Karnauskas
Kristopher B.
Karnauskas
Kristopher B.
No Thumbnail Available
Search Results
Now showing
1 - 4 of 4
-
ArticleNorth Atlantic salinity as a predictor of Sahel rainfall(American Association for the Advancement of Science., 2016-05-06) Li, Laifang ; Schmitt, Raymond W. ; Ummenhofer, Caroline C. ; Karnauskas, Kristopher B.Water evaporating from the ocean sustains precipitation on land. This ocean-to-land moisture transport leaves an imprint on sea surface salinity (SSS). Thus, the question arises of whether variations in SSS can provide insight into terrestrial precipitation. This study provides evidence that springtime SSS in the subtropical North Atlantic ocean can be used as a predictor of terrestrial precipitation during the subsequent summer monsoon in Africa. Specifically, increased springtime SSS in the central to eastern subtropical North Atlantic tends to be followed by above-normal monsoon-season precipitation in the African Sahel. In the spring, high SSS is associated with enhanced moisture flux divergence from the subtropical oceans, which converges over the African Sahel and helps to elevate local soil moisture content. From spring to the summer monsoon season, the initial water cycling signal is preserved, amplified, and manifested in excessive precipitation. According to our analysis of currently available soil moisture data sets, this 3-month delay is attributable to a positive coupling between soil moisture, moisture flux convergence, and precipitation in the Sahel. Because of the physical connection between salinity, ocean-to-land moisture transport, and local soil moisture feedback, seasonal forecasts of Sahel precipitation can be improved by incorporating SSS into prediction models. Thus, expanded monitoring of ocean salinity should contribute to more skillful predictions of precipitation in vulnerable subtropical regions, such as the Sahel.
-
ArticleImplications of North Atlantic sea surface salinity for summer precipitation over the U.S. Midwest : mechanisms and predictive value(American Meteorological Society, 2016-04-19) Li, Laifang ; Schmitt, Raymond W. ; Ummenhofer, Caroline C. ; Karnauskas, Kristopher B.Moisture originating from the subtropical North Atlantic feeds precipitation throughout the Western Hemisphere. This ocean-to-land moisture transport leaves its imprint on sea surface salinity (SSS), enabling SSS over the subtropical oceans to be used as an indicator of terrestrial precipitation. This study demonstrates that springtime SSS over the northwestern portion of the subtropical North Atlantic significantly correlates with summertime precipitation over the U.S. Midwest. The linkage between springtime SSS and the Midwest summer precipitation is established through ocean-to-land moisture transport followed by a soil moisture feedback over the southern United States. In the spring, high SSS over the northwestern subtropical Atlantic coincides with a local increase in moisture flux divergence. The moisture flux is then directed toward and converges over the southern United States, which experiences increased precipitation and soil moisture. The increased soil moisture influences the regional water cycle both thermodynamically and dynamically, leading to excessive summer precipitation in the Midwest. Thermodynamically, the increased soil moisture tends to moisten the lower troposphere and enhances the meridional humidity gradient north of 36°N. Thus, more moisture will be transported and converged into the Midwest by the climatological low-level wind. Dynamically, the increases in soil moisture over the southern United States enhance the west–east soil moisture gradient eastward of the Rocky Mountains, which can help to intensify the Great Plains low-level jet in the summer, converging more moisture into the Midwest. Owing to these robust physical linkages, the springtime SSS outweighs the leading SST modes in predicting the Midwest summer precipitation and significantly improves rainfall prediction in this region.
-
ArticlePredicting Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity using outgoing longwave radiation over Africa(John Wiley & Sons, 2016-07-08) Karnauskas, Kristopher B. ; Li, LaifangSeasonal hurricane activity is a function of the amount of initial disturbances (e.g., easterly waves) and the background environment in which they develop into tropical storms (i.e., the main development region). Focusing on the former, a set of indices based solely upon the meridional structure of satellite-derived outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) over the African continent are shown to be capable of predicting Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity with very high rates of success. Predictions of named storms based on the July OLR field and trained only on the time period prior to the year being predicted yield a success rate of 87%, compared to the success rate of NOAA's August outlooks of 53% over the same period and with the same average uncertainty range (±2). The resulting OLR indices are statistically robust, highly detectable, physically linked to the predictand, and may account for longer-term observed trends.
-
ArticleLongwave emission trends over Africa and implications for Atlantic hurricanes(John Wiley & Sons, 2017-09-09) Zhang, Lei ; Rechtman, Thomas ; Karnauskas, Kristopher B. ; Li, Laifang ; Donnelly, Jeffrey P. ; Kossin, James P.The latitudinal gradient of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) over Africa is a skillful and physically based predictor of seasonal Atlantic hurricane activity. The African OLR gradient is observed to have strengthened during the satellite era, as predicted by state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) in response to greenhouse gas forcing. Prior to the satellite era and the U.S. and European clean air acts, the African OLR gradient weakened due to aerosol forcing of the opposite sign. GCMs predict a continuation of the increasing OLR gradient in response to greenhouse gas forcing. Assuming a steady linear relationship between African easterly waves and tropical cyclogenesis, this result suggests a future increase in Atlantic tropical cyclone frequency by 10% (20%) at the end of the 21st century under the RCP 4.5 (8.5) forcing scenario.