Analysis of lethal and sublethal impacts of environmental disasters on sperm whales using stochastic modeling
Chiquet, Ross A.
MetadataShow full item record
KeywordPopulation recovery; Environmental disasters; Stochastic modeling; Lethal impact; Sublethal impact; Sperm whales
Mathematical models are essential for combining data from multiple sources to quantify population endpoints. This is especially true for species, such as marine mammals, for which data on vital rates are difficult to obtain. Since the effects of an environmental disaster are not fixed, we develop time-varying (nonautonomous) matrix population models that account for the eventual recovery of the environment to the pre-disaster state. We use these models to investigate how lethal and sublethal impacts (in the form of reductions in the survival and fecundity, respectively) affect the population’s recovery process. We explore two scenarios of the environmental recovery process and include the effect of demographic stochasticity. Our results provide insights into the relationship between the magnitude of the disaster, the duration of the disaster, and the probability that the population recovers to pre-disaster levels or a biologically relevant threshold level. To illustrate this modeling methodology, we provide an application to a sperm whale population. This application was motivated by the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil rig explosion in the Gulf of Mexico that has impacted a wide variety of species populations including oysters, fish, corals, and whales.
© The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Ecotoxicology 26 (2017): 820-830, doi:10.1007/s10646-017-1813-4.
Suggested CitationArticle: Ackleh, Azmy, Chiquet, Ross A., Ma, Baoling, Tang, Tingting, Caswell, Hal, Veprauskas, Amy, Sidorovskaia, Natalia, "Analysis of lethal and sublethal impacts of environmental disasters on sperm whales using stochastic modeling", Ecotoxicology 26 (2017): 820-830, DOI:10.1007/s10646-017-1813-4, https://hdl.handle.net/1912/8981
The following license files are associated with this item:
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Effects of climate change on an emperor penguin population : analysis of coupled demographic and climate models Jenouvrier, Stephanie; Holland, Marika M.; Stroeve, Julienne; Barbraud, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri; Serreze, Mark; Caswell, Hal (2012-06-21)Sea ice conditions in the Antarctic affect the life cycle of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri). We present a population projection for the emperor penguin population of Terre Adelie, Antarctica, by linking ...
Jenouvrier, Stephanie (2013-03-27)This review focuses on the impacts of climate change on population dynamics. I introduce the MUP (Measuring, Understanding and Predicting) approach, which provides a general framework where an enhanced understanding of ...
Kravtsov, Sergey K.; Dewar, William K.; Ghil, M.; McWilliams, James C.; Berloff, Pavel S. (2007-08-08)A simple heuristic model of coupled decadal ocean–atmosphere modes in middle latitudes is developed. Previous studies have treated atmospheric intrinsic variability as a linear stochastic process modified by a deterministic ...