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dc.contributor.authorYoungflesh, Casey  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorJenouvrier, Stephanie  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorLi, Yun  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorJi, Rubio  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorAinley, David G.  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorBallard, Grant  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorBarbraud, Christophe  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorDelord, Karine  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorDugger, Katie M.  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorEmmerson, Louise M.  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorFraser, William R.  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorHinke, Jefferson T.  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorLyver, Philip O'B.  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorOlmastroni, Silvia  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorSouthwell, Colin J.  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorTrivelpiece, Susan G.  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorTrivelpiece, Wayne Z.  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorLynch, Heather J.  Concept link
dc.date.accessioned2017-04-11T20:16:58Z
dc.date.available2017-04-11T20:16:58Z
dc.date.issued2017-03-20
dc.identifier.citationEcology 98 (2017): 940-951en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1912/8890
dc.descriptionAuthor Posting. © Ecological Society of America, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of Ecological Society of America for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Ecology 98 (2017): 940-951, doi:10.1002/ecy.1749.en_US
dc.description.abstractEvidence of climate-change-driven shifts in plant and animal phenology have raised concerns that certain trophic interactions may be increasingly mismatched in time, resulting in declines in reproductive success. Given the constraints imposed by extreme seasonality at high latitudes and the rapid shifts in phenology seen in the Arctic, we would also expect Antarctic species to be highly vulnerable to climate-change-driven phenological mismatches with their environment. However, few studies have assessed the impacts of phenological change in Antarctica. Using the largest database of phytoplankton phenology, sea-ice phenology, and Adélie Penguin breeding phenology and breeding success assembled to date, we find that, while a temporal match between Penguin breeding phenology and optimal environmental conditions sets an upper limit on breeding success, only a weak relationship to the mean exists. Despite previous work suggesting that divergent trends in Adélie Penguin breeding phenology are apparent across the Antarctic continent, we find no such trends. Furthermore, we find no trend in the magnitude of phenological mismatch, suggesting that mismatch is driven by interannual variability in environmental conditions rather than climate-change-driven trends, as observed in other systems. We propose several criteria necessary for a species to experience a strong climate-change-driven phenological mismatch, of which several may be violated by this system.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipFunding to H. J. Lynch and C. Youngflesh was provided by the National Science Foundation Grant OPP/GSS 1255058, to S. Jenouvrier, H. J. Lynch, C. Youngflesh, Y. Li, and R. Ji by the National Science Foundation Grant 1341474, to S. Jenouvrier, Y. Li, and R. Ji by NASA grant NNX14AH74G, to D. G. Ainley, G. Ballard, and K. M. Dugger by the National Science Foundation Grants OPP 9526865, 9814882, 0125608, 0944411 and 0440643, to P. O’B. Lyver by New Zealand’s Ministry of Business, Innovation, and Employment Grants C09X0510 and C01X1001, and Ministry of Primary Industry grants with logistic support from Antarctica New Zealand.en_US
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.publisherJohn Wiley & Sonsen_US
dc.relation.urihttps://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.1749
dc.subjectAnna Karenina Principleen_US
dc.subjectAntarcticaen_US
dc.subjectAsynchronyen_US
dc.subjectBayesian hierarchical modelen_US
dc.subjectClimate changeen_US
dc.subjectPhenologyen_US
dc.subjectPygoscelis adeliaeen_US
dc.subjectQuantile regressionen_US
dc.titleCircumpolar analysis of the Adélie Penguin reveals the importance of environmental variability in phenological mismatchen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/ecy.1749


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