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    Circumpolar analysis of the Adélie Penguin reveals the importance of environmental variability in phenological mismatch

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    Article (973.4Kb)
    Appendix S1 (200.5Kb)
    Appendix S2 (253.7Kb)
    Appendix S3 (259.9Kb)
    Appendix S4 (142.9Kb)
    Appendix S5 (160.4Kb)
    Date
    2017-03-20
    Author
    Youngflesh, Casey  Concept link
    Jenouvrier, Stephanie  Concept link
    Li, Yun  Concept link
    Ji, Rubio  Concept link
    Ainley, David G.  Concept link
    Ballard, Grant  Concept link
    Barbraud, Christophe  Concept link
    Delord, Karine  Concept link
    Dugger, Katie M.  Concept link
    Emmerson, Louise M.  Concept link
    Fraser, William R.  Concept link
    Hinke, Jefferson T.  Concept link
    Lyver, Philip O'B.  Concept link
    Olmastroni, Silvia  Concept link
    Southwell, Colin J.  Concept link
    Trivelpiece, Susan G.  Concept link
    Trivelpiece, Wayne Z.  Concept link
    Lynch, Heather J.  Concept link
    Metadata
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    Citable URI
    https://hdl.handle.net/1912/8890
    As published
    https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.1749
    DOI
    10.1002/ecy.1749
    Keyword
     Anna Karenina Principle; Antarctica; Asynchrony; Bayesian hierarchical model; Climate change; Phenology; Pygoscelis adeliae; Quantile regression 
    Abstract
    Evidence of climate-change-driven shifts in plant and animal phenology have raised concerns that certain trophic interactions may be increasingly mismatched in time, resulting in declines in reproductive success. Given the constraints imposed by extreme seasonality at high latitudes and the rapid shifts in phenology seen in the Arctic, we would also expect Antarctic species to be highly vulnerable to climate-change-driven phenological mismatches with their environment. However, few studies have assessed the impacts of phenological change in Antarctica. Using the largest database of phytoplankton phenology, sea-ice phenology, and Adélie Penguin breeding phenology and breeding success assembled to date, we find that, while a temporal match between Penguin breeding phenology and optimal environmental conditions sets an upper limit on breeding success, only a weak relationship to the mean exists. Despite previous work suggesting that divergent trends in Adélie Penguin breeding phenology are apparent across the Antarctic continent, we find no such trends. Furthermore, we find no trend in the magnitude of phenological mismatch, suggesting that mismatch is driven by interannual variability in environmental conditions rather than climate-change-driven trends, as observed in other systems. We propose several criteria necessary for a species to experience a strong climate-change-driven phenological mismatch, of which several may be violated by this system.
    Description
    Author Posting. © Ecological Society of America, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of Ecological Society of America for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Ecology 98 (2017): 940-951, doi:10.1002/ecy.1749.
    Collections
    • Biology
    Suggested Citation
    Ecology 98 (2017): 940-951
     

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