Winter-to-summer precipitation phasing in southwestern North America : a multicentury perspective from paleoclimatic model-data comparisons
Smerdon, Jason E.
Cook, Benjamin I.
MetadataShow full item record
The phasing of winter-to-summer precipitation anomalies in the North American monsoon (NAM) region 2 (113.25°W–107.75°W, 30°N–35.25°N—NAM2) of southwestern North America is analyzed in fully coupled simulations of the Last Millennium and compared to tree ring reconstructed winter and summer precipitation variability. The models simulate periods with in-phase seasonal precipitation anomalies, but the strength of this relationship is variable on multidecadal time scales, behavior that is also exhibited by the reconstructions. The models, however, are unable to simulate periods with consistently out-of-phase winter-to-summer precipitation anomalies as observed in the latter part of the instrumental interval. The periods with predominantly in-phase winter-to-summer precipitation anomalies in the models are significant against randomness, and while this result is suggestive of a potential for dual-season drought on interannual and longer time scales, models do not consistently exhibit the persistent dual-season drought seen in the dendroclimatic reconstructions. These collective findings indicate that model-derived drought risk assessments may underestimate the potential for dual-season drought in 21st century projections of hydroclimate in the American Southwest and parts of Mexico.
Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 120 (2015): 8052–8064, doi:10.1002/2015JD023085.
Suggested CitationArticle: Coats, Sloan, Smerdon, Jason E., Seager, Richard, Griffin, Daniel, Cook, Benjamin I., "Winter-to-summer precipitation phasing in southwestern North America : a multicentury perspective from paleoclimatic model-data comparisons", Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 120 (2015): 8052–8064, DOI:10.1002/2015JD023085, https://hdl.handle.net/1912/7633
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
The metabolic response of thecosome pteropods from the North Atlantic and North Pacific oceans to high CO2 and low O2 Maas, Amy E.; Lawson, Gareth L.; Wang, Zhaohui Aleck (Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union, 2016-11-17)As anthropogenic activities directly and indirectly increase carbon dioxide (CO2) and decrease oxygen (O2) concentrations in the ocean system, it becomes important to understand how different populations of marine animals ...
Keigwin, Lloyd D.; Cook, Mea S. (American Geophysical Union, 2007-07-11)A simple ocean/atmosphere feedback may reduce the amplitude of climate variability in around the North Atlantic during interglacial compared to glacial states. When climate is warm in the North Atlantic region, the ...
Changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation influence CO2 uptake in the North Atlantic over the past 2 decades Thomas, Helmuth; Prowe, A. E. Friederike; Lima, Ivan D.; Doney, Scott C.; Wanninkhof, Rik; Greatbatch, Richard J.; Schuster, Ute; Corbiere, Antoine (American Geophysical Union, 2008-12-31)Observational studies report a rapid decline of ocean CO2 uptake in the temperate North Atlantic during the last decade. We analyze these findings using ocean physical-biological numerical simulations forced with interannually ...