Longwave emission trends over Africa and implications for Atlantic hurricanes
Karnauskas, Kristopher B.
Donnelly, Jeffrey P.
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The latitudinal gradient of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) over Africa is a skillful and physically based predictor of seasonal Atlantic hurricane activity. The African OLR gradient is observed to have strengthened during the satellite era, as predicted by state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) in response to greenhouse gas forcing. Prior to the satellite era and the U.S. and European clean air acts, the African OLR gradient weakened due to aerosol forcing of the opposite sign. GCMs predict a continuation of the increasing OLR gradient in response to greenhouse gas forcing. Assuming a steady linear relationship between African easterly waves and tropical cyclogenesis, this result suggests a future increase in Atlantic tropical cyclone frequency by 10% (20%) at the end of the 21st century under the RCP 4.5 (8.5) forcing scenario.
Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 44 (2017): 9075–9083, doi:10.1002/2017GL073869.
Suggested CitationArticle: Zhang, Lei, Rechtman, Thomas, Karnauskas, Kristopher B., Li, Laifang, Donnelly, Jeffrey P., Kossin, James, "Longwave emission trends over Africa and implications for Atlantic hurricanes", Geophysical Research Letters 44 (2017): 9075–9083, DOI:10.1002/2017GL073869, https://hdl.handle.net/1912/9289
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