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    Evaluation of dynamic coastal response to sea-level rise modifies inundation likelihood

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    Date
    2016-02
    Author
    Lentz, Erika E.  Concept link
    Thieler, E. Robert  Concept link
    Plant, Nathaniel G.  Concept link
    Stippa, Sawyer R.  Concept link
    Horton, Radley M.  Concept link
    Gesch, Dean B.  Concept link
    Metadata
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    Citable URI
    https://hdl.handle.net/1912/8260
    As published
    https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2957
    Related Material/Data
    http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2014/1252/
    Abstract
    Sea-level rise (SLR) poses a range of threats to natural and built environments1, 2, making assessments of SLR-induced hazards essential for informed decision-making3. We develop a probabilistic model that evaluates the likelihood that an area will inundate (flood) or dynamically respond (adapt) to SLR. The broad-area applicability of the approach is demonstrated by producing 30x30 m resolution predictions for more than 38,000 km2 of diverse coastal landscape in the northeastern United States (U.S.). Probabilistic SLR projections, coastal elevation, and vertical land movement are used to estimate likely future inundation levels. Then, conditioned on future inundation levels and the current land-cover type, we evaluate the likelihood of dynamic response vs. inundation. We find that nearly 70% of this coastal landscape has some capacity to respond dynamically to SLR, and we show that inundation models over-predict land likely to submerge. This approach is well-suited to guiding coastal resource management decisions that weigh future SLR impacts and uncertainty against ecological targets and economic constraints.
    Description
    Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2016. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Nature Publishing Group for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Nature Climate Change 6 (2016): 696–700, doi:10.1038/nclimate2957.
    Collections
    • Coastal and Shelf Geology
    Suggested Citation
    Preprint: Lentz, Erika E., Thieler, E. Robert, Plant, Nathaniel G., Stippa, Sawyer R., Horton, Radley M., Gesch, Dean B., "Evaluation of dynamic coastal response to sea-level rise modifies inundation likelihood", 2016-02, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2957, https://hdl.handle.net/1912/8260
     
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