Response of the North Pacific tropical cyclone climatology to global warming : application of dynamical downscaling to CMIP5 models
Karnauskas, Kristopher B.
Donnelly, Jeffrey P.
Emanuel, Kerry A.
MetadataShow full item record
A downscaling approach is applied to future projection simulations from four CMIP5 global climate models to investigate the response of the tropical cyclone (TC) climatology over the North Pacific basin to global warming. Under the influence of the anthropogenic rise in greenhouse gases, TC-track density, power dissipation, and TC genesis exhibit robust increasing trends over the North Pacific, especially over the central subtropical Pacific region. The increase in North Pacific TCs is primarily manifested as increases in the intense and relatively weak TCs. Examination of storm duration also reveals that TCs over the North Pacific have longer lifetimes under global warming. Through a genesis potential index, the mechanistic contributions of various physical climate factors to the simulated change in TC genesis are explored. More frequent TC genesis under global warming is mostly attributable to the smaller vertical wind shear and greater potential intensity (primarily due to higher sea surface temperature). In contrast, the effect of the saturation deficit of the free troposphere tends to suppress TC genesis, and the change in large-scale vorticity plays a negligible role.
Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 30 (2017): 1233-1243, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0496.1.
Suggested CitationArticle: Zhang, Lei, Karnauskas, Kristopher B., Donnelly, Jeffrey P., Emanuel, Kerry A., "Response of the North Pacific tropical cyclone climatology to global warming : application of dynamical downscaling to CMIP5 models", Journal of Climate 30 (2017): 1233-1243, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0496.1, https://hdl.handle.net/1912/8895
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Lin, I.-I.; Black, Peter G.; Price, James F.; Yang, C.-Y.; Chen, Shuyi S.; Lien, C.-C.; Harr, Patrick; Chi, N.-H.; Wu, C.-C.; D'Asaro, Eric A. (John Wiley & Sons, 2013-05-15)Timely and accurate forecasts of tropical cyclones (TCs, i.e., hurricanes and typhoons) are of great importance for risk mitigation. Although in the past two decades there has been steady improvement in track prediction, ...
Solow, Andrew R.; Beet, Andrew R. (American Geophysical Union, 2008-06-03)There is some question as to whether the historical record of observed North Atlantic tropical cyclones prior to the advent of satellite coverage is complete. This question is central to understanding the historical trend ...
Tropical cyclone activity enhanced by Sahara greening and reduced dust emissions during the African Humid Period Pausata, Francesco Salvatore Rocco; Emanuel, Kerry A.; Chiacchio, Marc; Diro, Gulilat T.; Zhang, Qiong; Sushama, Laxmi; Stager, J. Curt; Donnelly, Jeffrey P. (2017-05)Tropical cyclones (TCs) can have devastating socioeconomic impacts. Understanding the nature and causes of their variability is of paramount importance for society. However, historical records of TCs are too short to ...