Longwave emission trends over Africa and implications for Atlantic hurricanes
Karnauskas, Kristopher B.
Donnelly, Jeffrey P.
MetadataShow full item record
The latitudinal gradient of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) over Africa is a skillful and physically based predictor of seasonal Atlantic hurricane activity. The African OLR gradient is observed to have strengthened during the satellite era, as predicted by state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) in response to greenhouse gas forcing. Prior to the satellite era and the U.S. and European clean air acts, the African OLR gradient weakened due to aerosol forcing of the opposite sign. GCMs predict a continuation of the increasing OLR gradient in response to greenhouse gas forcing. Assuming a steady linear relationship between African easterly waves and tropical cyclogenesis, this result suggests a future increase in Atlantic tropical cyclone frequency by 10% (20%) at the end of the 21st century under the RCP 4.5 (8.5) forcing scenario.
Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 44 (2017): 9075–9083, doi:10.1002/2017GL073869.
Suggested CitationArticle: Zhang, Lei, Rechtman, Thomas, Karnauskas, Kristopher B., Li, Laifang, Donnelly, Jeffrey P., Kossin, James, "Longwave emission trends over Africa and implications for Atlantic hurricanes", Geophysical Research Letters 44 (2017): 9075–9083, DOI:10.1002/2017GL073869, https://hdl.handle.net/1912/9289
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Reconstructing 7000 years of North Atlantic hurricane variability using deep-sea sediment cores from the western Great Bahama Bank Toomey, Michael R.; Curry, William B.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.; van Hengstum, Peter J. (John Wiley & Sons, 2013-03-14)Available overwash records from coastal barrier systems document significant variability in North Atlantic hurricane activity during the late Holocene. The same climate forcings that may have controlled cyclone activity ...
The intertropical convergence zone modulates intense hurricane strikes on the western North Atlantic margin van Hengstum, Peter J.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.; Fall, Patricia L.; Toomey, Michael R.; Albury, Nancy A.; Kakuk, Brian (Nature Publishing Group, 2016-02-24)Most Atlantic hurricanes form in the Main Development Region between 9°N to 20°N along the northern edge of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Previous research has suggested that meridional shifts in the ITCZ ...
Increased hurricane frequency near Florida during Younger Dryas Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation slowdown Toomey, Michael R.; Korty, Robert; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.; van Hengstum, Peter; Curry, William B. (2017-10)The risk posed by intensification of North Atlantic hurricane activity remains controversial, in part due to a lack of available storm proxy records that extend beyond the relatively stable climates of the late Holocene. ...