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    Response of the North Pacific tropical cyclone climatology to global warming : application of dynamical downscaling to CMIP5 models

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    jcli-d-16-0496.1.pdf (2.250Mb)
    Date
    2017-02-01
    Author
    Zhang, Lei  Concept link
    Karnauskas, Kristopher B.  Concept link
    Donnelly, Jeffrey P.  Concept link
    Emanuel, Kerry A.  Concept link
    Metadata
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    Citable URI
    https://hdl.handle.net/1912/8895
    As published
    https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0496.1
    DOI
    10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0496.1
    Keyword
    Tropical cyclones
    Abstract
    A downscaling approach is applied to future projection simulations from four CMIP5 global climate models to investigate the response of the tropical cyclone (TC) climatology over the North Pacific basin to global warming. Under the influence of the anthropogenic rise in greenhouse gases, TC-track density, power dissipation, and TC genesis exhibit robust increasing trends over the North Pacific, especially over the central subtropical Pacific region. The increase in North Pacific TCs is primarily manifested as increases in the intense and relatively weak TCs. Examination of storm duration also reveals that TCs over the North Pacific have longer lifetimes under global warming. Through a genesis potential index, the mechanistic contributions of various physical climate factors to the simulated change in TC genesis are explored. More frequent TC genesis under global warming is mostly attributable to the smaller vertical wind shear and greater potential intensity (primarily due to higher sea surface temperature). In contrast, the effect of the saturation deficit of the free troposphere tends to suppress TC genesis, and the change in large-scale vorticity plays a negligible role.
    Description
    Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 30 (2017): 1233-1243, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0496.1.
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    • Geology and Geophysics (G&G)
    Suggested Citation
    Journal of Climate 30 (2017): 1233-1243
     

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