Anderson
Donald M.
Anderson
Donald M.
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Book chapterImproving the accuracy and utility of harmful algal bloom forecasting systems( 2006-05) Anderson, Donald M. ; Keafer, Bruce A. ; McGillicuddy, Dennis J. ; Solow, Andrew R. ; Kleindinst, Judith L.One of the goals of harmful algal bloom (HAB) research has been to develop predictive capabilities for blooms. Major steps have been made towards this goal, including the development of physical-biological models of HAB species that simulate bloom dynamics in specific regions. In the Gulf of Maine region of the northeastern U.S., models have been developed that have considerable skill in simulating blooms of Alexandrium fundyense, the causative organism for paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP) outbreaks in the region. This model is now being used for both short-term and long-term forecasts. This paper describes several ongoing activities that will improve the accuracy and usefulness of the model and forecasts. These include efforts to streamline or minimize the sampling and analysis requirements of annual A. fundyense cyst surveys, efforts to quantitatively describe or characterize the severity of predicted outbreaks, and plans to obtain real-time data on Alexandrium cell abundance and toxicity that can be assimilated into the models. Together, these and other activities are moving us towards an operational forecasting system for Alexandrium blooms in the region.
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PreprintAlexandrium fundyense cysts in the Gulf of Maine : long-term time series of abundance and distribution, and linkages to past and future blooms( 2013-10) Anderson, Donald M. ; Keafer, Bruce A. ; Kleindinst, Judith L. ; McGillicuddy, Dennis J. ; Martin, Jennifer L. ; Norton, Kerry ; Pilskaln, Cynthia H. ; Smith, Juliette L. ; Sherwood, Christopher R. ; Butman, BradfordHere we document Alexandrium fundyense cyst abundance and distribution patterns over nine years (1997 and 2004-2011) in the coastal waters of the Gulf of Maine (GOM) and identify linkages between those patterns and several metrics of the severity or magnitude of blooms occurring before and after each autumn cyst survey. We also explore the relative utility of two measures of cyst abundance and demonstrate that GOM cyst counts can be normalized to sediment volume, revealing meaningful patterns equivalent to those determined with dry weight normalization.Cyst concentrations were highly variable spatially. Two distinct 1 seedbeds (defined here as accumulation zones with > 300 cysts cm-3) are evident, one in the Bay of Fundy (BOF) and one in mid-coast Maine. Overall, seedbed locations remained relatively constant through time, but their area varied 3-4 fold, and total cyst abundance more than 10 fold among years. A major expansion of the mid-coast Maine seedbed occurred in 2009 following an unusually intense A. fundyense bloom with visible red-water conditions, but that feature disappeared by late 2010. The regional system thus has only two seedbeds with the bathymetry, sediment characteristics, currents, biology, and environmental conditions necessary to persist for decades or longer. Strong positive correlations were confirmed between the abundance of cysts in both the 0-1 and the 0-3 cm layers of sediments in autumn and geographic measures of the extent of the bloom that occurred the next year (i.e., cysts → blooms), such as the length of coastline closed due to shellfish toxicity or the southernmost latitude of shellfish closures. In general, these metrics of bloom geographic extent did not correlate with the number of cysts in sediments following the blooms (blooms → cysts). There are, however, significant positive correlations between 0-3 cm cyst abundances and metrics of the preceding bloom that are indicative of bloom intensity or vegetative cell abundance (e.g., cumulative shellfish toxicity, duration of detectable toxicity in shellfish, and bloom termination date). These data suggest that it may be possible to use cyst abundance to empirically forecast the geographic extent of the forthcoming bloom and, conversely, to use other metrics from bloom and toxicity events to forecast the size of the subsequent cyst population as the inoculum for the next year’s bloom. This is an important step towards understanding the excystment/encystment cycle in A. fundyense bloom dynamics while also augmenting our predictive capability for this HAB-forming species in the GOM.
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PreprintCategorizing the severity of paralytic shellfish poisoning outbreaks in the Gulf of Maine for forecasting and management( 2013-03) Kleindinst, Judith L. ; Anderson, Donald M. ; McGillicuddy, Dennis J. ; Stumpf, Richard P. ; Fisher, Kathleen M. ; Couture, Darcie A. ; Hickey, J. Michael ; Nash, ChristopherDevelopment of forecasting systems for harmful algal blooms (HABs) has been a long-standing research and management goal. Significant progress has been made in the Gulf of Maine, where seasonal bloom forecasts are now being issued annually using Alexandrium fundyense cyst abundance maps and a population dynamics model developed for that organism. Thus far these forecasts have used terms such as “significant”, “moderately large” or “moderate” to convey the extent of forecasted paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP) outbreaks. In this study, historical shellfish harvesting closure data along the coast of the Gulf of Maine were used to derive a series of bloom severity levels that are analogous to those used to define major storms like hurricanes or tornados. Thirty-four years of PSP-related shellfish closure data for Maine, Massachusetts and New Hampshire were collected and mapped to depict the extent of coastline closure in each year. Due to fractal considerations, different methods were explored for measuring length of coastline closed. Ultimately, a simple procedure was developed using arbitrary straight-line segments to represent specific sections of the coastline. This method was consistently applied to each year’s PSP toxicity closure map to calculate the total length of coastline closed. Maps were then clustered together statistically to yield distinct groups of years with similar characteristics. A series of categories or levels was defined (“Level 1: Limited”, “Level 2: Moderate”, and “Level 3: Extensive”) each with an associated range of expected coastline closed, which can now be used instead of vague descriptors in future forecasts. This will provide scientifically consistent and simply defined information to the public as well as resource managers who make decisions on the basis of the forecasts.
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PreprintUnderstanding interannual, decadal level variability in paralytic shellfish poisoning toxicity in the Gulf of Maine : the HAB Index( 2013-09) Anderson, Donald M. ; Couture, Darcie A. ; Kleindinst, Judith L. ; Keafer, Bruce A. ; McGillicuddy, Dennis J. ; Martin, Jennifer L. ; Richlen, Mindy L. ; Hickey, J. Michael ; Solow, Andrew R.A major goal in harmful algal bloom (HAB) research has been to identify mechanisms underlying interannual variability in bloom magnitude and impact. Here the focus is on variability in Alexandrium fundyense blooms and paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP) toxicity in Maine, USA, over 34 years (1978 – 2011). The Maine coastline was divided into two regions - eastern and western Maine, and within those two regions, three measures of PSP toxicity (the percent of stations showing detectable toxicity over the year, the cumulative amount of toxicity per station measured in all shellfish (mussel) samples during that year, and the duration of measurable toxicity) were examined for each year in the time series. These metrics were combined into a simple HAB Index that provides a single measure of annual toxin severity across each region. The three toxin metrics, as well as the HAB Index that integrates them, reveal significant variability in overall toxicity between individual years as well as long-term, decadal patterns or regimes. Based on different conceptual models of the system, we considered three trend formulations to characterize the long-term patterns in the Index – a three-phase (mean-shift) model, a linear two-phase model, and a pulse-decline model. The first represents a “regime shift” or multiple equilibria formulation as might occur with alternating periods of sustained high and low cyst abundance or favorable and unfavorable growth conditions, the second depicts a scenario of more gradual transitions in cyst abundance or growth conditions of vegetative cells, and the third characterizes a ”sawtooth” pattern in which upward shifts in toxicity are associated with major cyst recruitment events, followed by a gradual but continuous decline until the next pulse. The fitted models were compared using both residual sum of squares and Akaike’s Information Criterion. There were some differences between model fits, but none consistently gave a better fit than the others. This statistical underpinning can guide efforts to identify physical and/or biological mechanisms underlying the patterns revealed by the HAB Index. Although A. fundyense cyst survey data (limited to 9 years) do not span the entire interval of the shellfish toxicity records, this analysis leads us to hypothesize that major changes in the abundance of A. fundyense cysts may be a primary factor contributing to the decadal trends in shellfish toxicity in this region. The HAB Index approach taken here is simple but represents a novel and potentially useful tool for resource managers in many areas of the world subject to toxic HABs.
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ArticleSuppression of the 2010 Alexandrium fundyense bloom by changes in physical, biological, and chemical properties of the Gulf of Maine(Association for the Sciences of Limnology and Oceanography, 2011-11) McGillicuddy, Dennis J. ; Townsend, David W. ; He, Ruoying ; Keafer, Bruce A. ; Kleindinst, Judith L. ; Li, Y. ; Manning, James P. ; Mountain, David G. ; Thomas, Maura A. ; Anderson, Donald M.For the period 2005–2009, the abundance of resting cysts in bottom sediments from the preceding autumn was a first-order predictor of the overall severity of spring–summer blooms of Alexandrium fundyense in the western Gulf of Maine and southern New England. Cyst abundance off mid-coast Maine was significantly higher in autumn 2009 than it was preceding a major regional bloom in 2005. A seasonal ensemble forecast was computed using a range of forcing conditions for the period 2004–2009, suggesting that a large bloom was likely in the western Gulf of Maine in 2010. This did not materialize, perhaps because environmental conditions in spring–summer 2010 were not favorable for growth of A. fundyense. Water mass anomalies indicate a regional-scale change in circulation with direct influence on A. fundyense's niche. Specifically, near-surface waters were warmer, fresher, more stratified, and had lower nutrients than during the period of observations used to construct the ensemble forecast. Moreover, a weaker-than-normal coastal current lessened A. fundyense transport into the western Gulf of Maine and Massachusetts Bay. Satellite ocean color observations indicate the 2010 spring phytoplankton bloom was more intense than usual. Early season nutrient depletion may have caused a temporal mismatch with A. fundyense's endogenous clock that regulates the timing of cyst germination. These findings highlight the difficulties of ecological forecasting in a changing oceanographic environment, and underscore the need for a sustained observational network to drive such forecasts.
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PreprintPreface( 2014-02) Anderson, Donald M. ; McGillicuddy, Dennis J. ; DeGrasse, Stacey L. ; Sellner, Kevin G. ; Bricelj, V. Monica ; Turner, Jefferson T. ; Townsend, David W. ; Kleindinst, Judith L.The Gulf of Maine (GOM) is a continental shelf sea in the northwest Atlantic, USA that supports highly-productive shellfisheries that are frequently contaminated by toxigenic Alexandrium fundyense blooms and outbreaks of paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP), resulting in significant economic and social impacts. Additionally, an emerging threat to these resources is from blooms of toxic Pseudo-nitzschia species that produce domoic acid, the toxin responsible for amnesic shellfish poisoning (ASP). Nearshore shellfish toxins are monitored by state agencies, whereas most offshore stocks have had little or no routine monitoring. As a result, large areas of federal waters have been indefinitely closed or their shellfish beds underexploited because of the potential risk these toxins pose and the lack of scientific understanding and management tools. Patterns and dynamics of Alexandrium blooms and the resulting shellfish toxicity in nearshore waters were examined in a number of research projects, the largest being the Ecology and Oceanography of Harmful Algal Blooms (ECOHAB)-Gulf of Maine (GOM), a five-year regional program emphasizing field surveys, laboratory studies and numerical modeling. At the completion of the ECOHAB-GOM program (documented in Anderson et al., 2005), great progress was made in understanding A. fundyense blooms and resulting shellfish toxicity in nearshore waters, but there were major unknowns that still required investigation. For example, little was known about A. fundyense bloom dynamics in the waters south and east of Cape Cod, Massachusetts, and in particular, about the link between blooms in surface waters and toxicity in deep offshore shellfish. Large areas of offshore shellfish beds were off limits to harvest, including a 40,000 km2 region closed during the 2005 bloom and a much larger zone (~80,000 km2) including portions of Georges Bank was closed in 1990 after high levels of PSP toxicity were detected. In recent years, pressures were mounting from industry to open those offshore areas and to develop management strategies so that surfclam (Spisula solidissima), ocean quahog (Arctica islandica), and roe-on sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) fisheries could be opened. In response to these unknowns and societal needs, a new multi-investigator program, GOMTOX (Gulf of Maine Toxicity), was formulated and ultimately funded through the NOAA ECOHAB program. GOMTOX was a regional observation and modeling program that investigated the patterns and mechanisms underlying A. fundyense and Pseudo-nitzschia blooms and the resulting toxicity in shellfish in the southern GOM and its adjacent New England shelf waters, with special emphasis on the delivery pathways, mechanisms, and dynamics of offshore shellfish toxicity. The GOMTOX team of investigators included 16 principal investigators from eight institutions and, continuing in the ECOHAB-GOM tradition, strong participation from federal and state resource managers as well as representatives of the shellfish industry. This team worked together for over five years, running numerous large-scale survey cruises of Alexandrium cells and cysts, and also supporting industry cruises to collect shellfish from offshore sites including Georges Bank. Other efforts included participation in National Marine Fisheries Service surveys for shellfish (sea scallops, surfclams, and ocean quahogs), numerical modeling studies, deployment of sediment traps, and laboratory and ship-based experiments to investigate grazing and other processes that might regulate blooms and deliver toxins to shellfish in deeper waters. A smaller-scale but concurrent effort collected samples to characterize Pseudo-nitzschia species and their potential toxicity in the region.
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ArticlePfiesteria-related educational products and information resources available to the public, health officials, and researchers(National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, 2001-10) Kleindinst, Judith L. ; Anderson, Donald M.Public and political concerns about Pfiesteria from 1997 to the present vastly exceed the attention given to other harmful algal bloom (HAB) issues in the United States. To some extent, the intense focus on Pfiesteria has served to increase attention on HABs in general. Given the strong and continuing public, political, and research interests in Pfiesteria piscicida Steidinger & Burkholder and related organisms, there is a clear need for information and resources of many different types. This article provides information on Pfiesteria-related educational products and information resources available to the general public, health officials, and researchers. These resources are compiled into five categories: reports; website resources; state outreach and communication programs; fact sheets; and training manuals and documentaries. Over the last few years there has been rapid expansion in the amount of Pfiesteria-related information available, particularly on the Internet, and it is scattered among many different sources.