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    How did ocean warming affect Australian rainfall extremes during the 2010/2011 La Niña event?

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    Article (3.686Mb)
    Supporting information (7.388Mb)
    Date
    2015-11-19
    Author
    Ummenhofer, Caroline C.  Concept link
    Sen Gupta, Alexander  Concept link
    England, Matthew H.  Concept link
    Taschetto, Andrea S.  Concept link
    Briggs, Peter R.  Concept link
    Raupach, Michael R.  Concept link
    Metadata
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    Citable URI
    https://hdl.handle.net/1912/7800
    As published
    https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL065948
    DOI
    10.1002/2015GL065948
    Keyword
     Ocean warming; Precipitation;extremes; Australia; Attribution; La Nina 
    Abstract
    Extreme rainfall conditions in Australia during the 2010/2011 La Niña resulted in devastating floods claiming 35 lives, causing billions of dollars in damages, and far-reaching impacts on global climate, including a significant drop in global sea level and record terrestrial carbon uptake. Northeast Australian 2010/2011 rainfall was 84% above average, unusual even for a strong La Niña, and soil moisture conditions were unprecedented since 1950. Here we demonstrate that the warmer background state increased the likelihood of the extreme rainfall response. Using atmospheric general circulation model experiments with 2010/2011 ocean conditions with and without long-term warming, we identify the mechanisms that increase the likelihood of extreme rainfall: additional ocean warming enhanced onshore moisture transport onto Australia and ascent and precipitation over the northeast. Our results highlight the role of long-term ocean warming for modifying rain-producing atmospheric circulation conditions, increasing the likelihood of extreme precipitation for Australia during future La Niña events.
    Description
    Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 42 (2015): 9942–9951, doi:10.1002/2015GL065948.
    Collections
    • Physical Oceanography (PO)
    Suggested Citation
    Geophysical Research Letters 42 (2015): 9942–9951
     

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