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dc.contributor.authorHauck, Judith  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorVolker, Chrisoph  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorWolf-Gladrow, D. A.  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorLaufkötter, Charlotte  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorVogt, Meike  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorAumont, Olivier  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorBopp, Laurent  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorBuitenhuis, Erik T.  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorDoney, Scott C.  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorDunne, John P.  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorGruber, Nicolas  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorHashioka, Taketo  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorJohn, Jasmin G.  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorLe Quere, Corinne  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorLima, Ivan D.  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorNakano, Hideyuki  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorSeferian, Roland  Concept link
dc.contributor.authorTotterdell, Ian J.  Concept link
dc.identifier.citationGlobal Biogeochemical Cycles 29 (2015): 1451–1470en_US
dc.description© The Author(s), 2015. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 29 (2015): 1451–1470, doi:10.1002/2015GB005140.en_US
dc.description.abstractWe use a suite of eight ocean biogeochemical/ecological general circulation models from the Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archives to explore the relative roles of changes in winds (positive trend of Southern Annular Mode, SAM) and in warming- and freshening-driven trends of upper ocean stratification in altering export production and CO2 uptake in the Southern Ocean at the end of the 21st century. The investigated models simulate a broad range of responses to climate change, with no agreement on a dominance of either the SAM or the warming signal south of 44°S. In the southernmost zone, i.e., south of 58°S, they concur on an increase of biological export production, while between 44 and 58°S the models lack consensus on the sign of change in export. Yet in both regions, the models show an enhanced CO2 uptake during spring and summer. This is due to a larger CO2(aq) drawdown by the same amount of summer export production at a higher Revelle factor at the end of the 21st century. This strongly increases the importance of the biological carbon pump in the entire Southern Ocean. In the temperate zone, between 30 and 44°S, all models show a predominance of the warming signal and a nutrient-driven reduction of export production. As a consequence, the share of the regions south of 44°S to the total uptake of the Southern Ocean south of 30°S is projected to increase at the end of the 21st century from 47 to 66% with a commensurable decrease to the north. Despite this major reorganization of the meridional distribution of the major regions of uptake, the total uptake increases largely in line with the rising atmospheric CO2. Simulations with the MITgcm-REcoM2 model show that this is mostly driven by the strong increase of atmospheric CO2, with the climate-driven changes of natural CO2 exchange offsetting that trend only to a limited degree (∼10%) and with negligible impact of climate effects on anthropogenic CO2 uptake when integrated over a full annual cycle south of 30°S.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipCARBOCHANGE Grant Number: 264879; Palmer LTER Project Grant Number: NSF PLR-1440435en_US
dc.publisherJohn Wiley & Sonsen_US
dc.rightsAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International*
dc.subjectOcean carbon sinken_US
dc.subjectExport productionen_US
dc.subjectSouthern Annular Modeen_US
dc.subjectPolar carbon cycleen_US
dc.subjectEcosystem model intercomparisonen_US
dc.titleOn the Southern Ocean CO2 uptake and the role of the biological carbon pump in the 21st centuryen_US

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