptation, coastal communities face significant political and financial pressures to maintain existing protective structures or to allow contiguous groups of property owners to build new ones through collective action. These factors mitigate against adapting to shoreline change by retreating from the coast, thereby potentially increasing the adverse effects of coastal hazards.
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ArticleAnalysis of energy flow in US GLOBEC ecosystems using end-to-end models(The Oceanography Society, 2013-12) Ruzicka, James J. ; Steele, John H. ; Gaichas, Sarah K. ; Ballerini, Tosca ; Gifford, Dian J. ; Brodeur, Richard D. ; Hofmann, Eileen E.End-to-end models were constructed to examine and compare the trophic structure and energy flow in coastal shelf ecosystems of four US Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics (GLOBEC) study regions: the Northern California Current, the Central Gulf of Alaska, Georges Bank, and the Southwestern Antarctic Peninsula. High-quality data collected on system components and processes over the life of the program were used as input to the models. Although the US GLOBEC program was species-centric, focused on the study of a selected set of target species of ecological or economic importance, we took a broader community-level approach to describe end-to-end energy flow, from nutrient input to fishery production. We built four end-to-end models that were structured similarly in terms of functional group composition and time scale. The models were used to identify the mid-trophic level groups that place the greatest demand on lower trophic level production while providing the greatest support to higher trophic level production. In general, euphausiids and planktivorous forage fishes were the critical energy-transfer nodes; however, some differences between ecosystems are apparent. For example, squid provide an important alternative energy pathway to forage fish, moderating the effects of changes to forage fish abundance in scenario analyses in the Central Gulf of Alaska. In the Northern California Current, large scyphozoan jellyfish are important consumers of plankton production, but can divert energy from the rest of the food web when abundant.
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PreprintAn analysis of fishing vessel accidents in fishing areas off the northeastern United States( 2005-02-17) Jin, Di ; Thunberg, Eric M.Commercial fishing is one of the least safe occupations. Fishing vessel accident probability and vessel trip probability for fishing areas off the northeastern United States were modeled using logit regression and daily data from 1981 to 2000. Fishing vessel accident probability declined over the study period. Higher wind speeds are associated with greater accident probability. Medium size vessels had the highest accident probability before 1994. Within the study region, accident probability was lower in Southern New England and Mid-Atlantic waters than on Georges Bank and in the Gulf of Maine. Accidents are more likely to occur closer to shore than offshore. Accident probability is lower in spring and fall. Changes in fishery management in 1994 have not lead to a general increase in either accident or vessel trip probability. Although higher economic payoff (i.e., revenue of landings) induces more vessels to go fishing, this is not associated with an increase in accidents. The probability models are important building blocks in development and quantitative assessment of management mechanisms related to safety in the commercial fishing industry.
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ArticleAnthropogenic nutrients and harmful algae in coastal waters(Elsevier, 2014-08-28) Davidson, Keith ; Gowen, Richard J. ; Harrison, Paul J. ; Fleming, Lora E. ; Hoagland, Porter ; Moschonas, GrigoriosHarmful algal blooms (HABs) are thought to be increasing in coastal waters worldwide. Anthropogenic nutrient enrichment has been proposed as a principal causative factor of this increase through elevated inorganic and/or organic nutrient concentrations and modified nutrient ratios. We assess: 1) the level of understanding of the link between the amount, form and ratio of anthropogenic nutrients and HABs; 2) the evidence for a link between anthropogenically generated HABs and negative impacts on human health; and 3) the economic implications of anthropogenic nutrient/HAB interactions. We demonstrate that an anthropogenic nutrient-HAB link is far from universal, and where it has been demonstrated, it is most frequently associated with high biomass rather than low biomass (biotoxin producing) HABs. While organic nutrients have been shown to support the growth of a range of HAB species, insufficient evidence exists to clearly establish if these nutrients specifically promote the growth of harmful species in preference to benign ones, or if/how they influence toxicity of harmful species. We conclude that the role of anthropogenic nutrients in promoting HABs is site-specific, with hydrodynamic processes often determining whether blooms occur. We also find a lack of evidence of widespread significant adverse health impacts from anthropogenic nutrient-generated HABs, although this may be partly due to a lack of human/animal health and HAB monitoring. Detailed economic evaluation and cost/benefit analysis of the impact of anthropogenically generated HABs, or nutrient reduction schemes to alleviate them, is also frequently lacking.
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PreprintApplying portfolio management to implement Ecosystem-Based Fishery Management (EBFM)( 2016-05-19) Jin, Di ; DePiper, Geret ; Hoagland, PorterPortfolio management has been suggested as a tool to help implement ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM). The portfolio approach involves the application of financial portfolio theory to multispecies fishery management to account for species interdependencies, uncertainty, and sustainability constraints. By considering covariance among species, this approach allows economic risks and returns to be calculated across varying combinations of stock sizes. Tradeoffs between expected aggregate returns and portfolio risk can thus be assessed. We develop a procedure for constructing portfolio models to help implement EBFM in the northeastern United States, using harvest data from the National Marine Fisheries Service. Extending the work of Sanchirico et al. (2008), we propose a measure of excessive risk taking, which may be used by managers to monitor signals of non-optimal harvests. In addition, we conduct portfolio assessments of historical commercial fishing performance at different accounting stances: the large marine ecosystem, the New England region, and the community (fishing ports). We show that portfolio analysis could inform management at each level. Results of the study suggest that excessive risk taking is associated with overfishing, and risk management is therefore important for ensuring sustainability.
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PreprintAquaculture and capture fisheries : a conceptual approach toward an integrated economic-ecological analysis( 2012-08-02) Jin, DiThis study presents a framework for analyzing the interactions between aquaculture and capture fisheries in the context of ecosystem-based management. We extend a model of the economic and ecological systems in coastal New England by incorporating an aquaculture sector in a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and by examining the forage fish and aquaculture link in a marine food web. We show that aquaculture and commercial fisheries interact in a complex way throughout the economic and ecological systems.
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ArticleAre marine protected areas a red herring or fisheries panacea?(National Research Council Canada, 2005-05-31) Kaiser, Michel J.Chronic failures in marine fisheries management have led some to suggest that marine protected areas (MPAs) are the solution to achieve sustainable fisheries. While such systems work for certain habitat-specific and nonmobile species, their utility for highly mobile stocks is questionable. Often the debate among proponents and critics of MPAs is confused by a lack of appreciation of the goals and objectives of such systems. The current consideration of MPAs as the basis of future fisheries management is a symptom of, and not the singular solution to, the problem of inappropriate implementation of fishing effort controls. The latter will provide greater overall conservation benefits if properly applied. Any future use of MPAs as an effective tool to achieve sustainable fisheries management in temperate systems should be treated as a large-scale, rigorously designed experiment to ensure that the outcome of using MPAs is interpreted correctly and not discredited for false reasons.
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PreprintAre there eco-metrics for fisheries?( 2005-11-03) Steele, John H.Ecosystem based management of marine resources is a worthy ideal. At present, however, the science is unable to measure and relate the fundamental concepts of diversity, productivity and resilience required for management decisions. Further, we do not have legal or fiscal measures that would allow us to allocate these resources to reserves, fishing quotas or fish farms. A proper appreciation of these shortcomings is needed.
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ArticleAssessment of management to mitigate anthropogenic effects on large whales(John Wiley & Sons, 2012-10-01) van der Hoop, Julie ; Moore, Michael J. ; Barco, Susan G. ; Cole, Timothy V. N. ; Daoust, Pierre-Yves ; Henry, Allison G. ; McAlpine, Donald F. ; McLellan, William A. ; Wimmer, Tonya ; Solow, Andrew R.United States and Canadian governments have responded to legal requirements to reduce human-induced whale mortality via vessel strikes and entanglement in fishing gear by implementing a suite of regulatory actions. We analyzed the spatial and temporal patterns of mortality of large whales in the Northwest Atlantic (23.5°N to 48.0°N), 1970 through 2009, in the context of management changes. We used a multinomial logistic model fitted by maximum likelihood to detect trends in cause-specific mortalities with time. We compared the number of human-caused mortalities with U.S. federally established levels of potential biological removal (i.e., species-specific sustainable human-caused mortality). From 1970 through 2009, 1762 mortalities (all known) and serious injuries (likely fatal) involved 8 species of large whales. We determined cause of death for 43% of all mortalities; of those, 67% (502) resulted from human interactions. Entanglement in fishing gear was the primary cause of death across all species (n= 323), followed by natural causes (n= 248) and vessel strikes (n= 171). Established sustainable levels of mortality were consistently exceeded in 2 species by up to 650%. Probabilities of entanglement and vessel-strike mortality increased significantly from 1990 through 2009. There was no significant change in the local intensity of all or vessel-strike mortalities before and after 2003, the year after which numerous mitigation efforts were enacted. So far, regulatory efforts have not reduced the lethal effects of human activities to large whales on a population-range basis, although we do not exclude the possibility of success of targeted measures for specific local habitats that were not within the resolution of our analyses. It is unclear how shortfalls in management design or compliance relate to our findings. Analyses such as the one we conducted are crucial in critically evaluating wildlife-management decisions. The results of these analyses can provide managers with direction for modifying regulated measures and can be applied globally to mortality-driven conservation issues.
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PreprintAttitudinal factors and personal characteristics influence support for shellfish aquaculture in Rhode Island (US) coastal waters( 2018-03) Dalton, Tracey M. ; Jin, DiThis study explores public interests associated with shellfish aquaculture development in coastal waters of Rhode Island (US). Specifically, we examine (1) the levels of public support for (or opposition to) shellfish aquaculture development and (2) factors driving the levels of support, using survey data and ordinal logistic regressions. Results of the analysis identify several key attitudinal factors affecting individual’s support for shellfish aquaculture in Rhode Island (RI). The level of support is positively associated with attitudes related to shellfish aquaculture’s benefits to the local economy and its role as a nutritional food option, and negatively influenced by attitudes related to aquaculture farms’ effects on aesthetic quality and their interference with other uses. Findings highlight that support for (or opposition to) aquaculture in RI is driven more by attitudes associated with social impacts than by those associated with environmental impacts. The level of support is also affected by personal characteristics related to an individual’s participation in recreational activities. For instance, bicycle riders tend to be supportive of shellfish aquaculture while respondents who participate in sailing and birding are less supportive. By identifying the broader public’s interests in shellfish aquaculture, findings from this study and others like it can be used to address public concerns, incorporate public perceptions and attitudes into permitting decisions, and develop outreach targeted at specific stakeholder groups.
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PreprintBalancing end-to-end budgets of the Georges Bank ecosystem( 2007-05-09) Steele, John H. ; Collie, Jeremy S. ; Bisagni, James J. ; Gifford, Dian J. ; Fogarty, Michael J. ; Link, Jason S. ; Sullivan, B. K. ; Sieracki, Michael E. ; Beet, Andrew R. ; Mountain, David G. ; Durbin, Edward G. ; Palka, D. ; Stockhausen, W. T.Oceanographic regimes on the continental shelf display a great range in the time scales of physical exchange, biochemical processes and trophic transfers. The close surface-to-seabed physical coupling at intermediate scales of weeks to months means that the open ocean simplification to a purely pelagic food web is inadequate. Top-down trophic depictions, starting from the fish populations, are insufficient to constrain a system involving extensive nutrient recycling at lower trophic levels and subject to physical forcing as well as fishing. These pelagic-benthic interactions are found on all continental shelves but are particularly important on the relatively shallow Georges Bank in the northwest Atlantic. We have generated budgets for the lower food web for three physical regimes (well mixed, transitional and stratified) and for three seasons (spring, summer and fall/winter). The calculations show that vertical mixing and lateral exchange between the three regimes are important for zooplankton production as well as for nutrient input. Benthic suspension feeders are an additional critical pathway for transfers to higher trophic levels. Estimates of production by mesozooplankton, benthic suspension feeders and deposit feeders, derived primarily from data collected during the GLOBEC years of 1995-1999, provide input to an upper food web. Diets of commercial fish populations are used to calculate food requirements in three fish categories, planktivores, benthivores and piscivores, for four decades, 1963-2002, between which there were major changes in the fish communities. Comparisons of inputs from the lower web with fish energetic requirements for plankton and benthos indicate that we obtained reasonable agreement for the last three decades, 1973 to 2002. However, for the first decade, the fish food requirements were significantly less than the inputs. This decade, 1963-1972, corresponds to a period characterized by a strong Labrador Current and lower nitrate levels at the shelf edge, demonstrating how strong bottom-up physical forcing may determine overall fish yields.
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Technical ReportA bibliographic listing of coastal and marine protected areas : a global survey(Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, 1986-01) Silva, Maynard E. ; Gately, Ellen M. ; Desilvestre, IngridThis document is the result of a survey of over 600 books, articles, technical reports and personal correspondence reviewing approximately 1,000 coastal and marine protected areas in 87 countries and, in turn, was intended to support a larger project that had been undertaken by the Marine Policy and Ocean Management Center of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in conjunction with the Government of Ecuador to consider the establishment of protected status for the marine area of the Galapagos Archipelago. To provide background for this larger project, a review of existing or proposed marine protect ed areas was initiated. This bibliographic listing is one result of this review.
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Technical ReportBibliography of socio-economic studies : fisheries of the northeast U.S.(Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, 1981-11) Ladner, Rosamund ; Smith, Leah J. ; Peterson, Susan B. ; Wilson, JamesThis bibliography of social and economic studies of the fisheries of the Northeast United States (Maine to North Carolina) includes annotated listings for each entry and an index of key words for cross-referencing. We have attempted to include all studies published since 1970, and a selected group of particularly significant studies done earlier. The major focus has been on commercial fisheries, but recreational fishing studies have also been included when possible. In addition to studies of the Northeast United States fisheries, studies of Canadian fishing subsidies, European and other markets, have been included because of their relevance to the regional industry. All stages of the fishing industry's operation - harvesting, processing, distribution, marketing - are included, along with management and policy oriented material.
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Working PaperBiological assessment for a blue mussel ocean aquaculture experiment in Rhode Island Sound(Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, 1998-04) Hoagland, Porter ; Kite-Powell, Hauke L. ; Paul, Walter ; Hampson, George R.This report assesses the potential biological impacts on certain protected species of the deployment of a longline for growing blue mussels (Mytilus edulis) in Rhode Island Sound. The proposed project is a scientific research experiment designed to test the feasibility of offshore aquaculture from engineering, biological, and economic perspectives. The proposed project is small in scale, limited in duration, and located in an area of the ocean that is known to be only a minor, nonessential habitat for the protected species of concern. Of crucial significance to the relevant protected species and to the project, the project's geographic location is not believed to be critical habitat in even the broadest sense of the term. The project does not involve feeding mussels or treating the mussels with any type of pharmaceuticals. The project relies upon a set of spat from naturally occurring stocks in the region. As a result, the project principal investigators believe that the potential for adverse effects on individuals or stocks of protected species or on their environment is extremely small.
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ArticleBiological invasion costs reveal insufficient proactive management worldwide(Elsevier, 2022-05-01) Cuthbert, Ross N. ; Diagne, Christophe ; Hudgins, Emma J. ; Turbelin, Anna J. ; Ahmed, Danish A. ; Albert, Céline ; Bodey, Thomas W. ; Briski, Elizabeta ; Essl, Franz ; Haubrock, Phillip J. ; Gozlan, Rodolphe E. ; Kirichenko, Natalia ; Kourantidou, Melina ; Kramer, Andrew M. ; Courchamp, FranckThe global increase in biological invasions is placing growing pressure on the management of ecological and economic systems. However, the effectiveness of current management expenditure is difficult to assess due to a lack of standardised measurement across spatial, taxonomic and temporal scales. Furthermore, there is no quantification of the spending difference between pre-invasion (e.g. prevention) and post-invasion (e.g. control) stages, although preventative measures are considered to be the most cost-effective. Here, we use a comprehensive database of invasive alien species economic costs (InvaCost) to synthesise and model the global management costs of biological invasions, in order to provide a better understanding of the stage at which these expenditures occur. Since 1960, reported management expenditures have totalled at least US$95.3 billion (in 2017 values), considering only highly reliable and actually observed costs — 12-times less than damage costs from invasions ($1130.6 billion). Pre-invasion management spending ($2.8 billion) was over 25-times lower than post-invasion expenditure ($72.7 billion). Management costs were heavily geographically skewed towards North America (54%) and Oceania (30%). The largest shares of expenditures were directed towards invasive alien invertebrates in terrestrial environments. Spending on invasive alien species management has grown by two orders of magnitude since 1960, reaching an estimated $4.2 billion per year globally (in 2017 values) in the 2010s, but remains 1–2 orders of magnitude lower than damages. National management spending increased with incurred damage costs, with management actions delayed on average by 11 years globally following damage reporting. These management delays on the global level have caused an additional invasion cost of approximately $1.2 trillion, compared to scenarios with immediate management. Our results indicate insufficient management — particularly pre-invasion — and urge better investment to prevent future invasions and to control established alien species. Recommendations to improve reported management cost comprehensiveness, resolution and terminology are also made.
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Technical ReportA broad-scale profile of the marine advanced technology industry(Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, 1988-03) Kite-Powell, Hauke L.Within the maritime sector of the United States economy, in which many industries are largely moribund (shipbuilding), flagging (international shipping), or often in disarray (fisheries), electronic marine instrumentation stands out as a field showing outstanding growth performance and potential. Marine instrumentation may well be an area of international competition in which United States companies can achieve sustained growth. While U.S. companies have been playing a dominant role in this market in the past, virtually no systematic study has been devoted to the sources or durability of their competitive advantage, or to the steps that might be taken to promote their future competitiveness. A Marine Policy Center project funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) through the Massachusetts Centers of Excellence Corporation (MCEC) is now beginning to provide some of this information. The Marine Policy Center project is attempting to describe and analyze the industry structure and competitive position of U.S. marine electronics companies. The first cut at a definition of the marine advanced technology industry detailed in this technical report represents part of the background research for this project. Complementary studies by researchers at Florida State University and Hawaii's Oceanic Institute will project areas of future market potential for marine electronic instrumentation. By building on and refining the industry profile presented in this technical report,the NOAA/MCEC project will provide greater insight into the important features of the "high technology" sector of the U.S. marine industry, and into the factors that determine its competitive position in the American and international markets. The resulting understanding of the industry will enable industry and government to make better informed policy decisions to nurture the continuing viability and competitiveness of U.S. marine electronics firms in the years to come.
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Working PaperBusiness planning handbook for the ocean aquaculture of blue mussels(Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, 2003-09) Hoagland, Porter ; Kite-Powell, Hauke L. ; Jin, DiFor prospective growers of blue mussels (Mytilus edulis) in New England marine waters, this handbook is designed to be useful for assessing the structure of the market (including industrial organization and regulation), for making informed choices about organizational form, and for planning aquaculture business development. Importantly, we discuss methods for evaluating environmental and market risks. Where possible, we identify web-based and other sources of information to aid in business planning and in the design and operation of an ocean aquaculture business specializing in the production of blue mussels.
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ArticleThe challenge to detect and attribute effects of climate change on human and natural systems(Springer, 2013-08-30) Stone, Daithi ; Auffhammer, Maximilian ; Carey, Mark ; Hansen, Gerrit ; Huggel, Christian ; Cramer, Wolfgang ; Lobell, David ; Molau, Ulf ; Solow, Andrew R. ; Tibig, Lourdes ; Yohe, GaryAnthropogenic climate change has triggered impacts on natural and human systems world-wide, yet the formal scientific method of detection and attribution has been only insufficiently described. Detection and attribution of impacts of climate change is a fundamentally cross-disciplinary issue, involving concepts, terms, and standards spanning the varied requirements of the various disciplines. Key problems for current assessments include the limited availability of long-term observations, the limited knowledge on processes and mechanisms involved in changing environmental systems, and the widely different concepts applied in the scientific literature. In order to facilitate current and future assessments, this paper describes the current conceptual framework of the field and outlines a number of conceptual challenges. Based on this, it proposes workable cross-disciplinary definitions, concepts, and standards. The paper is specifically intended to serve as a baseline for continued development of a consistent cross-disciplinary framework that will facilitate integrated assessment of the detection and attribution of climate change impacts.