Report of the five-day forecasting procedure, verification and research as conducted between July 1940 and August 1941

Abstract

The present report is intended to cover fully the activities of the long-range forecast project both at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and at the U. S. Weather Bureau in Washington, between July 1, 1940, and August 1, 1941. It includes all material bearing on the activities of the current fiscal year which has appeared in the three progress reports that were written during the year. The report is in four sections. Section I outlines the administrative set-up of the project and its transfer from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology to the U. S. Weather Bureau in Washington, indicates the general purpose of the project, outlines the program of routine synoptic and statistical work which is maintained as a necessary part of the five-day forecast service, and lists the personnel which has been available to carry on the project. Section II covers in some detail the five-day forecast procedure as practiced during the past year, including one illustrative case selected and discussed by Mr. Namias. The discussion of the five-day forecast procedure is concluded with some remarks on the significance of the results obtained by the basic method and a summary by Mr. Allen of the success of the forecasts as shown by the statistical verification of the forecast temperature and precipitation anomalies. Section III contains a brief discussion of each of the special investigations made during the past year which bear on the five-day forecast problem. For the most part, the results of these investigations were not obtained soon enough to be incorporated in the forecast procedure outlined in Section II. Section IV sets forth recommendations for further theoretical, synoptic and statistical research which is needed to develop and extend the five-day forecasting technique which has been developed by this project.