Prinn Ronald G.

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Prinn
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Ronald G.
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  • Preprint
    An analysis of the carbon balance of the Arctic Basin from 1997 to 2006
    ( 2010-06-18) McGuire, A. David ; Hayes, Daniel J. ; Kicklighter, David W. ; Manizza, Manfredi ; Zhuang, Qianlai ; Chen, Min ; Follows, Michael J. ; Gurney, Kevin R. ; McClelland, James W. ; Melillo, Jerry M. ; Peterson, Bruce J. ; Prinn, Ronald G.
    This study used several model-based tools to analyze the dynamics of the Arctic Basin between 1997 and 2006 as a linked system of land-ocean-atmosphere C exchange. The analysis estimates that terrestrial areas of the Arctic Basin lost 62.9 Tg C yr-1 and that the Arctic Ocean gained 94.1 Tg C yr-1. Arctic lands and oceans were a net CO2 sink of 108.9 Tg C yr-1, which is within the range of uncertainty in estimates from atmospheric inversions. Although both lands and oceans of the Arctic were estimated to be CO2 sinks, the land sink diminished in strength because of increased fire disturbance compared to previous decades, while the ocean sink increased in strength because of increased biological pump activity associated with reduced sea ice cover. Terrestrial areas of the Arctic were a net source of 41.5 Tg CH4 yr-1 that increased by 0.6 Tg CH4 yr-1 during the decade of analysis, a magnitude that is comparable with an atmospheric inversion of CH4. Because the radiative forcing of the estimated CH4 emissions is much greater than the CO2 sink, the analysis suggests that the Arctic Basin is a substantial net source of green house gas forcing to the climate system.
  • Preprint
    The terrestrial biosphere as a net source of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere
    ( 2015-12-21) Tian, Hanqin ; Lu, Chaoqun ; Ciais, Philippe ; Michalak, Anna M. ; Canadell, Josep G. ; Saikawa, Eri ; Huntzinger, Deborah N. ; Gurney, Kevin R. ; Sitch, Stephen ; Zhang, Bowen ; Yang, Jia ; Bousquet, Philippe ; Bruhwiler, Lori ; Chen, Guangsheng ; Dlugokencky, Edward J. ; Friedlingstein, Pierre ; Melillo, Jerry M. ; Pan, Shufen ; Poulter, Benjamin ; Prinn, Ronald G. ; Saunois, Marielle ; Schwalm, Christopher R. ; Wofsy, Steven C.
    The terrestrial biosphere can release or absorb the greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) and therefore plays an important role in regulating atmospheric composition and climate1. Anthropogenic activities such as land use change, agricultural and waste management have altered terrestrial biogenic greenhouse gas fluxes and the resulting increases in methane and nitrous oxide emissions in particular can contribute to climate warming2,3. The terrestrial biogenic fluxes of individual greenhouse gases have been studied extensively4-6, but the net biogenic greenhouse gas balance as a result of anthropogenic activities and its effect on the climate system remains uncertain. Here we use bottom-up (BU: e.g., inventory, statistical extrapolation of local flux measurements, process-based modeling) and top-down (TD: atmospheric inversions) approaches to quantify the global net biogenic greenhouse gas balance between 1981-2010 as a result of anthropogenic activities and its effect on the climate system. We find that the cumulative warming capacity of concurrent biogenic CH4 and N2O emissions is about a factor of 2 larger than the cooling effect resulting from the global land CO2 uptake in the 2000s. This results in a net positive cumulative impact of the three GHGs on the planetary energy budget, with a best estimate of 3.9±3.8 Pg CO2 eq/yr (TD) and 5.4±4.8 Pg CO2 eq/yr (BU) based on the GWP 100 metric (global warming potential on a 100-year time horizon). Our findings suggest that a reduction in agricultural CH4 and N2O emissions in particular in Southern Asia may help mitigate climate change.
  • Preprint
    Effects of ozone on net primary production and carbon sequestration in the conterminous United States using a biogeochemistry model
    ( 2003-11-25) Felzer, Benjamin S. ; Kicklighter, David W. ; Melillo, Jerry M. ; Wang, C. ; Zhuang, Qianlai ; Prinn, Ronald G.
    The effects of air pollution on vegetation may provide an important control on the carbon cycle that has not yet been widely considered. Prolonged exposure to high levels of ozone, in particular, has been observed to inhibit photosynthesis by direct cellular damage within the leaves and through possible changes in stomatal conductance. We have incorporated empirical equations derived for trees (hardwoods and pines) and crops into the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model to explore the effects of ozone on net primary production and carbon sequestration across the conterminous United States. Our results show a 2.6 – 6.8% mean reduction for the U.S. in annual Net Primary Production (NPP) in response to modeled historical ozone levels during the late 1980s-early 1990s. The largest decreases (over 13% in some locations) occur in the Midwest agricultural lands, during the mid-summer when ozone levels are highest. Carbon sequestration since the 1950s has been reduced by 18 - 38 Tg C yr-1 with the presence of ozone. Thus the effects of ozone on NPP and carbon sequestration should be factored into future calculations of the US carbon budget.
  • Preprint
    Consumption of atmospheric hydrogen during the life cycle of soil-dwelling actinobacteria
    ( 2013-10) Meredith, Laura K. ; Rao, Deepa ; Bosak, Tanja ; Klepac-Ceraj, Vanja ; Tada, Kendall R. ; Hansel, Colleen M. ; Ono, Shuhei ; Prinn, Ronald G.
    Microbe-mediated soil uptake is the largest and most uncertain variable in the budget of atmospheric hydrogen (H2). The diversity and ecophysiological role of soil microorganisms that can consume low atmospheric abundances of H2 with high-affinity [NiFe]-hydrogenases is unknown. We expanded the library of atmospheric H2-consuming strains to include four soil Harvard Forest Isolate (HFI) Streptomyces spp., Streptomyces cattleya, and Rhodococcus equi by assaying for high-affinity hydrogenase (hhyL) genes and quantifying H2 uptake rates. We find that aerial structures (hyphae and spores) are important for Streptomyces H2 consumption; uptake was not observed in Streptomyces griseoflavus Tu4000 (deficient in aerial structures) and was reduced by physical disruption of Streptomyces sp. HFI8 aerial structures. H2 consumption depended on the life cycle stage in developmentally distinct actinobacteria: Streptomyces sp. HFI8 (sporulating) and R. equi (non-sporulating, non-filamentous). Strain HFI8 took up H2 only after forming aerial hyphae and sporulating, while R. equi only consumed H2 in the late exponential and stationary phase. These observations suggest that conditions favoring H2 uptake by actinobacteria are associated with energy and nutrient limitation. Thus, H2 may be an important energy source for soil microorganisms inhabiting systems in which nutrients are frequently limited.
  • Preprint
    Future effects of ozone on carbon sequestration and climate change policy using a global biogeochemical model
    ( 2004-10-29) Felzer, Benjamin S. ; Reilly, John M. ; Melillo, Jerry M. ; Kicklighter, David W. ; Sarofim, Marcus C. ; Wang, C. ; Prinn, Ronald G. ; Zhuang, Qianlai
    Exposure of plants to ozone inhibits photosynthesis and therefore reduces vegetation production and carbon sequestration. The reduced carbon storage would then require further reductions in fossil fuel emissions to meet a given CO2 concentration target, thereby increasing the cost of meeting the target. Simulations with the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) for the historical period (1860-1995) show the largest damages occur in the Southeast and Midwestern regions of the United States, eastern Europe, and eastern China. The largest reductions in carbon storage for the period 1950-1995, 41%, occur in eastern Europe. Scenarios for the 21st century developed with the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM) lead to even greater negative effects on carbon storage in the future. In some regions, current land carbon sinks become carbon sources, and this change leads to carbon sequestration decreases of up to 0.4 Pg C yr-1 due to damage in some regional ozone hot spots. With a climate policy, failing to consider the effects of ozone damage on carbon sequestration would raise the global costs over the next century of stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of CO2 equivalents at 550 ppm by 6 to 21%. Because stabilization at 550 ppm will reduce emission of other gases that cause ozone, these additional benefits are estimated to be between 5 and 25% of the cost of the climate policy. Tropospheric ozone effects on terrestrial ecosystems thus produce a surprisingly large feedback in estimating climate policy costs that, heretofore, has not been included in cost estimates.
  • Preprint
    Global economic effects of changes in crops, pasture, and forests due to changing climate, carbon dioxide, and ozone
    ( 2006-01) Reilly, John M. ; Paltsev, Sergey ; Felzer, Benjamin S. ; Wang, X. ; Kicklighter, David W. ; Melillo, Jerry M. ; Prinn, Ronald G. ; Sarofim, Marcus C. ; Sokolov, Andrei P. ; Wang, C.
    Multiple environmental changes will have consequences for global vegetation. To the extent that crop yields and pasture and forest productivity are affected there can be important economic consequences. We examine the combined effects of changes in climate, increases in carbon dioxide, and changes in tropospheric ozone on crop, pasture, and forest lands and the consequences for the global and regional economies. We examine scenarios where there is limited or little effort to control these substances, and policy scenarios that limit emissions of CO2 and ozone precursors. We find the effects of climate and CO2 to be generally positive, and the effects of ozone to be very detrimental. Unless ozone is strongly controlled damage could offset CO2 and climate benefits. We find that resource allocation among sectors in the economy, and trade among countries, can strongly affect the estimate of economic effect in a country.